Backcasting introduction jaco quist 12th march 2014

1Challenge the future

Backcasting for 100% Renewables in Scotland in 2030:Introduction & Todays program

Jaco Quist, [email protected] Energy & Industry SectionFaculty of Technology, Policy, Management

mailto:[email protected]


0. About myself:• 1994-1997, STD program, organising

& supporting backcasting projects

• 1998 – 2000, TUD, conducting participatory backcasting

• 2001 – 2007, framework + evaluating backcasting & impacts

• Since 2007, research into backcasting, sustainability transitions, sustainable & responsible innovation, technology assessment. Teaching in Technology &Policy, Industrial Ecology, SET

• 2007: dissertation on the impact of backcasting• 2010: European Roundtable Sustainable Concumption & Production (ERSCP)• 2011: Special issue on backcasting (TFSC)• 2013: Special volume sustainable innovation & business models (JCP)• 2013: Special section learning & collaboration sustainable innovation (JCP)


1. Backcasting: introduction

Backcasting: Create a desirable sustainable future first before looking back from that future how it could have been achieved and planning initial steps how to move towards that future.

Backcasting: Particularly useful in case of complex

‘wicked’ problems that include dominant trends; when market-based solutions are insufficient; a need for a major change; long time horizons allow strong alternatives (Dreborg ’96)

Backcasting: Intervention approach related to Constructive TA, and Transition Mangement

Backcasting: Normative turn in foresight & more popular, e.g. Gidden (2009) The politics of Climate Change, pp 98-100.

27-10-2011


Present

Future

ForecastingBAU Scenarios

Present

Future

Exploratory Scenarios

Present

Future

BackcastingPredict most

likely futureExplore

alternative futures

Assess feasibility of desirable

future(s)

27-10-2011


2000 2050

TIME

Future-Vision

Backcasting

Backca

sting

ECOEFFICIENCY

Milestones

Backcasting: from vision to action

CHARACTERISTICSExplicitly normative

Participatory System oriented,

Desired futures & changes (action-oriented)

Combines process, design, analysis Transdisciplinary

Helpful if institutions / rule system lack


April 7, 2023

Backcasting: 3 key elements

Vision

stakeholders learning

Content results

Process results

Impact


Development of backcasting

• 1960s -> Normative Forecasting (Jantsch / Linstone)Has evolved into roadmapping

• 1970s -> Energy Backcasting (Lovins/ Robinson/ Steen)Revival, e.g. in Japan and UK (Tyndall)

• 1990s -> Sustainability backcasting (Höjer/ Bannister/ v Wee)

• Mid 1990s -> Participatory backcasting (NL/Swe/Can/UK) Blending -> industrial ecology, adaptive management, TM

27-10-2011


Backcasting: from vision to niche

• Backcasting works

• No science fiction / no pink cloud thinking / no fairy tales

• Visions important in follow-up, supported by networks , agency

• Not always follow-up

• Follow-up as niches, not yet transitions, stepping stones

• Repository.tudelft.nl or www.eburon.nl

http://www.eburon.nl/


Step 1 Strategic Problem orientation Analysis

Step 2 Normative future image Vision

Step 3 Backcasting Wat is necessary?

Step 4 Elaboration, analysis Action agenda Step 5 Embedding, ‘implementation’ Follow-up

Methods: I Analysis, II Design, III Interaction, IV ManagementDemands: i Normative, ii Process, iii Knowledge

Backcasting: methodological framework


10October 4, 2011 10

20502000 TIME

Vision of the future

Backca

sting

STEPS

Backcasting: step by step

Backcasting

1. SPO

2. Makevision

3. BC

4. Pathway & Agenda

5. Embedding &

Implementation


Novel Protein Foods 40% Meat alternatives in 2040 instead of meat

Groups of 3?? 1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)?2. How can these changes be achieved?3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed? 4. What are drivers and barriers for this System

Innovation?

Adjusting future vision allowed!

Today: backcasting excersise

Future Vision


04/07/23

Necessary changes

Culture Consumer & societal acceptance different position of meat, consumer benefits

Structure Smaller livestock and meat sector (related policies), new NPF sector

Technology

New knowledge and technology for foods, production systems and chains

Novel Protein Foods (NPF)


WHAT-HOW-WHO

04/07/23

WHAT HOW WHO

Better vegetarian foods Product developmentFundamenmtal rsesearch

FirmsFirms & research bodies

Awareness on issues of meat consumption & production & behavioural change by consumers

Public campaignsEducationGood attractive productsTaxing meat ,

Govt, ngo’s , Govt, educational bodiesFirmsGovt

Smaller meat/livestock industry & growing vegetarian protein food industry

Market developmentsSubsidies & supportive policiesRestructuring meat sector including re-education

Firms & consumersGovt, Govt & educational bodies


GLAMURS Green Lifestyles, Alternative Models, & Upscaling Regional SustainabilitiyBackcasting for regional grassroots niches

