BANCOSTA Weekly Market Report · be supported by the difficulties of state-run Coal India in...

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Weekly Market Report

Week 41/2018 (8 October – 12 October)

Comment: Indonesian coal exports

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2 market report - week 41/2018

Last week, Reuters reported a drop in Indonesian coal exports to 24.8 million tonnes in September, down 12.4 percent month-on-month and 10 percent year-on-year, based on vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv. This was in spite of Indonesian coal – both the lower grades and those with similar energy content to Newcastle – being at their widest discount to Australian thermal coal.

The decrease in shipments also appear to go against the country’s plans to increase coal production this year to around 507 million tonnes, up from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, as they seek to cash in on coal sales and prevent further depreciation of the rupiah.

The lower export figures may be attributed in part to weather being much wetter than usual over May to early July, which hampered coal shipments from South and East Kalimantan – Indonesia’s main coal producing regions.

Lower purchases from Indonesia’s two major customers, China and India, have also contributed to the decrease in coal shipments as they switched to other suppliers. Both countries are estimated to account for over 50 percent of Indonesia’s coal export volume.

In the first 9 months of 2018, Indonesia’s exports to China increased a strong 18.8 percent to 89.7 million tonnes according to the ship-tracking data. However, much of this strength was in 1Q 2018, with September actually the weakest month so far this year at 7.5 million tonnes in shipments. This was down sharply from August's 9.7 million tonnes, and marked the third month of declining imports from Indonesia.

While Indonesian coal have a low calorific value, they tend to have lower sulphur and ash content as well, and are thus usually used by Chinese buyers as a blending feedstock with domestic supplies. However, in recent months, it seems that Chinese buyers have preferred Australian coal with their higher energy content over Indonesian grades, possibly due to the coal import restrictions imposed since April. The restrictions, which even resulted in reports of Southern Chinese ports prioritizing thermal coal imports over coking coal during the peak summer demand season, might have necessitated purchases of higher calorific value Australian coal to meet the strong electricity demand.

For India's coal imports from Indonesia, shipments stayed relatively flat over the Jan-Sep 2018 period, falling a marginal 0.7 percent year-on-year to 57.8 million tonnes as India increased purchases from other sources. Imports from the U.S. and South Africa over this period reached 12.5 million tonnes and 25.9 million tonnes respectively, up 49 percent and 16 percent year-on-year. Even Australian coal exports to India increased 14.1 percent year-on-year to 34.7 million tonnes, with some reports of an increase in thermal coal cargoes other than the usual coking coal shipments.

The increase in coal imports from these three sources, which generally have a higher calorific value than most coal from Indonesia, could reflect an increasing preference of Indian utilities to pay more for higher-quality coal, perhaps to increase efficiency or minimize the pollution per unit of electricity generated. This represents a deviation from India’s usual purchase pattern, with their buyers known to cut back on imports in times of high prices – which in theory should favour cheap Indonesian coal.

If this preference continues, it seems Indonesia could lose out in the Indian market, even as coal imports continue to be supported by the difficulties of state-run Coal India in supplying the domestic market.

Indonesian coal exports

50

59

19 19

10 10 9

27

6157

2318

11 11 10

27

80

59

22

1713 13 12

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

China India S. Korea Japan Malaysia Philippines Thailand Others

mill

ion

to

nn

es

Indonesia - Coal & Lignite Exports by Destination(source: customs data ; in million tonnes)

2016 (1-7) 2017 (1-7) 2018 (1-7)

China32%

India24%

S. Korea9%

Japan7%

Malaysia5%

Philippines5%

Thailand5%

Others13%

Indonesia - Coal & Lignite Export Destinations in Jan-Jul 2018(source: customs data ; in % of import volume)

Unit 12-Oct 05-Oct W-o-W Y-o-Y

BCI TC Avg. usd/day 18,746 18,026 +4.0% -5.8%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 18,700 16,944 +10.4% -8.2%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 18,691 18,150 +3.0% -1.9%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 19,967 18,795 +6.2% -3.6%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 20,000 19,750 +1.3% +25.0%

dry cargo chartering banchero costa

The market remained quite flat in the first part of the week in the mid $8s/mt for West Australia to China trips, and then jumped approaching the weekend in the low $9s/mt pushed by FFA going up.

Activity from Brazil was still concentrated on October dates with vessels fixed to Vale between $19.50/mt and $20/mt while for November dates there is about $1/mt premium over 1/10 November laydays. There were still ballasters for end of October dates in Brazil to be fixed, hence it looks like rates could be capped unless some sensible increase in cargo volumes materialize.

