Bagian I Pendahuluan - Weebly
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Bagian I Pendahuluan
Transcript of Bagian I Pendahuluan - Weebly
Bagian IPendahuluan
Economic planning
• Economic planning A component of public policy that controls economic activity. It can involve the use of direct controls, such as rationing and price, rent, and wage limits, or indirect controls, such as monetary and fiscal policy. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
• Economic planning the process by which key economic decisions are made or influenced by central governments. It contrasts with the laissez-faire approach that, in its purest form, eschews any attempt to guide the economy, relying instead on market forces to determine the speed, direction, and nature of economic evolution. (https://www.britannica.com/topic/economic-planning)
Economic development
• Economic development An economic transformation of a country or a region that leads to the improvement of the well-being and economic capabilities of its residents. (Oxford
Dictionary of Economics)
• Economic development. Progress in an economy, or the qualitative measure of this. Economic development usually refers to the adoption of new technologies, transition from agriculture-based to industry-based economy, and general improvement in living standards. (http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/economic-development.html)
Development economics
• Development economics. The branch of economics devoted to the understanding of the process of economic development. Development economists are particularly concerned with policies to raise the standard of living in less developed countries. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
• Development economics. A branch of economics that focuses on improving the economies of developing countries. Development economics considers how to promote economic growth by improving factors such as health, education, working conditions, domestic and international policies, and market conditions in developing countries. It examines both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors relating to the structure of a developing economy and how that economy can create effective domestic and international growth. (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/development-
economics.asp#ixzz4p5EFrO6p)
Economic growth is far below the government's target
2015 2016* 2017** 2018** 2019**Average2015-19
RPJM target 5.5 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.0 6.9
Actual & projection 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.9 5.2
Difference -0.6 -1.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -1.7
* Estimate
** Projection
Bagian IIEkonomi Dunia Membaik, Indonesia?
IMF raises global growth forecasts, gaining momentum—for now
* Projection.
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2014 and October 2016; and World Economic Outlook Update, July 2017.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*
World GDP growth 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.6
Advanced economies 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9
- United States 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.1 2.1
- Euro area -0.4 0.9 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.7
- Japan 1.6 0.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.6
Developing economies 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.8
- China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4
- India 6.9 7.3 7.9 6.8 7.2 7.7
- Asean-5 5.1 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2
Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3
World trade volume growth 3.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 4.0 3.9
IMF: “…“ the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum
coming into the new year in a number of important economies.”
Turning point?
Source: https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2017/03/14/maintaining-the-positive-momentum-of-the-global-economy/
• Global manufacturing has been strengthening since last summer, along with a pickup in shipment and trade.
• Emerging and developing economies, led by China and India, continue to contribute more than three-quarters of total global GDP growth in 2017. Adding to this is a projected normalization of conditions in Brazil and Russia, which have been facing deep recessions.
• stronger-than-expected economic activity in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Pola pertumbuhan Indonesia vs dunia
Sources: BPS_Statistics Indonesia and IMF
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Indonesia World
Bagian IIIKinerja Perekonomian Indonesia Melemah: Perlu Energi Tambahan dan Darah Segar
The rise and decline of Indonesian economy: GDP growth 1961-2017 (%)
6.1
-2.3
1.1
12.0
9.8
6.2 6.0
9.2
1.1
8.5
3.5
9.18.4
-13.1
5.76.3
4.6
6.4
5.0
4.9
5.0 5.0
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*
The fall ofOld Order
Pertaminacrisis
Oil price collapse
Economic crisis and the end of New Order/Soeharto era
Global financial
crisis
Trendline-polynomial
* First semester.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
The declining trend of economic growth from 6% to 5%
* First semester.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
6.4
6.26.1
5.6
5.04.9
5.0 5.0
GDPgrowth,year-on-year
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
4.5
4.14.3
5.6
5.9
6.3
5.8
6.8
6.4 6.5 6.5 6.56.3 6.4
6.2 6.1 6.0
5.85.6
5.7
5.15.0
4.95.0
4.7 4.7 4.7
5.04.9
5.25.0 4.9 5.0 5.0
Q1
-09
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-10
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-11
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-12
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-13
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-14
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-16
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
-17
Q2
The second quarter of 2016 was a turning point? Not yet!!!
