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BANK INDONESIA CONSUMER SURVEY (CS)CONSUMER SURVEY (CS)

Nurcahyo Heru PrasetyoRirin Yuliatiningsih

Directorate of Economic and Monetary StatisticsDirectorate of Economic and Monetary StatisticsBank Indonesia

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O OUTLINE :

I. CONSUMER SURVEY BACKGROUND. CONSU SU V C G OUNII. BANK INDONESIA CONSUMER SURVEY

ObjectiveCCoverageMethodology

III. OVERVIEW OF THE RESULTSCCI, CECI, and CEI movementsPrice Expectation movements

IV CONSUMER SURVEY MODIFICATIONIV. CONSUMER SURVEY MODIFICATIONCities coverageMethodologyQuestionnaries

V. PROBLEMS IN DATA PROCESSING AND OBSTACLE IN THE FIELD

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CONSUMER SURVEY BACKGROUND

CONSUMER BANK INDONESIASURVEY

Consumer expectation:

BANK INDONESIA(Act No. 23 of 1999 concerning Bank Indonesia

as has been changed into Act No. 3 of 2004, as the central bank shall conduct

Consumer expectation:Economic conditions, IncomeJob avaibility

monetary policy in aim to achieve and maintain the stability of Rupiah

Price on goods/servicesConsumption planOther macroeconomic indicators

Objective :Maintain the stability of Rupiah

i f iagainst foreign currencyManage inflation rate Survey :

1. Business Survey2. Banking Survey

Information about the changes

2. Banking Survey3. Residential Property Survey4. Retail Sales Survey5. Commercial Property Survey6. Market Perception Survey

in demand and supply side 6. a et e cept o Su vey7. Production Survey8. Price Monitoring Survey 9. Consumer Survey

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Consumer survey Consumer survey

Objective :Objective :to observe consumer confidence about the current economic condition(compare to 6 months ago) and their expectations (6 months ahead).to observe the trend of consumption from households sideto observe the trend of consumption from households sideto capture expectation of inflation

CCoverage:Monthly survey.It has been conducted since October 1999Cover 18 cities in Indonesia.Sample covers about 4.600 households (middle to upper class) asrespondents in 18 cities (Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Surabaya, Medan,espo de ts 8 c t es (Ja a ta, a du g, Se a a g, Su abaya, eda ,Makassar, Bandar Lampung, Palembang, Banjarmasin, Padang, Pontianak,Samarinda, Manado, Denpasar, Mataram, Pangkal Pinang, Ambon, danBanten)Banten).

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C S (CS)

Methodology:

Consumer Survey (CS)

Methodology:

The sampling method is stratified random sampling. The grouping isbased on monthly household expenditure.Data collected through interviews by phone (2 cities) and direct visits (16cities) in particular cities that based on rotated system.p ySurvey is conducted each month from 1st – 10th day.The index is calculated by balance score method (net balance + 100).If index > 100 points indicates an optimism (positive responses) and viceIf index > 100 points indicates an optimism (positive responses) and viceversa.

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C S (CS)

Methodology:

Consumer Survey (CS)

Methodology:Consumer Confidence index

(CCI)

Current Economic Condition Index(CECI))

Consumer Expectation Index (CEI)

Current income condition Expectation of Income

Appropriate time to buy durable goods

Expectation of Economic condition

Current job availability Expectation of job availability

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Characteristic of RespondentTable 1.

Figure of Respondent in average (2007 up toAugust 2009)

Grafik 1 & 2. Population by Pyramid in Indonesia and Social

Economics Status by City

Characteristic of Respondent

 Legend Respondent's composition in average (%)

Gender Male 59.1 Female 40.9

Spending for months Rp 1 million up to Rp 3 million 62.2

 12.2 13.7 23 28.8 12.7 7.5 2.5Denpasar

Rp 3 million up to Rp 5 million 26.5 Above Rp 5 million 11.3

Age 20-40 years old 57.4

3.7

3.8

1.5

10.8

15.9

10.9

15.8

19.6

17.3

28.7

30.8

22.1

27.1

22.8

22.1

11.3

5.3

15.6

2.5

1.9

10.6

Semarang

Medan

Makasar

p

41-60 years old 38.4 Above 60 years old 4.2

Education backgroundSenior high 48.9

13.2

9.5

8.1

16.4

14.7

10.5

19.8

17.9

13.8

25.4

22.3

20.9

18.1

21

25.8

4.1

10

13.5

2.9

4.6

7.5

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jakarta

Bandung

Surabaya

Senior high 48.9 Under degree 13.1 Degree 32.8 Post degree 5.2

Total 4 676 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

A1 [> Rp3.000.001] A2 [Rp2.000.001-3.000.000] B [Rp1.500.001-2.000.000]

