Bannock Development Corporation Annual Economic …€¦ · Bannock Development Corporation Annual...
Transcript of Bannock Development Corporation Annual Economic …€¦ · Bannock Development Corporation Annual...
Bannock Development CorporationAnnual Economic Symposium
Economic OverviewSeptember 9, 2015
Overview
• National Economic Conditions
• Idaho Economic Conditions
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
National Economic Conditions
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
How long will interest rates stay so low?...
It’s up to the Fed
National Job Growth Improving
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8.7 Million Jobs Lost
11.9 Million
Jobs Recovered
Pa
yro
ll C
ha
ng
e 0
00
’s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Utah Department of Workforce Services
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
5.1% in Aug
Consumer Confidence is Rising, but Not Robust
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
Fe
b 2
012
Au
g 2
01
2
Fe
b 2
013
Au
g 2
01
3
Fe
b 2
014
Au
g 2
01
4
Fe
b 2
015
Au
g 2
01
5
Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board
Consumption Drives Growth
-5%
0%
5%
2012 2013 2014
Fixed Investment
Inventories
Net Exports
Government
Personal Consumption
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o G
DP
Gro
wth
2015
Total GDP Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth in Consumer Spending Remains Low
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change
Inflation Remains Very Low
Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Ju
l 2
011
Oct
20
11
Jan
201
2
Ap
r 2
01
2
Ju
l 2
012
Oct
20
12
Ja
n 2
01
3
Ap
r 2
01
3
Ju
l 2
013
Oct
20
13
Jan
201
4
Ap
r 2
01
4
Ju
l 2
014
Oct
20
14
Jan
201
5
Ap
r 2
01
5
Ju
l 2
015
US Dollar Compared to Chinese YuanInverted Scale
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
$7.50
$8.00
$8.50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2001China joins WTO 2005
China allows
the yuanto rise
2008China
stops the yuan’s
rise
2010China allows
the yuanto rise
Aug 2015China
devalues the yuan
by largest
amount in 20 years
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration and Quotenet.com
Oil Prices Show Volatility After Recent Lows$
Pe
r B
arr
el
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
Sep
-13
Oct-
13
No
v-1
3
Dec-1
3
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
Oct-
14
No
v-1
4
Dec-1
4
Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ap
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
West Texas Intermediate
$38
$108
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
Oil Prices Rising But Still Below Long Term Trend$
Pe
r B
arr
el
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.002
00
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
$108
$38
Sources: Baker Hughes
Active U.S. Oil Rigs
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,2002
00
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
1,931
868
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Effective Fed Rate
30 Year Fixed Mortgage
CPI Year Over Change Rate - Unadjusted
30 Year Mortgage Rate, Fed Rate and CPI
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve and National Bureau of Labor Statistics
$0 $0 $0
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec
4 moves
25 bps
2 moves
25 bps
Median FOMC Forecast
0.25%
1.875%
2015
Federal Funds Rate Outlook
Source: Source: American Bankers Association Analysis of Data from the Federal Reserve
0.625%
2016
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
How long will interest rates stay so low?...
Emotion vsFundamentals
Utah is One of the Fastest Growing
States in the CountryPercent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013
U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
NM
0.1%
UT
1.6%
AZ
1.2%
CA
0.9%
NV
1.3%
OR
0.8%
TX
1.5%
OK
0.9%
CO
1.5%
WA
1.1%
ID
1.0%
MT
1.0%
WY
1.0%
ND
3.1%
SD
1.3%
MN
0.8%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.5%
WI
0.3%
IL
0.1%IN
0.5%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.2%
TN 0.6%
KY 0.4%
MS
0.2%AL
0.3%
GA
0.8%
SC
1.1%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.9%
WV
-0.1%
PA
0.1%
NY
0.4%
ME
-0.01%
AK
0.7%
HI
1.0%
MA
0.7%
VT
0.1%
NH
0.1%
RI
0.1%
CT
0.1%
NJ
0.4%
DE
0.9%
MD
0.7%
MI
0.1%
.075% to 1.10%
0.5% to 0.9%
DC
2.1%
1.15% or more
0% to 0.4%
KS
0.3%
Idaho Economic Conditions
Idaho Population 8th Fastest Growing in U.S.
