Balance of Payments Outputs of the Balance of Payments Division CSO 23/2/2012 Stephen Treacy &...

Balance of PaymentsOutputs of the Balance of Payments Division

CSO 23/2/2012

Stephen Treacy & Stephen McDonagh

Balance of Payments Analysis & Dissemination

What this presentation will cover

Balance of Payments (BoP) statistics – ST

International Investment Position (IIP) and related statistics – ST

Resident holdings of foreign Portfolio Securities – ST

International Trade in Services – SMcD

Foreign Direct Investment – SMcD

Central Statistics Office, Ireland 2

BoP division outputs and releases

Much of our data is produced for International Organisations; Eurostat, ECB, OECD, IMF, World Bank, UN

Monthly estimates t+6 weeks, Quarterly data t+90 days, semi-annual t+6 months, Annual data t+9 months

Main use of this data is to compile EU/Euro-Area aggregates and is generally at EU/extra-EU, Euro area/extra Euro-Area level

National publications geared towards what users have requested

National Releases contain IFSC/non-IFSC splits to help users understand what’s happening in the core economy

Revisions annually going back two years at a minimum, in conjunction with National Accounts (Financial, non-Financial, Sector Accounts)

Revisions include corrections, annual data and new data sources


Quarterly Current Account Balance 2001q1 - 2011q3


2001 Q1

2001 Q2

2001 Q3

2001 Q4

2002 Q1

2002 Q2

2002 Q3

2002 Q4

2003 Q1

2003 Q2

2003 Q3

2003 Q4

2004 Q1

2004 Q2

2004 Q3

2004 Q4

2005 Q1

2005 Q2

2005 Q3

2005 Q4

2006 Q1

2006 Q2

2006 Q3

2006 Q4

2007 Q1

2007 Q2

2007 Q3

2007 Q4

2008 Q1

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2010 Q1

2010 Q2

2010 Q3

2010 Q4

2011 Q1

2011 Q2

2011 Q3

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

€ m

Current Account comparison q3 2011: Ireland, New Zealand and the Netherlands


Goo

ds Im

ports

Goo

ds E

xpor

ts

Servic

e Im

ports

Servic

e Exp

orts

Trave

l Impo

rts

Trave

l Exp

orts

Inco

me

Recei

pts

Inco

me

Paym

ents

Curre

nt A

/C B

alan

ce-10

10

30

50

70

90

Ireland 4.6mNew Zealand 4.4mNetherlands 16.6m

€b

n

Financial Account Flows 2004q1 – 2011 q3


04q1

2004

q3

2005

q1

2005

q3

2006

q1

2006

q3

2007

q1

2007

q3

2008

q1

2008

q3

2009

q1

2009

q3

2010

q1

2010

q3

2011

q1

2011

q3-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Assets Liabilities Net E&O

€b

ns

Breakdown of Annual Financial Account Flows

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Financial account asset flows

Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment Reserve Assets

€b

n

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250Financial account liability flows

€b

n

International Investment Position comparisonend September 2011 data

9

€ Millions

New Zealand Portugal Spain Ireland Netherlands

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Assets Liabilities Net

€b

n

Net International Investment Position2000 – quarter 3 2011


2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

q3-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Net IFSC Non-IFSC

€bn

Quarterly External Debt Statistics


2003

q4

2004

q2

2004

q4

2005

q2

2005

q4

2006

q2

2006

q4

2007

q2

2007

q4

2008

q2

2008

q4

2009

q2

2009

q4

2010

q2

2010

q4

2011

q2

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Net IIP Gross Ext Debt Net Ext Debt

€bn

IFSC/Non-IFSC External Debt q3-2011


Genera

l Gove

rnm

ent

Moneta

ry A

uthorit

y

Moneta

ry F

inancia

l Inst

itutio

ns

Oth

er Sect

ors

Direct

Inve

stm

ent

Gro

ss E

xtern

al Debt

Net Ext

ernal D

ebt-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

IFSCnon-IFSC€

bn

Co-ordinated Portfolio Investment Survey


All Countries United States

United Kingdom

France Germany Italy0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Assets of Ireland at end 2010

€bn

CPIS comparison between Irish and World data

All Coun-tries

United Kingdom

Germany United States

France Luxembourg0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Derived Liabilities at end 2010

€bn

All Countries United Kingdom

United States

Germany Netherlands Italy0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Liabilities at end 2010 as in IIP release

€bn

Annual International Trade in Services

Growth of Services


2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

8

28

Exports of Goods and Services

GoodsServicesComputer services

€bn

Growth of Services

Alternative


2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

9

29

Imports of Goods and Services

GoodsServicesRoyalties

€bn

Growth of Services (2)

Top 10 EU countries’ trade in services (2010)


UK

German

y

France

Spain

Netherlands

Italy

Irelan

d

Belgium

Luxe

mbourg

Sweden

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Exports

Imports

€bn


Main Service Categories

Computer services

38%

Insurance11%Financial services

8%

Merchant-ing 10%

Opera-tional

Leasing8%

Other25%

Exports 2010

Royalties/ Licences

35%

Other trade re-

lated services

13%

Insurance8%

Financial services

6%

Advertis-ing and market

research7%

Tourism and travel

7%

R&D5%

Other19%

Imports 2010

Country comparison - computer/Insurance service exports (2010)


Computer services Insurance services0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Exports

IrelandGermanyUnited KingdomUnited States

€bn

Country comparison Insurance/Royalties service imports (2010)


Insurance services0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Royalties/Licences0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Imports

IrelandNetherlandsGermanyUnited KingdomItalyUnited States

€bn €bn

Main partner countries (2010)


Other

US

Asia

Other Europe

Germany

UK

France

Netherlands

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Service Exports

Service Im-ports

Europe

Annual Foreign Direct Investment

Definition

Direct Investment is a category of international investment in which a resident entity in one economy (the direct investor) acquires a lasting interest in another economy (the direct investment enterprise).

Lasting interest is defined as 10% or greater holding of equity (ordinary shares/voting power)

10% or more -> Direct Investment

<10% -> Portfolio investment


Directional principle


Country: US

Company A

Country: Ireland

Company B

Country: France

Company C

€100m equity

€30m loan

Loan €25m

Direct Investment in Ireland:€100m (€100m)€70m (€100m - €30m)€45m (€100m - €30m - €25m)

Direct Investment Positions


2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

€bn€bn

Direct Investment in Ireland (DII)

Direct Investment Abroad (DIA)

Composition of FDI (Positions)


€bn

DIA DII DIA DII DIA DII DIA DII-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Equity Capital & Reinvested Earnings

Other Capital

2008 2009 20102007

Destination/Source of Investment (2010)

Central Statistics Office, Ireland 28DIA DII0

50

100

150

200

250

Other

Offshore centres

US

Netherlands

UK

Luxembourg

€bn

DIA by resident enterprise’s NACE sector (2010)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Manufacturing

Trade and repairs

Financial inter-mediation

Computer activities

Other business ac-tivities

Other

€bn

DII by resident enterprise’s NACE sector (2010)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Chemicals

Trade and repairs

Financial intermediation

Insurance companies and pension funds

Computer activities

Other business activities

Other

€bn

What is an Irish company?

Irish owned?

Head-quartered in Ireland?

Listed on the Irish Stock Exchange?

Combination of the above?

Other?


Thank you for

your attention

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