Economic growth by island: Kalimantan and Sumetera suffered the most
2015 : 3.5%2016 : 4.3%2017*: 4.1%Share : 21.7%
2015 : 1.3%2016 : 2.%2017*: 4.4%Share: 8.2% 2015 : 8.2%
2016 : 7.4%2017*: 6.5%Share : 6.1%
2015 : 5.5%2016 : 5.6%2017*: 5.4%Share : 58.7%
2015 : 10.3%2016 : 5.9%2017*: 3.1%Share : 3.1%
2015 : 6.6%2016 : 7.5%2017*: 4.5% Share: 2.3%
* First semester.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Analogi perekonomian dengan anatomitubuh manusia
Menjadi juara: asupan harus bermutu, kerja keras, dan disiplin
Pengalaman pribadi: ikut lomba marathon tanpa latihan dan persiapan memadai
Mekani Marathon, Lombok Barat, April 2017
Credit penetration in Indonesia is still very low
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
46.7
53.9
59.1
59.7
76.7
108.7
121.1
128.3
144.8
173.4
179.0
194.4
Indonesia
Cambodia
Philippines
Bangladesh
India
Brazil
Singapore
Vietnam
Malaysia
Thailand
South Africa
China
Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP), 2015
39.1
41.8
43.9
52.6
63.1
67.9
111.9
125.2
129.7
149.2
151.3
153.3
Indonesia
Philippines
Bangladesh
India
Cambodia
Brazil
Vietnam
Malaysia
Singapore
South Africa
Thailand
China
Domestic credit to private sector(% of GDP), 2015
Pada tahun 1990 di Indonesia mencapai 51,8%.
* 2003Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Stock market capitalization
[]*
35.1
16.3
31.1
48.5
32
24
124.7
159.5
154.2
27
28
41
72
74
82
88
129
219
234
Vietnam
Brazil
Indonesia
India
China
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
South Africa
Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
2015 2000
Source: Asian Development Bank, Asia Bond Monitor, November 2016.
Size of local currency bonds market: Indonesia is still lagging behind in the long-term financing
208
56 52 45 57 43 45 4628 23 15
16
80
4533 20
33 25 206 1 2
0
50
100
150
200
250
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Thailand
HongKong
EmergingEastAsia
China
Philippines
Vietnam
Indonesia
Corporatebonds Governmentbonds
(% of GDP, September 2016)
Selected top-30 merchandise exporters
2015 (2010)
Growth (%)
Manufactures exports as % of
Rank Country 2015 2010 2015 2010 2010-15 total exports, 2015
1 (1) China 2,275 1,578 13.8 10.4 44.2 94.3
2 (2) United States 1,505 1,278 9.1 8.4 17.8 64.0
3 (3) Germany 1,329 1,269 8.1 8.3 4.7 84.1
4 (4) Japan 625 770 3.8 5.1 -18.8 88.0
6 (7) Korea, Republic of 527 466 3.2 3.1 13.1 89.6
7 (11) Hong Kong, China 511 401 3.1 2.6 27.4 65.7
14 (14) Singapore 351 352 2.1 2.3 -0.3 77.0
17 (16) Chinese Taipei 285 275 1.7 1.8 3.6 99.0
19 (20) India 267 216 1.6 1.4 23.6 70.6
20 (19) United Arab Emirates 265 235 1.6 1.5 12.8 7.5
21 (25) Thailand 214 195 1.3 1.3 9.7 77.8
22 (17) Saudi Arabia 202 254 1.2 1.7 -20.5 18.4
23 (23) Malaysia 200 199 1.2 1.3 0.5 66.9
25 (22) Brazil 191 202 1.2 1.3 -5.4 38.1
27 (39) Viet Nam 162 72 1.0 0.5 125.0 76.3
30 (27) Indonesia 150 158 0.9 1.0 -5.1 40.9
Value (Billion US$) Share (%)
Sources: World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2011 and 2016; and World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Selected top-30 merchandise importers
2015 (2010)
Growth (%)
Manufactures imports as % of
Rank Country 2015 2010 2015 2010 2010-15 total imports, 2015
1 (1) United States 2,308 1,968 13.8 12.8 17.3 78.9
2 (2) China 1,682 1,395 10.1 9.1 20.6 61.7
3 (3) Germany 1,050 1,067 6.3 6.9 -1.6 72.6
4 (4) Japan 648 693 3.9 4.5 -6.5 59.9
7 (9) Hong Kong, China 559 442 3.3 2.9 26.5 91.2
9 (10) Korea, Republic of 436 425 2.6 2.8 2.6 62.1
13 (13) India 392 323 2.3 2.1 21.4 52.7
16 (15) Singapore 297 311 1.8 2.0 -4.5 70.1
18 (17) Chinese Taipei 238 251 1.4 1.6 -5.2 n.a.
