BANGLADESHTHE DIGITAL DELTA

Frontier Market Series: A LightCastle Analytics Wing Publication

2

ABSTRACTNestled between India and Myanmar in South Asia, Bangladesh – a country filledwith hopes and dreams of 160 mn people (8th largest) and spanning 147,540 sq.kilometers – surfaces as one of the most prominent, lucrative investment frontiers inthe world.

Despite its fair share of myriad challenges, the country has shown remarkableresilience to register a steady economic growth of > 6% in the last decade, anaccomplishment to take pride in. This significant growth has resulted in a massivechange in the composition of the country’s workforce today, as is evidenced by therise of consumerism.

A significant manifestation of this economic growth is a dramatic increase in digitalmedia consumption. This report explores both the demand and supply end of thisphenomenon in Bangladesh, ranging from infrastructure in the form of mobile andinternet networks to emerging consumer behavior among the rising digital class. E-commerce has already taken root in this huge marketspace and shows promisingsigns of growth.

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Emerging Bangladesh: Gateway to the Digital Delta……..……………………………….… Page 5

Embracing Technology: How the Telecom and Internet Industries are ChangingBangladesh………………………………………………………………………………….……………….. Page 12

The Rising Digital Class: How Bangladesh is Adapting to the Internet………..…… Page 17

E-Commerce: The Digital Frontier………………………………….……………………………… Page 21

IT and ITES Growth Drives the Digital Bangladesh Initiative……..……………….…… Page 28

Investing in Bangladesh ………………………………………………………………………………… Page 32

TABLE OF

CONTENTS

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ACRONYMSADB Asian Development BankB2B Business to BusinessB2C Business to ConsumerBDT Bangladeshi TakaBn BillionBTRC Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory CommissionC2C Consumer to ConsumerF ForecastFY Fiscal YearGDP Gross Domestic ProductGbps Gigabit Per SecondISP Internet Service ProviderITES IT Enabled ServicesIMF International Monetary FundMAC Middle and Affluent ClassMFS Mobile Financial ServicesMn MillionMW Mega WattRMG Ready Made GarmentsUSD United States Dollar

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GATEWAY TO THE DIGITAL DELTA

Bangladesh’s economy has held strong with stable economic growththroughout the last decade. In the next ten years, it is set to perform evenbetter. The country is being buoyed by brisk domestic demand and supportedby a booming RMG sector, flourishing remittance flow, record high foreigncurrency reserve and international investors’ interest in FDIs. Geographicproximity to emerging Asian powerhouses - India and China - will further addimpetus to the country’s drive towards middle income status.

EMERGING

BANGLADESH

ANNUAL GDP (2014)

173BILLION USD

6.7%GDP GROWTH RATE

ADB Forecast, FY 15-16

31.2BILLION USD

Total Exports, FY 14-15

27BILLION USD

FOREX Reserve,

October 2015

Sources: EPB, Bangladesh Bank, ADB

6

STRONG PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO EMERGING COUNTRIES

While many of its competitors have faltered and lost their ways, Bangladesh’s economy has heldstrong in the last decade with GDP growing by 6.1% per annum as of 2014. This growth is impressive,taking into account frequent instances of natural calamities and political unrest in this period whichhave at times hindered economic activity.

7.5

6

6.8

3

6.3

9

6.3

1

6.1

5

5.5

1

4.8

1

4.6

0

4.5

9

4.1

0

0.9

2

Ind

ia

Ba

ng

lad

esh

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Ch

ina

Vie

tna

m

Ind

on

esia

Pa

kis

tan

Eg

ypt

Nig

eri

a

Ne

pa

l

Bra

zil

AVERAGE GDP GROWTH (%)- 2015-2020

Inflation has remained stable over 2015 at 6.21% (Source: Bangladesh Bank) as the country hasenjoyed a relatively stable political situation this year. Reining of inflation is attributed to declininggrowth of non-food inflation e.g. Rent, which has contributed to lower inflationary pressure.Bangladesh Bank has also adopted a tight monetary policy which has further led to lower inflation.

SOURCE: IMF

ADB RAISES GROWTH FORECAST FOR FY 15-16

This fiscal year, the Asian Development Bank is particularly bullish about Bangladesh’s economicprospects. The ADB has upgraded its FY 2015-16 GDP growth forecast for Bangladesh from 6.5% to6.7%. This is notable as for the rest of the Asia Pacific (except Vietnam and Fiji) the ADB hasdowngraded its initial forecasts

8.2%6.8% 6.7% 6.3% 6.20% 5.6% 5.0%

4.1% 3.5% 3.4%

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

Ba

ng

lad

esh

Ph

ilip

pin

es

Asia

Ave

rag

e

Ma

lays

ia

Ind

on

esi

a

Th

ail

an

d

So

uth

Ko

rea

Sin

ga

po

re

ADB FORECAST OF GDP GROWTH RATE (%), FY 2015-16

3.3

11.2

7.7

3

9.6

5.86

13

9

3.2

9.8

6

Exp

ort

Imp

ort

Re

mit

tan

ce

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

Ind

ustr

y

Se

rvic

eS

ecto

rs

SECTORAL GROWTH RATE IN FY 2014-2015 VS ADB's FORECASTS FOR FY 2015-2016

FY 2015 FY 2016

SOURCE: ADB SOURCE: ADB

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MOODY AFFIRMS BANGLADESH’S RATINGS WITH STABLE OUTLOOK

Bangladesh has performed well compared to other comparable countries and sovereign ratings byboth Moody’s and S&P are testament to the economy’s resilience. The ratings are driven by a healthyeconomic outlook, progress on policy reform and limited vulnerability to fiscal and external fundingstress. Local currency country risk ceiling is affirmed at Baa3, Long term foreign currency bond B2 andBank Deposit ceiling at B1.

BANGLADESH ECONOMIC VITALS ARE ON GROWTH TRAJECTORY

Exports have been growing based on the blossoming RMG sector which has clocked USD 25.49 billionin FY 14-15. Remittance revenues has grown to the tune of USD 12.8 Billion in 2015, albeit at a slowerpace. However, import growth has declined at a relatively higher rate which contributed to positivecurrent account balance.

