Backcasting the Future of Animal Health Research
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Transcript of Backcasting the Future of Animal Health Research
pathways to the future !
!
Claire Heffernan [email protected]
STAR-IDAZ: Infectious Diseases of Animals/Zoonosis: a global foresight exercise
17 – 20 June, 2014
Moscow, Russia
• a probable future: predictive scenarios
• a possible future: explorative scenarios
• a preferable future: normative scenarios
!
The distinguishing characteristic of backcasting is…explicitly normative, involving working backwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present…to determine the physical feasibility of that future and what policy measures [are] required. (Robinson,1996)
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backcasting
• the vision?
• impediments vs. enablers?
• pathways to meet the vision?
!
the oracle of delphi
‘new thought’ movement
• late 19th and early 20th century
• positive thoughts of the future
• thoughts and beliefs as cosmic entities
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global health alliances
• the research-base
• beliefs about outcomes
• collective action: funding and political will
Sustainable livestock production, with healthy animals reared under high welfare standards, disease outbreaks minimised or rapidly contained, ensuring a safe and secure food supply.
Madrid: the vision
sustainability
• a value rather than a context
• notions change over time
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barriers
Panzootics
Social Forces
Resource Scarcity
Animal Health
Cost of Control
Disease Reservoirs
Feed/Food Conflict
Sector Sustainability
Lack of IndicatorsLand Use Change
Surveillance
Pathogen Evolution
Water Availability
Cost of Energy
Farm Sizes
Feed ImportsSubsidies
War/Famine
Activists Lack of WTP
Vested Interest
Lack of Public Awareness
Pollution
EU Expansion
enablers
PolicyNetworks/Approaches
Investment Trade
PP partnerships
ControlDisease
CAP
Research Social
One Health
Systems
Harmonisation
Traceability
Technologies
Education
Science
research & capacity building
Research to alleviate !barriers
Research to optimise !enablers
Collection, harmonisation, utilisation of existing data!Greater investment in research networks!Improving traceability/surveillance!Increase knowledge of the environmental drivers that we can control and manage.! !
Greater investment in research networks
Surveillance, early detection and early warning!Better understanding of public perception, decision-making!Increase knowledge of the environmental drivers!Water quality
Optimising traceability & surveillance networks
Vector control !Monitoring of vector population!Genetics of resistance of host/ resistance of local breeds!Low cost diagnostics and diagnostic platforms, pen-side test !Health implications of alternative feeds! !Optimal environmental conditions for control of pathogens such as campylobacter.!Coherent integrated farm energy supply/management, optimal balance between energy use and energy production
the new vision
• animal disease minimised or rapidly contained ensuring a safe and secure food supply
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the approach
1. What elements are different between our vision and today?
2. What are the steps needed to meet this vision?
3. What is the knowledge/research required to meet this vision?
the present vs. the future
changes required:
• to the economic/social/environmental context?
• to the ‘knowledge’ environment?
• to the policy environment?
the steps
• creating a time-line
• identifying key events
• barriers vs. enablers
• quick scanning the research required
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the time-line
2014 2050?changing consumer demand
resource scarcity
rise in global temperature
increase in EIDs
decline in global
livestock population
artificial milk/meat
barriers and enablers
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Within&our&control&
Out&of&our&control&
Barriers&
Enablers&
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scanning: research & capacity
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• livestock vs. non-livestock-related
• blue-sky (basic) vs. applied
• knowledge-sharing networks
• specific to the time-line events/region
outcomes1. define key factors that will support or
inhibit our vision of sustainable disease control/livestock production.
2. identify key areas of research/capacity/building/knowledge transfer to support the vision going into the future
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