B0P Adjustment Approaches

download B0P Adjustment Approaches

of 19

Transcript of B0P Adjustment Approaches

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    1/19

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    2/19

    ` To achieve adjustment in BOP

    following policy instruments areneeded:

    1. Expenditure Changing or Demand

    Policies;

    2. Expenditure Switching Policies;

    3. Direct Controls; (Exchange Controls)

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    3/19

    ` Expenditure Changing Polices refers to both the

    Fiscal and Monetary Polices.

    ` Fiscal Policy

    ` It refers to change in

    Government Expenditure;

    Taxes;Both;

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    4/19

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    5/19

    Monetary Policy

    ` It controls the nations money supply by

    affecting domestic interest rate.

    Expansionary Monetary Policy

    ` If interest rate falls, which induces an

    increase in the level of investment andincome in the nation through the multiplierprocess and increase money supply thatleads imports to rise.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    6/19

    ` Contractionary Monetary Policy

    ` On the other hand, contractionary monetary

    policy refers to a reduction in the nationsmoney supply and rise in interest rate.

    `

    Rise in interest rate discourages investment,income, and imports.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    7/19

    ` This policy mainly works by changingrelative prices of imports and exports for

    which

    ` A change in exchange rates is required.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    8/19

    ` Devaluation refers to the lowering of the

    value of a home currency in respect of theprice of gold/respective foreign currency.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    9/19

    ` The immediate effect of devaluation is a change

    in relative price.

    If a country devalues its currency, say, 25%

    Ceteris paribus its import price will rise by25% in terms of home currency. Resultantly,import bill will tend to fall.

    A rise in import prices often provides protectionto home industries and thus import substitutiontakes place.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    10/19

    ` There are two approaches for effectiveness of

    devaluation:

    1. The Elastic Approach :` The extent by which devaluation can make

    improvement in the Balance of Payment deficit of a

    country depends upon:

    ` The countrys Price elasticity of demand for imports

    ` The Price elasticity of foreign demand for its

    exports.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    11/19

    If price elasticity for exports of devaluing country is

    EpX > 1 (more Elastic)

    BOP deficit will reduce and vice-a-versa.

    On the other hand, if price elasticity for imports of

    devaluing country is-

    EpM > 1 (more elastic)

    It has positive impact, BOP deficit will reduce.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    12/19

    ` This theory states that-

    ` Devaluation leads to increase in the price of

    imports which will affect the volume of imports.

    ` But to what extend it will decrease as a result of

    devaluation it will very much depend upon

    countrys elasticity of demand for imports.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    13/19

    ` The elasticity of demand for imports of necessitieslike, capital equipment and petroleum is low in the

    country, country would find it difficult to reduce itsimports in response of devaluation.

    ` On the other hand when elasticity of demand for exports is high, it has positive impact on BOP.

    ` Developed countries are fall in this category. Theless developed countries exporting agriculture,minerals and selected consumer goods generallycannot take advantage of devaluation as the

    elasticity of demand for these exports is often low.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    14/19

    Limitation` Elastic approach and Marshall-Lerner condition

    for external balance has some limitations, suchas,

    Partial Equilibrium Approach

    ` Elastic and Marshall-Lerner is based onunrealistic assumption as stability of domesticprice.

    Neglect ofIncome distribution ` Devaluation results in reallocation of productive

    resources from other sector to export sector andthe import substitution sector, which leads

    redistribution of income.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    15/19

    Off-setting effect of Inflation-

    ` Devaluation causes an expansion in exports andreduction in imports due to decline in the relativeprice in the devaluing country compare with foreigncountry.

    ` On the other hand the higher import price may pushthe domestic cost structure in devaluing country.

    ` The expansion of exports-incomes in devaluing

    country. Consequently, increase demand for productdue to the higher income may push up theinflationary pressure.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    16/19

    ` Because of above mentioned Limitation, Sidney

    S. Alexander has developed an another approach for effectiveness of devaluation.

    ` As per

    Alexander, devaluation can only besuccessful in correcting disequilibrium of BOP

    when a country has sufficient exportable

    surplus, because fall in price of exportable

    commodities due to devaluation leadsincreasing demand.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    17/19

    2. Absorption Approach

    ` As per this approach trade balance is the

    difference between goods and services

    produced in a country and its absorption.

    ` Absorption means the sum of

    consumption and investment expenditure

    on domestically produced goods andservices.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    18/19

    ` Algebraically

    B = Y-A

    B = Trade Balance , Y = National income or value

    of output of goods and services

    A = Absorption or sum of consumption and

    investment expenditure.

    ` As perAbsorption approach, if expenditure

    or absorption is less than national product, it willhave positive trade balance or exportable surplus.

  • 8/6/2019 B0P Adjustment Approaches

    19/19

    ` Precisely, as per absorption Approach-

    ` e = b+a (marginal propensity to absorb)

    ` b marginal propensity to consume,

    ` a - marginal propensity to invest,

    1. e < 1 = Trade deficit reduce

    2. e > 1 = Trade deficit increase

    3. e = 1 Neither trade deficit or

    surplus.