Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
description
Transcript of Bankhall Conference 2009 - M&G
Landscape Presentation
Property in the new world – Bankhall Conference
November 2009
Graeme Abell, Director of Nationals and Networks
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The world as we knew it
Source: Morningstar and Datastream, as at 15 June 2007
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FSTE All Share Index IPD Property Index MSCI World
The view looks great!
Asset class returns
• Low inflation
• Reducing interest rates
• Access to credit
• M&A activity
• Globalisation
3 Source: Morningstar and Datastream, as at 30 June 2009
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FSTE All Share Index IPD Property Index MSCI World
The view becomes bleak!
Asset class returnsWhat went wrong
• The music stopped
• Freddie and Fanny
• Sub-prime crisis
• Excess leverage exposed
• Lehman’s collapse
• Risk aversion
• Global economics shut down
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In recession At risk Expanding No data
Source: Economist.com 29 July 2009
Much of the world is in recession…What went wrong
Landscape Presentation
Property looking into the abyss
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Property as an asset class
Lower volatility, less correlation
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Gilts Equities Property shares Property
Historical asset returns
Source: Morningstar Inc.; 31 December 1986 to 30 June 2009; FTSE All-Share Index, FTSE 350 Real Estate Index, FTSE All Stocks Index, IPD Monthly Index; sterling, rebased to 100
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-15-14-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012345
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Anticipating recession
Market correcting%
UK property market momentum – 3m rolling total returns
Investment market overviewMore positive trend now building
Market has discounted economic decline
Source: IPD Monthly Index, three-month rolling total returns, as at end August 2009
• All property yields risen from 4.6% to 7.9% since July 2007 peak
Improving sentiment
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Property is investing for income
Source: IPD Annual Index, as at end 2008
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1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Income Capital
%
Property market return components 1972-2008
70% of total return comes from income over the long term
Safeguarding income is key
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Retail Office Industrial All property
Rolling three month market rents
%
Rental market overview
Source :IPD as at end August 2009
Challenging environment
Occupier market to remain weak over the short/medium term
• Weakening tenant demand
– Businesses restricting growth
– Rising unemployment
– Increased risk of insolvencies
• Market level rents falling across all sectors
• Short-term changes in market rents will have a varied effect on rental income
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How will falling rents affect rental income?
• Short term rental income determined by lease terms, not the market
• Lease structures mitigate/smooth the cycle, protecting income
– Latent growth from previous years
– Upward-only rent reviews
• Exposure to prevailing rents is at lease expiry
– 63% UK commercial property leases < 5yrs to expiry*
– Diversified income exposures key
– Long lease durations defensive
Robust income management safeguards rental income
* Source: IPD, as at end September 2009
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M&G Property PortfolioDefensively positioned income profile
Source: IPD and M&G, as at end September 2009
Co
ntr
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ted
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nt
Year of expiry
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
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Lease expiries per year • Long average lease term
– M&G Property Portfolio 13.2 years
– IPD Monthly benchmark 9 years
• Low vacancy rate
– M&G Property Portfolio 7.4%
– IPD Monthly benchmark 13.1%
• Proactively engaging with tenants
Only 2.7% exposed to the worst of the cycle
Terms already agreed on 20% of 2011
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Securing income…
• Existing retail units
– Principles, lease expiry 2011 (in administration)
– Dorothy Perkins (Arcadia Group), expiry 2009
…through asset management
Key throughout the cycle
• Existing retail unit
– Barclays, 2011 expiry
X
Source : PRUPIM as at end 2009
• New– 2 five year leases to Arcadia
Group
– £400k annual income secured
• New– 15 year lease, rent maintained
– £300k annual income secured
– Valuation uplift achieved
13 Source: PRUPIM est of market pricing Q2 2008
Last year’s view…
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
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7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
High Street Shops Rest of SE Offices Rest of UKIndustrials
Retail warehouses Central Londonoffices
Shopping Centres
Long run prospective real return Fair value
Prospective long run real returns
Cheap
Expensive
Where is the value to be found?
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3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
High Street Shops Rest of SE Offices Rest of UKIndustrials
Retail warehouses Central Londonoffices
Shopping Centres
Long run prospective real return Fair value
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
High Street Shops Rest of SE Offices Rest of UKIndustrials
Retail warehouses Central Londonoffices
Shopping Centres
Long run prospective real return Fair value
Source: PRUPIM est of market pricing Q3 2009
Cheap
Expensive
Where is the value to be found?
Good value for long-term investors
Prospective long run real returns
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Asset management
Improve the lease terms
Change the planning use
Developments
Refurbishment
Extend the lease length
Seeking opportunities
to optimise rental income
Protecting returns and extracting further value
Upgrade covenant
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Yields – sharp rise since mid ‘97
Source: IPD as at end June 2009
Paid to wait!
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Property Income on the other side
• Yields on prime properties stabilising, particularly those with good quality tenants on long leases
• Prices now below where we would assess fair value; on that basis, UK currently best value core property market globally
• Increasing evidence of interest in UK commercial property from overseas, also, progressively, from UK investors
Source: M&G, as at end August 2009
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M&G Property Portfolio
• £20B assets under management
• 140 years of history
• Pure bricks and mortar
• Diversification, income & growth?
M&G Property Portfolio 1.5% discount available to 30th April 2010
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Unit price performance to end August 2009 3 months % YTD % 1 yr % 3 yr % pa
M&G Property Portfolio +5.7 -0.1 -14.9 -10.7
Aviva Investors Property Trust +0.7 -12.7 -26.0 -16.1
Ignis UK Property +1.7 -5.2 -15.4 -11.5
L&G UK Property Unit Trust +4.9 -2.0 -13.2 -7.5
New Star UK Property Unit Trust +1.6 -6.9 -23.3 -14.8
Skandia Property Fund +2.6 -5.9 -17.5 -12.0
SWIP Property Trust +1.6 -4.6 -15.8 -10.8
Peer group average* +2.7 -5.3 -18.0 -11.9
IMA Property Sector average +11.1 +5.8 -17.2 -13.1
Source: IMA August 2009 * The unweighted average of the seven funds listed calculated by M&G
Performance reviewM&G Property Portfolio
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FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY.This financial promotion is Issued by M&G Securities Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and provides investment products. The company’s registered office is Laurence Pountney Hill, London EC4R 0HH. Registered in England number 90776. This document is not intended as an offer to acquire or dispose of any security. Information given in it has been obtained from, or based upon, sources believed by us to be reliable and accurate although M&G does not accept liability for the accuracy of the contents. This information is not intended to constitute a basis for any specific investment decision.