Bangladesh is experiencing record high forex reserve position, currently standing at USD 27 billion as ofOctober 2015. The current reserve can comfortably cover 7 months of country’s import. Thiscontinued growth in Forex reserve is attributable to steadily improving RMG export, the stableexchange rate and satisfactory growth in remittance earnings.

Manpower export is also set to improve as the new opportunities are opening up in markets such asJapan and Thailand. Malaysia also continues to have high demand for Bangladeshi workers.

INFLUX IN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

Government has been investing heavily in infrastructure developments, especially in the field ofpower generation. Since 2009, power generation capacity has more than doubled, increasing from4,942 MW to 11,877 MW in 2015, with 68% of the population having access to electricity. Over thenext five years, the government plans to increase power generation by 12,853 MW. The privatesector will provide 40% of this increased electricity.

The private sector is mainly involved in the power industry through rental power plants.Entrepreneurs have established quick rental power generation plants which have been regularlysupplying to the national grid, contributing to lower electricity shortage.

Government has been working to improve efficiency of the Chittagong Port which has the potentialof doubling its capacity. In fact, in May 2015, the port handled 185, 684 TEU (twenty foot equivalentunits) of import and export, the highest in the port’s 38-year history.

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There also are long term plans of establishing a deep sea port in Sonadia and both Chinese and Indianinvestors have expressed interest in developing the sea port. Establishment of seaport cansignificantly reduce export lead times and earn steady flow of revenue for the government.

A recent report by the Boston Consulting Group on Bangladesh’s growing middle class consumersegments highlights the exciting opportunities for B2C firms in Bangladesh that will emerge in thenext decade.

According to their research, over 60% of consumers expect their income levels to rise in the next 12months. They represent the middle and affluent consumer (MAC) class: although currently they onlyaccount for 7% of the population, by 2025 that will increase to 19%. This translates to a market base of34 million spread out over 61 cities in Bangladesh.

Although MAC consumers usually work within a budget, they want value for money and are lesslikely to be swayed by pricing decisions compared to their counterparts in other South Asianmarkets.

GROWTH IN CONSUMERISM DRIVEN BY RISING MAC SEGMENT

5.8% 11.7%18.7%

33.2% 38.9%

96.7%

8.5%19.3%

32.7%45.4% 49.4%

140.9%

Myanmar Bangladesh Vietnam Phillippines Thailand Indonesia

MAC CONSUMERS (% OF TOTAL POPULATION)

2015 2020

CAGR (2015-2020)

7.9% 10.5% 7.8%11.8% 6.4% 4.9%

SOURCE: BCG

374520

818

1314

2002 2007 2012 2014

GDP/Capita (USD)

Overall, Bangladeshi consumers spend $130 billion annually, with a 6% annual growth in consumerspending. This huge consumer base is something that global consumer brands can hardly ignore.

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

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LONG-TERM GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES- BOTH INSIDE AND OUT

Bangladesh is at the crux of “Chindia”. The close geographic proximity to these fast-growingeconomic powerhouses not only leads to strong trade relations but also gives access to potentmarket opportunities.

2.6 TRILLION USDGrowth in Consumer Spending in Next

Decade

4.2 TRILLION USDGrowth in Consumer Spending in Next

Decade

975 MILLION PEOPLEAccess to Key Asian Markets with

Furthermore, the shift in manufacturing in China as it moves out from low cost production to morevalue addition oriented production has created a gap that many emerging economies are scramblingto fill. Bangladesh is one of the better equipped countries with the capacity, access and cost-base toassume a leading role in this shift.

68 113

66 120

118 126

193 204

262

Bangladesh

India

Sri Lanka

Vietnam

Pakistan

Cambodia

Indonesia

China Inland

China Coast

MIN. WAGE RATE FOR RMG SECTOR (IN USD/MONTH)

SOURCE: ILO

With competitive labor wage rates compared to other countries, Bangladesh is also set to continueits success story in the RMG sector. With product diversification and new markets in Asia the volumemay well exceed USD 40 billion by 2020.

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Italy- 132%

USA- 103%

UK- 89%

India- 66%

Vietnam- 51%

Bangladesh- 17%

PUBLIC DEBT TO GDP RATIO (2014)

Additionally, Bangladesh has one of the lowest Public Debt to GDP ratios compared to other frontiermarkets – even India and Vietnam.

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

509.72

249.16

483.81

126.06

132.54

90.11

72.67

42.92

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Shrimp

Leather Goods

Leather Shoes

Bicycles

ITES

Consumer Electronics

Pharma

Ceramics

Export - Emerging Sectors in USD mn (FY 2014-15)

SOURCE: EPB

Although RMG provides the lion’s share of Bangladesh’s export volume, the country is rapidlydiversifying into other sectors for exports as well. Non-RMG exports currently stand at 5.8 Billion USDand are exported to grow to 11 billion by 2025. This growth is driven by emerging sectors such asLight Engineering, Pharmaceuticals, Leather and IT.

Bangladesh-1.17%

Frontier Market-2.90%

FDI TO GDP RATIO

0.28

0.8 0.74 0.79 0.77

0.96 0.910.78

1.19

1.73

1.53

FY 2

00

3-0

4

FY 2

00

4-0

5

FY 2

00

5-0

6

FY 2

00

6-0

7

FY 2

00

7-0

8

FY 2

00

8-0

9

FY 2

00

9-1

0

FY 2

01

0-1

1

FY 2

01

1-1

2

FY 2

01

2-1

3

FY 2

01

3-1

4

FDI (USD BN)

SOURCE: WORLD BANK SOURCE: CIA FACTBOOK

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DIVERSIFICATION OPPORTUNITIES IN CAPITAL MARKET

Bangladesh has been experiencing increasing FDI over the last decade. FY 2014 inward FDI was USD1.53 billion (highest in the manufacturing sector – USD 722.8 million). However, there is still room formuch improvement, as the FDI to GDP ratio in Bangladesh (1.2%) is still well below the frontier marketaverage (2.9%).