Percent Change: 2013 to 2014U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Source: U.S Census Bureau
Population Loss
0.7% to 0.9% (at or above U.S. rate)
0.4% to 0.6%
1.0% or more
0.0% to 0.3%
NM
-0.1%
UT
1.4%
AZ
1.5%
CA
1.0%
NV
1.7%
OR
1.1%
TX
1.7%
OK
0.6%
CO
1.6%
WA
1.3%
ID
1.3%
MT
0.9%
WY
0.2%
ND
2.2%
SD
0.9%
MN
0.6%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.5%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.4%
WI
0.3%
IL
-0.1%IN
0.4%
OH
0.2%
FL
1.5%
TN 0.8%
KY 0.3%
MS
0.1%AL
0.3%
GA
1.0%
SC
1.3%
NC 1.0%
VA
0.7%
WV
-0.2%
PA
0.0%
NY
0.3%
ME
0.1%
AK
-0.1%
HI
0.8%
MA
0.5%
VT
0.0%
NH
0.3%
RI
0.2%
CT
-0.1%
NJ
0.3%
DE
1.1%
MD
0.6%
MI
0.1%
DC
1.5%
KS
0.3%
Idaho PopulationGrowth Rates
By County2013 to 2014
State Average = 1.3%
Increase of 0.4% to 0.8%
Increase of 0.0% to 0.3%
Increase of 1.4% or Greater
Increase of 0.9% to 1.3%
Population Loss
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Jerome
0.9%
Jefferson
0.6%
Idaho
0.1%
Gooding
-0.2%
Gem
1.0%
Fremont
-0.3%
Franklin
1.3%
Elmore
-0.2%
Custer
-2.2%
Clearwater
-0.5%
Washington
0.7% Clark
0.7%
Valley
2.5%
Cassia
0.8%
Twin Falls
1.3%
Caribou
0.1%
Teton
0.4%Canyon
2.1%
Shoshone
-2.3%
Camas
0.0%
Power
-1.0%
Butte
-0.2%
Payette
1.1%
Boundary
1.0%
Owyhee
-0.6%
Bonneville
1.0%
Bonner
2.2%
Nez Perce
0.2%
Boise
1.2%
Minidoka
0.1%
Blaine
0.8%
Madison
1.2%
Bingham
-0.3%Lincoln
0.2%
Benewah
0.8%
Lewis
0.3%
Bear Lake
0.3%
Lemhi
0.0%
Bannock
0.0%
Latah
0.5%
Adams
0.8%
Kootenai
2.1%
Ada
2.3%
Oneida
-2.0%
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,0001
98
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population
11,317
9,389
1,634,464
Idaho Population and Components of Change
Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
To
tal
Po
pu
lati
on
Co
mp
on
en
ts o
f Po
pu
latio
n C
ha
ng
e
Idaho Employment 8th Highest in the Country
Percent Change in Employment for States: July 2014 to July 2015U.S. Rate = 2.1%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM
0.5%
UT
4.4%
AZ
2.1%
CA
3.2%
NV
3.7%
OR
3.2%
TX
2.3%
OK
0.6%
CO
2.0%
WA
3.3%
ID
2.7%
MT
0.7%
WY
0.2%
ND
-0.6%
SD
2.1%
MN
0.9%
NE
0.2%
KS
0.4%
IA
2.0%
MO
1.4%
AR
2.4%
LA
0.4%
WI
1.6%
IL
0.9%IN
2.1%
OH
1.1%
FL
3.5%
TN 1.9%
KY1.6%
MS
1.4%
AL
1.4%
GA
2.1%
SC
2.8%
NC 2.7%
VA
1.1%
WV
-2.5%
PA
1.1%
NY
1.8%
ME
0.7%
AK
0.0%
HI
1.2%
MA
2.0%
VT
1.5%
NH
1.2%
RI
1.3%
CT
1.8%
NJ
0.5%
DE
1.7%
MD
2.1%
MI
2.3%
DC
1.9%
0.7% and below
2.1% to 2.6% (at or above the U.S. rate)
1.3% to 2.0%
2.7% or more
0.8% to 1.2%
Top States for Employment GrowthJuly 2014 vs. July 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Top 10 July 2014 July 2015 Ranking
1. North Dakota 49th
2. Nevada 2nd
3. Utah 1st
4. Texas 11th
5. Colorado 18th
6. Florida 3rd
7. Delaware 25th
8. Oregon 6th
9. Arizona 13th
10. Washington 4th
31. Idaho 8th
Idaho Employment at New Highs
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800 1
995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Th
ou
san
ds o
f Jo
bs
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: January 2015 (prediction)
Loss of 58,000 jobs
Gain of 78,000 jobs
Idaho Employment Gains and Losses
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: July 2014 – July 2015
1.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.4%
3.2%
5.6%
-1.1%
3.5%
3.4%
12.3%
-7.1%
-13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12%
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & MiningTotal: 3.1%
Idaho Industries Seeing GrowthTotal Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: July 2014 – July 2015
1,800
0
700
2,300
2,600
1,900
-100
4,600
2,100
4,700
-300
-1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 5,500
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Total: 20,300
