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Water security and climate change adaptation: Experiences from BangladeshExperiences from Bangladesh
Giasuddin Ahmed ChoudhuryExecutive Director, CEGIS
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ChinaChina
Nepal Bhutan
India
Bangladesh
Bangladesh : Most vulnerable country due to climate change
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Vulnerability due to Natural DisastersNatural Disasters
•Erosion/Sedimentation•Erosion/Sedimentation
•Water logging
•TornadoesDue to climate change, the intensity of all these •Earthquake
•Tsunami
disasters will increase.
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Water Management Systems in Bangladesh
Teesta Barrage Irrigation Project
• 600+ water management systems• 600+ water management systems
• 6 million ha under flood protection
• 4.5 million ha under both surface & ground water irrigationDrainage
Flood Control
Legend
Flood Control & DrainageFlood Control
Flood, Drainage & IrrigationIrrigation & DrainageIrrigation
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Food Security
• National food production increased but population still live with low level of nutrition
•30% of the population consumes fewer than 1800 kcal per day (FAO 2005)(FAO, 2005)
• Around 60% of people live below the food based poverty line
Category of Household Caloric Poverty rateRural 59.42Urban 58.45Total 59.12Source: Razzaque and Raihan, 2007
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Water Security in Bangladesh
Water security issues: Ganges River in dry season at Hardinge Bridge
Reduced transboundary river flows
Massive sedimentation and river dyingMassive sedimentation and river dying
Occurrence of Arsenic in ground water
Draw downing of ground water table Draw downing of ground water table
Deteriorating water qualitySoil salinity during 1997
Salinity intrusion in the coastal belts
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Power Security
Power plants 48 nos.Installed capacity 5823MW/day
Load shading for DSM
Electricity generate (average) 4000MW/dayElectricity demand 5000-6000MW/dayPresent demand supply gap 1000-2000MW/dayPresent demand supply gap 1000 2000MW/dayProjected demand by 2014 9000MW
Installed capacity: Plant Type
48%
4%5%
25%
Demand Supply Gap
6000700080009000
10000
W
18%
10002000300040005000
J 09 D 09 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014
MW
Hydro Steam TurbineGas Turbime Combined CycleDiesel
June 09 Dec 09 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY2013 FY 2014
Max. Demand Considering DSM Depandable Capacity (with Gas Crisis)Max. Demand-Suply Gap (with Gas crisis)
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Future Challenges
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120140 Population Growth
Due to rapid urbanization, population in towns and cities is expected to rise by
80100120
and cities is expected to rise by
‐ 40% in 2025 204060
‐ 60% in 20500
20
1998
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
In Rural areas population
A burgeoning population of
Rural UrbanIn Rural areas population will be 108 million in 2025 & 88 m in 2050
A burgeoning population of 150 million expected to rise to
In urban area population 181 million by 2025
224 million by 2050
will be 73 m in 2025 & 136 m in 2050
Source: NWMP
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10.0
b ll
Land Use
8.0Urban area will increase from 11% to 15% in 2025
4.0
6.0
Forest & Fisheries Habitat will increase
2.0
will increase
Agricultural land will ‐
1995 2025 2050decrease from 59% to 48%
P it i lt l l dRiver & waterbodies Forest & Mangrove
Urban and Other Agriculture
Per capita agricultural land will decrease from 0.68ha to 0 39ha
Predicted areas in million hectares
Urban and Other Agriculture to 0.39ha
Source: NWMP
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Rice 30.37 33.96 36.95 38.94 40.21Wheat 2.26 2.90 3.61 4.44 5.35
Crop production (million ton)Crop Name Projected crop production
t t f t f dPulses 0.41 0.39 0.33 0.31 0.33Oilseeds 0.39 0.40 0.39 0.34 0.33Spices 0.65 1.08 1.59 2.21 2.92Potato 3.90 5.65 7.68 10.02 12.65Vegetables (W&S) 3.41 5.43 7.85 10.68 13.91Sugarcane 7 67 8 23 8 82 9 56 10 33
to meet future food requirement
Sugarcane 7.67 8.23 8.82 9.56 10.33Jute 0.58 0.35 0.28 0.30 0.31Fruits 1.97 2.38 2.83 3.32 3.85
45
30
35
40
n)
Rice
Wheat
20
25
30
duction (m
illion to
Wheat
Pulses
Oilseeds
Spices
Potato
10
15
Crop
pro
Vegetables (W&S)
Sugarcane
Jute
Fruits
0
5
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
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Coastal Flooding with Sea Level Rise<1m
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Future Climate Change Impacts: Land and waterWater security issues:
•Landward migration of salinity front due to SLR
Water security issues:
