Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27,...

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Transcript of Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27,...

Page 1: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target
Page 2: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

1 | P a g e

Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Recommendation

Buy at CMP and add on Dips

Add on dips to

Rs. 149-163

Target

Rs. 198

Time Horizon

4 Quarters

Industry

Sugar

CMP

Rs. 163

Company Background

Balrampur Chini Mills is an integrated sugar manufacturing company. It is engaged in the manufacturing of sugar,

ethanol and power. The Company's segments include Sugar, Distillery, Co-generation and Others. Its products

include molasses and bagasse. Company has sugar crushing capacity of approximately 76,500 tons of cane per

day, distillery capacity of 360 kiloliters (KL) per day and saleable co-generation capacity of approximately 163

megawatts (MW). The Company has over 10 manufacturing units at Balrampur, Babhnan, Tulsipur, Haidergarh,

Akbarpur, Rauzagaon, Mankapur, Kumbhi, Gularia and Maizapur in Uttar Pradesh.

Investment Highlights

Balrampur Chini Mills is one of the largest integrated sugar manufacturing companies in India.

Revenue/EBITDA/Net Profit witnessed 26%/124%/170% rise yoy respectively in FY17 on account of exceptionally

high sugar segment performance led by strong sugar realisation, especially on low cost opening inventory. Distillery

and cogeneration reported steady performance (Combined EBIT of Rs 330cr, +6% YoY). The management is

optimistic about business outlook on account of a) tight inventory scenario domestically leading to firm sugar

prices, b) expectation of sanity in sugarcane pricing, c) rising mix of early variety driving crushing volume (+7%

YoY in FY17; expect strong in FY18). Having started its operations four decades ago, company is now one of India’s

largest integrated sugar mills and most efficient sugar producers in the country and is best placed to capitalize on

the positive structural changes witnessed by the industry. Improving ethanol dynamics and robust balance sheet

will aid profitability. Company has done large prepayments in FY17 on the back of healthy cash accruals, leading

to substantial reduction in long term loans, thereby further strengthening the capital structure. The company has

RoE 39% and has bought back shares leading to cash outflow of ~Rs. 175 crore in FY17, the liquidity of the

company is expected to remain comfortable with unutilised working capital limits and adequate drawing power

going forward.

Balrampur Chini Mills has reported 182% increase in cash profit to Rs 697 crore over the previous year; this cash

profit was 108.5% higher than the previous cash profit peak reported by company during September 2009, which

proves investments made in business and capabilities during the last few years.

We feel EBIDTA margin would remain sustainably above 18%, unlike the past when companies struggled to turn

an operating profit in the face of unbearable cane SAP. In years of bumper output when sugar prices could dip

below ~Rs 30/kg, we believe that the government would 1) bridge the gap between (Fair & Remunerative Price)

FRP and linkage price from the price stabilization fund and/or 2) allow exports to relieve some of the inventory

overhang in the domestic market.

Kushal Rughani

[email protected]

HDFC Scrip Code BALCHI

BSE Code 500038

NSE Code BALRAMCHIN

Bloomberg BRCM:IN

CMP as on 24 Nov-17 163

Equity Capital (Rs cr) 23.5

Face Value (Rs) 1

Equity O/S (cr) 23.5

Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3822

Book Value (Rs) 85

Avg. 52 Week Vol 1752113

52 Week High (Rs) 182

52 Week Low (Rs) 115

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 40.90

Institutions 34.80

Non Institutions 24.30

PCG Risk Rating*

Yellow

* Refer Rating explanation

Page 3: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Albeit, management remain confident that formula‐based cane pricing would be a big step in ensuring

the sector’s stability as it would eliminate the huge production swings encountered in the past.

