BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
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Transcript of BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
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BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE
How Big is the Threat?How Big is the Threat?
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Bush’s promise• 2000- Campaign pledge to deploy an effective missile
shield• Presidential Promise
• December 17th, 2002- Promised to have a Ballistic Missile Defense Program running by 2004-2005– Presidential Address
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Is the threat to the United States strong enough to merit rushing an incomplete
Ballistic Missile Defense Program?• Important to understand the threat in order to plan an appropriate
defense• 2 opposing camps
– Proponents of ballistic missile defense• Conservatives• Believe that an imminent threat exists that makes it necessary to speed up our ballistic
missile defense program– Opponents of ballistic missile defense
• Liberals• Believe that the threat that the United States presently faces from the nuclear states is
not great enough to merit rushing a defense program that has not been fully developed
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Main points of Disagreement
• Testing• Costs• Countermeasures
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Is testing necessary?• Proponents
– Not necessary to test– Testing will reveal
the secrets of our defense capabilities
– Current defensive capabilities are sufficient for primitive nuclear missile attacks
– Test
• Opponents– Only 8 of the 19 tests have been conducted, and
with mixed results• Tests start out simple and get more complex• Only simple tests have been conducted; still in R
& D phase– Tests that have been conducted have not been
accurate because the testing conditions were not realistic
• Simplified tests• Involved “surrogate components” (i.e. slower
defensive rockets than the ones that would be used in a real situation; GPS satellites)
– The government has been misrepresenting the testing success they have had
• NY Times April 18th, May 18th• Wall Street Journal January 14th 2000
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Is the present threat great enough to justify the costs of
BMD?• Proponents
– Defense needs to be number one priority of the United States government
– The nuclear states, specifically North Korea, Russia, China, Iran and Iraq, have made huge technological gains
• Most countries that have the technology can produce nuclear arms within a matter of months
• Russia and China have long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States
• North Korea, Iran and Iraq are within 10 years of having missiles that can reach United States
• Opponents– The government is devoting too
much money to ballistic missile defense
• 10 billion dollars a year too much to spend
• Spending billions of dollars to defend against a threat that does not exist
– North Korea not as much of a military threat as a proliferation threat
• Country low on money- can’t even afford the fuel to keep their fighter pilots in the air
• It is profitable to sell nuclear secrets and materials
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The question of countermeasures
• Proponents– The nations that we face as
threats do not possess the ability to produce countermeasures complex enough to deceive our defenses
• Must keep in mind who it is we are defending against (North Korea’s economic resources; sophistication of Soviet Union)
• We have prepared for countermeasures which are far more complex than anything the offense could use
• Opponents– Too many unknowns
• BMD program cannot be pushed forward before we understand how to deal with the countermeasures of the offense
• We do not yet know what countermeasures are within the technological capabilities of the threatening nuclear states, nor how effective our program would be in defending against them
– Countermeasures
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Question: So, what does the rest of America think?Answer: It depends on who you talk to
• Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance (MDAA)– Conducted polls of
registered voters in AZ, MS, NH, SC and PA over the past year (most recent 05/26/04)
– 78% support the plan to deploy a partial missile defense system in 2004
Insert graph here
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The Other Side of Public Opinion:
• Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers– April 2000 survey of 1000
adults was conducted by the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, the Council for a Livable World Education Fund, and the Fourth Freedom Forum
– 59% support waiting to decide on deployment of national missile defenses until after the 19 tests are complete
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How Can This Be?• Contradicting polls results have been published on
a continual basis over the past 10 years• Both sides use techniques to skew the results:
– Preliminary questions to elevate concerns• Remind people about continuing Russian/ Chinese threat
– Introductory clause• “knowing that…” (US cannot currently stop one incoming
missile…/ many scientists conclude that it is unlikely such a system will work…)
– Compare costs to another cause (popular/unpopular)• Health care and education/ peacekeeping in Bosnia
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What Does This Mean?
• Poll results do not always give an accurate representation of public opinion
• The ease at which the opinions of respondents can be skewed could indicate a general lack of knowledge of Ballistic Missile Defense, and lack of exposure to all sides of the issue
• Political propaganda, world events, and the media are also reasons for constant fluctuations in results
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Where Do You Stand?
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Work Cited• Special Thanks To:
– Dean Wilkening– Michael May– Carlos Seligo
– Dena Slothower• Work Cited
– Butler, Richard. Fatal Choice. Cambridge: Westview Press, 2001.– Carter, Ashton B. ed. and N. Schwartz, ed. Ballistic Missile Defense. Washington D.C.:
The Brookings Institution, 1984.– www.clw.org/coalition/pollmd2.htm
– http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/ohanlon/20040412.htm– http://www.state.gov/t/ac/rls/fs/2001/4892.htm
– http://www.ucsusa.org/– http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/12/20021217.html
– http://www.clw.org/pub/clw/coalition/polling.htm#bmd