Bac Zack Hold

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© 2012Zacks Investment Research, All Rights reserved. www.Zacks.com 111 North Canal Street, Chicago IL 60606 Bank of America Corporation (BAC-NYSE) SUMMARY SUMMARY DATA Risk Level * Below Avg., Type of Stock Large-Value Industry Banks-Major Reg Zacks Industry Rank * 89 out of 267 Current Recommendation NEUTRAL Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 02/14/2012 Current Price (12/03/12) $9.80 Target Price $10.50 Bank of America reported break-even earnings in the third quarter, compared with a loss, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by substantially lower provision for credit losses and almost stable operating expenses. Further, improved credit quality across most major portfolios as well as strong mortgage banking and investment banking performances were the other highlights. On the flip side was the lower top line. Moreover, the company continues to make significant progress in strengthening its balance sheet as reflected by improved capital ratios. Nevertheless, we expect various revenue headwinds, continuous litigations and various issues related to the regulatory changes, which will continue to impact the near-term results. Overall, the company is making every effort to keep itself afloat. Measures like realigning the balance sheet in accordance with regulatory changes, expense reduction initiatives and continuously improving asset quality vouch for better prospects going forward. 52-Week High $9.94 52-Week Low $4.99 One-Year Return (%) 69.67 Beta 2.34 Average Daily Volume (sh) 135,938,800 Shares Outstanding (mil) 10,777 Market Capitalization ($mil) $105,615 Short Interest Ratio (days) 1.46 Institutional Ownership (%) 54 Insider Ownership (%) 1 Annual Cash Dividend $0.04 Dividend Yield (%) 0.41 5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates Sales (%) 10.1 Earnings Per Share (%) -20.9 Dividend (%) -60.0 P/E using TTM EPS 15.6 P/E using 2012 Estimate 23.9 P/E using 2013 Estimate 9.9 Zacks Rank *: Short Term 1 3 months outlook 3 - Hold * Definition / Disclosure on last page ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES Revenue Estimates (In millions of $) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) 2010 32,290 A 29,450 A 26,982 A 22,668 A 111,390 A 2011 27,095 A 13,483 A 28,702 A 25,146 A 94,426 A 2012 22,485 A 22,202 A 20,657 A 22,265 E 87,609 E 2013 91,511 E Earnings Per Share Estimates (EPS is operating earnings before non-recurring items, but including employee stock options expenses) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec) 2010 $0.28 A $0.27 A $0.27 A $0.04 A $0.86 A 2011 $0.17 A -$0.90 A -$0.02 A -$0.01 A -$0.76 A 2012 $0.34 A $0.19 A $0.00 A -$0.12 E $0.41 E 2013 $0.99 E Projected EPS Growth - Next 5 Years % 6 December 04, 2012

Transcript of Bac Zack Hold

  • 2012Zacks Investment Research, All Rights reserved. www.Zacks.com

    111 North Canal Street, Chicago IL 60606

    Bank of America Corporation

    (BAC-NYSE) SUMMARY

    SUMMARY DATA

    Risk Level * Below Avg., Type of Stock Large-Value Industry Banks-Major Reg Zacks Industry Rank * 89 out of 267

    Current Recommendation NEUTRAL

    Prior Recommendation Underperform Date of Last Change 02/14/2012

    Current Price (12/03/12) $9.80 Target Price $10.50

    Bank of America reported break-even earnings in the third quarter, compared with a loss, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by substantially lower provision for credit losses and almost stable operating expenses. Further, improved credit quality across most major portfolios as well as strong mortgage banking and investment banking performances were the other highlights. On the flip side was the lower top line. Moreover, the company continues to make significant progress in strengthening its balance sheet as reflected by improved capital ratios. Nevertheless, we expect various revenue headwinds, continuous litigations and various issues related to the regulatory changes, which will continue to impact the near-term results. Overall, the company is making every effort to keep itself afloat. Measures like realigning the balance sheet in accordance with regulatory changes, expense reduction initiatives and continuously improving asset quality vouch for better prospects going forward.