• More than 50% of the coastal zone will be affected by climate change induced salinity intrusion land inundation
•SLR will change the di i d isedimentation and erosion
pattern in the major rivers
Landward migration of Salinity front (km)Name of River system SLR Salinity front
32cm 88cmGorai‐Passur‐Rupsha System 1.8 9 1 ppt lineI h i J S 4 5 6 5 10 liIchamati‐Jamuna System 4.5 6.5 10 ppt lineShalagang System 7.1 8.7 10 ppt lineSibsha System 7.1 16.9 15 ppt line
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Future Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture
• The suitability of T‐Amanwill be reduced by 12% due
Land suitability (%) for T‐Aman under different SLR conditionScenarios Highly
SuitableSuitable Moderatel
y suitableNot suitable
Base 0 84 14 2will be reduced by 12% due to 88cm SLR
Base 0 84 14 232cm SLR 0 60 24 1688cm SLR 0 12 57 31
• The suitability of Boro rice will be reduced from 36% to
Land suitability (%) for Boro under different SLR conditionScenarios Highly
SuitableSuitable Moderatel
y suitableNot suitable
will be reduced from 36% to6% due to 88cm SLR Base 0 36 43 11
32cm SLR 0 6 37 57
88cm SLR 0 6 33 61
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Future Climate Change Impacts: Socio‐economic system
• Livelihoods depend on natural resources arevulnerable to Climate change
y
• Income potentials of Farmers will decreasedue to decrease of land use suitability for riceproductionp• National food security will be worsened• Shrinkage of drinking water source and itsavailability• The numbers of coastal poor will increaseUlti t l th ti l t t d GDP ill b• Ultimately the national targeted GDP will be
difficult to achieved• Outmigration from coastal zones will creategpressure on capital and other large cities
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Challenges in Achieving Water and Food Security under Climate Change Scenario
• Increasing population • Gender equity
Secu ty u de C ate C a ge Sce a o
Gender equity• Ensuring water and food security• Rapid urbanizationp• Reliable power generation and supply• Transboundary water sharing and y g
management• Natural resources management• Natural hazard and risk management• Political commitments• International co‐operation
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Strategy & Planning
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Climate Change StrategyBangladesh vision is to eradicate poverty and achieve
economic and social well-being for her people
Bangladesh adapted a pro-poor, climate resilient and low carbon development strategyp gy
Strategy based on four building blocks of Bali Action PlPlan:
• Adaptation to climate change• Mitigation• Mitigation• Technology transfer• Adequate and timely flow of funds for investmentAdequate and timely flow of funds for investment
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Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy d A i Pl (2009)and Action Plan (2009)
• Six pillars or broad areas of intervention:p
Food security ComprehensiveFood security, social protection
and health
Comprehensive disaster
managementInfrastructure
Research and Mitigation and low Capacity buildingknowledge management
carbon development
Capacity building and institutional
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Planning Approach for Climate Change Adaptation: Water & food Security
• Initiatives for IWRM andIntegrated Farming focusing onclimate change impacts
• Rationalization and planningRationalization and planningfor infrastructures and urbandevelopment resilient toclimate change
Integrated Farming (Rice, fish, poultry, vegetable
climate change
• Investment in research onl h ( lclimate change stress (salinity,inundation) tolerant variety ofcrops
Vegetable garden on floating bed Cage culture of fish
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Planning Approach for Climate Change Adaptation: Water & food Security
• Rationalization of investment programs considering future climate change issues
Solar Panel on roof‐ Common in Rural Bangladesh
climate change issues
• Investment in renewable energy resources, reliable power generation and supply
• Regional collaboration for hydro‐electric power generation
• Improved warning system and community based dissemination• Awareness building
Community based warning system
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Immediate impact Results
Climate Change Impact Adaptation Measures
Interventions needed
1. Cyclones –i d Hi h t Early Warning systems
Immediate impact Results
dapt
atio
n
Interventions needed
increased frequencyand severity
Higher storm surgesHigher wind speed
Early Warning systems Cyclone shelters and
Killas
ity-
base
d ad
Early warning systems Improved O&M of
b k tAR
MIN
G
le/C
omm
un
2. Heavier more erraticrainfall in GBM
Higher river flowsDrainage
