Banking in Serbia Alexander Picker CEO UniCredit Bank Serbia May 2007.
Banking in Serbia
Transcript of Banking in Serbia
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Banking in SerbiaAlexander Picker
CEOUniCredit Bank Serbia
May 2007
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Alexander Picker 2
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Contents: Qestions to be ans!ered
"#o is talking to yo$
"#at is t#e essence o% banking$ "#at does a bank sell$
"#at are t#e trends in t#e !orld$
"#ere is Serbia$
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"#o is talking to yo $Section '
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MA)* S+,UC+U,A- .)/U,ES
UniCredit is a +rly Eroean Bank 1
Eloyees o3er '&(4000
Cstoers: o3er &5 n
Branc#es: o3er 74000
6eosits and debt secrities inisse: (75 bn
-oans: (&0 bn
Banking oerations in
20 contries
/lobal layer in Asset Manageent: 2&8 bn AM
'(t# bank !orld9!ide in ters o% MarketCaitaliation
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Countries where the Group operates via its own branches, representative offices, small banking subsidiaries, or investment centers (Pioneer)
Countries where the Group operates via local banks controlled or in which it has a significant equity interest
1 !it# an extensi3e geogra#ical resence in Eroe 1European branch network and banking subsidiaries
Asterda
At#ens
Bern
Brssels
6blin
Oslo
/ene3a
-ondon
-xeborg
Madrid
Monaco
Oslo
Paris
San Marino
Sko;e
B Bank =ngary
S-O: BA9CA -;bl;ana
S: =>B Bank Slo3akia UniBanka
Baltics: =>B Bank
B)=: =>B Central Pro%it Banka UniCredit B Bank Serbia
AB +iriac Bank UniCredit ,oania
,U: )nternational Mosco! Bank
P-: Bank BP= Bank Pekao
UA: =>B Bank Ukraine UniCredit Bank
A: Bank Astria Creditanstalt 6: =yo>ereinsbank ): UniCredit
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Countries where the Group operates via its own branches, representative offices, small banking subsidiaries, or investment centers (Pioneer)
Countries where the Group operates via local banks controlled or in which it has a significant equity interest
and !orld!ide
Mbai
*e! Dork
,io de Faneiro
SGo Palo
Seol
Singaore
S#ang#ai
Sydney
+e#eran
+el A3i3
+okyo
Ab 6#abi
Ba#rain
Bei;ing
Boston
Benos Aires
Cairo
/ang#o
=anoi
=ong ong
Fo#annesbrg
Mexico City
Miai
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= epresentative !ffice,
P- S B/ ,O =U C< DU S) =, BA M ,U UA -> -+ EE +, A<
Societe /enerale "# $ "
%
&
&
&
"' $ "," $ ",
$ *,,& $ +, , , , ,& $ , , , ,
$ , , ,
UniCredit is t#e largest gro !it# t#e ost extensi3e co3erage t#rog#ot t#e region1
= -ubsidiary
,
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... and is also resent in Serbia
&2 cities
(8 branc#es
Assets: '258
Market s#are: 897I
Cororate clients: ''000 sredn/a predu0e1a ".#&+ velika i me2unarodna &%&
bi0nis %.#
Pri3ate clients: '05000
Eloyees: 880
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"#at is banking $Section 2
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+#e origin o% banking
)taly in edie3al ties
banca K trade
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"#at does a bank sell $
Money$
Ser3ices$
Sa%ety$
$
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"#at are t#e trends in t#e !orld $Section &
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/lobalisation: +rend global gro!t# is #ig#er4 as are coodity rices
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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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3.00
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IMF world commodity price index
(2000=100! le"t #xi$
5%ye#r mo&in' #&er#'e! 'lo#l )*+ 'rowt,! ri',t #xi$
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=ig#er coodity rices ily bigger deand %or %inancial arket assets by EM
%200
%100
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Middle #$t*e&elopin' /$i#
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ex $$i#
index (
rrent #ccont
#l#nce$! * n! l,$
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Eerging Markets are integrating into t#e !orld econoy
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/dnced economie$! excldin'
*e&elopin' economie$ (orld min$ #dncedeconomie$
o" orld )*+! m#ret price$
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Big ictre conclsions
/lobal gro!t# !ill slo! in 20074 bt !ill reain strong %ro a #istoricalersecti3e
Coodity rices are #ence likely to reain abo3e long9ter a3erages
Ad3anced econoies !ill contine to gradally s#rink in ters o% iortance
A Lso%t US gro!t# landing and lo! in%lation !ill ro3e sorti3e %or risk taking4
bt at crrent ricing le3els t#e e3oltion o% in%lation exectations s#old be!atc#ed closely
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Ot#er key !ords
Pri3ate ENity Blackstone4 o#lberg ra3is ,oberts4 Perira
Banking consolidation: Barclays and AB* Aro 87 bn erger
=edge .nds reglatory risk
/lobalisation #as already arri3ed 1
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Serbia S"O+ AnalysisSection (
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Strengt#s: Strctral re%or is catc#ing
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eri#
:ec, eplic
* tr#n$ition indic#tor (#&er#'e
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Strengt#s: /ro!t# Otlook
,obst gro!t# in Serbia in 2007
3 Credit growth remains strong despite tighter 45- policy
3 6ncreases in public sector salaries will support consumption
3 4ational 6nvestment Programme activity continues unabated
3 7onetary policy slightly looser this year (lower *8week repo rate)
Crrent olitical sitation is t#e a;or risk
Exected econoic gro!t# o% 5I t#is year
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"eaknesses: )ndstrial Prodction and 1
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1 Uneloyent
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+#reats: eg )n%lation
Core inflation came down markedly in *< *##+
7ove from a crawling peg echange rate regime to a
>hard? dinar policy has helped lower inflation
@his has allowed the 4ational 5ank of -erbia to cut
interest rates # bps since -eptember *##+.
6ncreases in electricity prices and other administered
prices will increase the headline inflation rate
7edium8term the "&A average increase in public sector
salaries may generate inflationary pressures
4ational 6nvestment Programme activity also presents an
upside risk medium8term to the inflation outlook
Bower oil prices and stronger dinar are the main reasons
we see inflation stable this year at an average 'A and at
A in ecember *##' (partly due to base effects).
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+#reats: +#e crrency arkets 3olatility
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Conclsions
Banking is a colex ser3ice4 !#ic# !ill be needed still %or soe tie
.ollo!ing global trends is essential today as t#e e%%ects are already #ere
Serbia is generally doing !ell on econoic de3eloent
Banking sector in Serbia reains interesting and coetiti3e
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)% yo cannot con3ince t#e con%se t#e
+#anks %or t#e attentionAlexander Picker
May 2007