    52-Week High $9.94 52-Week Low $4.99 One-Year Return (%) 69.67 Beta 2.34 Average Daily Volume (sh) 135,938,800

    Shares Outstanding (mil) 10,777 Market Capitalization ($mil) $105,615 Short Interest Ratio (days) 1.46 Institutional Ownership (%) 54 Insider Ownership (%) 1

    Annual Cash Dividend $0.04 Dividend Yield (%) 0.41

    5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates

    Sales (%) 10.1 Earnings Per Share (%) -20.9 Dividend (%) -60.0

    P/E using TTM EPS 15.6

    P/E using 2012 Estimate 23.9 P/E using 2013 Estimate 9.9

    Zacks Rank *: Short Term 1

    3 months outlook 3 - Hold * Definition / Disclosure on last page

    ZACKS CONSENSUS ESTIMATES

    Revenue Estimates (In millions of $)

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec)

    2010 32,290 A 29,450 A 26,982 A 22,668 A 111,390 A 2011 27,095 A 13,483 A 28,702 A 25,146 A 94,426 A 2012 22,485 A 22,202 A 20,657 A 22,265 E 87,609 E 2013 91,511 E

    Earnings Per Share Estimates (EPS is operating earnings before non-recurring items, but including employee stock options expenses)

    Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year (Mar) (Jun) (Sep) (Dec) (Dec)

    2010

    $0.28 A $0.27 A $0.27 A $0.04 A $0.86 A 2011

    $0.17 A -$0.90 A -$0.02 A -$0.01 A -$0.76 A 2012

    $0.34 A $0.19 A $0.00 A -$0.12 E $0.41 E 2013

    $0.99 E

    Projected EPS Growth - Next 5 Years % 6

    December 04, 2012

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    OVERVIEW

    Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, Bank of America Corporation is a financial holding company. Its banking and non-banking subsidiaries across the United States and in other international markets provide a diverse range of banking and non-banking financial services and products.

    Effective January 2012, Bank of America changed the basis of presenting its business operations from six segments to five: Consumer and Business Banking (CBB), Consumer Real Estate Services (CRES), Global Banking, Global Markets, and Global Wealth and Investment Management (GWIM). The remaining operations are recorded in All Other.

    The Consumer and Business Banking (CBB) segment comprising Deposits, Card Services and Business Banking businesses, provides a wide range of credit, banking and investment products and services to consumers and businesses.

    The Consumer Real Estate Services (CRES) segment originates first- and second-lien mortgage loans. The first-lien mortgage loans are generally sold into the secondary mortgage market or to Corporate Investments in the All Other segment while retaining servicing and the customer relationship. Second-lien mortgages are retained on the segment s balance sheet. The segment services mortgage loans include those it owns, loans owned by other segments, and loans owned by outside investors.

    Global Banking segment, which includes Global Corporate and Commercial Banking, as well as Investment Banking, offers a diversified range of lending-related products and services, integrated working capital management and treasury solutions to clients through the network of offices and client relationship teams along with various product partners. Lending products and services include commercial loans and commitment facilities, real estate lending, asset-based lending and indirect consumer loans.

    Global Markets segment offers sales and trading services, including research, to institutional clients across fixed-income, credit, currency, commodity and equity businesses. The segment provides market-making, financing, securities clearing, settlement and custody services globally to the institutional investor clients in support of their investing and trading activities. It also works with commercial and corporate clients to provide risk management products using interest rate, equity, credit, currency and commodity derivatives, foreign exchange, fixed-income and mortgage-related products.

    The Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) segment offers investment and brokerage services, estate management, financial planning services, fiduciary management, credit and banking expertise, as well as diversified asset management products to institutional clients as well as to affluent and high net-worth individuals. GWIM also includes the results of Bank of America Global Capital Management, which is the cash and liquidity asset management business that Bank of America retained, following the sale of Columbia Management s long-term asset management business and the economic ownership interest related to the company s investment in BlackRock Inc.

    The All Other segment consists of two broad groups, Equity Investments and Other. Equity Investments includes Global Principal Investments, strategic and other investments. Other includes liquidating businesses, merger and restructuring charges, ALM functions and related activities, and the impact of certain allocation methodologies. Other also includes certain residential mortgage and discontinued real estate products that are managed by Legacy Assets and Servicing within Consumer Real Estate Services.

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    Full Year 2011 Revenues (Business Segments)

    All Other15%

    Global Commercial

    Banking11%

    Consumer Real Estate

    Services 1%

    Card Services18%

    Deposits13%

    GWIM18%

    Global Banking &

    Markets24%

    Note: We will be updating the pie-chart once the company files its 10-K with updated segment details.

    Among the major mergers, Bank of America acquired Merrill Lynch & Co Inc. in 2009, Countrywide Financial Corporation in 2008, and all the outstanding shares of ABN AMRO North America Holding Company in 2007.

    Bank of America operates in 50 states, the District of Columbia and in more than 40 countries. It has approximately 5,540 retail banking centers, about 16,253 automated teller machines (ATMs), nationwide call centers as well as online and mobile banking platforms.