19 (25) United Arab Emirates 230 170 1.4 1.1 35.3 74.8
22 (22) Thailand 203 182 1.2 1.2 11.5 72.2
25 (20) Brazil 179 191 1.1 1.2 -6.3 75.9
26 (26) Malaysia 176 165 1.1 1.1 6.7 70.9
27 (31) Saudi Arabia 172 107 1.0 0.7 60.7 80.7
28 (34) Viet Nam 166 85 1.0 0.6 95.3 76.6
30 (29) Indonesia 143 132 0.9 0.9 8.3 58.9
Value (Billion US$) Share (%)
Sources: World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2011 and 2016; and World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Indonesia has actively used restrictive trade and investment measures
R e f o r m i n g a m i d u n c e r t a i n t y I n d o n e s i a E c o n o m i c Q u a r t e r l y
December 2015 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA35
and materials. The level of flexibility, however, differs and the chapters on intellectual property, state-owned enterprises and government procurement allow for more limited exceptions. Those are some of the areas in which Indonesia may need to implement more sweeping changes in case of joining. However, to the extent that the decision to join the TPP is predicated on the desire to integrate with a large trading bloc, the utilization of such implementation flexibility may well be only temporary.
Finally, the TPP may restrict in some ways the room for future economic policy-making
In addition to its impact on the regulatory status quo, the TPP text is likely to limit in some ways the freedom of future economic policy-making. The agreement affords countries little flexibility to make laws and regulations more restrictive towards other member countries. As a result, the TPP provides the benefit of more certainty in the direction of future economic policies. This limitation could be particularly important for Indonesia, which is the most active user of restrictive trade and investment measures among South East Asian comparators (Figure 28). On the other hand, the cost of this TPP-imposed limitation would be the loss of some economic policy space.
Figure 28: Indonesia has actively used restrictive trade and investment measures (number of restrictive measures on trade and investments passed and implemented June 2009-to date, select South East Asian countries)
Source: Global Trade Alert (accessed 13/11/2015); World Bank staff calculations
0
50
100
150
200
250 Passed Implemented
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Reforming Amid Uncertainty, December 2015, p. 35.
Strategi menyerang lebih ampuh, musim 2016-17
Bagian IVTransformasi Struktural: Dominasi Sektor Jasa
Terlalu Cepat?