Capesize Market

Rates

Panamax Market

Rates

In North Atlantic, due to sustained demand, the market showed the highest rates and most of the prompt tonnage was fixed, so charterers started to take tonnage for two to three laden legs in order to avoid paying a premium for the first leg, in any case a modern Kamsarmax was fixed at $18,000/d basis dely/redely Atlantic. The South was a just little slower than the previous weeks, but November cargoes despite not being many in the market yet, were fixed at quite good numbers: well-described ships were still taking around $16,500/d from Singapore.

The Pacific showed very limited NoPac enquiries, but was well balanced by consistent Indonesian and Australian mineral demand. Indeed, vessels open in the North seemed to be discounting compared to tonnage open South China or SE Asia. The period market was well sustained with several vessels now being fixed in both Atlantic and Pacific basin.

3

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

BPI TC and Panamax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

market report - week 41/2018


BPI TC Avg. usd/day 14,227 13,849 +2.7% +13.8%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 15,996 15,659 +2.2% n.a.

P1 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 15,508 14,690 +5.6% +25.5%

P2 Skaw-Gib Trip East usd/day 22,623 21,955 +3.0% +16.5%

P3 Pacific r/v usd/day 13,602 13,525 +0.6% +3.6%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 13,000 13,000 +0.0% +8.3%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 15,250 15,000 +1.7% +17.3%

dry cargo chartering banchero costa

Handysize in USG increased a few thousand dollars over last week with 32/35,000 dwt fixing in the mid/high teens for inter USG and TransAtlantic RV with clean cargoes. Supramax remained strong, but steady fixing around 20/21,000/d for TARV. The market is still tight for October dates and it is difficult to expect any softer trend. ECSAm market kept rising on back of limited tonnage prompt in the area. Tess58 were fixed around $22,000/d basis dely APS for trips to Med and around $21,000/d to Cont; Ultramax were getting a $1,000/d premium. Trips to Spore/Japan were getting stronger and stronger with Supramaxes fixing around $16,500/d + 650,000 bb. The Handysize market is also strong with owners asking around $17,500/d for trips to Cont/Med and $20,000/d to F East.

Supramax & Handysize Market

Ind

ia

S A

fric

a

The market improved in Cont for Handysize: rates for the usual scrap trade on 35,000 dwt were around $13,000/d. Modern 35,000 dwt were also fixed around $9,750/d for trips to USG. Supramax and Ultramax rates were stable during the week. A Tess58 was rumoured at $14,500/d basis dely Cont with scrap to E Med. The Med market firmed in all sizes on the back of stronger demand; there are ships available, but there has been a significant demand hike and ships were rapidly fixing away.

The strong trend continued and Ultramax were fixed at $15,000/d basis dely dop WC India for trips via MEG to India with limestones. A 63,000 dwt was fixed at mid $15,000/d basis dely dop WC India for a trip with salt to China. A 55,000 dwt in MEG was fixed around $17,000/d for a trip to Chittagong with harmless minerals and a 52,000 dwt on the same trip was heard at mid $14,000/d levels. A 63,000 dwt was rumoured at a level close to $16,000/d basis dely WC India via MEG to India with minerals. From S Africa Ultramax were in the region of $14,000/d + 450,000 bb and Supramax around $13,000/d + 350/375,000 bb basis dely aps for coal and manganese ores to Pakistan/India; towards the end of the week a Tess58 was rumoured at low $13,000/d + 300,000 bb to F East and a Dolphin57 got very high $12,000/d + 280,000 bb for a similar trip via Maputo.

Far

East

P

acif

ic

After the end of the golden week activity resumed slowly due to charterers’ efforts to push the rates down. A good number of Supramax and Ultramax were fixed at levels that didn’t show any sign of slowdown. Coal shipments from Indonesia to Thailand showed a 55,600 Dolphin fixed at $12,000/d, then a sister vessel was fixed at $13,000/d with delivery Vietnam, an Ultramax with delivery Thailand was agreed at $13,400/d. A couple of Dolphin with dely SE China were booked at $11,000/d to carry nickel ore from Philippines to China. The Indonesian coal trade to China showed an Ultramax fixed at $16,500/d with delivery Philippines, a Tess58 at $13,750/d basis dely Spore and a 55,600 dwt Dolphin-type at $10,250/d from EC China. An Ultramax with dely N China was taken for a trip via E Australia to WC India at $10,249/d and a 57,500 dwt with dely Spore fixed a trip via Indonesia to WC India/Pakistan range at $14,500/d. On Far East/SE Asia trades a Dolphin got $9,000/d for a trip from CJK to SE Asia and another unit with dely Japan got $10,650/d for a trip via CIS Pacific to Philippines. A Dolphin got $12,950/d basis dely Philippines for 7/9 months and a Tess58 got $13,000/d for 4/6 months basis dely Indo. Handysize levels were very similar to the previous week and a 31,700 dwt with dely SE China was booked at $9,250/d for a trip via Australia to SE Asia.