    REASONS TO BUY

    Management remains focused on managing capital levels efficiently. The company has been relentlessly trying to realign its balance sheet in accordance with the regulatory changes post the meltdown to remain afloat. In fact, over the last two years, Bank of America has completed the divestiture/closure of more than 20 non-core assets to strengthen its capital position in order to meet the new international capital standards (Basel III), focus on corporate borrowers and U.S. retail clients as well as strengthen its investment banking. In 2011, the company generated $34 billion in proceeds from the sale of non-core assets and businesses, generating 79 basis points (bps) of Tier 1 common equity and lowering risk weighted assets (RWAs) by $29 billion.

    Bank of America cleared the stress test in March 2012. This shows that the company s efforts to streamline its balance sheet are bearing fruit. Currently, Bank of America pays $0.01 per share as quarterly dividend and does not have any share repurchase program. Now, we anticipate that the company would aspire for dividend hike and share repurchase next year, when the company will submit its capital plan for the next round of stress test.

    Though Bank of America went through a challenging period due to the overall market turmoil and its huge exposure to the risky segment of the market, it managed to return to profitability in 2010. Improving capital market activity, lower credit costs, reduction in long-term debt and the sale of non-core assets primarily helped the company recover. Despite the overall sluggish economic

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    environment, the company s total deposits grew nearly 2% from the prior year to $1.03 trillion in 2011. Therefore, it is poised to grow significantly in an improving economy.

    In April 2011, Bank of America launched a company-wide efficiency initiative

    Project New BAC

    with a goal to improve earnings by lowering expenses, increasing revenue, strengthening risk control and making changes to allow better execution and customer service, while returning more value to shareholders. Implementation of Phase 1 of the program began in October 2011 with a goal of reducing expenses by approximately $5 billion per year by 2014. The company expects to achieve more than 20% of the targeted $5 billion in savings from Project New BAC this year. Moreover, with the completion of Phase 2 evaluations, the company expects a total of $8 billion in annualized cost savings by mid-2015 from the total initiative. Overall, the company is making every effort to keep itself afloat.

    Bank of America has taken advantage of it being a large enterprise to add new products to its retail channel. Also, with strong underlying fundamentals, the company continued to post solid results in investment banking. Moreover, the company continues to align its banking center network according to the customers needs. In order to do this, the company is planning to close approximately 750 branches over the next couple of years. Management will consider branch sales in markets where growth potential does not meet its criteria, while it will continue to expand in markets with revenue growth opportunities.

    As a significant capital market player, Bank of America could benefit from the material growth of the global capital markets. Its strong consumer and commercial banking franchise, significant credit card operations and growing asset management business are also set to benefit from the cyclical recovery in the U.S. economy. Management s preference for organic growth over acquisitions will be beneficial with respect to cost and execution risk, over the long term.

    We are impressed with the faster-than-expected improvement in credit quality of the company. With improving economic conditions, credit metrics are expected to improve in the upcoming quarters, albeit at a slower pace. Also, underwriting changes made by the company across all its products will continue to help improvement in delinquencies.

    REASONS TO SELL

    We remain concerned about Bank of America s elevated cost structure. Though operating expenses started declining in the recent quarters due to the implementation of the expense reduction initiatives, we believe that the company is in the process of addressing legacy issues and continues to invest in its franchise. Consequently, expenses will remain high in the near term. In June 2012, Moody s Investor Services downgraded the company s ratings by a notch on the back of an overall weak economic environment. The ratings downgrade is expected to increase the already high funding cost of the company.

    The purchase of Countrywide Financial brought new troubles for Bank of America. The company bought the mortgage lender for $2.5 billion in 2008, and has recorded more than $30 billion in losses from bad loans, mortgage-backed securities claims and lawsuits. The company is still facing numerous litigations related to Countrywide and this will likely have a material impact on its financial stability going forward.

    We are also concerned about its deposit re-pricing pressure, lower loan levels and pressure from derivative positions, which are dragging down its net interest income (NII). Though liability management initiatives will lead to interest expense savings of nearly $50 million in the fourth quarter of 2012 and $300 million in 2013, the company anticipates NII growth to remain somewhat

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    muted, given the low interest rate environment, sluggish economic recovery and further reductions in long-term debt.

    Stressed run-off portfolio and lower hedge income as a result of the new financial reform law will continue to be a drag on the net interest yield. Further, we expect low interest rate environment to keep interest yield under pressure over the next several quarters. In 2011, net interest yield declined 30 bps from the year-ago period to 2.48%.

    Bank of America has significant direct and indirect exposure to Europe. As of September 30, 2012, total exposure to Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain (GIIPS), excluding net credit default protection, was $11.5 billion. Though the company continues to prudently manage its exposures in Europe, there will be a significant impact on the company s financials if the crisis extends further.