C1 [Rp1.000.001-1.500.000] C2 [700.001-1.000.000] D [Rp500.001-700.000]

E [< Rp500.000]

Total 4,676

Sourrce : MARS

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Data ProcessingData Processing

CEICECII dC fidC +2

IndexConfidenceConsumer =

3)8.6.3.( BBBBSIndexConditionEconomicCurrent ++

=

)275( BBBBS ++

Where; B.3 is current income against 6 months ago B 6 is job availability in current time against 6 months ago

3)2.7.5.( BBBBSIndexnExpectatioConsumer ++

=

B.6 is job availability in current time against 6 months agoB.8 is appropriate time to buy durable goods in current timeB.5 is income expectation in the next 6 monthsB.7 is job availability expectation in the next 6 monthsB.2 is expectation on general economic condition in Indonesia in the next 6 months

Respons RateBy Phone Survey is 8:1 or 12,5% ( in every 8 phone calls, there is 1 available respondent to beinterviewed).By Visited is 86,0% (in average), means in every 100 houses visited, there are around 86 respondentsare available to be interviewed.

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SURVEY RESULTS

160

(Index)

140

160

OPTIMISTIC

Increasing of fuel price (avg  31% and transportation tariff (16 67

100

120and transportation  tariff  (16,67‐30%) on May 2008Fuel price increase 96% (in 

average) on Oct 2005 

60

80

PESIMISTIC

Fuel price decrease 9% and 13% (in avg) on 12/15/2008, 01 and 15 Jan 2009

Fuel price increase 30%(in avg) on March 2005

404 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8

2001

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Current Economic Confidence Index (CECI) Consumer Expectation Index (CEI)

PESIMISTIC

CCI movements is adequate to represent economic condition in Indonesia, especially when there is ashock to the ecomonyPrice changes that applies on particular goods are influencing purchasing power and eventually willPrice changes that applies on particular goods are influencing purchasing power, and eventually willimpact to household’s consumption.

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CCI by monthly spending

120

130Index

100

110

80

90

Rp 1‐3 million

Rp 3 ‐ 5 million

> Rp 5 million

70

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2007 2008 2009

By monthly spending, CCI tends to slightly similar movement, while households with higher di ti i tispending are more optimistic.

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Price Expectation Movement

(Index) (%,mtm) (Index) (% t )

170

190

210(Index)

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00(%,mtm)

150

170

190

(Index)

1 50

2,00

2,50

3,00(%,mtm)

110

130

150

0,00

0,50

1,00

,

110

130

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

50

70

90

4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2(2,00)

(1,50)

(1,00)

(0,50)

50

70

90

(2,00)

(1,50)

(1,00)

(0,50)

4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Price expectation in the next 3 months Actual inflation ( % m-t-m)

4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Price expectation in the next 6 months Actual inflation ( % m-t-m)

The survey confirms that consumers in Indonesia were not able to foresee price movements inlong term period

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BANK INDONESIA CONSUMER SURVEY IMPROVEMENTS

1. Cities coverage : 5 cities (1999), 9 cities (2001), 15 cities ( January 2005), 16 citiesg ( ), ( ), ( y ),(June 2005), and 18 cities (2007).

2. Methodology (net balance balance score)

( li i i i f h h )3. Questionnarie (eliminate price expectation for the next 12 months)

DATA PROCESSING AND OBSTACLE IN THE FIELD

1. Data entry processing, verification and manually data processing Human error, time consuming.g

2. In 2010, Bank Indonesia is concerning to build an online application in order tominimize human error, time and effort efficiency. Another beneficial by onlineapplication is systematize database.

3. In technical part, there were obstacles either in phone survey or direct interviews. Ingeneral, phone survey usuallyhas lower response rate than direct interviews.

Thank you

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