Back to work or stay-at-home mother? Maternal employment in Finland
Back to work or stay-at-home mother? Maternal employment in Finland
-
Upload
kelan-tutkimus-research-at-kela -
Category
Government & Nonprofit
-
view
67 -
download
0
Transcript of Back to work or stay-at-home mother? Maternal employment in Finland
Back to work or stay-at-home mother?Maternal employment in FinlandTapio RäsänenResearcher, Kela
Finnish Economic AssociationXXXIX Annual Meeting
In cooperation with:Eva Österbacka, Professor, Åbo Akademi UniversityAnita Haataja, Senior Researcher, KelaMaria Valaste, Senior Researcher, Kela
2
Maternal employment in Finland
• Maternal employment is internationally high• Universal child-care system
• Child home care, Private day care, Public day care
Research questionDoes policy affect the duration of mothers’ prolonged child care spells?
We control for− Personal and family characteristics− Previous labor market attachment− Business cycle
3
Data & methodology
• 50 % random sample of Finnish mothers giving first birth between 1999 and 2009• Each cohort is followed up until 2013
• Data on• Employment and unemployment spells• Maternity and parental leave spells• Child home care allowance spells• Availability of municipal supplements
• We model return to labor market on• Personal and family characteristics• Previous work experience and labor market activity• Policy, e.g. municipal supplements (and speed premium?)
4
Back to work or to employmentLabor market attachment before childbirth
Maximum age difference of 1st and 2nd child is 6 years.Labour market attachment: High >= 22 months, Low < 22 months.
5
Employment (re)entry, 1 childActivity before and after first childbirth, cohort 2005
6
Employment (re)entry, 2 childrenActivity before and after first and second childbirth, cohort 2005
* Age difference max. 36 months
7
Labor market activity before first childbirthLast activity 4 months prior to giving birth
* Other = No labor market activity during last 4 months before giving birth
8
Labor market activity before second childbirthLast activity and HCA usage 4 months prior to giving birth
* Other = No labor market activity during last 4 months before giving birth
9
Survival analysisWhat affects employment (re)entry?
• Cohorts 2001 to 2009• After childbirth, new mothers are followed until they are right
censored or return to labor market:− at next childbirth, at dissolution or at 36 months (event = 0)− return to labor market (event = 1)
• Problems• PH assumption not valid: baseline hazard varies over time
• We analyze the effect of covariates− with Kaplan-Meier curves− with Cox proportional hazards models− with Piecewise exponential model
10
Employment entry or re-entry after childbirthby Mother’s personal income
After first childbirth After second childbirth
11
Piecewise exponential hazards modelIs baseline hazard constant between intervals?
• Interval boundaries:• 10.5, 18.5, 24.5, 30.5
• Allow covariates to change between intervals:• Unemployed partner• Region• Municipal unemployment rate• Municipal supplements
12
SummaryPreliminary results
• Different individual and family characteristics affect the timing of the return
• Home care allowance postpones the return to the labor market among mothers
• Higher allowances postpones even further• Increase in duration is significant for both employed and unemployed
13
Discussion
• Cox proportional hazards model and Piecewise exponential model yield similar results
• Violation of proportional hazard assumption and the piecewise estimation
Thank you!