    The financial reform law is expected to have a lingering effect on Bank of America s profitability by resulting in higher costs, fee reductions and restrictions. Additionally, in November 2012, the Financial Stability Board indicated that the company would be required to hold an additional 1.5% of Tier 1 common equity as a Globally Systemically Important Financial Institution (G-SIFI) under the Basel Committee s methodology. In the mid term, stricter capital requirement is expected to reduce the company s flexibility with respect to its business investments to some extent.

    RECENT NEWS

    BofA Reports Break-Even, Rev Down

    October 17, 2012

    Bank of America reported break-even earnings per share for the third quarter, substantially better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.07.

    Results for the reported quarter were aided by a substantial slowdown in provision for credit losses and almost stable non-interest expense. The quarter witnessed improvement in credit quality across most major portfolios. Also, strong mortgage banking and good investment banking performances were among the high points of the quarter. On the flip side were lower net interest income and non-interest income.

    As previously announced by the company, results for the quarter were negatively impacted by certain special items

    debit valuation adjustments (DVA) and fair value option (FVO) of $1.9 billion, litigation expense of $1.6 billion and a charge related to a reduction in the U.K. corporate tax rate $0.8 billion. These three items had a $0.28 per share negative impact on earnings. Otherwise, Bank of America would have earned $0.28 per share during the quarter.

    The company made significant progress in strengthening its balance sheet during the quarter, reflected by improved capital ratios. Strong time-to-required funding and reduced long-term debt were also among the positives.

    Quarter in Detail

    Fully taxable-equivalent revenue (net of interest expense) was $20.7 billion, down 28% from $28.7 billion in the prior-year quarter. Revenue also missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.6 billion.

    Net interest income on a fully taxable-equivalent basis was $10.2 billion, down 5% from $10.7 billion in the year-ago quarter. Reductions in consumer loan balances were largely responsible for the downfall, which was partially offset by a reduction in long-term debt balance and lower rates paid on deposits. Net interest yield remained flat compared with the year-ago quarter at 2.32%.

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    Non-interest income came in at $10.5 billion, down 42% from $18.0 billion in the prior-year quarter, primarily due to negative DVA and FVO adjustments and lower equity investment income. Non-interest expense was $17.5 billion, almost flat compared with $17.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. An increase in other general operating expense related to Merrill Lynch class action settlement was offset by a decrease in personnel expense.

    Book value per share as of September 30, 2012 was $20.40, compared with $20.16 as of June 30, 2012, and $20.80 as of September 30, 2011. Tangible book value per share as of September 30, 2012 was $13.48, compared with $13.22 at the end of the prior quarter as well as the prior-year quarter.

    Credit Quality

    With the gradual recovery of the economy, credit quality continued to improve during the quarter with net charge-offs declining across almost all major portfolios from the prior-year quarter. Provision for credit losses decreased 48% year over year to $1.8 billion.

    As of September 30, 2012, nonperforming loans, leases and foreclosed properties ratio was 2.77%, down 38 basis points (bps) from the prior-year period. Net charge-off ratio decreased 31 bps year over year to 1.86%.

    Capital Ratios

    At the end of the reported quarter, the company s Tier 1 common capital ratio (Basel 1) was 11.41% compared with 11.24% at the end of the prior quarter and 8.65% at the end of the prior-year quarter. Tangible common equity ratio was 6.95% compared with 6.83% at the end of the prior quarter and 6.25% at the end of the prior-year quarter. As of September 30, 2012, the Tier 1 common capital ratio under Basel 3 was estimated at 8.97%, up from 7.95% as of June 30, 2012.

    BofA Resolves Yet Another Lawsuit

    September 28, 2012

    Bank of America announced the settlement of a class-action lawsuit that was filed by its shareholders related to the acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The company agreed to pay a total of $2.43 billion and organize various corporate governance changes.

    Bank of America bought Merrill for about $29 billion in January 2009 during the height of the financial crisis. However, the shareholders alleged that the company and the senior executives deceptively misrepresented the facts by providing materially misleading statements about the benefits from the deal. This led the majority of shareholders to approve the acquisition in December 2008. Without either accepting or denying any charges, Bank of America stated that it had decided to settle the lawsuit to remove the ambiguity and expenses related to the litigation. Further, the proposed settlement is still subject to review by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Under the terms of the settlement, Bank of America is required to ratify or modify its corporate governance practices by January 1, 2015 that will include clear policies related to any bonus or extra compensation that could impact the acquisition price. Apart from this, other conditions include detailed disclosures related to non-compliance of ownership guidelines, matters related to voting in director elections and conducting say-on-pay vote on an annual basis.