embankments Upgrading of flood
protection embankments/drainageLO
BA
L W
A
he v
ulne
rab
rainfall in GBM basins inthe monsoon season
gcongestionFlooding in rural /urban areas
embankments/drainage systems Raising some roads and
railway tracks
GL
tect
ion
for
t
season railway tracks Flood proofing Improved crops and
cropping systems Soci
al p
rot
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Immediate impact Results Interventions needed
Climate Change Impact Adaptation Measures
3 L Improved irrigation and
Immediate impact Results Interventions needed
adap
tati
on
3. Lower more erratic rainfallat other times
Droughts and scarcityof drinking water
Improved irrigation andwater management Provision of drinking water Improved crops and G
nity
-bas
ed a
at other times cropping systems
WA
RM
ING
ble/
Com
mu
4 Melting of
Higher river flows in short tomedium term
GLO
BA
L W
the
vuln
era
4. Melting of Himalayan glaciers
and then reducedflows and i d li
Exacerbates impacts of 2 and 5
G
rote
ctio
n fo
r
increased saline intrusion
Soci
al p
r
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Climate Change Impact Adaptation Measures
Improved O&M and upgrading of coastal
Immediate impact Results
dapt
atio
nInterventions needed
5 Sea level rise
Coastal embankmentsovertopped Saline
upgrading of coastal embankments and polders Improved crops and G
nit
y-ba
sed
ad
5. Sea level rise intrusioninto rivers and groundwater
cropping systems Provision of potable
drinking waterP ibl i d i lW
AR
MIN
G
ble/
Com
mun
Possible industrial relocation
Health education/GLO
BA
L W
the
vuln
erab
6. Warmer and more humid
Increased prevalence ofdisease and
Health education/ awareness Immunization Other prevention
G
otec
tion
for
t
weather disease and disease vectors programmes
Drinking water and sanitation So
cial
pro
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GWP and added value of GWP Bangladesh in the interventions
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GWP’s Role and Responsibilities
• Development of networking for internationalDevelopment of networking for international cooperation
• Assisting preparation of Climate changeAssisting preparation of Climate change adaptation and impact management framework
• Knowledge dissemination and experience sharing• Knowledge dissemination and experience sharing• Capacity building of climate change impact managersmanagers
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GWP & BWP Initiatives : Partnership Building and Networking
• A kick‐off Workshop held back to back with the
and Networking
back to back with the Regional Council Meeting of GWP‐South Asia in N b 2008 i NNovember 2008 in New Delhi.
• Second workshop was h ld 4 J 2009 iheld on 4 January 2009 in Dhaka to get feedback on the project design and its p j gimplementation.
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GWP & BWP Initiatives : International Cooperation
• Sharing the regional strategy (South Asia perspective) in Hanoi Dialogue on Adaptation toperspective) in Hanoi Dialogue on Adaptation to climate change for Land and Water Management
• South Asia perspectives on adaptation to climate change reflected in Nairobi Statement
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BWP & CEGIS Jointly Organised Workshop on Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation
•Dialogue onDialogue on Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and g gyAction Plan to stakeholders
•Awareness building
Minister of Water Resources; Chief Commissioner, RTI Commission; Director General, Bangladesh Water Development Board; Chairman, BWP; Vice Chairman, BWP; Executive Director, CEGIS are seen in the picture participating the workshop
•Developing network between GO and NGO
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GWP & BWP Initiatives: Training and C it B ildi
• Training and Capacity building for implementing
Capacity Building
Training and Capacity building for implementing IMRM for national level Govt. and NGO Water Resources Managers and Plannersg
• Arranging ToT course for building trainers to manage natural resources under climate changemanage natural resources under climate change perspective
• Conducting action research on multidisciplinaryConducting action research on multidisciplinary natural resources issues under climate change scenarios
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Recommendation
• Continuing training on IWRM and action research for better resource managementresearch for better resource management
• Playing active role in dissemination to all stake holdersholders
• Supporting the national activitiesSt th i th t ki th ll• Strengthening the networking among the all stakeholdersP ti i l d i t ti l• Promoting regional and international cooperation
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Thank YouThank You