Company and its operations details

Company is one of India’s largest and most stable private sugar mills. It has cumulative sugar

manufacturing capacity of 76500 tonnes per day. It has invested in the distillery business with cumulative

capacity of 360 kilolitres per day. It has invested in bagasse-based cogeneration power facilities with

saleable power capacity of ~163 MW. The Company’s 10 manufacturing units are located in Balrampur,

Babhnan, Tulsipur, Haidergarh, Akbarpur, Rauzagaon, Mankapur, Kumbhi, Gularia, Maizapur and

Khalilabad in Uttar Pradesh, India. With improving prospects of sugar industry, we expect company to

report revenue of Rs 4389 Cr and Rs 4653 Cr in FY17 and FY18 respectively. With higher bagasse next

season, power segment is expected to register robust performance. We expect integrated players like

Balrampur to benefit immensely due to improving ethanol dynamics as the central government is mulling

to go after ethanol production in big way.

Sugar Segment

Balrampur Chini has capacity of 76500 TCD (tonnes of cane per day) across 10 business units in UP.

Sugar has remained the largest revenue generator for company yielding steady cash flows. Over the

years, the Company has been investing in enhancing the efficiencies of production process, which has

thereby helped in generating better quality sugar. Nearly ~12% of the production is refined sugar,

resulting in better price realisation. It has also initiated energy reduction measures that have helped in

generating more bagasse for by-product generation and has also strengthened revenues.

Sugar business accounts for nearly ~83% of total revenues of Rs 3641cr (FY17). This segment’s share

of revenue declined to 83% in FY17 against 86% in FY13 and going forward we believe, this segment will

maintain a share of ~80% over the next two years. Company has already invested in distillery capacities

to produce industrial alcohol and ethanol and is among the few in India to invest in distillery capacity

capable of consuming its entire molasses output captively, reducing its dependence on external sources.

The Company has ability to convert ethanol from molasses, enabling it to service OMC contracts. These

large volume contracts are backed by strong realizations and quicker off-take, thereby enhancing revenue

visibility and improving bottom-line.

Key Highlights

Balrampur Chini Mills is one of the largest integrated sugar manufacturing companies in India Revenue/EBITDA/Net Profit witnessed 26%/124%/170% rise yoy respectively in FY17 on account of exceptionally high sugar segment performance led by strong

sugar realisation, especially on low cost opening inventory We feel EBIDTA margin would remain sustainably above 18%, unlike the past when companies struggled to turn an operating profit in the face of unbearable cane SAP

Company is one of India’s largest and most stable private sugar mills. It has cumulative sugar manufacturing capacity of 76500 tonnes per day. It has invested in the distillery business with cumulative capacity of 360 kilolitres per day It has invested in bagasse-based cogeneration power facilities with saleable power capacity of ~163 MW out of total capacity of 266 MW Sugar business accounts for nearly ~83% of total revenues of Rs 3641cr (FY17) while the balance from Distillery and CoGen business We forecast 13% revenue cagr largely led by strong growth from sugar segment. Further, we expect that sustained sugar

prices of Rs 37-38 per kg will result in healthy PAT growth in FY19

Page 4: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Company has 266 MW of bagasse-based power capacity of which 163 MW of surplus power is sold to the State Electricity Board (SEB’s).

Foray into bagasse-based power generation has helped it to access seamless supply of power for its critical sugar operations on one hand

and generate additional revenues through sale on the other. While profitability in sugar segment is highly volatile and depends on market

cycles, sale of power is assured and adds significantly to the bottom-line. Over past five years, company was able to achieve higher PLF,

thereby improving its power revenue contribution from ~6.5% in FY13 to ~9% in FY16.

Its Operations across Verticals

Units Sugar Cane Crashing Capacity (TCD) Distillery (kl) Installed Power Capacity (MW) Saleable Power

Balrampur 12000 160 49.5 27.2

Babhnan 10000 100 21.7 8

Tulsipur 7000 9.5 -

Haidergarh 5000 23.2 21

Akbarpur 7500 18 11

Manakpur 8000 100 43.6 30

Rauzagaon 8000 30.8 23

Kumbhi 8000 32.7 23

Gularia 8000 31.3 20

Maizapur 3000 6 -

Total 76500 360 266 163

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Government's thrust on ethanol blending program to benefit distillery segment

Government's thrust on ethanol blending program continued to benefit company as its sales volumes of Ethanol in H1 FY18 marginally up

at 39211 kl. Ethanol prices have been hiked Rs 1.85 to Rs 40.85/lt. We expect integrated players like company to benefit immensely due

to improving ethanol dynamics as the central government is mulling to go after ethanol production in a big way.