Bangladesh capital markets have developed steadily over time, although they still lack depth andbreadth due to the absence of financial instruments such as derivatives.

However, to their credit, Bangladesh capital markets have very low and even negative correlation withdeveloped, emerging and other frontier equity markets. Therefore, an exposure to Bangladeshsignificantly improves risk adjusted returns.

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DS

EX

In

de

x

Ma

rke

t C

ap

(in

Mil

lio

n B

DT

)

DHAKA STOCK EXCHANGE PERFORMANCE (JAN'07 TO DEC'15)

Total Market Cap in Taka (mn) DSEX Index

The market has returned 162% since Jan 2007 (18.02% p.a.). For long term investors looking toparticipate in the Bangladesh growth story – now is a good time to start investing.

It is worth noting that 4 of the 5 largest stocks in December 2015 belong to the private sector.

SOURCE: DSE

SOURCE: DSE

4.35

2.26 2.02

1.10 0.86

GP BATB Square Pharma Lafarge Surma ICB

MARKET CAP IN USD BN

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HOW THE TELECOM AND INTERNET INDUSTRIES ARE CHANGING BANGLADESH

EMBRACING

TECHNOLOGY

At the crux of the ‘Digital Bangladesh’ initiative are the changing dynamics ofthe telecom and internet infrastructure of the country. With expansive,country-wide coverage and cheap call rates, the telecom sector hasbroadened the horizons of communications in Bangladesh. Meanwhile, newinternet technologies such as WiMax and 3G have boosted internetpenetration. This has not only allowed more and more people to come online,but also the possibility for digital business such as e-commerce to increasethe scope and scale of their operations.

MOBILE PHONE

Subscribers

133MILLION

99%(2014)

2G COVERAGE

53.9MILLION

INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS

(NOVEMBER 2015)

95.7%

INTERNET ACCESS

THROUGH MOBILE

INTERNET

11%(14-15)

MOBILE PHONE Subscriber

GROWTH

INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS

GROWTH

25.5%(14-15)

Sources: BTRC

13

THE TELECOM SECTOR GROWTH STORY

As of now GP has reported that 2G coverage was 99.17% by population and 89.50% by area and thatall 64 of the country’s district headquarter cities are covered by its 3G network. Indeed, Bangladesh hasthe highest penetration among the comparable bases.

0

20

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GROWTH OF SUBSCRIBERS (IN MN)

GP Banglalink Robi Airtel Citycell Teletalk

SOURCE: BTRC

Currently total number of mobile subscription equates to 133 million as of November 2015. It shouldbe noted that, although he number of subscribers have been growing every year, the market shares ofthe operators have remained relatively same.

WIDESPREAD 2G COVERAGE

Although the first telecommunication service provider in Bangladesh was Sheba Telecom during theearly 90s, the industry didn’t truly start to take off until the late 90s. Grameenphone (parent:Telenor), which started its journey in 1997, was quick to take the lead by providing more affordablemobile services.

Fierce competition only really started after Banglalink was launched in 2005. This kicked off a pricewar that drove down call tariff significantly, making cellular phone much more affordable for the masspopulation.

Currently, there are six mobile operators in Bangladesh with Grameenphone (GP) as the market leaderwith 42% market share (BTRC October’ 15). At the moment, prices are fairly stable and the operatorsare focused on consolidating their market share.

85% 85%87%

89%91%

97%99%

Tanzania Zimbabwe Cambodia Afghanistan Kenya Rwanda Bangladesh

2G COVERAGE REACH

SOURCE: GSMA

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SLOWING MARKET GROWTH SIGNALS CHANGE IN TACTICS

Although there is considerable fluctuation in market growth rate on a year-to-year basis, the overallgrowth trend indicates that the mobile market is reaching maturity. Thus there will be less reliance ongrowth from new subscribers as the chief means of increasing revenue over the next 4–5 years.

This has led mobile network operators to look for innovative value- added services (VAS) through theinternet.

SOURCE: AT KEARNEY AND BTRC

INCREASING INTERNET ACCESS DRIVEN BY 3G GROWTH

With an estimated internet user-base of close to 54 million, the number of people using the internethas rapidly proliferated in just three years. Most of this growth is spearheaded by increasing access tomobile internet, which in turn has been driven by 3G usage growth. Currently, 95.7% of internet usersuse mobile internet.

70.0%

32.4%

15.6%

32.7%

23.2%

2.4%

12.5%17.9%

5.4%11.0%

2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016

MOBILE PHONE SUBSCRIBERS GROWTH

18.8% 21.3% 23.9%

-34.0%

-19.4%

-40.0%

0.8% 0.8%

88.6%

INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS GROWTH

Mobile Internet Wimax ISP+PSTN

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Mobile Internet95.7%

Wimax0.3%

ISP+PSTN4%

MEDIUMS USED TO ACCESS INTERNET

Mobile Internet Wimax ISP+PSTN

SOURCE: BTRC SOURCE: BTRC

In comparison, broadband internet growth has been practically nonexistent for the last three yearsuntil 2015, while Wimax usage has declined over time.

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Despite robust growth trends in internet access, Bangladesh still has considerable ground to cover toensure nation-wide coverage. According to the World Bank, 148 million people still don’t have internetaccess in Bangladesh. This makes Bangladesh’s offline population the fifth largest in the world.

SOURCE: BTRC

BARRIERS IN ACHIEVING NATION-WIDE INTERNET ACCESS

The first 3G license in the country was awarded to Teletalk, the state-owned operator launched apilot 3G offering in late 2012. The four operators – GrameenPhone (GP), Banglalink, Robi Axiata andBharti Airtel – later acquired 3G spectrum through an auction, setting the scene for furtherdevelopments in the market place.

Since its introduction, 3G coverage and usage has grown by leaps and bounds. In 2015, 3Gsubscriptions grew to 24.7 million, contributing to 48% of total mobile internet subscriptions.

Additionally, the 3G network is now currently about to reach all 64 district HQs though GP’s coverageinfrastructure. This will ensure a country-wide fast internet coverage boosting the extent ofcommunication to a higher level.