US

Atl

anti

c

Sou

th A

mer

ica

4

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

BHSI TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC



BSI TC Avg. usd/day 13,395 13,327 +0.5% +14.3%

S4A 58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 20,791 20,747 +0.2% +19.4%

S9 58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 12,621 12,546 +0.6% +10.1%

S1B 58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 23,914 23,493 +1.8% +37.8%

S11 58 Pacific r/v usd/day 11,650 11,650 +0.0% +7.9%


BHSI TC Avg. usd/day 9,536 9,260 +3.0% +2.0%


Sup

ram

axH

and

y

Rates

N E

uro

pe

M

edit

err

anea

n

Unit 12-Oct 05-Oct W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Oct (18) usd/day 20,283 18,882 +7.4% +8.2%

Nov (18) usd/day 24,250 21,999 +10.2% +29.4%

Dec (18) usd/day 24,583 22,429 +9.6% +31.1%

Q1 (19) usd/day 15,542 15,170 +2.5% -17.1%

Q2 (19) usd/day 16,500 15,962 +3.4% -12.0%

Q3 (19) usd/day 21,417 21,170 +1.2% +14.2%

Cal 19 usd/day 20,356 19,997 +1.8% +8.6%

Cal 20 usd/day 20,783 20,916 -0.6% +10.9%

Cal 21 usd/day 17,417 17,595 -1.0% -7.1%

Oct (18) usd/day 14,083 13,550 +3.9% -1.0%

Nov (18) usd/day 13,583 13,092 +3.8% -4.5%

Dec (18) usd/day 12,925 12,763 +1.3% -9.2%

Q1 (19) usd/day 12,279 12,238 +0.3% -13.7%

Q2 (19) usd/day 13,125 13,108 +0.1% -7.7%

Q3 (19) usd/day 12,700 12,613 +0.7% -10.7%

Cal 19 usd/day 12,888 12,850 +0.3% -9.4%

Cal 20 usd/day 12,263 12,371 -0.9% -13.8%

Cal 21 usd/day 10,663 10,746 -0.8% -25.1%

Oct (18) usd/day 13,471 13,483 -0.1% +0.6%

Nov (18) usd/day 13,496 13,400 +0.7% +0.8%

Dec (18) usd/day 13,079 12,988 +0.7% -2.4%

Q1 (19) usd/day 11,871 11,846 +0.2% -11.4%

Q2 (19) usd/day 12,867 12,875 -0.1% -3.9%

Q3 (19) usd/day 12,479 12,492 -0.1% -6.8%

Cal 19 usd/day 12,617 12,628 -0.1% -5.8%

Cal 20 usd/day 11,925 12,000 -0.6% -11.0%

Cal 21 usd/day 10,925 10,950 -0.2% -18.4%

Oct (18) usd/day 9,344 9,356 -0.1% -2.0%

Nov (18) usd/day 9,538 9,563 -0.3% +0.0%

Dec (18) usd/day 9,244 9,250 -0.1% -3.1%

Q1 (19) usd/day 8,825 8,838 -0.1% -7.5%

Q2 (19) usd/day 9,425 9,413 +0.1% -1.2%

Q3 (19) usd/day 9,313 9,294 +0.2% -2.3%

Cal 19 usd/day 9,335 9,332 +0.0% -2.1%

Cal 20 usd/day 9,231 9,225 +0.1% -3.2%

Cal 21 usd/day 9,088 9,081 +0.1% -4.7%

Han

dys

ize

Cap

esi

zeP

anam

axSu

pra

max

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)

banchero costa dry cargo chartering

Dry Bulk FFAs (Baltic Forward Assessments)

5

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)



TD1 MEG-USG ws 32.18 33.59 -4.2% +25.1%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day -5,293 -5,277 -0.3% +5.8%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 83.42 86.63 -3.7% +30.0%

TD3C MEG-China ws 82.25 85.38 -3.7% +29.0%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 37,205 38,517 -3.4% +42.5%

TD15 WAF-China ws 79.63 82.67 -3.7% +24.1%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day 15,956 16,620 -4.0% +55.8%


TD6 BSea-Med ws 105.53 106.00 -0.4% +14.1%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 20,808 20,196 +3.0% +45.0%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 103.18 93.18 +10.7% +38.9%

