Disasters related to meteorological andhydrological hazards often cause significant loss of life,and set back economic and social development.Between 1980 and 2005, nearly 7500 natural disastersworldwide took the lives of over 2 million people andproduced economic losses estimated at over 1.2trillion US dollars.

In 2003, the World Meteorological Organization(WMO) established a cross-cutting programme forNational Disaster Risk Reduction for improving safetyand well being of communities. Recognizing the roleof the aviation meteorological community incontributing towards disaster risk reduction, theCommission for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)established in 2006 a regional Pilot Project onAviation-weather Disaster Risk Reduction (ADRR)under the lead of the Hong Kong Observatory.

Under the project, products beyond the currentrequirements of the International Civil AviationOrganization (ICAO), with particular focus on tropicalcyclone and enhanced meteorological services for awider terminal area, were developed and providedunder the ADRR website (http://adrr.caem.wmo.int).

Aviation-weather Disaster Risk Reduction (ADRR)

In line with the current effort being undertakenby WMO in close collaboration with ICAO to provideenhanced meteorological services for the widerterminal area under the Meteorological Service in theTerminal Area (MSTA) initiative, new value-addedproducts using the Hong Kong International Airport(HKIA) as an example have been developed.

This project serves to demonstrate to aviationstakeholders (including airlines, pilots, air trafficmanagement, airport authority, search and rescueunits) the benefits of such information in the planningof airport operations and collaboration decisionmaking (CDM) with common situational awareness,thereby enhancing aviation safety.

This booklet aims at providing the user withbasic information on the products available under thisADRR website. The methodology and generalprinciples to generate the forecast products are madeavailable on the website to facilitate the developmentof similar products by other aeronauticalmeteorological service providers (AEMSP).

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track

Official tropical cyclone forecasts and numericalweather prediction products from China; Hong Kong,China; India; Japan; and the Philippines, as well asadvisories and forecasts issued by the TropicalCyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) New Delhi and Tokyo,Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the USA,European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts (ECMWF) are consolidated and displayed onthe ADRR website. The forecast track and intensityforecasts up to 48 hours and beyond are useful forplanning of flight diversions or cancellation by the airtraffic management authorities and airlines.

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Strike Probability Map

The tropical cyclone (TC) strike probabilitymap is generated based on numerical model outputselectable from the China MeteorologicalAdministration (CMA) and ECMWF EnsemblePrediction System (EPS). The probability indicatesthe chance, from the automatic model outputs, thata TC will pass within a 120 km radius from a locationat anytime during the next 120 hours. The wider thespread of strike probability, the larger theuncertainty of the forecast.

Real-time SIGMET Monitoring

The Real-time SIGMET Monitoring pagedeveloped in collaboration with ICAO provides real-time information on valid SIGMET, including SIGMETfor volcanic ash, tropical cyclones and other weatherphenomena, as well as Advisories to indicate thoseregions affected by significant weather. The pageserves to provide a full picture of the regionsaffected by severe weather at a glance.

Severe Weather Information

Location Specific Products

Neighbouring Aerodromes of HKIA

To support tactical decision in case of flightdiversion due to inclement weather, METAR / SPECI /TAF for destination alternate aerodromes andsignificant weather for neighouring aerodromes areavailable in graphical and symbolic presentation tofacilitate easy viewing.

Significant Convection Monitoring and Forecast

The chance of significant convection over keyair traffic control areas such as the holding areas forarrival flights over Hong Kong Flight InformationRegion (HKFIR) is delineated by three levels, viz. low,medium, high, respectively in green, yellow and redcolors. The 12-hour forecast is generated based onobjective guidance, including model outputs fromECMWF. To align with the forecaster’s assessmentbased on meteorological observations and analysisincluding radar and satellite observations, manualadjustment may be applied to the automaticallygenerated forecast for the first few hours of forecast.

Significant convection forecast for the next 12 hours

To support air traffic management of the terminalarea of HKIA, the Aviation Thunderstorm NowcastingSystem provides forecast of thunderstorms (pictorial andtabular form) in the next hour by extrapolating themovement of radar echoes using artificial intelligence.

The product provides users with information onthe location of inclement weather elements and helpsanticipate the impact on air traffic flow.

Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System

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HKIA Weather Summary

HKIA Weather Summary is a productpresenting the aviation forecaster's assessment ofthe latest weather situation at HKIA. This productsupplements the TAF by providing synoptic weatherbackground, other likely alternative scenarios and anoutlook up to 48 hours ahead.

Forecasts of other weather conditions that mayaffect aviation safety, such as windshear, crosswindand turbulence which are not available in TAF, will beincluded as necessary (see the highlights in the aboveexample). This information will be useful for theplanning of airport operations and large-scalediversions in inclement weather such as tropicalcyclone situations. Other weather products includingsignificant weather forecast chart, meteorologicalsatellite and weather radar imageries are also providedto facilitate assimilation of pertinent information bythe users.

Extended Hourly Take-off Forecast

Extended hourly take-off forecast of winds,temperatures, QNH and crosswind forecasts and anysignificant weather for the next 18 hours is providedto aid airline users’ flight planning. In particular,crosswind and headwind forecasts (which are notexplicitly mentioned in TAF) will be given andhighlighted if the thresholds, which have impact tooperations, are reached.

Probabilistic Forecasts

Based on ECMWF EPS, wind speed andcrosswind probabilistic forecasts for HKIA up to 36hours ahead are generated automatically using thewind forecast at the model grid point closest to HKIA.Probability forecast is useful in risk assessment forflight planning under tropical cyclone situation.

Aircraft Flight Data for HKIA

The high resolution wind and temperaturedata measured onboard the aircraft for the past 24hours are presented in the form of time-height plot.These high resolution data, obtained from CathayPacific Airways and the Hong Kong Government FlyingService aircraft, provides the users with informationon how the winds vary along the flight path(s). This isparticularly useful for flight operations during tropicalcyclone situations.

User Feedback

• With very positive feedback from users, the ADRRwebsite was officially launched on 18 April 2011.

• If you wish to access the ADRR website or givefeedback, please send an email to adrr@hko.gov.hk

• For more information on WMO Disaster RiskReduction Programme, please visit website at :

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/index_en.html

Published by the Hong Kong Observatory, Hong KongSpecial Administrative Region Government.Copyright reserved 2011. No part of this publicationmay be reproduced without the permission of theDirector of the Hong Kong Observatory.

DisclaimerThe Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region(including its servants and agents), and the World MeteorologicalOrganization make no warranty, statement or representation,express or implied, with respect to the accuracy, availability,completeness or usefulness of the information, contained herein,and in so far as permitted by law, shall not have any legal liabilityor responsibility (including liability for negligence) for any loss ordamage, which may result, whether directly or indirectly, fromthe supply or use of such information or in reliance thereon.