Banco Daycoval S.A.

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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 15 December 2021 Update RATINGS Banco Daycoval S.A. Domicile Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil Long Term CRR Not Assigned Long Term Debt Ba2 Type Senior Unsecured - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Long Term Deposit Ba2 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Farooq Khan +55.11.3043.6087 Vice President-Senior Analyst [email protected] Igor Melo +55.11.3043.6065 Associate Analyst [email protected] Alexandre Albuquerque +55.11.3043.7356 VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Ceres Lisboa +55.11.3043.7317 Associate Managing Director [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Banco Daycoval S.A. Update to credit analysis Summary Banco Daycoval S.A. 's (Daycoval) has a Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of ba2, which incorporates the bank's consistent earnings generation, historically supported by a disciplined risk profile, relatively low concentration risk and high reserve buffers. Daycoval's low leverage ratios and adequate capitalization are also important factors that support the bank's operations in a growing credit cycle. Daycoval's core businesses are lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), large companies and payroll loans to public servants, where margins are likely to be compressed because of fierce competition, particularly in the secured products. Daycoval also earns fees form asset management and capital market activities. Daycoval's global scale deposit rating is Ba2, based on its BCA of ba2, which is at the same level as the Government of Brazil's sovereign debt rating of Ba2. Exhibit 1 Rating scorecard - Key financial ratios As of September 2021 2.2% 9.4% 2.5% 45.7% 20.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Banco Daycoval S.A. (BCA: ba2) Median ba2-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors For the problem loan and profitability ratios, we review the latest three year-end ratios, as well as the most recent intra-year ratio, where applicable, and base our starting point ratio on the weaker of the average of this period and the latest figure. For the capital ratio, we use the latest figure. For the funding structure and liquid asset ratios, we use the latest year-end figures. Source: Moody's Investors Service

Transcript of Banco Daycoval S.A.

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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION15 December 2021

Update

RATINGS

Banco Daycoval S.A.Domicile Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo,

Brazil

Long Term CRR Not Assigned

Long Term Debt Ba2

Type Senior Unsecured - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Long Term Deposit Ba2

Type LT Bank Deposits - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Farooq Khan +55.11.3043.6087Vice President-Senior [email protected]

Igor Melo +55.11.3043.6065Associate [email protected]

AlexandreAlbuquerque

+55.11.3043.7356

VP-Senior [email protected]

Ceres Lisboa +55.11.3043.7317Associate Managing [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Banco Daycoval S.A.Update to credit analysis

SummaryBanco Daycoval S.A.'s (Daycoval) has a Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of ba2, whichincorporates the bank's consistent earnings generation, historically supported by a disciplinedrisk profile, relatively low concentration risk and high reserve buffers. Daycoval's low leverageratios and adequate capitalization are also important factors that support the bank'soperations in a growing credit cycle. Daycoval's core businesses are lending to small andmedium-sized enterprises (SMEs), large companies and payroll loans to public servants,where margins are likely to be compressed because of fierce competition, particularly inthe secured products. Daycoval also earns fees form asset management and capital marketactivities. Daycoval's global scale deposit rating is Ba2, based on its BCA of ba2, which is atthe same level as the Government of Brazil's sovereign debt rating of Ba2.

Exhibit 1

Rating scorecard - Key financial ratiosAs of September 2021

2.2% 9.4%2.5%

45.7% 20.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid BankingAssets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

Banco Daycoval S.A. (BCA: ba2) Median ba2-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

For the problem loan and profitability ratios, we review the latest three year-end ratios, as well as the most recent intra-yearratio, where applicable, and base our starting point ratio on the weaker of the average of this period and the latest figure. For thecapital ratio, we use the latest figure. For the funding structure and liquid asset ratios, we use the latest year-end figures.Source: Moody's Investors Service

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Credit strengths

» Traditional lender to SMEs, with a highly regarded management team and strong risk governance

» Stability in its core earnings stream, supported by portfolio granularity and product diversification

» Strong capitalization

» Diversified funding structure, which supports the expansion of its retail portfolio (longer tenor), avoiding tenor mismatches

Credit challenges

» Increasing competition on fee income is likely to strain margins.

» Strong loan growth, especially in SME lending, can increase asset risks in case of a lower than expected economic rebound.

Rating outlookDaycoval's rating has a stable outlook, reflecting our view that the trajectory of the bank's solvency and liquidity over the next 12-18months will be in line with its Ba2 rating. In addition, the bank's global scale local-currency deposit rating and foreign-currency seniorunsecured debt rating have a stable outlook, in line with the stable outlook on Brazil's sovereign bond rating.

