52 Investment Guide 2013

Increased investment activity for Baltic region

With latvia adopting the euro next year and lithuania showing all the right signs to do the same in 2015, the economic outlook for the Baltics is increasingly positive. Higher GdP growth and inflation rates are expected to follow soon afterwards, mainly because of prices being rounded up and an anticipation of higher wages, as happened when Estonia made the same move in 2011.

Winston Norman

A ll three Baltic countries have achieved good economic and market recoveries, which has

made them more attractive to inves-tors. “International investors who were previously anxious about rela-tively small markets because of their economic situations, lower yields and lack of prime assets have become more and more interested in the Baltic real estate markets, which have proved well worth their attention,” Newsec pointed out in their latest property outlook report.

According to Colliers International, in each of the three countries the overall transaction volume during the first half of 2013 was over €472 million. Latvia was the leader with an investment volume over €176 million, followed by Lithuania with €150 million and Estonia with €146 million.

Several more transactions are expect-ed to be agreed by the end of the year, making the final figure around €500 mil-lion – a level close to 2008. Expectations are even more positive for 2014, which is expected to be twice as active and to regain the level of around €1 billion last seen in 2007.

Colliers put average yields for prime retail and office assets around 7.75 to 8 percent, with the most attractive proper-ties lower by up to 75 basis points and secondary properties standing between 9 and 9.5 percent. Yields for prime logistic centres and warehouses vary between 8.25 and 9 percent.

Following a very good first quarter, the Baltic investment market continued to remain active in Q2 as well, driven by investor demand for portfolios, which accounted for 30 percent of the total investment volume. The largest deal of

the half year was the sale of the SMI Group RE portfolio in Lithuania and Latvia to the local investment fund Lords LB Baltic Fund III, including eight retail assets (shopping centres and one DIY store) and one logistics centre. The total rentable area of the assets included in the portfolio exceeds 118,000 sqm. In Estonia, EfTEN Capital acquired the portfolio of five assets from EPI Baltic I for €30.5 million in Q2.

Retail continued to dominate the investment landscape, accounting for over 40 percent of all investment activity. Large-scale single transactions for €10 million or more included the purchase of the Prisma hypermarket properties in Narva (GLA 13,300 sqm) and Riga (GLA 11,500 sqm) by EfTEN and East Capital respectively.

Private consumption is driving retail activity and has begun to play a more significant role in the economic recovery, and retail trade in the Baltics is continu-ing to accelerate for the third year in a row. According to Newsec, pre-crisis hab-its are starting to reappear and people are willing to increase their spending on non-food and luxury products. This has provided a strong base for international brands such as H&M to enter the mar-kets, and the company will have opened stores in each of the Baltic capitals by this autumn.

Another important event was the open-ing of IKEA in Vilnius in mid-August, which received over 100,000 visitors dur-ing its first working week. Being the first

Guido Wolf -director Group development,Zabolis Partners / Baltic REd

The improv-i n g e co n o m i c situation in the Baltics provides a significant stimu-lus to the retail real estate mar-kets. Investors have switched from evaluation mode to making purchases; while developers are back on track delivering smaller, compact hyper-markets with additional gallery stores. New international brands are entering the market, pushing existing retailers and shopping centres up by adding a competi-tive edge. Vacancies are shrinking, if they still exist at all, with rent prices slowly, but surely increasing. The region offers good opportunities and exiting challenges in retail real estate to dedicated investors with a growth strategy.

Baltics Overview

Expectations are even more positive for 2014, which is expected to be twice as active

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53 Investment Guide 2013

Baltics

madis Raidma - CEO,East Capital Real Estate as

After the 2008-2009 crises, the real estate mar-kets in the Baltics have relatively quickly adopted the new reality with corrections in rent levels and the absorption o f va ca n c i e s . Improved property fundamentals have activated investors in late 2012 and 2013, so that transaction volumes have jumped up a notable +75 percent in the first half of 2013. Larger institutional investors are still of Scandinavian origin, but local investors and Russian capital is coming from more serious players. Activity in the property market seems to be accelerating further in 2014, as investors see the benefit of a low interest environment and the potential of rental revenues improving from still quite low levels. Strong macro fundamentals and relatively responsible public sector financial behaviour are distinguishing the Baltic market in a positive way, including low currency risk, as Estonia joined the euro in 2011 and Latvia joining from January 1st 2014.

