Barclays 2015 Global Financial Services
Transcript of Barclays 2015 Global Financial Services
The Allstate Corporation
Barclays Global Financial Services Conference September 17, 2015
®
Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Information
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information. Additional information on factors that
could cause results to differ materially from those projected in this presentation is available in the 2014 Form 10-K,
in our most recent earnings release, and at the end of these slides. These materials are available on our website,
allstateinvestors.com, under the “Quarterly Investor Info” link.
This presentation also contains some non-GAAP measures. You can find the reconciliation of those measures to
GAAP measures within our most recent earnings release and investor supplement. These materials are available
on our website, allstateinvestors.com, under the “Quarterly Investor Info” link.
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Competitively differentiated strategy based on:
• Diversified portfolio of businesses
• Customer segmentation
• Competitively differentiated products and services
Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance and investments
• Auto, homeowners, other personal lines, life insurance, and workplace benefits
• Investment grade fixed income and performance-based equity portfolio
Growth by offering unique customer value propositions and expanding the product portfolio and geographic footprint
Proactive approach to risk and return
More than $9 billion in cash returned to common shareholders since 2011
Nation’s largest publicly held personal lines insurer, serving 16 million households
Three year total shareholder return of 55% vs. S&P 500 of 43%
We Are The Good Hands®
Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 17, 2015
Allstate is an Attractive Investment Opportunity
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Brand
Neutral
Self-
Serve
Local Advice
and Assistance
Brand
Sensitive
Deliver the Best Value to Each Customer Segment by Offering Unique Products and Services at a Competitive Price
Pricing Sophistication, Analytics and Risk Management
Product and Service Breadth and Innovation
Differentiated Value Propositions for each Consumer Segment
Claims Capabilities and Technology
Key Capabilities Across All Customer Segments
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Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 17, 2015
Diversified Portfolio of Businesses
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Allstate Brand Auto
Allstate Brand Home
Property-Liability
Net Investment
Income
Allstate Financial
Operating Income
Sources of Operating Income(1) at YE 2014 ($2.4B)
Allstate Brand Auto
− Attractive returns on capital
− Sophisticated pricing
− Claim settlement capabilities
− Drivewise® telematics offering
Allstate Brand Homeowners
− Target customers prefer to bundle products; improves auto retention
− Attractive returns on capital more than compensate for volatility
Allstate Financial
− Life Insurance – good returns and potential
− Workplace Benefits ( 3.3M policies) - attractive growth and returns
− Managing annuity block returns through investment portfolio allocation
Allstate Investments
− Proactive approach to risk and return
(1) Allstate Brand Auto and Homeowners = after-tax underwriting income, Allstate Financial = Operating Income, Property Liability Net Investment Income is after-tax. Not included in chart: Other Property-Liability businesses account for an after-tax underwriting loss of $131M, and Corporate accounts for an operating loss of $312M
Allstate Brand Auto
Allstate Brand Home
Esurance Encompass
Other Allstate Brand
AF Premiums & Contract
Charges
Net Investment
Income
Realized Capital
Gains and Losses
Sources of Revenue at Year-End 2014 ($35.2B)
Auto Profitability Decreased in 2015 and Profit Improvement Plan Underway
(1) Allstate Brand Auto results prior to 2011 are not adjusted for DAC accounting change adopted in 2012. Industry combined ratio result is presented on a statutory basis. Competitor results sourced from SNL and financial disclosures. Progressive combined ratio = personal lines. Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 17, 2015
Allstate brand auto combined ratio through the first half of 2015 is above its long-term performance range
− Higher frequency of auto accidents
− Average severities have also increased
Higher auto frequency largely driven by external factors
− Increases in frequency have been observed broadly across geographies, segments, rating plans and customer tenure
− Miles driven increased significantly beginning in late 2014
− Growth in new business has negatively impacted loss results, but in line with expectations
Severity increasing slightly above general inflation rates
− New car complexity
− Older model year cars result in higher total loss frequency
− Slight increase in settlement times due to increased volumes
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85