Jan-15 Nov-15 Growth3G 11.2 24.7 121%

Total Mobile Internet Users 41.3 51.4 24%

Total Mobile Subscribers 121.9 133.2 9%

Mobile Internet Users as % of Total Mobile Users 34% 39% 14%

3G as a % of Mobile Internet 27% 48% 77%

3G as % of total Internet Subscribers 9% 19% 102%

1063

755

213

165

148

111

98

95

70

68

India

China

Indonesia

Pakistan

Bangladesh

Nigeria

Brazil

Ethiopia

Mexico

Congo

Offline Population, 2015 (In Millions)

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

According to these numbers, Bangladesh has an internet penetration of only 7.5%. The BTRC and ICTministry dispute these numbers, however, stating that the internet penetration is closer to 34% at themoment. The government aims to achieve 100% internet penetration by 2021.

16

The state of broadband, in particular, is dire. Although the National Broadband Policy was formulatedsix years ago, over the years little improvement has occurred in broadband coverage.

BangladeshParameter Position Index Best

Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 132 1.2Monaco,

Index 46.8

Active mobile-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 149 6.4Macao, China,

Index 322.2

Percentage of households with internet in developing countries 101 6.5South Korea, Index 98.5

Percentage of individuals using internet 162 9.6Iceland, Index

98.2

Percentage of individuals using internet in developing countries 115 9.6Qatar, Index

91.5

Percentage of individuals using internet in LDCs 22 9.6Bhutan, Index

34.4

THE STATE OF BROADBAND IN BANGLADESH (2015)

SOURCE: BROADBAND COMMISSION FOR DIGITAL DEVELOPMENT

In a recent report titled ‘The State of Broadband 2015’ published by the global monitoring bodyBroadband Commission for Digital Development, Bangladesh ranked among the worst performers inmost parameters in regards to broadband penetration. Only 1.2 out of every 100 people inBangladesh have access to fixed internet subscriptions.

Furthermore, of the current bandwidth capacity of 200 Gbps, only 32 Gbps (16%) is used. Perplexingly,instead of focusing on increasing bandwidth usage in domestic markets, the government has recentlyapproved bandwidth export to India and Italy, with 10 Gbps being exported to the southeasternIndian states of Tripura and Meghalaya and 57 Gbps being exported to Italy.

Components of Telecom Tax

Corporate Tax

Rate

40% for listed operators, 45% for non-

listed. Higher than general tax rate (27.5

% for listed, 37.5% for non-listed

companies.)

SIM taxTk. 100 per new SIM. Reduced from Tk.

300 in 2015.

3G License VAT7.5% on 3G Data Usage. Originally a rate

of 15% was proposed.

Tax on

Infrastructure

55% to import capital equipment and

24% for optical fibre cable

Handset Import

Duty21%

57.80%

26.10%23.80%

16.50% 16.50%

Bangladesh Turkey Congo Gabon Brazil

TAXES ON DIGITAL GOODS (% OF COST)

SOURCE: ITIFSOURCE: BTRC

Lastly, digital goods including smartphone and internet access are taxed as luxuries in Bangladesh. Infact, taxes on digital goods are the highest by far in Bangladesh, adding 57.80% to the value of theproduct, which is a far cry from a country like the US where only 2.4% is added due to taxation. Thisalso impedes internet usage growth to a large exent.

The existing consumer base is only going to grow with incremental discretionary income. By utilizingthe electronic and mobile channels there are immense opportunities for technology enabledeconomic growth.

17

HOW BANGLADESH IS ADAPTING TO THE INTERNET

Widespread internet and mobile penetration has catalyzed the growth ofsocial media. Facebook is now extensively used in both rural and urban areas.Although Facebook is the dominant social network in Bangladesh, usage ofother mediums such as Linkedin and Instagram is growing steadily. Businesseshave started to take notice of the possibilities of the internet as both a meansfor promotions and whole new business models. Digital marketing, althoughstill in its infancy, is growing fast with big brands quickly making their mark onthe digital consumer consciousness.

THE RISING

DIGITAL CLASS

FACEBOOK USERS IN

BANGLADESH

18MILLION

802THOUSAND

LINKEDIN USERS IN

BANGLADESH

80%USE MOBILES TO ACCESS

FACEBOOK

72%OF FACEBOOK USERS

SPEND More THAN ONE HOUR

on Social Media

OF FACEBOOK USERS

Sources: Cookie Jar, Webable, UCWeb

18

DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND LEADING THE WAY IN SOCIAL MEDIA

Majority of Facebook users in Bangladesh are youths belonging to the age group of 18-24 years oldfollowed by 25-34 years old. Among these 78% of the users are male and 22% are female.

According to a survey carried out by UCWeb, a Chinese mobile internet company, around 70% of thetotal Facebook users in Bangladesh spend more than 1 hour online on social media. This exposurerepresents opportunities for businesses in terms of both online promotion and sales.

SOURCE: SOCIALBAKERS

5%

12%

53%

24%

4%

1%

1%

13-15

16-17

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

AGE DISTRIBUTION OF SOCIAL MEDIA USAGE

22.70%16.90%

39.80%

28.00%

5h+ 3-5 h 1-3h Less than 1h

Time Spent on Facebook Per Day

SOURCE: UCWEB

GROWING BRAND PREFERENCE AMONG FACEBOOK USERS

Although there is considerable user activity on Facebook, social media engagement betweenbrands/online businesses and customers is still in a nascent stage of development. For instance, ofthe top 3 Facebook pages from Bangladesh, none of them are from a brand.

TOP 3 FACEBOOK PAGES IN BANGLADESH

SOURCE: SOCIALBAKERS

19

SOURCE: SOCIAL BAKERS

The fact that two of these pages are related to cricket shows the immense popularity of the sportamong the nation’s youth.

Nevertheless, several major brands in Bangladesh are increasing their focus on social media as astrong marketing platform. Big Bangladeshi brands present on Facebook now count the number of‘likes’ as a return on investment.

The fact that one of the top five brands in social media is “Ekhanei.com”, an e-commerce basedmarketplace business, indicates the rapid growth of the e-commerce industry in Bangladesh.