MEG-EAST ws 92.50 80.00 +15.6% +15.6%

MEG-WEST ws 37.50 30.00 +25.0% +7.1%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 20,583 17,575 +17.1% +71.9%


TD7 NSea-Cont ws 118.06 704.72 -83.2% -2.1%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 10,854 2,187 +396.3% -42.7%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 102.50 88.61 +15.7% +5.7%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 18,579 10,104 +83.9% +14.8%

TD19 Med-Med ws 102.78 107.22 -4.1% -34.0%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 5,429 6,277 -14% -78.0%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 135.28 109.83 +23.2% +17.2%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 10,509 2,464 +326.5% +22.5%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 163.61 128.89 +26.9% +9.5%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 18,015 6,645 +171.1% +9.7%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 13,161 5,751 +128.8% -17.4%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 15,000 15,000 +0.0% -3.2%

VLC

CSu

ezm

axA

fram

ax

tanker chartering banchero costa

Very low levels of activity in the VLCC market due to charterers stepping back after rates reached their highest levels recently. Rates started to soften and WS80 was the rate for Middle East Gulf to China basis 270,000 mts. From West Africa the situation was not different; rates went softly to WS79 for trips to China. In North Europe, Hound Point paid $6.8 mln basis 270,000 mts for South Korea discharge. The Suezmax market recorded an active week with particular reference to cargoes coming from West Africa where rates reached WS107.5 for Europe discharge. Black Sea activity had been steady with rates assessing WS105 for Black sea/Med. A couple of cargoes from Libya were booked to Far Eastern discharge and a voyage to Ningbo paid $3.475m account UNIPEC. In North America, an East Coast Mexico to Europe reached WS82.5 baisis 147,000 mts. East of Suez, a voyage from Fujairah to China was covered at WS95 and Ras Tanura/Brazil at WS49.5 both based on 130,000 mts to be loaded. Aframax recorded good levels of activity in North Europe with Baltic/UKC rates assessing over WS100 basis 100,000 mts and in the Caribbean where a trip to US Gulf reached WS160 basis 70,000 mts. TransAtlantic voyages had been done a couple of times during the week, US Gulf/Europe paid WS115 for 70,000 mts. The East of Suez market recorded an active week as well with rates peaking at WS130 for Middle East Gulf/East and Singapore/North China too. The Med market is softly going down, CrossMed was in the low WS100 and Black Sea stabilized at WS105 for Med discharge and WS102.5 for UKCont. Few Eastbound cargoes were quoted 80,000 mts from Algeria to Cilacap paid $2.575 mln.

Crude Oil Tanker Market

6

Rates


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

tanker chartering banchero costa

Product Tanker Market

Delays at Turkish Straits for Daylight Restricted Vessels

LR2 owners had to accept WS100 for MEG/Japan basis 75,000 mts (around $5,000/d TCE), while LR1 involved on the same route maintained WS122.5 (around $5,000/d TCE). Rates for MEG/UKC were unchanged at $1.9 mln on LR2. West of Suez, both LR1 and LR2 experienced an improving week with UKC/Japan voyages assessed at $1.8 mln and $2.1 mln respectively.

The market for clean Handysize registered hiking rates on the BSea/Med trades jumping to WS180/182.5 for 30,000 mts; rates for CrossMed trades followed but remained some 30 points behind at WS152.5/155 level. In Cont Clean Handies registered the highest rates of the latest 6 months on the Baltic/UKC routes with WS165 recorded for CrossCont trades. Clean MR softened over the last 7 days and ended the week at WS130 level for 37,000 mts Cont/TA while rates for voyages back to Europe on 38,000 mts jumped back WS100.

A rather quiet week in Med for dirty Handies and MRs, a few cargoes were fixed from Med and BSea, but the tonnage list was getting longer and rates softened a bit; most of the week retes were around 30@215 for CrossMed and around 30@235 from BSea, approaching the week-end fixtures were around WS212.5 and WS232.5. IN UKC rates remained steady at 30@155 and 45@125/130 for CrossUKC routs. Panamax were also steady around 55@115 and at the end of the week a [email protected] was put on subs.



TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 100.00 102.13 -2.1% -20.2%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 4,994 4,648 +7.4% -60.7%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 21.74 22.40 -3.0% -5.2%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 123.06 121.94 +0.9% -3.1%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 7,013 6,137 +14.3% -21.1%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 130.00 153.33 -15.2% +7.6%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 3,769 6,756 -44.2% -8.2%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 103.75 85.00 +22.1% +45.6%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day 480 -2,905 +116.5% +122.0%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 161.43 147.14 +9.7% +15.3%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 155.19 149.00 +4.2% -9.0%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 165.17 161.61 +2.2% -29.9%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 7,552 6,552 +15.3% -38.9%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/mt 7.59 7.45 +1.9% -17.9%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 4,879 3,622 +34.7% -59.2%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 8,332 7,419 +12.3% +86.0%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 15,500 15,500 +0.0% +0.0%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 13,000 13,000 +0.0% -10.3%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 116.56 114.69 +1.6% +14.4%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 4 0 K) ws 155.42 152.92 +1.6% -9.7%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 235.0 220.0 +6.8% +46.9%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 210.0 200.0 +5.0% +40.0%

Cle

anD

irty

Rates


Northbound days 3.0 4.0 -25.0% +50.0%

Southbound days 3.0 4.0 -25.0% +0.0%

600

700

800

900

1,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

Shanghai Container Freight Index

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

11/10/17 11/2/18 11/6/18 11/10/18

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

11/10/17 11/2/18 11/6/18 11/10/18

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700


ConTex index 475 481 -1.2% +18.5%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 11,800 12,010 -1.7% +36.8%



2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 10,871 11,010 -1.3% +23.0%



Charter rates remained flat whilst freight rates kept falling, in particular on Far East-South America routes since the beginning of September. Spot freight rates on the Asia-US West Coast have surged to the highest levels in more than five years despite a further round of trade tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S.

banchero costa containers

VHSS Containership Timecharter Assessment (source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

Containership Market

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

8


Comprehensive Index index 905 888 +1.9% +24.8%

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu 731 733 -0.3% +6.6%

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu 751 759 -1.1% +15.2%

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu 2,503 2,418 +3.5% +83.1%

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu 3,304 3,312 -0.2% +83.5%

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu 366 360 +1.7% -10.7%

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu 952 964 -1.2% -63.1%

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu 140 139 +0.7% -6.7%


Recent Fixtures

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

Northern Prelude 2009 4600 3080 no fixed to Milaha 3-5 m $11,500/d

Navios Delight 2008 4250 2805 no fixed to Yang Ming 40-90 days $11,000/d

Kiel Trader 2003 2526 1886 yes fixed to Rcl 6-7 m $10,000/d

Nickie B 2011 1368 870 yes fixed to Mcc 7-30 days $6,500/d

Kuo Hsiung 1993 1275 1120 yes extended to Cosco 3-5 m $9,750/d

Lindaunis 2012 1036 740 no fixed to Cma Cgm 6 m E7,000/d

100

105

110

115

120

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

Yen/USD Exchange

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

USD/Euro Exchange

20

30

40

50

Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18

Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Ultramax LR2 MR2

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 3.10 3.13 3.15 3.19 3.24 3.25

Euro 0.11 0.44 0.73 1.05 1.41 1.54

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 2.65 -0.32 -0.27

12 Months 2.96 -0.21 -0.17

banchero costa

H-Line Shipping signed 2 x Capesize at Hyundai Samho at $71 mln each with delivery during second half of 2020, the units will be dual fuel. Vessels will be fixed on a long TC with POSCO starting from 2021. CSIC Leasing ordered 4 Capesize units at Qingdao Beihai with delivery during 2020. All vessels will be Tier III and prices are estimated in the $50ies mln; the vessels will be chartered for 10 year to a German charterer. In the Ultramax segment 4 units (tier II) were contracted by AVIC International Leasing with delivery during 2020. Rongtua Shipping and Taizhou Yongan Shipping ordered 2 and 1 units (around 61,000 dwt) for domestic trading. In the gas segment, an option was exercised by Thenamaris for a LNG unit 174,000 cbm at HHI with delivery expected in 2021.

Newbuilding Market

Newbuilding Reported Orders

Indicative Newbuilding Prices (China)

sale & purchase

Interest Rates

Interest Rate Swaps

9

Unit 01-Sep-18 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 47.9 +0.8% +8.5%

Ultramax usd mln 26.2 +0.5% +9.3%

Supramax usd mln 23.0 +0.6% +9.4%

VLCC usd mln 82.8 +0.3% +7.2%

LR2 Coated usd mln 46.0 +0.4% +6.5%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.7 +0.2% +2.8%

12-Oct 05-Oct W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.16 1.15 +0.6% -2.4%

Yen/USD 112.2 113.7 -1.3% -0.1%

SK Won/USD 1,131 1,131 +0.1% -0.2%

Exchange Rates


Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

Bulk 180,000 2020 Hyundai Samho H-Line 71 2 units, LNG fuel

Bulk 180,000 2020 Qingdao Beihai CSIC n.a. Tier III

Bulk 63,500 2020 Yangzhou Dayang AVIC n.a. 8 units

LNG 174,000 cbm 2021 HHI Thenamarais n. a. Option declared

TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk Queen Halo 58,096 2010 Tsuneishi Cebu Undisclosed 15.2