GDP growth by sector
* First semester; excluding taxes minus subsidies.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-17 Q2-17Share2017*
Agriculture, forestry & fishery 4.59 4.20 4.24 3.77 3.25 7.12 3.33 13.76
Mining and Quarrying 3.02 2.53 0.43 -3.42 1.06 -0.64 2.24 7.65
Manufacturing industry 5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.29 4.24 3.54 20.37
Electricity and gas 10.06 5.23 5.90 0.90 5.39 1.60 -2.53 1.19
Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling 3.34 3.32 5.24 7.07 3.60 4.39 3.67 0.07
Construction 6.56 6.11 6.97 6.36 5.22 5.95 6.96 10.17
Wholesale & retail trade, cars & motorcycles reparations 5.40 4.81 5.18 2.59 3.93 4.96 3.78 13.13
Transportation and warehousing 7.11 6.97 7.36 6.68 7.74 8.03 8.37 5.24
Accommodation, food and beverages 6.64 6.80 5.77 4.31 4.94 4.68 5.07 2.87
Information and communication 12.28 10.39 10.12 9.69 8.87 9.13 10.88 3.81
Finance and insurance 9.54 8.76 4.68 8.59 8.90 5.99 5.94 4.25
Real estate 7.41 6.54 5.00 4.11 4.30 3.67 3.86 2.82
Business services 7.44 7.91 9.81 7.69 7.36 6.80 8.14 1.75
Public adm., defense, and compulsory social security 2.13 2.56 2.38 4.63 3.19 0.22 -0.03 3.59
Education 8.22 7.44 5.47 7.33 3.84 4.09 0.90 3.18
Health and social activities 7.97 7.96 7.96 6.68 5.00 7.10 6.40 1.07
Other services 5.76 6.40 8.93 8.08 7.80 8.01 8.63 1.76
Gross domestic product 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.02 5.01 5.01 100.00
The service sectors have dominated the Indonesian economy: too early?
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank
55
46
41
45
54
59
Economic structure of Indonesia: tradables vs. non-tradables
(% of GDP)
Tradables Non-tradables
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Economic structure of China: good-producing sectors and service sertors (% of GDP)
Good-producing sectors
Services
Indonesia’s services trade restrictiveness index*
* The indices take values between zero and one, with one being the most restrictive.
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 32.
Ten out of twelve service sectors have excess demand, the other two have excess supply
Excess supply, percent, LHS; 100 percent RHS
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 31.
Note: Until 2009 based on GDP 2000 Serie, since 2010 based on GDP 2010 serie.* First quarter.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Manufacturing matters: the share of manufacturing industry continued to decline
12.0
29.0
27.8
22.0 20.51
20.47
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
*
ManufacturingvalueaddedaspercentofGDP
Per
cen
t o
f G
DP
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
GDP and manufacturing growth
5.0
4.3
7.5
7.0
5.5
5.6
5.1
4.4
4
5
6
7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
percent
GDP Total
Manufacturing, Total
Non-oil & gas manufacturing
Jumlah perusahaan manufaktur besar-menengah
Trade deficit: manufacturing products
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
-130
-110
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Imports Exports Surplus(deficit)
US$ b
illions
Trade deficit: food products
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Trade account of food (SITC 0)2000-2016, US$ billions
Exports Imports Surplus (deficit)
Skyrocketing fuel consumption, the production slump, making imports increasingly undermined the economy
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Oil production: A mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passingthrough surface separating facilities.
Oil consumption: inland demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of fuel ethanol and biodiesel is also included.
1,398(Exports)
-789(Imports)
Bagian VDomestic Demand under Pressure, but the
Purchasing Power does not Decrease
Daya beli masyarakat tidak turun!!!
• Tidak ada kejadian luar biasa yang menyebabkan daya belimasyarakat secara nasional mengalami penurunan.
• Penurunan omzet atau laba beberapa outlet pasar modern tidakbisa dijadikan acuan terjadinya penurunan daya beli masyarakat.
• Begitu banyak ragam barang dan jasa serta berbagai kelompokpendapatan. Sangat boleh jadi penjualan beberapa produk turundan daya beli kelompok pendapatan tertentu juga turun. Tetapi, secara keseluruhan naik, yang tercermin dari peningkatan riilkonsumsi masyarakat sekitar 5%, semetara secara nominal naik sekitar 8%.
• Ada indikasi penurunan konsumsi (bukan daya beli) kelompokmenengah-atas untuk berjaga-jaga dengan menaikkan tabungan(switching to saving).