5.495.25 5.07

4.36

2.68

GP Robi Banglalink Mela Airtel Buzz Ekhanei

TOP BRANDS IN SOCIAL MEDIA (IN TERMS OF FAN FOLLOWING - IN MN)

A SNAPSHOT OF

DIGITAL MARKETING IN

BANGLADESH

34 CompaniesIn 6 Years

84 BrandsWorking with Top 5 Firms

TARGETING

54 Million

Internet Users

18 Million

Facebook Users

133 Million

Mobile Users

The commitment to a strong online presence by major brands has created a climate for the formationand growth of new businesses solely dedicated to managing the social media and online activities ofthese brands. Digital marketing agencies such as Magnito Digital, Analyzen, Webable and others havebeen quick to capitalize on this need, working on with major brands such as Grameenphone, Samsung,Unilever and others to create stronger social media engagement.

Furthermore, other digital oriented firms have also taken root. G&R Ad network, the first onlineBangladeshi Advertising network, NewsCred, the world’s largest leading content marketing platform,are prime examples of the tech and digital startup boom in Bangladesh.

THE RISE OF DIGITAL MARKETING

20

THE GOVERNMENT IN SOCIAL MEDIA

Social media and the internet has become such an efficient portal to reach the general public that thegovernment of Bangladesh took an initiative to create better connectivity between the ministries byopening up a Facebook group “Public Service Innovation Bangladesh”.

In the group government officials actively contribute and hold open dialogue to solve current socialimpact issues. This is an unprecedented technological leap on the government’s part as it has madeadministrative decision making processes a lot faster and efficient.

THE POLICE IN SOCIAL MEDIA

As a personal initiative, an assistant superintendent of Bangladesh Police, opened up a Facebookpage for his Uttara branch, where citizens could voice their concerns and ask for help from the policedirectly.

This simple step was highly instrumental in revolutionizing the way police services are delivered tothe common people and stood as a testament to the significance of a rising digital space inBangladesh.

21

THE DIGITAL FRONTIER

To say that e-commerce is a fast-growing industry in Bangladesh would be anunderstatement. Driven by factors such as increasing discretionary income,technology adoptive consumers, literacy rate, effects of globalization, middleincome societal enhance and rapid urbanization, e-commerce has captured avery large wallet share of a dynamic market segment.

The rapid growth of the MFS industry, spearheaded by bKash, is also anothermajor stimulant for e-commerce industry growth.

Although most of the popular e-commerce businesses, such as Kaymu, Daraz,Ajkerdeal.com involve a transfer of funds, many other business models arerapidly emerging which involve other types of commercial transactions, suchas ad space and trading on data.

E-COMMERCE

E-COMMERCE INDUSTRY MARKET

SIZE

50MILLION USD 167

NUMBER OF

E-COMMERCE

Businesses

MFS SUBSCRIBERS

51%OF VISITORS TO

E-COMMERCE SITES

ARE RECURRING CUSTOMERS

30MILLION

Sources: PI Strategy, Computer Jagat E-Commerce Directory, Kaymu.com.bd, Bangladesh Bank

22

THE E-COMMERCE GROWTH STORY

Although the beginnings of e-commerce in Bangladesh stretches back to the late 90s, there wasnegligible activity in this sector until the late 2000s. The meteoric rise of the e-commerce sector sincethen is due to a two-fold push that resulted from changes in the consumer demographics and agovernment focus on strengthening internet infrastructure and implementation of e-paymentgateways.

12.0%

0.7%1.9%

USA India Bangladesh

Ecommerce (as % of Retail)

E-COMMERCEMARKET SIZE 300 BILLION USD 4 BILLION USD 50 MILLION USD

SOURCE: PI STRATEGY

Currently, the market size for e-commerce in Bangladesh is a modest 50 million USD. However, the factthat it already has a slightly larger share of the retail market than its Indian counterpart can be seen asa very encouraging sign.

Additionally, although an overwhelming majority of e-commerce businesses are exclusively digital,many existing businesses are rehashing their businesses to integrate digital media and e-payment intotheir business models.

The widespread usage of Facebook has also led to a recent phenomenon called f-commerce, wherebusinesses conduct sales chiefly through Facebook business pages without any on-site or websiteservices.

167

18 2636

8

E-commerce Classified Web Hosting Internet Banking Online Courier Services

E-SPACE BUSINESSES IN BANGLADESH (IN NO.)

SOURCE: COMPUTER JAGAT E-COMMERCE DIRECTORY

23

THE MANY BUSINESS MODELS OF E-COMMERCE

Broadly put, e-commerce covers any commercial transactions conducted electronically on theInternet. When we say commercial transactions, it does not necessarily have to be a transfer offunds- firms that trade on data also fall within the e-commerce umbrella.

From a business/consumer orientation viewpoint, there are chiefly two types of e-commerceactivities in Bangladesh: B2C, where companies sell their products and services to customers; andC2C, where customers engage both buying and selling. C2C in particular has grown very popular inBangladesh in a very short time.

ONE-STOP RETAIL

BOOKS

ENTERTAINMENT

TRANSPORT

TOURISM

HOME SERVICE

FOOD DELIVERY

EDUCATION

GROCERY

ONLINE COURIER

E-TICKETING

F-COMMERCE

REAL ESTATE

CAR DEALERS

MOBILE FINANCING SERVICES

JOB PORTALS

ELECTRONICS CLOTHING

DIFFERENT TYPE OF BUSINESS MODELS IN E-COMMERCE

Although all-purpose, one-stop retail e-commerce companies such as ekhanei.com and kaymu areoften seen as the face of the e-commerce industry, there are several exciting developmentshappening with companies that pursue different business models as well.

24

ONE-STOP RETAIL:THE FACE OF E-COMMERCE

One-stop retailers are the most widespread form of e-commerce sites present in Bangladesh. Here,transactions take place on both B2C and C2C basis.