Factors that could lead to an upgradeThere is currently no upward pressure on Daycoval's rating because it is at the same level as Brazil's sovereign bond rating. An upgradeof Brazil's bond rating would likely lead to upward pressure on the bank's BCA and deposit rating.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeNegative rating pressure would arise if the sovereign bond rating is downgraded because the bank's BCA is at the same level as thesovereign rating. Pressure on the ba2 standalone assessment could result from a deterioration in Daycoval's asset quality, combinedwith a significant reduction in its earnings, which could arise from a rapid deterioration in the bank's SME loan book or from increasingborrower-concentration risk. Significant loan growth could particularly compromise the bank's capital structure and asset-qualityindicators, whose preservation is key at this rating level.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

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Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Banco Daycoval S.A. (Consolidated Financials) [1]

09-212 12-202 12-192 12-182 12-172 CAGR/Avg.3

Total Assets (BRL Million) 57,157.9 49,159.8 34,845.0 28,979.7 23,786.3 26.34

Total Assets (USD Million) 10,489.8 9,464.4 8,662.1 7,477.2 7,170.8 10.74

Tangible Common Equity (BRL Million) 4,632.4 3,840.2 3,108.5 2,769.3 2,593.0 16.74

Tangible Common Equity (USD Million) 850.2 739.3 772.7 714.5 781.7 2.34

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 2.0 1.8 1.7 3.2 4.2 2.65

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 9.4 9.9 10.9 11.2 12.1 10.76

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 11.4 11.1 9.3 15.0 17.9 13.05

Net Interest Margin (%) 9.1 10.4 11.7 11.5 10.7 10.75

PPI / Average RWA (%) 6.9 8.3 7.7 8.0 7.1 7.66

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 2.5 2.4 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.45

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 32.6 32.3 39.4 35.1 45.3 36.95

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 40.5 45.7 43.2 43.3 43.5 43.25

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 20.3 20.0 14.0 16.7 19.5 18.15

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 191.8 211.8 254.5 284.7 265.3 241.65

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [2] Basel III - fully loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP. [3] May include rounding differences because ofthe scale of reported amounts. [4] Compound annual growth rate (%) based on the periods for the latest accounting regime. [5] Simple average of periods for the latest accounting regime.[6] Simple average of Basel III periods.Sources: Moody's Investors Service and company filings

ProfileBanco Daycoval S.A. (Daycoval) is a Sao Paulo-based full-service bank that provides loans to SMEs, auto finance and payroll loans toindividuals. The bank has 46 offices that offer lending products to SME, as well as a branch in the Cayman Islands. Established in 1968,Daycoval is 100% owned by the Dayan family. As of September 2021, Daycoval held a 0.5% market share of the system's assets, 0.6%of loans and 0.4% of total deposits.

Detailed credit considerationsRising asset risks due to strong growth, particularly in the SME portfolioDaycoval's core operation to SMEs (75.3% of total loans in September 2021) increased 35.9% for the 12 months that ended September2021. Although the bank is supported by a stringent risk control over collateral-backing credit activities, the smaller companiessegment remain highly vulnerable to uncertainties around the timing and traction of the economic recovery. Any change in the currentrebounding path could likely hurt the SME segment again.

In the 12 months that ended September 2021, Daycoval's total loans, including guarantees and sureties, increased 31.5%, but remainedrelatively stable from June 2021 with a 2.9% increased in the quarter. The credit expansion reflected the bank's strong participationin the government program FGI-PEAC in 2020, which represented BRL6.9 billion of Daycoval's total credit portfolio as of September2021, a representation of 17%. The program is directed to small companies funded by the national development bank Banco Nac.Desenv. Economico e Social - BNDES (Ba2 stable, ba2), which are backed by federal government insurance. At the same time, Daycovalcontinued to prioritize shorter-term loans that are strongly collateralized, which would allow it to rapidly reduce the size of its loanbook in case of an unexpected turn in macro conditions.

The payroll loan portfolio represented 20.6% of total loans in September 2021. The portfolio grew 4.6% in the quarter and 20.8%in the last twelve months. 39% of the origination during the quarter came from refinancing public servants and retirees' other loans,taking advantage of the product's higher margin. In September 2021, problem loans in the payroll portfolio stood at 5.3%, lower thanthe 6.3% in December 2020 and September 2020.

In terms of auto loans, new origination boosted in the quarter responding to a significant rebound in credit demand, but this portfolioonly accounted for 3.2% of gross loans. The bank remains cautiously positive on the segment, attempting to the high unemploymentlevels, an important driver for Daycoval's risk appetite.

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As of September 2021, total problem loans remained flat at 1.6%, as reported by the bank. Daycoval has additional provisions ofBRL600 million as of September 2021, however, its loan loss reserves reduced to 229.6% of problem loans from 313.0% in September2020, due to the higher level of delinquencies in the quarter.

