Keeping U.S. Intelligence Effective: The Need for a Revolution in Intelligence Affairs

William J. LahnemanAssistant Professor

Department of Political Science

Intelligence & 9/11• 9/11 perceived as an intelligence failure

• Many studies, government reports, books, and articles published concerning the need for intelligence reform– “Connecting the dots”

• Many reform initiatives have not produced the desired results

• My research experience– 2000-2005: National Intelligence Council (NIC) Project– 2003-2004: Future of the Internet Project– 2005: Landscapes Project– 2005-2006: Future of Intelligence Analysis Project– 2005-2010: IC Centers of Academic Excellence

• Ideal vantage point for thinking about the kinds of problems facing the U.S. intelligence enterprise

• Heard the term “RIA” mentioned during a meeting

Published March 2011

Revolutions• Periodically occur in all areas of human endeavor when

conditions change so significantly that traditional methods of doing business are rendered obsolete

• Examples– Information Revolution– The Revolution in Military Affairs– Biotechnical Revolution– An Islamist Revolution?

• Revolutions are important!– New winners and losers

Recognizing Revolutions • Four questions (from Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,” Foreign

Affairs (March/April 1996)

1) Will emerging developments in military affairs change the appearance of combat?

2) Will these developments change the structure of armies?

3) Will they lead to the rise of new military elites?4) Will they alter countries’ power positions?

• To the extent answers are “yes,” a Revolution in Military Affairs was occurring.

Cohen’s Conclusion “Reflection on each of these [four questions]

suggests that this is the eve of a far-reaching change in warfare whose outlines are only dimly visible but real nonetheless. (emphasis added)”

- Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,” Foreign Affairs 75/2 (March/April 1996).

Testing for an RIA• Four questions (adapted from Cohen’s RMA

questions)1. Will developments in the intelligence enterprise change

how intelligence is developed and used (process)?2. Will developments change the structure of the U.S.

intelligence community (structure)?3. Will developments lead to the rise of new elites in the

intelligence community (skill sets)? 4. Will developments significantly effect the national

security of countries that fail to embrace them (effect)?

StructureCOLD WAR TODAY

•Single major threat •Many threats•Threats are states •Threats are states, nonstate

actors, global trends…•Emphasis on learning secrets •Emphasis on solving mysteries

and learning secrets•Emphasis on technical means •Emphasis on human intelligence•Most information classified •Open source revolution•Greatest danger is large scale nuclear attack

•Greatest danger is small scale attack by terrorists with WMDs

•Intelligence used for national security

•Intelligence used for national, regional & global security

ProcessCOLD WAR TODAY

•Most $$ to technical collection agencies

More $$ to human collection

•Nature of threat gave most $$ to DoD

Nature of threat requires more $$ to non-DoD agencies

•Each agency had clear mission New missions don’t fit old structure

•Need for information security fostered stovepiping

Need for extensive knowledge sharing

Skill SetsCOLD WAR TODAY

•Knowledge is power: keep it to yourself

•Knowledge sharing is power

•Technology the concern of well-defined organizations and personnel

•Everyone must understand certain technologies, both to analyze issues and to conduct day-to-day operations

An RIA is Needed• The answer to all four questions is “yes.” An RIA appears to

be needed (but is not yet occurring)

– The intelligence process should change.

– The organizational structure to support the process should change.

– Future elites in the intelligence community should possess new skills.

– Failure to adapt will have serious consequences.

Mapping the RIA• Thomas Kuhn and The Structure of Scientific

Revolutions (first edition by University of Chicago Press, 1962)

– Paradigms and paradigm shifts• Must first map the current or “traditional”

intelligence paradigm– Solving puzzles using secret information• Puzzles have answers (as opposed to mysteries)

– All raw intelligence obtained through SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT

Intelligence Requirements in Today’s Security Environment

• North Korea• Iran, China, and other functioning states• Pakistan, Afghanistan, Congo, Somalia, & other

failing or failed states• Al Qaeda and other transnational terrorist

groups• HIV/AIDS, Avian Flu, SARS and other Infectious

Diseases• Biopathogens

A New Intelligence Paradigm• New paradigm must include the old one. Both must function

without creating “destructive interference.”

• New paradigm must solve puzzles, mysteries, and “adaptive interpretations.”

• Adaptive interpretations apply to transnational issues/threats– SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT not sufficient – need

new category of “trusted” information as well as classified and open source information

– Transnational threats require transnational solutions

Conclusions• Many intelligence reforms have not met expectations because

they clash with the traditional paradigm.– Bureaucratic inertia & immersion in traditional paradigm– Competing needs, such as information sharing vs. security concerns

• The traditional paradigm remains necessary, but it is not sufficient to keep U.S. intelligence effective.