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    Dividend Update

    On October 24, the Board of Directors of Bank of America declared a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid on December 28 to shareholders of record as of December 7.

    VALUATION

    Bank of America currently trades at 23.9x the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2012, which is significantly above the 11.6x for the industry average. The valuation on a price-to-book basis looks attractive, as the shares trade at 0.5x, which is a 50% discount to the industry average of 1.0x. The company has a trailing 12-month ROE of 3.9%, compared with the industry average of 9.5%.

    Our six-month target price of $10.50 per share equates to about 25.6x the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2012. Combined with an annual dividend of $0.04 per share, the price target implies an expected total return of 7.4% over that period, which is consistent with our long-term Neutral recommendation on the shares.

    Also, Bank of America currently retains a Zacks #3 Rank, indicating no clear directional pressure on the shares over the near term.

    Key Indicators

    P/E F1

    P/E F2

    Est. 5-Yr

    EPS Gr% P/CF

    (TTM) P/E

    (TTM)

    P/E 5-Yr

    High (TTM)

    P/E 5-Yr Low

    (TTM) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) 23.9 9.9 6.0 20.4 15.6 112.8 6.0

    Industry Average 11.6 10.2 9.2 10.0 11.3 47.6 7.9 S&P 500 14.0 13.0 10.7 12.1 14.4 27.7 12.0

    JPMorgan Chase & Company (JPM) 8.2 7.8 6.8 6.5 8.7 111.4 6.4 Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) 9.9 9.1 10.1 9.6 10.4 35.5 8.9

    TTM is trailing 12 months; F1 is 2012 and F2 is 2013, CF is operating cash flow

    P/B Last Qtr.

    P/B 5-Yr High

    P/B 5-Yr Low

    ROE (TTM)

    D/E Last Qtr.

    Div Yield Last Qtr.

    EV/EBITDA (TTM)

    Bank of America Corporation (BAC) 0.5 1.4 0.1 3.9 1.3 0.4 -7.0

    Industry Average 1.0 1.0 1.0 9.5 0.8 2.2 -0.7 S&P 500 3.8 9.8 2.9 23.1

    2.2

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    Earnings Surprise and Estimate Revision History

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    StockResearchWiki.com The Online Stock Research Community

    Discover what other investors are saying about Bank of America Corporation (BAC) at StockResearchWiki.com:

    http://www.stockresearchwiki.com/tiki-index.php?page=BAC/Ticker

    DISCLOSURES & DEFINITIONS

    The analysts contributing to this report do not hold any shares of BAC. The EPS and revenue forecasts are the Zacks Consensus estimates. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts personal views as to the subject securities and issuers. Zacks certifies that no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. This report is not to be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Zacks or its officers, employees or customers may have a position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Zacks uses the following rating system for the securities it covers. Outperform- Zacks expects that the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next six to twelve months. Neutral- Zacks expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next six to twelve months. Underperform- Zacks expects the company will under perform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next six to twelve months. The current distribution of Zacks Ratings is as follows on the 1014 companies covered: Outperform - 14.2%, Neutral - 78.4%, Underperform

    6.9%. Data is as of midnight on the business day immediately prior to this publication.

    Our recommendation for each stock is closely linked to the Zacks Rank, which results from a proprietary quantitative model using trends in earnings estimate revisions. This model is proven most effective for judging the timeliness of a stock over the next 1 to 3 months. The model assigns each stock a rank from 1 through 5. Zacks Rank 1 = Strong Buy. Zacks Rank 2 = Buy. Zacks Rank 3 = Hold. Zacks Rank 4 = Sell. Zacks Rank 5 = Strong Sell. We also provide a Zacks Industry Rank for each company which provides an idea of the near-term attractiveness of a company s industry group. We have 264 industry groups in total. Thus, the Zacks Industry Rank is a number between 1 and 264. In terms of investment attractiveness, the higher the rank the better. Historically, the top half of the industries has outperformed the general market. In determining Risk Level, we rely on a proprietary quantitative model that divides the entire universe of stocks into five groups, based on each stock s historical price volatility. The first group has stocks with the lowest values and are deemed Low Risk, while the 5th group has the highest values and are designated High Risk. Designations of Below-Average Risk, Average Risk, and Above-Average Risk correspond to the second, third, and fourth groups of stocks, respectively.

    Coverage Team 11A QCA Kalyan Nandy Lead Analyst Kalyan Nandy Analyst Swayta D. Shah Copy Editor Sreela Bose Content Ed. Kalyan Nandy