TOP ONE STOP RETAIL E-COMMERCE BUSINESSES

ALEXA RATING:

17

ALEXA RATING: 64

ALEXA RATING: 69ALEXA RATING: 133

ALEXA RATING: 111

ALEXA RATING: 815

ALEXA RATING: 813

ALEXA RATING: 332

ALEXA RATING: 158

These sites receive significant amount of user traffic every day. For instance, Kaymu.com.bd, whichstarted its operations in January 2014, already receives 20,000-25,000 user visits per day.

MEET THE AVERAGE E-COMMERCE CUSTOMER

According to a report by Kaymu.com.bd, majority of e-commerce site visitors are male and fallbetween the ages of 15-34 years. This correlates with the previous age demographics of social mediausage, further strengthening the case of demographic dividend leading the way in digital mediaconsumption growth. These younger users are more used to technology and thus more open to theoption of online shopping.

14%

61%

16%

5% 2.50% 1.50%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

AGE GROUP OF E-COMMERCE SITE VISITORS

Male83%

Female17%

GENDER COMPOSITION OF E-COMMERCE SITE VISITORS

SOURCE: KAYMU SOURCE: KAYMU

14%

22%

34%

11%

13%

4%

1%

0

Less than 10

10 - 30

30 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 150

150+

Income of E-Commerce Site Visitors (in Thousand BDT)

25

Majority of the consumers are either young professionals (44%) or university students (33%). Morethan 90% of them live in Dhaka and one-third of them has a monthly income of BDT 30K+.

Consequently, there is a positive correlation between lower priced products and high sales. This isattributed to the fact that currently Bangladeshi consumes are more prone to value buy via e-commerce sites. For high value items the trend is still to have a physical “Feel” of the productbefore purchasing.

SOURCE: PI STRATEGY

35%

29%

17%14%

3%

Dhaka Chittagong Gazipur Narayanganj Sylhet

GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF E-COMMERCE SITE VISITORS

SOURCE: KAYMU

8.0%

4.5%

4.0%

3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

7.0%

3.50%

2.50%

3%

Consumer Electronics

Dating Services

Telecom Services

Career Consulting Services

Computers and Laptops

Apparel and Accessories

Employment

Education

Coaching and Tutoring

Financial Services

MARKET SEGMENTATION OFE-COMMERCE SITE VISITORS

Desktop71%

Mobile26%

Tablet3%

DEVICES USED BY E-COMMERCE SITE VISITORS

SOURCE: KAYMUSOURCE: KAYMU

The average e-commerce site visitor seeks to purchase consumer electronics such as mobile phonesor TVs. Although access through mobile is growing, at the moment vast majority of the site visitorsmostly visit through desktops.

26

CURRENT CHALLENGES IN INCREASING E-COMMERCE SALES

Although the number of prospective customers who visit e-commerce sites everyday is quitesubstantial, converting them into actual paying customers is another story entirely.

16%

84%

Brand Loyalty

Loyal Customers Promiscuous Customers

49%

51%

RETURNING VS NON-RETURNING CUSTOMERS

Returning Customers Non-Returning Customers

35%

65%

Shopping Cart Abandonment

Order Confirmed Order Non-Confirmed

SOURCE: KAYMU SOURCE: KAYMU SOURCE: KAYMU

Most of the customers do not show any brand loyalty and instead shop around, searching for packagedeals and special promotional offers. Furthermore, although a little over half of the regular site visitorsare likely to return to the site, most of them often do not confirm purchase even after having selectedproducts in the online shopping cart.

5

10

15

20

25.1

3031.2

April '13 Nov '13 Mar '14 Sept '14 Dec '14 Oct '15 Nov '15

NUMBER OF MFS SUBSCRIBERS (IN MILLIONS)

Cash on Delivery (COD), 50%

bKash, 25%

Cards, 10%

Bank Checks or Deposits,

4%

Other m-Commerce Methods,

10%

Payza, 1%

Most Frequently Used Payment Methods in E-Commerce

Furthermore, although MFS userbase has been growing steadily, reaching 31.2 millions in November2015, the payment method of choice still remains cash on delivery. This signifies that majority of e-commerce customers still do not trust e-payment methods enough.

Consequently, companies have expressed greater commitment to establishing strong securityprotocols and easier transaction facilities with the help from banks and trusted logistic companies.

SOURCE: BANGLADESH BANK SOURCE: PAYZA, T-ZONE

27

POSITIVE GROWTH PROSPECTS

Despite the challenges prevailing in the sector, e-commerce is still predicted to grow rapidly in theforeseeable future. According to Kaymu, Bangladesh’s e-commerce market is expected to grow bymore than 72% during 2015-2016.

27%

39%

51%

60%

72%79%

85%

95%100%

Q1-Q2 Q2-Q3 Q3-Q4

E-COMMERCE MARKET GROWTH, 2014-2016

SOURCE: KAYMU

Going forward, the following predictions can be made for the e-commerce sector in Bangladesh:

• Mobile phones will soon become the dominant medium for e-commerce site visits. This might befast-tracked by greater adoption of larger screen phablets.

• Retargeting strategy will be key to increasing the rate of returning customers. Other strategiessuch as email newsletter marketing will also help in building and retaining customer bases.

• Facebook will soon become the dominant source for obtaining customer traffic. Already somefirms such as Kaymu obtain 80% of their traffic through Facebook ads.

• Efficient and effective deliveries may become important quality factors for customers in the nearfuture. Already, many customers complain about numerous delays in delivery as well asincompetency of the delivery personnel.

• Greater acceptance of e-payment solutions such as Payza will be key to ensuring widespreadacceptance of e-commerce. This will need co-operation between both the MFS providers as wellas the government authorities.

28

DRIVES THE DIGITAL BANGLADESH INITIATIVE

IT AND ITES

With modest beginnings in the late 90s, the ITES industry has come a longway. Buoyed by strong internet and mobile infrastructure along with fallinginternet bandwidth costs, the ITES sector now has over 800 firms, along with10,000 freelancers. With a current market size of 400 million USD, asignificant portion of the ITES industry is export oriented. Enjoying stronggovernment support and burgeoning private sector interest in tech startups,the IT and ITES industries are targeted to capture 1 billion USD worth ofexports by 2018.

Total Market Size

(FY 14-15)

400MILLION USD

132.54MILLION USD

Total IT Exports

(FY 14-15)

19.8%

CAGR

10,000

ACTIVE ICT

FREELANCERS

IT Export Target (2018)

1BILLION USD

GROWTH

Sources: BASIS, EPB

29

DOMESTIC IT GROWTH MAINTAINING STRONG PACE

Of the 800 IT companies currently registered in Bangladesh, majority of them are involved incustomized application development and maintenance. This caters to the needs of firms in sectors likebanking, telecom, pharmaceutics, RMG and Textile sectors, who have contributed to the increasingdomestic demand for customized ITES solutions.

Manufacturing sectors including garment, textile and pharmaceuticals have created sustainabledemand for IT solutions like ERP, HR and Payroll management systems, and production and financialmanagement software. As a result, the domestic IT service industry has grown by 20 to 30 percent perannum over the last few years (Source: BASIS).

76%

50%

45%

18%

17%

11%

7%

3%

3%

Customized Application

IT Enabled Services

E-commerce

Product Development

Mobile Application

System Integration

R&D Services

IT Infrastructure

Reseller

SPECIALIZATION OF IT & ITES COMPANIES

Software44%

ITES56%

Industry Revenue Proportion

SOURCE: BASIS SOURCE: BASIS

FAST EXPORT GROWTH BACKED BY GOVERNMENT SUPPORT

Although most Bangladeshi market players initially offered their services and products predominantlyon the domestic market, Bangladeshi software solutions and ITES are nowadays exported to otherregions like Europe and Northern America.

26.08 24.0932.91 35.96

45.31

70.81

101.63

124.72132.54

FY 2

00

6-0

7

FY 2

00

7-0

8

FY 2

00

8-0

9

FY 2

00

9-1

0

FY 2

01

0-1

1

FY 2

01

1-1

2

FY 2

01

2-1

3

FY 2

01

3-1

4

FY 2

01

4-1

5

YEARLY IT EXPORT EARNINGS(USD MN)

68%

33%

20%

18%

15%

9%

9%

8%

8%

8%

USA

UK

Canada

Australia

Denmark

Netherlands

Germany

India

Japan

UAE

TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS

SOURCE: BASIS, EPB SOURCE: BASIS

30

Around 200 Bangladeshi ICT companies are serving international markets offering outsourcing servicesand project delivery models. Total IT and ITES exports stand at 132.34 Million USD for FY 14-15.

In terms of export destinations, North America (Canada and the US) dominates, whereas Europeancountries like the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany have emerged over the last few yearsas major export destinations. Furthermore, with over 10,000 ICT freelancers active in Bangladesh as of2015, the prospect of IT outsourcing is now brighter than ever.

The government’s Digital Bangladesh initiative has played an instrumental role in helping to boost ITexports through setting up infrastructure for enhanced connectivity, ICT based citizen service deliveryand also an ICT based Education system.

Initiatives like Digital World and BASIS Softexpo are playing a positive role in building awareness andpromoting IT sector to both domestic and the international market. Internet connectivity has beenvastly enhanced over the country, with internet penetration standing at 28% as of 2015.

VAST GLOBAL MARKETS WITH LIMITLESS POTENTIAL

Although it is still in its infancy, ITES industry’s robust growth rate (19.8% CAGR per annum) representsan opportunity to build the next thrust sector for Bangladesh exports. The global ITES market is vast(2.19 trillion USD), and with the right strategies, Bangladesh can become a key global player beforelong.

Sub-sectors such as BPO (93.4 billion USD) are sizeable in their own right. India, the market leader inBPO, currently has a BPO export earnings of 19 billion USD.

Domestic-Driven,

62%

Export-Oriented, 38.00%

FOCUS OF ITES FIRMS IN BANGLADESH

19

14.4

2

India Phillipines Sri Lanka

EXPORT EARNINGS OF TOP BPO EXPORTERS (USD BN) IN FY 13-14

SOURCE: GULF TIMES, CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELDSOURCE: BASIS, IDLC

At the moment the majority of ITES firms (62%) in Bangladesh cater only to the domestic market. Inthe long run, however, export-orientation is the only logical choice for using ITES as a major avenue forexport-led growth.

31

SPOTLIGHT ON TECH STARTUPS

SNAPSHOT OF THE BANGLADESH STARTUP ECOSYSTEM IN 2015

SDASIA

Creates content about startups, entrepreneurs

and business in Bangladesh. Organises

networking and tech events like Innovation Xtreme and Digibuzz.

Partnered with Grameenphone to

launch GP Accelerator, targeting tech startups.

BASIS

Association of IT firms. Provides guidance and infrastructural support

to registered firms. Organises and sponsors

events like Digital World.

FOUNDERS INSTITUTE

The world’s largest entrepreneur training

and startup launch program. Recently

partnered with Fenox to open seed-funding for

tech startups.

EMK CENTER

A venue platform that works in concert with multiple startups to launch and sponsor

events.

SEEDSTARS DHAKA

A global seed-stage startup competition for emerging markets and fast-growing startup scenes.

Took place for the first time in Dhakaon November 2015.

CONNECTING STARTUPS

BANGLADESH

A state-sponsored program that seeks to provide mentoring and incubation to promising

startups.

DRINKENTREPRENEURS DHAKA

An after-hours, idea sharing and networking platform for

entrepreneurs.

STARTUP WEEKEND DHAKA

A global annual event for grassroots networking and idea-sharing. Anyone can join the 54-hour event and

pitch their idea.

For the last few years, Bangladesh has seen the rapid rise of a vibrant startup community. This mostlyinformal but tightly connected private sector community, which consists of investors, mentors andstartup evangelists, have worked closely with government initiatives such as a2i and Digital World.Startup events such as Innovation Xtreme have also attracted global attention to the exciting techstartup developments in Bangladesh.

Local ventures like BDJobs.com and NewsCred have raised international funds with many local techcompanies like chaldal.com raising seed finance from local and international investor networks. In thelast year, the startup community has become more organized with several incubators, mentorshipand networking platforms and even accelerators appearing in quick succession.