Daycoval has a more diversified portfolio than that of some of its medium-sized peers, and the current growth in the SME portfoliodoes not reflect a change in its strategy, but an increase in opportunities for the bank as the economy gradually recovers.

Strong capitalization, maintained through the cycles and above that of its peersIn September 2021, Daycoval reported a regulatory Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 12.9% (above the minimum requirement of8%). A BRL290 million local perpetual Additional Tier 1 note was issued in H1 2020, which is around 1% of the total Tier 1 capital. Perour capital metrics, the tangible common equity ratio was 9.4% in September 2021, and it is adjusted by applying a 100% risk weightto the bank's government securities holdings and partial credit to deferred tax assets related to the provisions for loan losses, accordingto our standard adjustments for Brazilian banks. The adequate capitalization level sustained by the bank also reflects the conservativerisk guidelines pursued by management and provides strong loss-absorption capacity in times of stress.

The diversification of its product portfolio provided some support to earnings recurrence, because the bank was able to manage specificportfolio risks by exploring opportunities in different cycles, thereby maintaining consistent revenue generation.

Growing pressure on margins results from increasing competitionDaycoval has a history of strong performance and recurring earnings generation. We expect Daycoval's credit costs to increase in thenext quarters and the bottom-line result to continue to be affected by a moderation in business volumes and high credit costs.

For the first nine months of 2021, the bank's net interest margin declined to 9.1% from 10.9% in the year-earlier period because oflower yields on its loan book and lower trading gains affected by low policy rates in the twelve months period. Competition in its coresegment will likely arise from fintechs as well as from larger banks as loan growth continue its recuperation along 2022. Although thesefactors have negative implications for the bank's future earnings generation, we expect them to be partially offset by a higher fee-based income, as well as efficiency gains from innovation and technology. The bank's operating expenses increased 22% in the first ninemonths of 2021, compared to a year earlier as a result of higher investments in technology and a 20% increase in employee base.

Daycoval reported a net income of BRL1.1 billion for the first nine months of 2021, 13.2% higher than in the first three quarters of 2020.Excluding the foreign-exchange variation effect on the hedge on external funding and credit operations, as well as on mark-to-market,the recurring bottom-line result was BRL965.8 million for the first nine months of the year, still up 10.9% from the year-earlier period.The improvement was mainly driven by lower credit costs. The bank's net income-to-tangible assets ratio decreased to 2.5% year todate in September 2021 from 2.9% for 2020, still well above that of other medium-sized banks in Brazil with similar business profiles.

Liquidity management is an intrinsic vulnerability, despite a diversified funding mixDaycoval has vigilant liquidity management and funding diversification, which support its business expansion into longer-term loans.As a niche bank, however, Daycoval is largely exposed to a highly confidence-sensitive wholesale funding mix, an intrinsic feature ofmedium-sized institutions. To address this negative driver, management has been focusing its efforts on successfully replacing short-term funding with medium-term funding sources, such as market issuances of local-currency bank notes (letras financeiras, includingthose with perpetual maturity issued in February and April 2020; total amount of BRL290 million). This amount became part of theComplementary Capital (Level I) in H1 2020.

Since 2020, Daycoval has focused on enhancing funding diversification as well as term structure, through the issuance of financialbills, as well as increased deposits from corporate customers and individuals through its digital platform. Daycoval antecipated thepayment of Guaranteed Financial Bills issued in 2020, due to higher rate and the strategy of lengthening the maturities. The bank'smarket funding increased 1.6% in Q3 2021 and by 25.2% in the 12 months that ended September 2021. In 2021, Daycoval obtaineda $151 million IFC loan to finance SME customers, in addition to a BRL1 billion raised through the issuance of financial bills in October2021.

As of September 2021, deposits and deposit-like instruments represented roughly 48% of total funding; foreign-currency resources,including bonds, accounted for 21%; and local-currency bank notes (letras financeiras) 25.0%, including subordinated notes.

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Historically, Daycoval has maintained a comfortably high cash position (BRL8.4 billion as of September 2021) compared with that ofother medium-sized banks.

Daycoval's scores are influenced by Brazil's Moderate - Macro ProfileBrazil's Moderate- Macro Profile incorporates the country's a large-scale and highly diversified economy and limited exposure toexternal financing risk. Nonetheless, we expect a less benign operating environment for banks in 2022 stemming from a deceleration ineconomic activity fueled by the central bank's restrictive monetary policy to curb inflationary pressures. We forecast a real GDP growthof 0.6% for 2022, as opposed to a post-pandemic recovery of 4.8% in 2021. High unemployment and household indebtedness, alignedwith political noise from the presidential election, will contribute to reduce loan growth to one-digit rates from the high-teen ratesbanks will likely report in 2021.