90
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100
105
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 1512MMAllstate Progressive GEICO Industry
(CR)
Allstate Brand Auto Combined Ratio1
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 '15
Annualized Average Premium Annualized Avg Underlying Loss & Expense
Allstate Brand Auto 12MM Underlying Margin Trend
Price increases have largely tracked with cost increases until Q1 2015
Actions to Improve Auto Returns in Place Across All Three Underwriting Brands
Fifteen local Market Operating Committees responding with a multifaceted approach: increasing pricing, tightening underwriting standards and reducing expenses
Allstate brand auto:
− Price increases approved in 40 states, for a total brand written premium impact of 1.9% in the first six months of 2015
− Leveraging data and analytics to target local market, segment-specific rate and underwriting actions
− Reducing claims settlement time
− Expense reductions across the company
− Shifting growth focus from auto insurance to homeowners and other property insurance
Esurance:
− Increasing prices and tightening underwriting in underperforming states
− Price increases approved in 24 states for a total brand written premium impact of 2.8% in the first six months of 2015
− Lowered advertising investments
− Policy growth has slowed from 12.6% in Q4 2014 to 6.4% in Q2 2015; flat on a sequential quarter basis
Encompass:
− Accelerating price increases and underwriting actions
− Price increases approved in 17 states for a total brand written premium impact of 6.1% in the first six months of 2015
− Building comparative rater processes to support timely competitive price adjustments
− Policies in force have declined by 2.8% in 2015
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(1) Allstate Brand Homeowners results prior to 2011 are not adjusted for DAC accounting change adopted in 2012 Average gross premium excludes Canada in 2011 an prior
Allstate Brand Homeowners a Competitive Advantage
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Repositioned homeowners business to adapt to dramatic increase in severe weather in 2008
− Average gross premium increased over 30% from 2008 – 2015 and over 40% from 2005 - 2014
− Reduced size of the business by ~25% (2 million policies) from peak in 2006 through bottom in Q1 2014
− Significant shift to $1,000 and higher base deductibles
− House & Home® product, which appropriately prices roofing losses, accounts for 20% of total Allstate brand homeowner premium
− Cumulative underwriting income of $3.7B from 2012 – Q2 2015, which includes $4.5B of catastrophe losses
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 15 12MM
Average gross premium $799 $832 $850 $861 $883 $943 $999 $1,074 $1,115 $1,140 $1,146
Catastrophe losses ($B) $4.1 $0.6 $1.1 $2.7 $1.6 $1.8 $2.9 $1.4 $1.0 $1.4 $1.2
Underwriting income ($B) ($1.9) $1.4 $0.5 ($1.1) ($0.1) ($0.3) ($1.3) $0.7 $1.4 $1.1 $1.4
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140
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 1512MM
(CR)
Allstate Brand Homeowners Combined Ratio1
Severe weather
Individual Asset Performance
Proactive Investment Approach Balances Risk and Return
Market-Based Core (~85%)
• Largely investment-grade fixed income and passive equity
• Predictable earnings and cash flows
• Highly diversified and liquid
• Low cost structure
• Sophisticated research and analytics
Market-Based Active (~8%)
• Actively managed public market strategies
• Takes advantage of market presence and short-term opportunities
Performance-Based Long-Term (~6%)
• Long-term idiosyncratic investments in private markets
• Invest with best-in-class partners
− Limited partnerships
− Co-investments
− Direct
Performance–Based Opportunistic (< 1%)
• Leverage investment expertise and research
• Investments in both public and private markets
• Liquidity and duration likely to be between market-based and performance-based investments
Market Performance
Less
Tra
din
g A
ctiv
ity
Mo
re Tradin
g Activity
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Source of Investment Return ($79B portfolio at Q2 2015)
Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 17, 2015
Investing in Sustainable Value Creation: Allstate Drivewise®
Allstate Drivewise®, originally launched in 2010 is now available in 47 states
The Drivewise® Mobile app is now available nation-wide
− Enhances pricing accuracy through use of telematics data
− Establishes a platform for greater consumer connectivity
− Reinforces safe driving behaviors by providing information and rewarding customers through lower prices
− Encourages participation through Allstate Rewards program
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Drivewise® Mobile helps drivers better use the one
hour per day they spend in their car
Feedback to Customer on Where and When Incidents Occurred
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“Incident Free” Commute to Work Incidents Captured and Marked on Map
Do Not Try This At Home!