The sugar industry in India is cyclical in nature, where sugar production is mainly dependent on (1) sugarcane cultivation (2) cane drawl

by sugar industry and (3) Government policies. During years of oversupply (up-cycle), sugar prices tend to decline thereby negatively

impacting sugar mills’ profitability (lower realization) and higher sugarcane arrears for farmers. Simultaneously, lower sugar production

results in higher sugar prices, improved profitability for sugar mills and lower cane arrears.

Sugar Manufacturing Process: The process of manufacturing sugar starts with crushing of sugarcane to extract juice followed by boiling

which results in thickening of juice and sugar begins to crystallize. Crystals are spun in a centrifuge to remove syrup, thereby producing

raw sugar. Raw sugar is then transported to a refinery where it is washed and filtered to remove remaining non-sugar ingredients and

colour. It is then followed by crystallization, drying and resultant packaging of the refined sugar.

Page 5: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

By-products - An integral part of sugar industry

In case of integrated sugar player, a substantial part of earning contribution comes from selling by-products, thereby de-risking the overall

business. Greater the level of integration better is the ability to wither the downturn and de-risk the business from cyclicality. Major by-

products comprise of bagasse, molasses which are utilized to generate power, produce industrial alcohol/ethanol and fertilizers.

Bagasse is the fibrous matter that remains after sugarcane or sorghum stalks are crushed to extract their juice. It is used as a combustible

in furnaces to produce steam, which is used to generate power. Integrated sugar companies have established cogeneration power plants

using bagasse as raw material for both power generation for captive consumption and sell to state grids. Current realizations for mills

stand between Rs 4-5 per unit. Molasses, a by-product, is further processed to produce industrial alcohol/ethyl alcohol to be used in other

industries. In India molasses is used mainly in manufacturing of industrial/ potable alcohol, ethanol rectified spirit and various value added

chemicals. Ethanol is consumed by chemical industry and is also used in blending with petroleum to produce Ethanol Blended Petroleum

(EBP).

H1 FY18 performance

Sugar sales during the quarter stood at 31.07 lakh quintals as compared to 21.38 lakh quintals in Q2FY17. Sales during H1 FY18 was 55.7

lakh quintals as compared to 40.3 lakh quintals during H1 FY17 Sugar realizations for the quarter improved to Rs 37.3 per kg compared

to Rs 36.2 per kg in Q2FY17 Realizations for H1 FY18 improved to Rs 37.0 per kg compared to Rs 35.4 per kg in H1 FY17 Sugar inventory

stood at 12.66 lakh quintals valued at an average rate of Rs 33.73 per kg. As on September, stock of molasses stood at 11.93 lakh qntls.

as compared to 6.93 lakh qntls. For H1 FY18, company posted 34.5% yoy rise in revenues led by 38% increase from Sugar segment.

Other two segments revenue remained muted for the same period. Margin got impacted on the back of lower gross margins and PAT

dipped 7% yoy to Rs 202cr.

Sugar H1 FY18 H1 FY17

Revenue 2181 1572

EBIT 260 223

EBIT (%) 11.9 14.2

Distillery

Revenue 166 185

EBIT 49 84

EBIT (%) 29.5 45.4

CoGen

Revenue 119 80

EBIT 24.7 16.4

EBIT (%) 20.8 20.5

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Page 6: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

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Domestic Sugar Balance

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Page 7: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

De-leveraging balance sheet with low capex commitment

Over the last few years, Company has reduced long term borrowings significantly from Rs 432cr in FY15 to Rs 124cr in FY17 and guides

continuous debt reduction on account of better operational performance and working capital management and will reward shareholders

with higher dividend payouts (declared interim dividend of Rs 3.5/share after a gap of six years for FY17) on strong cash flow generation.