Improving profits will support capital in coming quarters. Our view of Brazil's operating environment also considers challenges relatedto low government effectiveness and political developments that could still negatively affect the sweeping structural reform agenda.Our macro profile also reflects Brazil's favorable credit conditions that will benefit from a low interest rate environment supportingcredit demand, borrowers' repayment capacity and private consumption.

ESG considerationsDaycoval's exposure to environmental risks is low, consistent with our general assessment for the global banking sector. See ourenvironmental risk heat map for further information.

Overall, banks face moderate social risks. The most relevant social risks for banks arise from the way they interact with their customers.Social risks are particularly high in the area of data security and customer privacy, which are mitigated by sizable technologyinvestments and banks’ long track record of handling sensitive client data. Fines and reputational damage because of product mis-selling or other types of misconduct are a further social risk. Social trends are also relevant in a number of areas, such as shiftingcustomer preferences toward digital banking services increasing information technology cost, aging population concerns in severalcountries affecting demand for financial services or socially driven policy agendas that may translate into regulations that affect banks’revenue base. See our social risk heat map for further information.

Governance is highly relevant for Daycoval, as it is to all participants in the banking industry. Corporate governance weaknesses canlead to a deterioration in a bank’s credit quality, while governance strengths can benefit a bank’s credit profile. Governance risks arelargely internal rather than externally driven, and, for Daycoval, we do not have any particular governance concerns. Nonetheless,corporate governance remains a key credit consideration and requires ongoing monitoring.

Support and structural considerationsAffiliate supportNo affiliate support is assigned to Daycoval. However, a strong commitment from its shareholders is indicated through capitalinjection, when needed, and through a conservative leverage (credit to equity) ratio maintained by the bank through the cycles.

Government supportWe do not consider any probability of Daycoval receiving systemic support because of the bank's modest share in the deposit market.

Counterparty Risk (CR) AssessmentDaycoval's CR Assessment is positioned at Ba1(cr)/Not Prime(cr)Daycoval's CR Assessment of Ba1(cr) is one notch above its Adjusted BCA of ba2, based on our view that senior obligations representedby the CR Assessment will more likely be preserved than senior unsecured debt to minimize losses, avoid the disruption of criticalfunctions and limit contagion. The CR Assessment reflects an issuer's probability of defaulting on certain operating liabilities and othercontractual commitments that are less likely to be subject to the application of a resolution tool to ensure the continuity of operations.

Methodology and scorecardAbout Moody's Bank ScorecardOur scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our scorecard

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may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in Rating Committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

Daycoval's assigned BCA of ba2 is at the middle of the scorecard-indicated BCA range (see Exhibit 3). Moreover, the Financial Profilescore is ba2, the same as its BCA, which is at the same level as Brazil's Ba2 sovereign bond rating.

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Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 3

Banco Daycoval S.A.

Macro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Moderate

-100%

Factor HistoricRatio

InitialScore

ExpectedTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 2.2% baa3 ↔ baa3 Collateral and

provisioning coverageExpected trend

CapitalTangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets(Basel III - transitional phase-in)

9.4% b1 ↔ ba3 Expected trend

ProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 2.5% a3 ↔ baa2 Earnings quality Expected trend

Combined Solvency Score ba1 ba1LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 45.7% b3 ↔ b3 Expected trend

Liquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 20.0% ba2 ↔ ba2 Expected trend

Combined Liquidity Score b1 b1Financial Profile ba2Qualitative Adjustments Adjustment

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments 0Sovereign or Affiliate constraint Ba2BCA Scorecard-indicated Outcome - Range ba1 - ba3Assigned BCA ba2Affiliate Support notching 0Adjusted BCA ba2

Instrument Class Loss GivenFailure notching

Additionalnotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Rating 1 0 ba1 0 Ba1 Ba1Counterparty Risk Assessment 1 0 ba1 (cr) 0 Ba1(cr)Deposits 0 0 ba2 0 Ba2 Ba2Senior unsecured bank debt 0 0 ba2 0 Ba2[1] Where dashes are shown for a particular factor (or sub-factor), the score is based on non-public information.Source: Moody’s Investors Service

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Ratings

Exhibit 4

Category Moody's RatingBANCO DAYCOVAL S.A.

Outlook StableCounterparty Risk Rating Ba1/NPBank Deposits Ba2/NPBaseline Credit Assessment ba2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba2Counterparty Risk Assessment Ba1(cr)/NP(cr)Senior Unsecured Ba2

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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9 15 December 2021 Banco Daycoval S.A.: Update to credit analysis

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10 15 December 2021 Banco Daycoval S.A.: Update to credit analysis