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Allstate is an Attractive Investment Opportunity
Barclays Global Financial Services Conference: September 17, 2015
(1) There were five dividend payments in 2012 12
Competitively differentiated strategy based on:
• Diversified portfolio of businesses
• Customer segmentation
• Competitively differentiated products and services
Attractive long-term returns generated from insurance and investments
• Auto, homeowners, other personal lines, life insurance, and workplace benefits
• Investment grade fixed income and performance-based equity portfolio
Growth by offering unique customer value propositions and expanding the product portfolio and geographic footprint
Proactive approach to risk and return
Long history of cash returns to shareholders
(1)
2.9% 3.1% 1.5% 1.8% 0.9%
6.3% 5.2% 7.9% 8.9%
5.5%
9.2% 8.3%
9.4%
10.7%
6.4%
2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD Q2 '15
Common DividendsCommon Share Repurchases
Total Cash Return per Common Share
533
501
479
449
418 402
300
350
400
450
500
550
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q2 15
25% decline since 2010
Period-End Common Shares Outstanding
Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains “forward-looking statements” that anticipate results based on our estimates, assumptions and plans that are subject to uncertainty. These statements are made subject to the safe-harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and may be identified by their use of words like “plans,” “seeks,” “expects,” “will,” “should,” “anticipates,” “estimates,” “intends,” “believes,” “likely,” “targets” and other words with similar meanings. We believe these statements are based on reasonable estimates, assumptions and plans. However, if the estimates, assumptions or plans underlying the forward-looking statements prove inaccurate or if other risks or uncertainties arise, actual results could differ materially from those communicated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking statements include risks related to: (1) adverse changes in the nature and level of catastrophes and severe weather events; (2) impacts of catastrophe management strategy on premium growth; (3) regulatory changes, including limitations on rate increases and requirements to underwrite business and participate in loss sharing arrangements; (4) market convergence and regulatory changes on our risk segmentation and pricing; (5) the cyclical nature of the property and casualty business; (6) unexpected increases in the severity or frequency of claims; (7) reestimates of reserves for claims; (8) adverse legal determinations regarding discontinued product lines and other legal and regulatory actions; (9) changes in underwriting and actual experience; (10) the influence of changes in market interest rates on spread-based products; (11) changes in estimates of profitability on interest-sensitive life products; (12) reducing our concentration in spread-based business and exiting certain distribution channels; (13) changes in tax laws; (14) our ability to mitigate the capital impact associated with statutory reserving requirements; (15) compliance and operational issues relating to dispositions and acquisitions of businesses; (16) market risk and declines in credit quality relating to our investment portfolio; (17) our subjective determination of the fair value of our fixed income and equity securities and the amount of realized capital losses recorded for impairments of our investments; (18) competition in the insurance industry; (19) conditions in the global economy and capital markets; (20) losses from legal and regulatory actions; (21) restrictive regulation and regulatory reforms; (22) the availability of reinsurance at current levels and prices; (23) credit risk of our reinsurers; (24) a downgrade in our financial strength ratings; (25) the effect of adverse capital and credit market conditions; (26) failure in cyber or other information security systems; (27) the impact of a large scale pandemic, the threat of terrorism or military action; (28) possible impairments in the value of goodwill; (29) changes in accounting standards; (30) the realization of deferred tax assets; (31) restrictions on our subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends; (32) restrictions under the terms of certain of our securities on our ability to pay dividends or repurchase our stock; (33) changing climate conditions; (34) loss of key vendor relationships or failure of a vendor to protect confidential information; and (35) failure to protect intellectual property. Additional information concerning these and other factors may be found in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the “Risk Factors” section in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and we assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement.
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