The management is committed towards optimal utilisation of cash; hence, they are also open to consider attractive inorganic opportunities

coming their way to expand capacities. Company guides Rs 90cr each outlay on capital expenditure for the next two years.

Venture into Education Finance Business

In Sep 2017, Board has approved Rs 175 crore investment to finance educational activities over the five years. Balrampur Chini has

incorporated company named Auxilo Finserve Pvt. Ltd. The amount will be spend in tranches and in the first tranche, an investment of Rs

37.5 crore will be made in education sector. The management has guided that no further capital apart from the Rs. 175 cr already

announced will be allocated towards this venture, and they will look to garner similar resources by selling non-core assets like surplus land

and monetise other unrelated business like solar.

Balrampur - key beneficiary of strong sugar cycle

Sugar Prices have remained firm over the last few quarters and we expect similar trend to continue which would help in strong realisations

for Sugar companies. Balrampur Chini is well positioned to capitalize on the positive structural changes witnessed by the industry led by

improving sugar prices and recovery rates coupled with strong relationship with farmers, close proximity to raw materials and favorable

government policies (in the form of soft loans, increasing Ethanol blending from 5% to 10% etc.) We forecast 13% revenue cagr led by

strong growth from all the segments. EBITDA margin for H1 FY18 dipped 550bps to 14.8%. We have assumed 18.8% margin for FY18

and 20.3% for FY19. We believe there will be improvement in sugar realizations and uptick in the distillery business. Net profit during the

same period is likely to remain almost flat at Rs 615cr over FY17-19E. Further, we expect that sustained sugar prices of Rs 37-38 per kg

will result in healthy PAT growth in FY19. We have valued the stock on 8x FY19E EPS and arrive to TP of Rs 198 in 9-12 months.

Risks

Favourable change in weather could increase supply of sugar cane and sugar produced thereby putting pressure on sugar prices.

Tinkering of relevant policy measures by government like import duty, export subsidy and imposing stock limits may affect

profitability and sentiments.

Higher than expected increase in sugarcane cost could hurt profitability.

Company’s venture into education financing (unrelated business diversification) may remain concern.

Page 8: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Revenues to see strong ~13% cagr over FY17-19E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

3001 2874 3641 4389 4661

12.2

-4.2

26.7

20.6

6.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Total Income Growth %

EBITDA trend over FY17-20E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

141 411 870 823 955

-38.4

191.5

111.6

-5.316.0

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

EBITDA EBITDA Growth

Average Realisation per kg : Sugar

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY18

Sugar Cane Crushed (Lac Qntals)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1 FY17 H1 FY18

Page 9: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

De

c-1

2

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

De

c-1

3

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

De

c-1

4

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

De

c-1

5

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

De

c-1

6

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Sugar M30 Mumbai Price per Qntl.

Revenue Mix (%)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

88.4

4.8

6.8

Sugar

Cogen

Distillery

Page 10: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Income Statement

(Rs Cr) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Net Revenue 3001 2874 3641 4389 4661

Other Income 15 47 25 30 33

Total Income 3016 2921 3666 4420 4694

Growth (%) 12.2 -4.2 26.7 20.6 6.2

Operating Expenses 2860 2463 2773 3566 3706

EBITDA 141 458 893 853 988

Growth (%) -38.4 191.5 111.6 -5.3 16.0

EBITDA Margin (%) 4.7 14.3 23.9 18.8 20.5

Depreciation 116 110 105 107 115

EBIT 25 348 788 746 873

Interest expenses 102 67 55 84 94

PBT -77 108 734 661 777

Tax -18 7 142 146 171

RPAT -59 101 592 503 615

Growth (%) -600.0 -330.5 483.9 -12.7 17.6

EPS -2.4 4.1 25.2 21.4 26.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Balance Sheet