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted
Idaho EmploymentChange Rates
By CountyJuly 2014 toJuly 2015
State Rate = 2.7%
Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Employment
1.1% to 2.6%
0.0% to 1.0%
4.0% or more
2.7% to 3.9%
Below 0.0%
Jefferson
2.9%
Jerome
4.1%
Idaho
2.7%
Gooding
25.5%
Gem
2.6%
Fremont
3.7%
Franklin
-38.9%
Elmore
250.8%
Custer
-0.9%
Clearwater
0.6%
Washington
-0.6% Clark
8.4%
Valley
1.9%
Cassia
1.6%
Twin Falls
4.4%
Caribou
-2.1%
Teton
6.1%Canyon
2.0%
Shoshone
-0.8%
Camas
5.5%
Power
-0.2%
Butte
4.2%
Payette
2.3%
Boundary
5.1%
Owyhee
-9.3%
Bonneville
3.8%
Bonner
2.5%
Nez Perce
0.8%
Boise
3.8%
Minidoka
1.4%
Blaine
5.2%
Madison
2.8%
Bingham
-0.6%Lincoln
0.3%
Benewah
-0.7%
Lewis
0.9%
Bear Lake
1.0%
Lemhi
-58.3%
Bannock
2.3%
Latah
-1.8%
Adams
3.2%
Kootenai
4.7%
Ada
3.4%
Oneida
0.8%
Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment Rates in the Country
July 2015 U.S. Rate = 5.3% NH
3.7%
NM
6.5%
UT
3.6%
AZ
6.1%
CA
6.2%
NV
6.8%
OR
5.9%
TX
4.2%
OK
4.5%
CO
4.3%
WA
5.3%
ID
4.1%
MT
4.0%
WY
4.1%
ND
3.0%
SD
3.8%
MN
4.0%
NE
2.7%
KS
4.6%
IA
3.8%
MO
5.8%
AR
5.6%
LA
6.2%
WI
4.6%
IL
5.8%IN
4.7%
OH
5.0%
FL
5.4%
TN 5.7%
KY5.2%
MS
6.5%AL
6.2%
GA
6.0%
SC
6.4%
NC 5.9%
VA
4.8%
WV
7.5%
PA
5.4%
NY
5.4%
ME
4.6%
AK
6.7%
HI
3.7%
MA
4.7%
VT
3.6%
RI
5.8%
CT
5.4%
NJ
5.9%
DE
4.7%
MD
5.3%
MI
5.5%
DC
6.8%
6.0% or more
4.0% to 4.6%
4.7% to 5.3% (at or below the U.S. rate)
3.9% or less
5.4% to 5.9%
Note: Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho vs. U.S.Unemployment Rates
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
U.S. Idaho
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho Unemployment
RatesBy County
July 2015
State Rate = 4.1%
4.1% to 4.9%
5.0% to 5.9%
3.6% or lower
3.5% to 4.0%
6.0% or greater
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Jerome
3.6%
Jefferson
3.6%
Idaho
6.4%
Gooding
3.3%
Gem
5.2%
Fremont
3.5%
Franklin
3.1%
Elmore
4.8%
Custer
6.8%
Clearwater
7.8%
Washington
5.0% Clark
3.7%
Valley
5.8%
Cassia
3.7%
Twin Falls
3.8%
Caribou
3.8%
Teton
3.7%Canyon
5.0%
Shoshone
7.6%
Camas
3.8%
Power
4.3%
Butte
5.0%
Payette
4.8%
Boundary
5.3%
Owyhee
3.4%
Bonneville
3.7%
Bonner
6.0%
Nez Perce
3.9%
Boise
5.6%
Minidoka
3.7%
Blaine
3.6%
Madison
3.3%
Bingham
4.2%Lincoln
4.5%
Benewah
7.3%
Lewis
4.3%
Bear Lake
4.6%
Lemhi
6.3%
Bannock
4.2%
Latah
4.2%
Adams
7.6%
Kootenai
4.9%
Ada
3.2%
Oneida
4.8%
Idaho Personal Income Growth 6th Highest in the Nation
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau
Percent Change in Personal Income : 2013-2014State Average = 3.9% NH
4.5%
NM
4.6%
UT
4.6%
AZ
4.1%
CA
4.7%
NV
3.9%
OR
5.7%
TX
5.6%
OK
3.8%
CO
5.6 %
WA
5.3%
ID
5.3%
MT
4.0%
WY
4.0%
ND
5.6%
SD
1.7%
MN
3.2%
NE
0.5%
KS
2.9%
IA
1.3%
MO
2.7%
AR
3.1%
LA
3.2%
WI
3.4%
IL
2.4%IN
2.5%
OH
3.9%
FL
4.6%
TN 3.6%
KY4.4%
MS
1.3%AL
3.1%
GA
4.4%
SC
4.3%
NC 3.5%
VA
2.6%
WV
2.9%
PA
3.4%
NY
3.7%
ME
2.9%
AK
5.7%
HI
3.8%
MA
4.2%
VT
4.0%
RI
4.3%
CT
3.0%
NJ
3.0%
DE
3.6%
MD
3.3%
MI
4.0%
DC
3.6%
3.9% to 4.4% (at or above the state average)
3.1% to 3.8%
4.5% or more
2.1% to 3.0%
2.0% or less
Idaho Residential Construction Activity
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
Single-Family Units Multifamily
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau
Idaho Economic Indicators2014 - 2016
Source: Moody’s Analytics
4.6
0.8
8
3.8
2.3
1.3
4.4
2.9
7.4
3.8
3.4
1.4
3.3
6.6
5.3
4.8
2.6
1.3
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Gross State Product
Home Prices
Personal Income
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment
Population
2014 2015f 2016f
f = forecast
Robert Spendlove
Economic and Public Policy Officer
Email:
Phone: 801-560-5394
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