tarmo Karotam -Fund manager, BPt Baltic Opportunity Fund

T h e i n v e s t -ment market has become more a c t i v e s i n c e 2009 and there has been sev-eral transactions made across the Baltic States with-in H1 of 2013. There are also larger portfolio deals in the making, which are expected to be completed by the year-end. The highest liquidity can be found in proven locations in the capital cities and that is the reason why many investors have narrowed their investment strategies to include only the capitals. The preferred asset class is retail, where vacancy is low and potential is seen in rental growth. The market can also be characterized by mature real estate funds trying to exit from their investments during 2013-2014 allowing investors with sufficient equity and local market knowledge to negoti-ate very attractive property deals. At this moment, investors from the Baltics, Nordics and Russia dominate the market. However, interest from global giants look-ing to pursue differentiating investment stories has now also been noted.

IKEA opened in the region, it has already affected other market players, some of which have had to make changes in their strategies. Although the major shopping centres in Vilnius have remained strong and continued to strengthen their posi-tions, the construction of several new, mostly local, supermarket projects is ex-pected in the next two years. Low vacan-cies in the prime shopping centres should remain at the same level, thus resulting in rising rents. The situation may change a little in 2014 and 2015 when several new shopping centres are due to open in Riga and Tallinn, but the increased supply should be absorbed within a few years.

At €144 million, investment in office property accounted for the second largest share of the transaction volume in the Baltic States in 1HY 2013, mostly due to the expansion of the Finnish-listed real estate company Technopolis Plc in Lithuania and the acquisition of a new office campus in Vilnius for €62.6 million.

Employment growth in the three Baltic capitals has also affected demand in the office market. Although relatively few new international companies have

30%

41%

14%

2%

5%

8%INVESTMENT VOLUMES BY SECTOR

O�ce

Retail

Industrial

Hotel

Mixed use

Residential

Source: Colliers International

Source: Colliers International

Source: Colliers International

up to EUR 1.0million

EUR 1-3 million

EUR 3-5 million

EUR 5-10 million

EUR 10-20 million

above EUR 20million

INVESTMENT TURNOVER BY SIZE

13%

41%

6%

15%

20%

5%

0

200

400

600

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1000

1200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1HY1013

EUR

mili

on

INVESTMENT VOLUMES

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

entered the markets during the last year and a half, those already operating have continued to expand, while the continuously growing local companies have tended to relocate their offices to bigger and more modern premises. The demand for prime offices in all three countries is expected to remain high and much of the new supply will come with signed agreements.

In 2009 both Vilnius and Riga suffered office-rental decreases twice as high as Tallinn. As a result, the recovery in these two cities was much faster during 2010-2012. However, Tallinn is the only city ex-pected to reach its pre-crisis level during the next three years.

Investment activity in the industrial segment declined in 1HY 2013 compared with the previous year. Industrial deals, which accounted for 23 percent of all the transactions in 1HY 2012 (mostly due East Capital’s acquisition of a 40,000 sqm VGP warehouse park near Tallinn for €24 million), amounted to only 14 percent in 1HY 2013.

While during the last three years inves-tors’ main focus has been on Estonia, in the first half of 2013 interest has moved more towards Latvia and Lithuania, sup-ported by strong economic recovery in the region and boosted by the antici-pated euro adoption in Latvia in 2014.

Additionally, investors are seeking op-portunities to diversify their portfolios by investing in other regions and/or sectors. Investors have capital available and are constantly looking for good quality cash-flow properties, while the willingness to take increased risks can be also observed among some investors.

Deniss Kairans, Managing Director and Partner at Colliers International in Latvia commented: “Talking about 2014 we do expect the situation will stay active on the investment commercial property market. Investors have capital available and are constantly looking for good quality cash flow properties. To the tightening competition for attractive properties and a shortage of core investment grade offerings on the market, the prime yields remain under pressure and might compress slightly.”

Margus Tinno, Partner, Manager, Valu-ation and Investment Advisory, Colliers International in Estonia added: “In gen-eral the small Baltic area can produce a surprisingly active investment market. The reason is most probably a stable, transpar-ent and modern environment accompa-nied with a favourable geographical loca-tion next to Nordic safe-haven economies and also the cash-rich Russia.” ■

Overview

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