In a recent study by the Cleveland Federal Reserve, Boston was identi-

fied as the city that has experienced the greatest amount of gentrifica-

tion since 2000. As the cost of living in the city becomes more expen-

sive, residents are forced to suburban fringe areas in search of afforda-

bility. The Greater Boston Metropolitan Region, consisting of 101 dis-

tinct towns, falls under the planning jurisdiction of the Metropolitan

Area Planning Commission. According to principles of smart growth,

metropolitan fringe areas should emphasize car-free accessibility and

transit-oriented development.

In this analysis, these principles

were the framework to examine the

relationship between two factors:

the adequacy of Boston’s public

transportation system to connect

residents in the Greater Boston

Metropolitan Region to the urban

center, and housing prices throughout the region. Through the intersec-

tion of these features, the analysis uses GIS to address spatial questions

about the existence of accessible, affordable zones for commuters in the

Metro Boston region.

The first part of the analysis consisted of determining accessibility

zones for each of the MBTA Commuter Rail, Subway, and Bus Stops.

A buffer of 3 miles was used for each in order to rep-

resent the reasonable distance someone could reach a

station without a car (by bike or on foot). Each buffer

was given the fare value of the distinct MBTA zone to

determine monthly transportation cost. Additionally,

the percentage of the population living within the

buffer was determined using the total population esti-

mate and calculating the portion of each unit of area

within the buffer.

U.S. Census data for Median Home Values and

Monthly Housing Costs were used as indicators for

housing affordability. These values are represented in

the map at the scale of census block groups, the smallest possible unit of analysis.

The census data was then combined with the transportation cost data to determine an aggregate

cost based on monthly housing expenditures and the price of an MBTA monthly pass. To model

cost over a period of time, the monthly transportation cost was extrapolated into a fifteen-year

cost and depicted as a portion of median home value.

Each of these factors was then analyzed for each individual town. The three resultant analyses

consisted of: percentage of town within a 3 mile radius of an MBTA rail/bus stop, monthly

transportation costs based on commuter rail zone, and median home values. The three resulting

maps were then combined into one map showing the desirability of each town based on the

aforementioned factors.

The results of the initial analysis at the block group level

showed few strong trends in housing prices, except for

three notably higher priced areas: directly to the west of

Boston, and on the north and south coasts of Massachu-

setts Bay (see maps at bottom, center). Factoring in transit

costs on the block group level resulted in a significant dif-

ference between long term and short-term

cost, with the impact of higher transit costs

much greater in the long term than

as a monthly expense (shown in

maps at right).

In the next step of the analysis, the

combination of the three criteria

(accessibility, transit cost, and

home values) was calculated for

each town. This created a map de-

picting a range of desirability for the region

(depicted at left). The results of this analysis

show that the most affordable towns for

commuters are the suburbs closely border-

ing Boston, far enough to avoid the urban

housing bubble and close enough to be

within affordable commuting distance.

Further analysis could incor-

porate existing bike paths

and roads to find the actual

distance from each station

along a network rather than

distance as the crow flies.

Additionally, looking at

characteristics of the region’s population, affordability could be measured as a

function of income and cost burden. It would also be valuable to do a compari-

son of different types of housing tenure, such as rental and owner-occupied. The metric devel-

oped, as well as the possible unexplored factors, could be applied to any city in order to assess

its commuter suitability.

Massachusetts Office of Geographic Information

American FactFinder: 2013 ACS 5-Year Estimates

Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority

BACKGROUND COMMUTER DESIRABILITY BY TOWN

BASED ON ACCESS TO TRANSIT, MEDIAN HOME VALUES, AND

MONTHLY TRANSPORTATION COSTS

METHODS

Low

High

$330

$306

$289

$265

$239

$222

$198

$182

$75

Low Cost

High Cost

Low Cost

High Cost

TOWN RANKING

Chelsea 1

Everett 2

Revere 2

Malden 3

Braintree 3

Holbrook 3

Weymouth 4

Abington 4

Brockton 4

Winthrop 4

Lynn 4

Avon 4

RESULTS

FURTHER ANALYSIS

Long Term Aggregate Cost

Short Term Aggregate Cost

Flora Lang

Intro to GIS Fall 2014

SOURCES