• Ada pula yang belanjanya beralih ke online system/e-commerce.
GDP growth by expenditure (percent)
* First quarter.** Withiout changes in investory (1.73)%.Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*Share 2016
Private consumption 4.26 5.05 5.49 5.43 5.15 4.96 5.01 4.93 56.50
Non-profit private consumption -3.70 5.54 6.68 8.18 12.19 -0.62 6.62 8.02 1.16
General government consumption 3.99 5.52 4.53 6.75 1.16 5.32 -0.15 2.71 9.45
Gross domestic fixed capital formation 6.69 8.86 9.13 5.01 4.45 5.01 4.48 4.81 32.57
Exports of goods and services 15.28 14.77 1.61 4.17 1.07 -2.12 -1.74 8.04 19.08
Less imports of goods and services 16.58 15.03 8.00 1.86 2.12 -6.41 -2.27 5.02 18.31
Gross domestic product 6.38 6.17 6.03 5.56 5.01 4.88 5.02 5.01 100.00**
Konsumsi Rumah Tangga
Composition of GDP by expenditure, 2016 (%)
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
58
32
91
Privateconsump on
Grossfixedcapitalforma on
Governmentconsump on
Exportsminusimports
Top-20Mid-40Bottom-40
Distribution of spending by “income” group
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
17
36
46
Bottom-40
Mid-40
Top-20
March 2017, percent
Bottom-40 is under considerable pressure
• The majority are farmers, farm workers, construction workers and other informal workers, and factory workers.
• Their purchasing power generally have decreased for quite long enough.
• Some can still survive by working longer hours, side jobs, or family members enter the labor market, so that family income does not go down significantly.
• The delay of disbursement of social assistance funds.
• The decline of purchasing power of this group on the national purchasing power is relatively small because their consumption share to the total private consumption is relatively low.
Began to spread to the lower-middle
• Elimination of of electricity subsidies for 900 VA for approximately 19 million customers. The average spending on electricity of this group went up from Rp80,000 to Rp 170,000.
• Salaries of civil servants, soldiers, and police officers have not risen in the last two years. Also due to budget cuts for current expenditures.
Farmers' purchasing power under pressure
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
102.87
100.02
102.95
102.02
101.31
101.49
99.95
100.15
99
100
100
101
101
102
102
103
103
104
Farmers' terms of trade
NTP: perbandingan indeks harga yang diterima petaniterhadap indeks harga yang dibayar petani, yang mencerminkan tingkat kemampuan/daya beli petani di pedesaan. NTP juga mencerminkan daya tukar (terms of trade) produk pertanian terhadap barang dan jasa yang dikonsumsi maupun untuk biaya produksi petani.
Farmers' purchasing power under pressure
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
98.1
102.0
96.7
104.1
95.4
96.7
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Sep'1
4
10
11
12
Jan'1
5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
11
12
Jan'1
6 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
11
12
Jan'1
7 2 3 4 5
Farmers' terms of trade - food
Informal workers in rural sufferred more than in urban
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
36,500
37,000
37,500
38,000
38,500
39,000
39,500
40,000
Jan'1
4 4 7
10
Jan'1
5 4 7
10
Jan'1
6 4 7
10
Jan'1
7 4
Farm workers
64,000
65,000
66,000
67,000
68,000
69,000
Jan'1
4 4 7
10
Jan'1
5 4 7
10
Jan'1
6 4 7
10
Jan'1
7 4
Construction workers
Nov’15-Nov’14 Nov’16-Nov’15 Apr’17-Apr’16 Apr’17-Nov’14
Farm workers -1.67 -1.80 -0.03 -2.38
Construction workers 0.15 -0.91 -1.43 -1.80
Daily real wages, rupiah
Change of daily real wages, year-on-year, percent
Source: DR. Ari Kuncoro based on BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Wages: barely able to keep up with inflation
Working hours
Source: DR. Ari Kuncoro based on BPS-Statistics Indonesia
An increase at the household level?
