8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

1/21

mailto:arogers@ecs.umass.edu

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

2/21

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

3/21

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

4/21

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

5/21

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

StandardDeviation,m/s

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Measured Standard Deviation of Mean Wind Speed

8 Direction Sectors1 Direction Sector

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00Norm

alizedStandardDeviation,-

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Normalized standard deviation of mean wind speed

8 Direction Sectors1 Direction Sector

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

6/21

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

StandardDeviation,-

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

MCP Std. DeviationsNormalized by Value at 9000 hrs

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

7/21

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

Sta

ndardDeviation,-

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Measured Standard Deviation of Weibull K

8 Direction Segments1 Direction Segment

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

8/21

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

StandardDev

iation,-

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Standard Deviation of MCP Estimates of Weibull KNormalized by Weibull K

8 Dir. Sectors1 Dir. Sector

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

StandrdDevia

tion,m/s

8000600040002000

Length of Concurrent Data, hrs

Standard Deviation of MCP Estimatesof Long Term Wind Speed

Linear regression MCP modelRed Oak - Cedar data

From multiple calculations using dataEstimate using linear regression

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

9/21

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

StandrdDeviation,m/s

8000600040002000

Length of Concurrent Data, hrs

Standard Deviation of MCP Estimatesof Long Term Wind Speed

Calculated - original data

Calculated - randomized dataLinear regression - original dataLinear regression - randomized data

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

10/21

iY n

n

Y

Y

n

i

iYY

n

nY

n

n

m m

n

n

m

m m

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

11/21

Y

m

Y

Y

m

k

k

m n

YM

Yk

k

m

k

kMYY

mRMSE

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

12/21

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

RootMeanSquare

PredictionError,m/s

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, Hours

Root Mean Square Prediction Error51002-51004

2 Jknf. Subsets3 Jknf. Subsets4 Jknf. Subsets6 Jknf. Subsets8 Jknf. Subsets11 Jknf. Subsets16 Jknf. Subsets23 Jknf. Subsets32 Jknf. Subsets

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0RootMeanSquarePredictionE

rror,m/s

8000600040002000

Concurrent data length, hrs

2 Jknf. Subsets3 Jknf. Subsets4 Jknf. Subsets6 Jknf. Subsets8 Jknf. Subsets11 Jknf. Subsets16 Jknf. Subsets23 Jknf. Subsets32 Jknf. Subsets

Root Mean Square Prediction ErrorRed Oak - Cedar

10

8

6

4

2

0

NumberofJackknifeSubsets,-

8000600040002000

Concurrent data length, hrs

Final choice of Jackknife subsets

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

13/21

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Standar

dDeviation,m/s

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Measured and Estimated Standard Deviation of Mean

Measured - 8 Dir. SectorsJackknife - 8 Dir. Sectors

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

14/21

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

RMSErro

r,m/s

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

RMS Error of Jackknife Estimate of Mean Wind Speed

8 Dir. Sectors1 Dir. Sector

4

3

2

1

0

Ratio,--

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Ratio of Measured to Estimated Standard Deviationof Mean Wind Speed

8 Dir. Sectors1 Dir. Sector

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

15/21

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

16/21

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

Standard

Deviation,-

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Measured and Estimated Standard Deviation of Weibull K

MeasuredJackknife

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

17/21

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

RMSErr

or,-

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

RMS Error of Predicted Weibull K

8 Dir. Sectors1 Dir. Sector

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Ratio,

--

8000600040002000

Concurrent Data Length, hours

Ratio of Measured to Estimated Standard Deviationof Weibull K

8 Dir. Sectors1 Dir. Sector

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

18/21

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

19/21

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

20/21

8/3/2019 AWEA05_MCP

21/21