With the growth of such an extensive support structure buoyed by both public sector and privatesector support, there is now more opportunity than ever for aspiring IT entrepreneurs to enter themarket and contribute to the industry’s growth on both national and global levels.

32

GOVERNMENT POLICY SUPPORT

Recently, attractiveness of Bangladesh as an investment destination has increased manifold, especiallydue to the country’s preferential trade status in major international markets, inexpensive labor andproximity to China and India. Increasing labor costs in China has further precipitated a shift ofinvestment to neighboring regions. Given the backdrop, Bangladesh government is keen to attractinvestment not only to positively tilt the balance of payment position, but to further rejuvenate theeconomy through employment generation and GDP growth.

A host of policies have been adopted to incentivize foreign investment.

Tax Holidays: Foreign investors will receive tax holiday ranging from 5 to 7 years based on geographiclocation. For instance, for industrial enterprises located in Dhaka and Chittagong, tax holiday is for fiveyears. While it is seven years for locations in Khulna, Sylhet, Barisal and Rajshahi divisions.

Accelerated depreciation facility: Industrial units financed by foreign investors will enjoy an accelerateddepreciation allowance post tax holiday period. Such allowance is available at 100 per cent cost of themachinery or plant if the industrial undertaking is set up in the areas falling within Dhaka, Chittagongand Khulna. If the industrial undertaking is set up elsewhere in the country, accelerated depreciationis allowed at the rate of 80 per cent in the first year and 20 per cent in the second year.

Concessionary duty on imported capital machinery: No import duty will be charged for importedmachinery for industrial units which are 100% export oriented in nature. For the rest, 5% import dutywill be charged for initial installation or BMRE/BMR of the existing industries.

Full repatriation of Capital: Full repatriation of capital invested from foreign sources will be allowed.Similarly, profits and dividend accruing to foreign investment may be transferred in full. If foreigninvestors reinvest their dividends and or retained earnings, those will be treated as new investments.

Legal protection: The policy framework for foreign investments in Bangladesh is based on 'The ForeignPrivate Investment (Promotion & Protection) Act. 1980, which ensures legal protection to foreigninvestment in Bangladesh against nationalization and expropriation. It also guarantees non-discriminatory treatment between foreign and local investment, and repatriation of proceeds fromsales of shares and profit. Despite change in government, there has been a continuity of policies withregards to attracting foreign investments.

Bilateral agreement and treaty: The Government of Bangladesh has a series of bilateral investmentagreements with a number of countries in Asia (China, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka,Thailand, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines), Europe (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland,Romania, Sweden, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, Italy, Romania, Switzerland, Turkey) and NorthAmerican (Canada, USA).

INVESTING IN

BANGLADESH

33

Preferential Trade Agreements: Bangladesh has a number of preferential trade agreements withcountries having significant market size e.g. GSP with EU, quota and tariff free access to Canada andJapan.

Alongside, Bangladesh has recently signed Trade and Investment Co-operation FrameworkAgreement (TICFA) with the US where bilateral trade issues will be discussed. Currently, talks areunderway to revive the GSP suspension imposed by the US government last year.

GATEWAY TO BANGLADESH

International investors can undertake investments seamlessly through the Board of Investment (BOI)and Central Bank’s support.

STEP 1-Opening bank account as per 'Foreign Exchange transactions 1996. - Trade license- Tin Certificate- Company formation

STEP 2Application to BOI will include:- BOI prescribed form- Project profile- Memorendum of Articesof Association- Certificate of incorporation- TIN/ VAT registration- Trade license

STEP 3Set-up of plant:- Purchase/lease of factory land- Import of machinery- Industrial Adhoc IRC- clering of capital machinery- Environmental Risk clearance- Fire license- Connection of utility lines

ENTERING THE CAPITAL MARKETS

Foreign investors can also invest directly in Bangladesh’s vibrant Capital market which can hedgeinvestor’s portfolio risks in the event of global economic downturn.

The following steps need to be taken by foreign investor for investing in the capital market:

• A Foreign Currency (FC) Account is needed for inward and outward remittance.

• A Non-resident Investor’s Taka Account (NITA) is required for converting foreign currency intoTaka.

• All Capital Market investors are required to conduct trading through a Stock Broking Accountmaintained with any Stock Broker/Member of the respective Stock Exchange.

• In order to trade dematerialized shares listed with the Stock Exchanges, investors must have aBeneficiary Owners (BO) Account with CDBL.

• NRB & Foreign Investors may choose to appoint a Custodian to ensure trade execution and safecustody of shares.

LightCastle Partners (LCP) is a business data

firm. We work at the intersection of market

data and company specifics to simplify

decisions and drive business growth. Till date,

we have served several reputable clients

including Mitsubishi, Generac, Asian Capital

Advisors, Care Inc., Swiss Contact Katalyst and

top tier local corporates among others.

The founding partners have backgrounds in

Corporate and Investment Banking, Audit and

Advisory with firms like Citi, HSBC, StanC,

KPMG and Delloite.

ABOUT US

ANALYSTS:Bijon IslamCo-founder, CEO

Mohammad Kashif ChoudhuryAssistant Vice President

Md. Sazzad Hossain NahidAssistant Vice President

Ivdad Ahmed Khan MojlishCo-founder, Managing Director

Zahedul AminCo-founder, Finance and Strategy

M. Saifur RahmanCo-founder, Marketing and Business Development

Muhtasim Sarowat RayedJunior Associate

All information contained herein is obtained by

LightCastle from sources believed by it to be accurate

and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or

mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all

information contained herein “As IS” without warranty

of any kind.

LightCastle adopts all necessary measures so that the

information it uses is of sufficient quality and from

sources LightCastle considers to be reliable including,

when appropriate, independent third-party sources.

However, LightCastle is not an auditor and cannot in

every instance independently verify or validate

information received in preparing publications.

For queries or comments, please contact:

LightCastle PartnersHouse 19, Road 13, Block G

Niketan, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Mail: info@lightcastlebd.com

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