Source: DR. Ari Kuncoro based on BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Grappling with the issue of overwork: 26.3% of workers in Indonesia worked 49+ hours per week
Source: Nikkei Asian Review http://s.nikkei.com/2hvdkNO
Takes longer to find a job
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Dari demographic bonus menjadidemographic burden: youth unemployment
Source: World Bank.
3.9
6.3
6.7
10.4
10.5
21.8
29.5
30.1
34.6
42.0
48.9
Thailand
Vietnam
Malaysia
India
China
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Iraq
Egypt
Libya
Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) (modeled ILO estimate, 2014)
Motorcycle sales and growth dropped sharply since 2015
* January-March.
Sources: Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor Indonesia (AISI) and ASEAN Automotive Federation.
4,4714,714
6,2815,882
7,399
8,044
7,142
7,771 7,909
6,708
6,215
1,5791,402
-6.4
-11.2
8.8
1.8
-15.2
-7.3
-11.2
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016* 2017*
Th
ou
san
ds
Motorcycle sales and growth
Sales (thousand unit)-LHS Growth (yoy, %)-RHS
Car sales increased by 6.0 percent in Q1-2017
* First quarter.
Source: Gaikindo
301 300 318355
483534
319
433
604
484
765
894
1,116
1,2301,208
1,0131,062
267 283-16.12
4.8 6.0
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Th
ou
san
ds
Sales-LHS Growth (%)-RHS
Prioritas perencanaan
Perencanaan sejatinya mengutamakan pemberdayaanBottom-40.
Perencanaan Fiskal
2014Actual
audited
2015
Budget
2015RevisedBudget
2015Actual
audited
2016
Budget
2016 Revisedbudget
2016Actual
(Prelim)
2017
Budget
2017Revised Budget
A. Revenues 1,550 1,794 1,762 1,508 1,822 1,786 1,552 1,750 1,736
I. Tax revenues 1,147 1,380 1,489 1,240 1,547 1,539 1,284 1,499 1,428
a. Income tax 546 644 679 602 757 856 667 788 784
i. Oil and gas 87 89 50 50 41 36 36 36 42
ii. Non-oil & gas 459 556 630 553 716 819 631 752 742
b. VAT/LGST 409 525 576 424 572 474 411 494 476
c. Excises 118 127 146 145 146 148 143 157
d. Others 73 84 88 70 71 61 62 60
II. Non-tax revenues 399 410 269 256 274 245 262 250 260
B. Expenditures 1,777 2,040 1,984 1,806 2,096 2,083 1,860 2,080 2,133
C. Overall balance -227 -246 -223 -298 -274 -297 -308 -330 -397
as percent of GDP -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.41 -2.92
Sources: Ministry of Finance and World Bank.
Summary of State Budget 2014-2017 (IDR trillion unless otherwise indicated)
Tax revenue target is still too ambitious, tax amnesty is not enough to cover the shortfall
Pertumbuhan penerimaan pajak
* Realisasi sementara** APBN 2017 dibandingkan dengan realisasi 2016.
Tahun persen2012 12.22013 9.92014 6.52015 8.12016* 3.52017** 16.7
• Pertumbuhan 2015 semukarena praktek “ijon” danpenundaan pembayaranrestitusi. Tak ada lagi akrobatpajak pada 2016.
• Pertumbuhan 2016 tanpapenerimaan tebusan -4,8% .
• Pertumbuhan 2017 dibandingkan realisasi 2016 tanpa tebusan adalah 26,9%.
• Dengan skenario pertumbuhan 15% pada 2017, penerimaanpajak 2017 Rp 1.358, lebih rendah sebesar Rp 141 triliundibandingkan dengan APBN 2017.
• Hingga Mei 2017, penerimaan pajak Rp 463,5T atau 30,9% daritarget Rp 1.499T. Diekstrapolasi ke tahunan, penerimaan pajak2017 adalah Rp 1.112T. “Shortfall” = Rp 387T. Ini sudah termasukuang tebusan dan puncak penerimaan pajak Maret.
