Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the...
Transcript of Bank of America Merrill Lynch - DNB · Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ten reflections in the...
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Ten reflections in the aftermath of the last financial
crisis
London, 5 October 2011 CEO Rune Bjerke
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Reflection 1:
Stick to your strategy
Retail Corporate
50% 50%
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Reflection 2:
Have a sustainable industry sector strategy
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Our international presence reflects our strategy
Singapore
Chennai
Hong Kong
Shanghai
Mumbai
Rio de Janeiro Santiago
Houston
New York
London
Oslo
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Reflection 3:
Norway has unique advantages in times of crisis
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Public net wealth, per cent of GDP (2011)
Source: IMF (World Economic Outlook), DnB NOR Markets and Revised National Budget
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
General government financial balance (in per cent of GDP)
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The Norwegian oil age is not yet over
6 Source: DnB NOR Markets
2600
1900
1200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Mmbbl Original reserves on the Norwegian shelf
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One of the fastest growing populations in Europe
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Annual population growth in urban areas
> 750 000 inhabitants, 2005-2010
Estimated population growth in Europe
2010-2030*
Source: United Nations population division, World population prospects: The 2010 revision
Oslo
Norway
Istanbul
Turkey
Madrid
Spain
Toulouse
France
Munich
Germany
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Norway
UK
Sweden
France
Denmark
Germany
Per cent
*Indexed, 2010 = 100
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Household financial wealth exceeds household debt
Norwegians savings June 2010 Households wealth and debt June 2010
Deposits
and cashEquity and
bonds
Other
financial wealth
Holiday
housing
Residential homes**
Billion NOK
Insurance funds*
Mutual funds
*Occupational pension, private pension, life insurance savings etc. ** Finance Norway’s estimates
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Reflection 4:
Liquidity is crucial
2.43
4.40
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011
Average life of long-term funding (Senior debt and covered bonds)
Share of stable long-term funding*
*Deposits from customers, subordinated debt, covered bonds and senior debt > 12 months residual maturity
80 %
85 %
90 %
95 %
100 %
105 %
110 %
2003 2005 2007 2009 1 H
2011
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Solid access to short term funding
Outstanding in USCP/YCD/ECP/CD USD million
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
USCP ECP/CD YCD
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Reflection 5:
New regulations emerge – start to adapt as soon as possible
• Prepare for the schedule presented in December 2010 Implementation
• Leverage ratio best among Nordic peers Leverage ratio
• Capitalisation above expected requirements Capitalisation
• On track Liquidity
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Basel III - four main issues
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DnB NOR is adequately capitalised
9.2 %
11.2 %
Expected range
10.0 – 12.0 %
9.8 %
11.9 %
Expected range 12.0 – 14.0%
CE T1 ratio CE T1 ratio New standard
T1 ratio T1 ratio New standard Full IRB Full IRB
*Common Equity T1 and Equity T1 for DnB NOR as of 30 June 2011, including 50 per cent of profit for the period
Capitalisation of DnB NOR as of 30 June 2011* compared to expected new Basel III standards
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Reflection 6:
Cost focus increases following a crisis
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Streamlining of business processes
Consolidation and centralisation
Improving procurement routines
Reorganising IT operations
350-400
300-400
200-250
NOK million
Increased cost savings (NOK million)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2011 2012 2013 2014
50 -100
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Reflection 7:
The market is sensible to fluctuations in the shipping industry
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600 2009 2010
Actual write-downs vs. expectations
MNOK
Market
expectations DnB NOR
expectations Actual
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Our clients are not solely dependent on the spot market
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
SPOT RATES DnB NOR Base case
DnB NOR Risk case
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
SPOT RATES DnB NOR Base Case
DnB NOR risk case
Dry bulk (USD/day)*
Tankers (USD/day)**
60 per cent of our portfolio has an average coverage of 50 per cent in
2012
75 per cent of our portfolio has an average contract coverage of 30 per
cent in 2012
*Spot rates for dry-bulk capesize vessels last 10 years vs. DnB NOR's assumptions **Spot rates for VLCC tanker vessels last 10 years vs. DnB NOR's assumptions
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Reflection 8:
The perception of state ownership can change rapidly
100% private State share ownership
Top 30 European banks – state share ownership 30 June 2007*
*Top 30 in terms of Tier 1 capital. Source: The Banker and company reports
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Reflection 8:
The perception of state ownership can change rapidly
Top 30 European banks – state share ownership 30 September 2011*
100% private State share ownership
* Top 30 in terms of Tier 1 capital Source: The Banker and company reports
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Reflection 9:
It's all about image and reputation
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
07.08 01.09 07.09 01.10 07.10 01.11
Deutsche Bank HSBC Barclays
Lloyds TSB Royal Bank of Scotland DnB NOR
Danske Bank Nordea
Image development 2008 -2010
Source: Brandindex, YouGov 2011
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Reflection 10:
Crisis can create opportunities
DnB NOR’s position ranked by market value 31 Dec 2006
Nordic countries
6
Europe
34
Global
83
DnB NORs posisjon målt etter markedsverdi 30. Juni 2011
Norden
2
Europa
20
Globalt
67
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Reflection 10:
Crisis can create opportunities
DnB NOR’s position ranked by market value - 31 Dec 2006
Nordic countries
6
Europe
34
Global
83
DnB NOR’s position ranked by market value - 30 June 2011
Nordic countries
2
Europe
20
Global
67
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