• A Revolution in Intelligence Affairs is needed.– Actors that embrace the RIA will gain advantages over those that

continue with traditional practices• Information flows and new collection methods are at the heart

of the RIA. Analytic techniques must change accordingly.

Contact information: William Lahnemanwlahneman@towson.edu

410-991-1075

Public Health andHomeland Security Badolato Distinguished Speakers Series

Towson UniversityApril 29, 2011

Nikki Austin, PhD, MA, RN, CNEAssistant Professor

Department of NursingTowson University

Public Health TodayPopulation Based Care

• Violence Prevention• MRSA• Smallpox• Chagus Disease• West Nile Virus• Pandemic/Avian Flu• Obesity• Disaster Preparedness• Health Disparities

• Terrorism– Chemical– Biological– Nuclear – Radiological Dispersion

http://www.whatispublichealth.org/impact/today.html

Public Health

• Public health assessments• Information sharing• Triage priorities from a public health

perspective• Casualty distribution – knowledge of

resources, development of procedures• Disaster preparedness- public motivation(Landesman et al., 2003, p. 4)

Federal Legislation

• Homeland Security Act of 2002– Homeland Security Presidential Directive 5• National• Government & Private Sectors• Crisis and consequence • DHS Secretary to manage incidents• Rubin & Harrald (2006)

– National Response Plan– National Incident Management System

Shared Responsibility• National Culture of Preparedness (Pres. George W. Bush, 5 OCT 2007)

• National Strategy for Homeland Security– All levels of government– Private sector– Communities– All citizens

Community Preparedness Activities

• Citizen Corps– The mission of Citizen Corps is to harness the power of every individual through

education, training, and volunteer service to make communities safer, stronger, and better prepared to respond to the threats of terrorism, crime, public health issues, and disasters of all kinds. http://www.citizencorps.gov/about/

• Medical Reserve Corps– The mission of the MRC is to engage volunteers to strengthen public health, emergency

response and community resiliency. http://www.medicalreservecorps.gov/About

• National Disaster Medical System– It is the mission of the National Disaster Medical System to temporarily supplement

Federal, Tribal, State and Local capabilities by funding, organizing, training, equipping, deploying and sustaining a specialized and focused range of public health and medical capabilities. http://www.phe.gov/preparedness/responders/ndms/Pages/default.aspx

Towson University’s MRC

10th Medical Regiment(Military-

based MRC)

Baltimore County Health

Department

Towson University

Maryland Defense

Force

Towson University – Thinking Outside

• Students, faculty, staff, community• Partner agencies• Education and drills• Student education– Integrated Homeland Security Management• Off campus student projects

– College of Health Professions• Department of Nursing: On and off campus activities

TU, Students, and Community• Student Projects with IHSM 633 (Disaster Response

and Community Health) – Disaster plan in Dunbar High School*– Disaster plan in a church in northern Japan*– Disaster notification plan in a community– Education for rural older adults in W. VA.– Disaster preparedness for an at-risk population in West Baltimore– Disaster plan for the Baltimore City Public Safety Center– Disaster education at Johns Hopkins Hospital*– Disaster preparedness at a senior center on Long Island*Places where disasters occurred after our planning.

• Projects within the Department of Nursing’s Graduate Program– Disaster education with the Bykota Senior Center– Disaster education with the Our Lady of Grace

Parish’s Youth Theater Group– Disaster education in a local elementary school in

Baltimore City

TU, Students, and Community

OPERATION STAT 2010Emergency Preparedness Drill

Thanks to Dr. Agley for the graphics!

Tornado on CampusSituation: Tornado on York Rd from I-695 to Baltimore City. Campus affected, multiple casualties, local authorities overwhelmed, MDDF deployed in Burdick Hall.

Dr. Alves, ED Physician & Dr. Ogle, Nursing Faculty

Nursing Student & Our Lady of Grace Actors

Nursing Students & Our Lady of Grace Actors

Our Lady of Grace Actors and a Mom

Maryland National Guard: Support and Education

Nursing Students and MDDF Chaplain

Evacuation Education at Towson Center

MDDF, Best Ambulance, Nursing Students

Some numbers:•1000 people •Close to 400 Nursing students•Faculty• Nursing• Health Science• Education

•Community partners•Military partners•State agencies•Children from 11 different school districts•Students from campus•Seniors from Bykota Senior Center

Public Health Planning, Preparedness, Education

Simulation to Real Time Public Health Issue: Flu!

References

• Rubin, C. B., & Harrald, J. R. (2006). National response plan, the national incident management system, and the federal response plan. In D. G. Kamien (Ed.). The McGraw-Hill homeland security handbook (pp. 677-688). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.

• Landesman, L. Y., Malilay, J., Bissel, R. J., et al.,Becker, S. M., Roberts, L., & Ascher, M. S. (2003). Roles and responsibilities of public health in disaster preparedness and response. In L. F. Novick, J. S. Marr (Eds.). Public health issues in disaster preparedness: Focus on bioterrorism (pp. 1-56). Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett.

• Homeland Security Council. (2007). National strategy for homeland security. Retrieved from http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/nat_strat_homelandsecurity_2007.pdf

The Economics of Homeland Security

Daraius Irani

The Department of Homeland Security

The Department of Homeland Security

DHS.gov

Sept. 11th, 2001 Terrorist attacks against the U.S. at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon

Nov. 25th, 2002 President Bush signs the Homeland Security Act creating the DHS. The department will come to employ more than 190,000 people

March 1st, 2003 22 existing agencies from other cabinet level departments are merged together form the first DHS

2003 Creation of The Bureau of Customs and Border Protection focus on security at and between the ports-of-entry along the border

2002

2003

2003 Formation of The Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Presently employs more than 20,000 people and is the 2nd largest investigative agency in the Federal Government

The Department of Homeland SecurityThe Department of Homeland Security

Original Agencies

• The U.S. Customs Service (Treasury)

• The Immigration and Naturalization Service (Justice)

• The Transportation Security Administration (Transportation)

• Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (Treasury)

• Office for Domestic Preparedness (Justice)

• The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

• National Domestic Preparedness Office (FBI)

• U.S. Coast Guard (Transportation)

• U.S. Secret Service (Treasury)

Many existing agencies were merged to form the DHSThe largest of which are:

DHS.gov

Series1Other

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

DHS Directives

• Border and Transportation Security• Protection of Critical Infrastructure• Emergency Preparedness and Response• Domestic Counterterrorism• Intelligence and Warning• Defense Against Catastrophic Threats

Border and Transportation Security

Protection of Infra.

EmergPrep.

DomCount.

Intel.

FAS.org

2010 Budget Distribution

DHS Employment and Budget

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

020406080

100120140160180200

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

National Employment in Thousands by DHSBillion of budget $

Nati

onal

Em

ploy

men

t (Th

ousa

nds)

Billi

ons

of D

olla

rs

OPM and DHS

Before and After DHS Formation

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Year Spending on Homeland Security

% of nominal GDP

Private sector labor inputs

Private sector capital inputs

2001 $56 Billion 0.55 $26.5B $9.4B

2005 $99.5 Billion 0.80 $28.7B $16.6 B

Industry Growth as a Result of DHS

• Chemical, biological, and radiological detection• Border, rail, seaport, industrial, and nuclear

plant security • Computer and human resources experts• Boat manufacturers for the Coast Guard• Information and integrated technology

companies• Management consulting firms

USA Today

THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND MARYLAND

DHS Employment

1998*1999*

2000*2001*

2002*2003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20100

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

DC Virginia Maryland

D.C

. Lev

els

MD

and

VA

Lev

els

OPM Employment Cubes

RESI Analysis of DHS Impacts on Maryland 2002-2010

Direct Indirect Induced Total

1,481 684 4,480 6,645

Employment

Direct Indirect Induced Total

$35,602,852 $31,937,779 $184,041,219 $251,581,852

Labor Income

Total

$340,800,185

Value Added to GDP

Maryland Procurement from DHS

Procurement Contracts in 2009:•$14,559,856,536 (U.S. total)

•$1,674,925,917 (Maryland total)

•12% (Maryland share of U.S. total)

Salaries and Wages in 2008:• $12,333,918,562 (U.S. total)• $255,569,717 (Maryland total)• 2.1% (Maryland share of U.S. total)

ChooseMaryland.org

Top 10 FY2010 DHS Contractors

Rank Vendor Name Dollars Obligated

1 International Business Systems (IBM) $557,280,986

2 Lockheed Martin Corporation $427,791,355

3 Unisys Corporation $400,757,376

4 Science Applications International Corporation

$347,251,403

5 Bollinger Shipyards Lockport, LLC $322,491,842

6 Computer Sciences Corporation $311,479,779

7 General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems

$311,304,859

8 Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. $244,373,784

9 L-3 Communications Corporation $236,877,693

10 The Boeing Company $207,544,578

Government Security News 2011

Maryland Higher Education

Multi-year awards ranging between $10 million to $18 million

• Behavioral and sociological aspects of terrorism at the University of Maryland

• High consequence event preparedness and response at Johns Hopkins

FAS.org

DHS AND CYBER SECURITY

Information Technology in Maryland

• From 2009-2014 government spending is expected to grow: 3.5% per year in general IT 8.1% a year in cyber security

• IT Employment Growth (2001-2008) - Maryland: +3.3% - National Average: -17.1%

• Computing Services in Maryland +7.2% employment increase in mid-recession 2009

- Highest growth rate in the nation Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development

Cyber Security and Maryland

UMBCMaryland Department of Business & Economic Development

Federal Cyber Security Employment In Maryland

Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development

Military Installation =1000 employees