As at March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

SOURCE OF FUNDS

Share Capital 24.5 24.5 23.5 23.5 23.5

Reserves 1105 1205 1537 1976 2489

Shareholders' Funds 1129 1229 1561 2000 2513

Long Term Debt 432 502 124 128 154

Net Deferred Taxes 229 159 150 162 172

Long Term Provisions & Others 9 10 4 8 16

Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0

Total Source of Funds 1799 1901 1839 2298 2854

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block (incl CWIP) 1385 1427 1428 1411 1371

Deferred Tax Assets (net) 19 18 1 1 1

Long Term Loans & Advances 301 52 26 56 104

Total Non Current Assets 1705 1497 1455 1468 1476

Current Investments 0 0 0 0 0

Inventories 1670 1865 2314 1840 2047

Trade Receivables 159 199 163 253 349

Short term Loans & Advances 30 1 1 3 12

Cash & Equivalents 82 9 5 158 336

Other Current Assets 278 120 88 105 152

Total Current Assets 2219 2194 2571 2358 2896

Short-Term Borrowings 1183 994 1577 1050 952

Trade Payables 737 423 295 262 372

Other Current Liab & Provisions 183 359 302 214 191

Short-Term Provisions 4 3 2 2 3

Total Current Liabilities 2107 1779 2176 1528 1517

Net Current Assets 112 415 396 830 1378

Total Application of Funds 1799 1901 1839 2298 2854 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Page 11: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Cash Flow Statement

(Rs Cr) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

Reported PBT -62 108 734 662 779

Non-operating & EO items -15 -47 -25 -30 -33

Interest Expenses 102 67 55 84 94

Depreciation 116 110 105 107 115

Working Capital Change 1 -376 16 -282 -370

Tax Paid 18 -7 -142 -146 -171

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 160 -145 743 396 413

Capex -22 -146 -106 -90 -75

Free Cash Flow 138 -292 637 306 338

Investments -37 250 43 -30 -48

Non-operating income 15 47 25 30 33

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -44 150 -38 -89 -90

Debt Issuance / (Repaid) -95 1 -393 20 44

Interest Expenses -102 -67 -55 -84 -94

FCFE -60 -357 188 241 288

Share Capital Issuance 0 0 -1 0 0

Dividend -1 -1 -70 -77 -94

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -198 -66 -519 -142 -145

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) -83 -62 185 165 179 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Key Ratios

(Rs Cr) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

EBITDA Margin 4.7 14.3 23.9 18.8 20.5

EBIT Margin 1.3 12.1 21.7 17.0 18.7

APAT Margin -1.5 3.5 16.3 11.8 13.0

RoE -4.9 8.6 42.5 28.3 27.3

RoCE 2.2 18.3 42.9 32.5 30.6

Solvency Ratio

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 10.9 3.6 2.0 1.2 0.8

D/E 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.4

Net D/E 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.3

PER SHARE DATA

EPS -2.4 4.1 25.2 21.4 26.2

CEPS 2.4 8.6 29.7 26.0 31.1

BV 46 50 66 85 107

Dividend 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.7 3.2

Turnover Ratios (days)

Debtor days 19 25 16 21 27

Inventory days 229 224 209 153 160

Creditors days 118 66 38 44 49

VALUATION

P/E -68.4 39.1 6.4 7.6 6.2

P/BV 3.5 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.5

EV/EBITDA 37.5 12.9 6.1 6.4 5.5

EV / Revenues 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1

Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.7 2.0

Dividend Payout 0.0 0.0 9.9 12.6 12.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research

Page 12: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Rating Chart

R E T U R N

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

RISK

Ratings Explanation:

RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE

BLUE LOW RISK - LOW RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 20% OR

MORE

YELLOW MEDIUM RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 35% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 35% OR

MORE

RED HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 50% OR MORE

IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 30%

& IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%

IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE

FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 50%

OR MORE

Page 13: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

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Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

Price Chart

20

40

60

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100

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Rating Definition:

Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.

Page 14: Balrampur Chini Nov 27, 2017 - HDFC securities PCG - Pick...Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA Nov 27, 2017 Recommendation Buy at CMP and add on Dips Add on dips to Rs. 149-163 Target

13 | P a g e

Balrampur Chini INVESTMENT IDEA

Nov 27, 2017

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