Bulk Triton Seagull 56,058 2007 Mitsui Greek buyers 13.1

Bulk Ivy Unicorn 55,800 2011 IHI Undisclosed 15.5

Bulk Indigo Evolution 55,625 2010 Mitsui Greek buyers 15.6

Bulk Splendeur 33,400 2008 Shin Kochi Undisclosed 11

Bulk Gloria Hayne 28,392 1996 Imabari Chinese buyers 4.2

Crude Densa Crocodile 105,171 2015 Hyundai Latsis 63

Crude Densa Alligator 105,171 2013 Hyundai

Prod High Enterprise 45,967 2009 Shin Kurushima C.of Spring Marine 13.85

350

400

450

500

15/10/17 15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18

SubCon Demo Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dirty Tnk Clean Tnk Dry Bulk

15

20

25

30

35

15/10/17 15/2/18 15/6/18 15/10/18

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Panamax Aframax MR


Dry Bulk usd/ldt 436.0 439.0 -0.7% +11.0%

Dirty Tanker usd/ldt 448.0 451.0 -0.7% +11.7%

Clean Tanker usd/ldt 451.0 453.0 -0.4% +13.0%

sale & purchase banchero costa

Secondhand Market

Baltic Secondhand Assessments

Baltic Demolition Assessment (Subcontinent)

10


Capesize usd mln 36.2 36.1 +0.3% +10.2%

Panamax usd mln 21.7 21.8 -0.3% +7.7%

Supramax usd mln 18.4 18.4 +0.1% +9.0%

VLCC usd mln 62.2 62.0 +0.3% +2.5%

Aframax usd mln 29.5 29.4 +0.3% +1.1%

MR Product usd mln 26.0 26.0 -0.0% +10.7%


After being withdrawn from the marker during the beginning of September because the offers received were considered too low, the Nissen Kaiun Capesize Bulk Asia 181,380 dwt, built 2014 by Imabari is now reported committed in excess of $40 mln to undisclosed. Greek Buyers were reported as the buyers of the Post Panamax 38.034 m beam Ikan Kedewas 88,279 dwt, built 2006 by Imabari at $12.5 mln. There is still a big appetite in China for Panamax Bulker with 6 vessels reported sold last week: Yongji 77,672 dwt, built 2000 by Mitsui was reported sold at $8.7 mln, Hai Jing 75,928 dwt, built 2001 by Kanasashi sold at auction at $7.62 mln, AOM Milena 76,606 dwt, built 2009 by Shin Kasado sold at $17 mln, Navios Felicity 73,867 dwt, built 1997 by Sumitomo sold at $4.9 mln, Celerina 73,035 dwt, built 1999 by CSBS sold at $5.5 mln and New Herald 72,875 dwt, built 1997 by Daedong sold at $5.0 mln. 2 Supramaxes both Japanese built Ivy Unicorn, 55,800 dwt built 2011 by IHI and Indigo Evolution 55,625 dwt, built 2010 by Mitsui were reported sold at $15.5 mln and $15.6 mln respectively. Clients of Latsis were reported as the buyers of 2 x 105,000 dwt named Densa Crocodile and Densa Alligator for $63 mln enbloc. The MR High Enterprise 45,967 dwt, built 2009 by Shin Kurushima was reported sold at $13.85 mln to Client of Spring Marine.