Berbagai pemberitaan belakangan ini
Pemerintah Belum Bayar Dana Subsidi Elpiji ke Pertamina Rp 16 Triliun“Total tagihan Pertamina
ke Pemerintah Rp 35 triliun.“http://katadata.co.id/berita/2017/06/09/subsidi-elpiji-jadi-utang-terbesar-pemerintah-ke-pertamina
Penerimaan pajakhingga Mei baru 31% dari targethttp://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/penerimaan-pajak-hingga-mei-baru-31-dari-target
Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Ubah Batas Dana Wajib Lapor Pajak Jadi Rp 1 Miliar
Ditjen Pajak: Batas
Gaji Bebas Pajak
Belum Bakal Turunhttp://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/3029289/ditjen-pajak-
batas-gaji-bebas-pajak-belum-bakal-turun
Gaji ke-13 Telat, Konsumsi
Masyarakat Lesu?http://ekonomi.kompas.com/read/2017/07/21/194500126/gaj
i-ke-13-telat-konsumsi-masyarakat-lesu-
Tax ratio decreased in the last 5 years
* Preliminary actual.** Without penalties from tax amnesty.*** own projection.Sources: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance; GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia based on 2010 Serie and current prices.
Rp trillion % of GDP
723 874 981 1,077 1,147 1,240 1,284 1,181 1,358
10.5
11.2
11.411.3
10.910.8
10.3
9.5
10.1
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2016** 2017***
Tax revenue (LHS) Tax ratio, (RHS)
Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared to peers
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 21.
S t a y i n g t h e c o u r s e I n d o n e s i a E c o n o m i c Q u a r t e r l y
21 March 2017 THE WORLD BANK | BANK DUNIA
Tim Reformasi is overseeing an ambitious reform agenda that, if implemented, will significantly increase the tax-to-GDP ratio
The Ministry of Finance’s new Tim Reformasi is working fast to outline a detailed roadmap for its four-year tax reform agenda.30 The reforms will be centered on three administrative pillars and one policy pillar: organizational structure and business processes; human resources; the IT system; and tax laws and regulations. The new strategy includes a “quick-wins” list of reforms the Government intends to implement immediately in 2017, but more importantly, it sets out work on fundamental multi-year reforms, including investing in a new IT system. Additionally, on tax administration, the end of the tax amnesty program shifts attention to the question of what Government will be able to do using the newly collected data.
If the Directorate General of Taxes (DGT) is able to successfully use data collected to improve compliance and broaden the tax base, then there may be longer term benefits of the tax amnesty program. On the policy-side, reforms of the VAT and of the tax regime governing medium, small and micro enterprises (PP46) may be prioritized, as may be the income tax law. These proposed reforms broadly seek to expand the taxable base, reduce exemptions, and reduce compliance costs. If the Government is able to successfully pass through the legislative hurdles and implement positive reforms on these areas, then 2017 will prove to be a big year for meaningful, structural reforms. With Indonesia amongst the countries in the region with one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios, this will be a positive development (Figure 37).
Figure 37: Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared to peers (percent of GDP)
Source: IMF; World Bank calculations
30 In addition to Tim Reformasi Perpajakan, the Ministry of Finance also established Tim Penguatan Reformasi Kepabeanan dan Cukai (Custom and Excise Strengthening Reform Team). The work of this team is focused on one administrative and one policy pillar: organizational structure and human resources; and custom and excise laws and regulations. Tim Penguatan Reformasi Kepabeanan dan Cukai aims to improve custom and excise revenues and address long-standing challenges in the custom and excise reform area. (BKF, 2017)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 2011 2012 2013 2014
percent of GDP
Government debt increased sharply in the last two years
IDR
tri
llio
n
% o
f G
DP
* 2016 plus additional Government plan for net new debts; and own projection for nominal GDP.Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and Ministry of Finance.