Danube-Bohemian

Forest (Austria)

Saxony-Anhanlt

(Germany)

Banat-Timis (Romania)

Trentino Alto Adige

(Italy)

Rotterdam-Delft-The

Hague (The Netherland

s)

Aberdeenshire (Scotland,

UK)

Galicia (Spain)


3 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TEXEL: DENNIS RICKEN SET THESIS WORK

2007, ,municipality of Texel decided to go for self-sufficiency

Most recent feasibility study indicate that it could not be achieved

Municipality maintains ambition, but new strategy needed Goal: gaining insight into the opportunities, potentials and

barriersWhat are the opportunities, potentials and barriers for

developing and implementing a sustainable energy system that makes ,Island Texel energy self-sufficient in

2020?

Main research question is formulated as follows:


CONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS

Also difference in storage and power infrastructure

Scenario A: Trend growth Scenario B: Energy conservation

Energy supply

Centralized energy system Decentralized energy systemElectricity demand: 80.10 GWh

Share

Electricity demand: 100 GWh Share

Solar: solar fieldsWind: wind turbinesGeo: geothermal power plantBio: CHPs based on biogas

22%35%35%28%

Solar: solar panelsWind: small wind turbinesBio: CHPs based on biogas

30%18%50%

Heat demand: 167.78 GWh Heat demand: 128.25 GWh

Geo: geothermal power plantHCS: open and closed systemsBio: co-digestion, CHP, WWTP

36%45%20%

Solar: solar thermal collectorsHCS: open and closed systemsBio: (co-)digestion, CHP, WWTP

32%35%32%

Process demand: 9.81 GWh Process demand: 7.5 GWhBio: co-digestion, WWTP 100

%Bio: (co-)digestion, WWTP 100%

Fuel demand: 115.82 GWh Fuel demand: 3.9 GWhBio: photobioreactors, cleaning

100%

Bio: fermentation plant 100%


Energy Delta Gas Research (EDGaR)

• Research project “The next 50 years”:• What is a robust long-term sustainability strategy for

the gas sector?


6 perspectives using Q-methodology(Eefje Cuppen, Olga di Ruggerio)

1. Decentralized domestic sustainability with natural gas as backup

2. a) All-electric society, decentralized sustainability, no natural gas

2. b) Gas country the Netherlands

3. Widespread replacement of dirty fossil fuels by (natural) gas

4. Different technologies and systems simultaneously

5. Market-driven change, resisting lock-in of current situations and systems,

toward more sustainability


100% renewables 2030

3 Subgroups for 3 visions

1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)?2. How can these changes be achieved?3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed? 4. What are drivers and barriers for this

System Innovation?

Adjusting future vision allowed!

Today: Scotland backcasting excersise

Future Vision


Program (1)• 11.30 – 13.00 First round of visioning & backcasting

• Vision Lead introduction• What are major parts/elements of vision (Technological,

Cultural, Structural)? (15 mins)• What goals & targets to be achieved in 2030? (15 mins)

• Backcasting (in groups of 4-5) (12.15-12.40 hr)• What changes are necessary (C, S, T)? • How can these changes be achieved?• Who (which stakeholders) are needed?

• Backcasting Report Back (12.40-13.00 hr)


Program (2)

• 14.00 – 15.30 Scenario Elaboration for 3 visions in teams of 4/5

• Defining Pathways (2015-2020-2030) (40 minutes)• What activities needed in government domain (over time)?• What activities needed in business-utilities domain (over time)?• What activities needed in research-knowledge domain?• What activities needed in civil society-public interest domain? • What is a good follow-up agenda and next steps?

• Exchange within one vision group (25 minutes)• Preparing plenary presentations (25 minutes)


Transitions: CO2 neutral energy

2000 2030

Fossileenergy

CO2 neutral

Clean fossileincl. CO2sequestration

Windparkon sea

Biofuel outof wast

Infrastructurefor hydrogen

Storage of heat;use of heat pumpsPower-heat

coupling atdomestic scale

PV parkson land


Program (3)

• 16.00 – 17.15 Plenary Reporting & Discussion• 16.00-16.20 Stand Alone Scottish Network Scenario • 16.20-16.40 Local Energy Autarky Scenario (Pod)• 16.40-17.00 UK Centric Scenario (Plenary)

• Final Discussion & Next Steps (17.00-17.15)

• 17.15 – 18.30 Reception and Networking


In Conclusion

• Backcasting explained

• Examples given

• Todays progam described

• Let’s get started !

1. UK Centric scenario • (Plenary, Iain Staffel, Gary Polhil)

2. Scotland Alone scenario • (Breakout, Stewart Haseldine, Tony Craig)

3. Local Energy Autarky scenario • (Pod, Andrew Peacock, Jaco Quist)

Backcasting introduction jaco quist 12th march 2014

Environment

Transcript of Backcasting introduction jaco quist 12th march 2014