Secondhand Reported Sales

news banchero costa

China's September iron ore imports rise ahead of winter curbs China's iron ore imports rose to their highest level in four months in September, according to customs data issued on Friday, as steel mills ramped up output ahead of winter production restrictions. Arrivals of steelmaking ingredient iron ore increased to 93.47 million tonnes last month from 89.35 million tonnes in August, but were down from a record 102.83 million tonnes a year ago, according to data from General Administration of Customs. Japan Oct-Dec crude steel output may rise on increasing local demand- METI Japan's crude steel output for the October to December quarter is expected to rise from a year earlier on solid local demand for automobiles as well as industrial and construction machinery, the industry ministry said. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) estimated crude steel output would rise to 26.45 million tonnes for the three-month period, up 0.2 percent from a year earlier. This follows a small year-on-year drop in the previous quarter. China Sept aluminium, steel exports hold steady as trade row goes on China's aluminium exports fell slightly in September from the previous month as a narrowing price arbitrage to international markets reduced the incentive to ship metal overseas, while steel shipments edged higher. China's unwrought aluminium and aluminium product exports were 507,000 tonnes last month, the General Administration of Customs said on Friday, up 37 percent from 370,000 tonnes in September 2017. Glencore wins cut to coal carrying costs out of Newcastle Australia's competition regulator said on Monday the Port of Newcastle must reduce its charges for ships entering the port to carry coal for Glencore, in a big win for the global miner. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said Port of Newcastle Operations Pty Ltd (PNO) should cut its current rate by about 20 percent to A$0.61 per gross tonne, backdated to 2016. The port said it would contest the decision. Fall in China's high-ash coal demand pushes Australian cargoes to Europe, Africa The slowdown in Australian thermal coal trade to China is resulting in shipments of off-specification coal traveling longer distances to Europe and even Africa, according to an analysis of shipping data from cFlow, Platts trade flow software. Some Australian high-ash coal cargoes have been sold even to Egypt, an emerging market. China's September soybean imports fall, but ahead of expectations China's soybean imports fell slightly in September from a year earlier but were ahead of market expectations, boosted by large volumes from Brazil as buyers tried to shore up stocks, customs data showed on Friday. Soybean imports are being closely watched after Beijing in July imposed a 25 percent tariff on U.S. products worth $34 billion, including soybeans, in response to U.S. penalties on Chinese goods worth the same amount. Russia proposes to speed up plans to boost grain exports Russia's Agriculture Ministry has proposed speeding up an increase in the country's grain export capacity part of efforts by one of the world's largest wheat exporters to move into new markets. Russia aims to increase its grain export capacity by 25 million tonnes to 77.7 million tonnes by 2024, agriculture minister Dmitry Patrushev said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin and other officials on Tuesday. Vietnam could halt imports of wheat containing thistle seed -report Vietnam might halt imports of wheat cargoes containing cirsium arvense, or thistle seed, while suggesting local importers should seek supplies from Kazakhstan, Australia and Argentina, local media reported on Thursday. Wheat importer Vietnam, whose main suppliers include Russia, Australia and Canada, has been battling with imported wheat contaminated with thistle seed since May and has sought measures to stop the issue. Brazil sugar output sharply down late in Sept Brazil's center-south sugar output fell to only 1.28 million tonnes in the second half of September as rains reduced crushing activity and mills continued to allocate minimum amounts of cane to sugar production, industry group Unica said on Wednesday. Production of the sweetener was 55 percent lower than seen in the same period a year earlier, while cane crushing fell 31 percent to 27.6 million tonnes. India to export raw sugar for first time in 3 years as global prices rally Indian sugar mills have signed deals to export raw sugar for the first time in three years as a rally in New York prices to seven-month highs along with government subsidies made exports lucrative, five dealers and two industry officials told Reuters. Mills in the world's second biggest sugar producer were reluctant to sign new export contracts until recently as global prices were trading far below local prices. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

Dry Bulk Commodities


news banchero costa

Oil & Gas World's top traders divided on oil outlook as Iran sanctions loom The world's biggest trading houses said on Wednesday they saw oil prices not falling below $65 per barrel and possibly breaking above $100 next year as U.S. sanctions on Iran reduce crude exports from the Islamic republic. The range of views illustrates deep uncertainty among top industry players over the outlook, given the reimposition of sanctions on Iran and forecasts of slowing economies and energy demand in 2019, potentially leading to choppy trading. OPEC says oil market well supplied, wary of 2019 surplus OPEC sees the oil market as well supplied and is wary of creating a glut next year, the group's secretary-general said on Thursday, suggesting producers are in no rush to expand a June agreement that raises output. Oil prices have rallied this year on expectations that U.S. sanctions on Iran will strain supplies by lowering shipments from OPEC's third-largest oil producer. Brent crude last week reached $86.74, the highest since 2014. U.S. oil output to grow faster than expected to record in 2018 -EIA U.S. crude oil output in 2018 is expected to grow more quickly than previously forecast to a record high, according to a monthly U.S. government forecast on Wednesday. Crude production was expected to rise 1.39 million barrels per day to 10.74 million bpd this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). U.S. oil firms restore operations in storm-tossed Gulf of Mexico Major oil producers and drillers, including Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp and BP Plc, on Thursday began returning workers and restoring output at U.S. Gulf of Mexico facilities shut as Hurricane Michael blew through. The U.S. offshore safety regulator's daily update showed that 40 percent of Gulf oil output and 29 percent of natural gas production was locked in, slightly less than a day earlier. U.S. oil exports to Asia may fall further after surge in tanker rates Rising shipping rates have increased the costs of shipping oil from the United States to Asia and may further the restrict the flow of U.S. oil to the region later this year, multiple trade and shipping sources said on Thursday. Freight rates for tankers that carry crude oil have soared globally, buoyed by peak seasonal demand, weather disruptions and higher bunker fuel costs, the sources said. China's September crude imports mark highest in 4 months China's daily crude oil imports in September hit their highest level since May, customs data showed on Friday, as independent refiners looked to shore up their inventory ahead of winter. Shipments into the country last month stood at 37.12 million tonnes, or 9.05 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 9.04 million bpd in August and marking their third straight monthly rise, according to numbers from the General Administration of Customs. India's oil imports from Iran edged up in September due to loading delays India's oil imports from Iran edged up in September from the previous month as refiners pushed back loading of some August cargoes due to a delay in obtaining government approval to use Iranian ships and insurance, data obtained from sources showed. Last month, India shipped in about 528,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil from Iran, about 1 percent more than the 523,000 bpd of August and about 27 percent more than a year earlier, tanker arrival data obtained from shipping and industry sources showed. S.Korea's Sept imports of Iran oil fall to zero ahead of U.S. sanctions South Korea did not import any oil from Iran in September for the first time in six years, before U.S. sanctions against the Middle East country take effect in November, customs data showed. The last time South Korea did not import oil from Iran was September 2012, according to customs data. A third Washington refinery curbs operations after natgas pipe fire Andeavor's Anacortes plant on Thursday joined a list of oil refineries in Washington state forced to shut or curb operations after natural gas supply to the facilities was disrupted by a pipeline fire in Canada on Tuesday. Andeavor, which was just acquired by Marathon Petroleum Corp last week, said it had begun shutting various units at the 120,000 barrel-per-day Anacortes refinery due to a disruption in natural gas supply to the plant "following an upset in a third party pipeline.“ U.S. crude stocks rise as refining slows, gasoline builds unexpectedly -EIA U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose last week for the third consecutive weekly build as refineries continued to reduce output for seasonal maintenance, while gasoline inventories grew unexpectedly, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. Crude inventories rose 6 million barrels in the week to Oct. 5, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.6 million barrels. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

market report - week 41/2018 12

300

400

500

600

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

40

60

80

100

120

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

40

50

60

70

80

90

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

200

400

600

800

12/10/17 12/2/18 12/6/18 12/10/18

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 IFO 180 MGO


Wheat usd/t 516.8 524.0 -1.4% +17.5%

Corn usd/t 372.0 368.8 +0.9% +5.5%

Soybeans usd/t 864.8 871.3 -0.7% -13.5%

Palm Oil usd/t 527.5 535.1 -1.4% -19.1%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 70.5 69.2 +1.8% +12.0%

Iron Ore China @Tangshan rmb/t 548.0 536.0 +2.2% +16.6%

Rebar in China rmb/t 4,501 4,499 +0.1% +9.8%

Plate in China rmb/t 4,450 4,458 -0.2% +3.3%

HR Coil in China rmb/t 4,370 4,388 -0.4% +1.6%

CR Sheet in China rmb/t 4,856 4,868 -0.2% +3.0%


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 99.2 102.3 -3.0% +11.5%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 109.2 113.7 -3.9% +14.0%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 214.0 211.5 +1.2% +17.9%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 81.4 83.3 -2.3% +42.4%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 71.9 73.8 -2.5% +40.0%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 80.0 84.3 -5.1% +44.2%

Natural Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 3.18 3.19 -0.3% +6.0%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 1.96 2.07 -5.3% +21.0%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 721.8 730.0 -1.1% +33.7%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 697.5 725.7 -3.9% +33.6%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 95.8 97.8 -2.0% +41.7%


Rotterdam usd/t 466.5 479.5 -2.7% +46.9%

Gibraltar usd/t 490.0 495.5 -1.1% +46.3%

Singapore usd/t 512.5 524.5 -2.3% +50.7%

Rotterdam usd/t 511.0 529.5 -3.5% +47.9%

Gibraltar usd/t 522.5 523.0 -0.1% +48.2%

Singapore usd/t 543.0 546.0 -0.5% +49.2%

Rotterdam usd/t 703.5 708.5 -0.7% +41.8%

Gibraltar usd/t 750.0 760.0 -1.3% +39.1%

Singapore usd/t 743.0 755.0 -1.6% +44.4%

IFO

38

0IF

O 1

80

MG

O

banchero costa commodities

Oil & Gas Prices

Coal Prices

Iron Ore and Steel Prices

Agricultural

Bunker Prices


head office: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy)

phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]

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