1,8091,978
2,376
2,609
3,165
3,467
3,856
24.4
24.0
24.924.7
27.4
27.9
28.8
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Total Government debt Debt to GDP ratio
2017Interest payments = Rp 221,405.1New debts (net) = Rp 389,009.3
Indonesia’s sovereign rating by 5 agencies
IG = Investment Grade* Revised from stable** Raised by one notch from BB+Source: Bank Indonesia.
Rating Agency RatingLatest
Awarded Date Outlook Note
Moody's Baa3 Feb. 8, 2017 Positive* IG
Fitch BBB- Dec. 21, 2016 Positive* IG
Rating and Investment BBB- Apr. 5, 2017 Positive* IG
Japan Credit Rating Agency BBB- Mar. 7, 2017 Positive* IG
Standard & Poor's BBB-* May 19, 2017 Stable IG
S&P rating and sovereign bond yields
http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/164681492024146238/EAP-Economic-Update-April-2017.pdf?cid=EXTEAPMonth1
BB+
BB-
BBB
A-
AA-
BBB+
S&P
Government bond yields had significantly decreased over the past year in Indonesia and Vietnam even though both countries had not yet obtained investment grade status
Government bond real yield and credit rating
http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2017/02/11/Indonesia-Selected-Issues-44654
Interest payments as % of total expenditures2015: 8.6% (US: 6.0%)
2016: 9.8%2017: 10.9% bigger than capex
(10.3%)
Perencanaan untuk membuatperekonomian sehat
• Perencanaan untuk mampu mengidentifikasi perluasanbasis pajak.
• Peningkatan pajak dihasilkan dari proses untuk membuatperekonomian sehat.
• Ibarat kita hendak memetik buah yang bermutu: tanamlahdengan bibit unggul, sirami dan pupuk secara teratur.
• Pajak juga begitu. Merupakan hasil dari membangunperekonomian yang berkualitas.
• Jadi pajak tidak mencekik.
Investasi
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Low quality of investment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Average2011-15
Construction 73.1 72.9 73.5 74.6 75.4 73.9
Machinery & equipment 11.4 11.7 11.2 10.2 9.6 10.8
Vehicles 6.0 6.3 5.7 4.6 4.4 5.4
Other equipments 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4
Cultivated biological resources 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.9
Intellectual property products 2.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.6
Structure of gross fixed capital formation, percent
Sep 2016: sagging loan growth, the lowest level since 2009; deposit growth dropped to lowest level since 2004
Sources: Bank Indonesia and Financial Services Authority (OJK).
9.2
10.0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
0
5
10
15
20
25
(y-o-y, % for LHS; % for RHS)
LDR-RHS Credits Third party funds-LHS
Time deposit growth started creeping up since October 2016
Sources: Bank Indonesia and Financial Services Authority (OJK).
6.9
10.911.5
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 Growth, year-on-year, percent
Time deposit (46%) Demand deposit (23%) Saving Account (31%)
Factors that lead to credit growth will still be relatively weak
• Credit growth has always been below 1 digit for the last 14 months
• “We haven’t seen the bottom for NPLs (3.1 % in January 2017) because commodity prices are still volatile and we see uncertainties that can affect our domestic economy.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-
09/indonesia-bad-loan-problem-to-worsen-bank-bailout-chief-says
• “Weak loans" -- which comprises NPLs, special-mention loans and restructured loans, is around 11% of total credit in Indonesia -- is among the highest in Asia. http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Indonesian-banks-tackle-bad-loans-amid-lingering-doubts
Bagian VINeed More Capital Inflow
FDI inflows (net) reached the highest in 2016
* First quarter.Source: Bank Indonesia.
3.42.6
11.1 11.5
13.7
12.2
14.7
10.7
16.0
2.9 2.5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016* 2017*
US$billions
Foreigndirectinvestment(net)
Far more portfolio investment than FDI since 2014
* First quarter.Source: Bank Indonesia.
Terima Kasih
Email: [email protected]: @faisalbasriBlog: faisalbasri.com
Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri
