Avian Conservation Science Tools for

Strategic Forest Planning:

A New Multi-species Approach

to Evaluating Forest Condition

John D Alexander, PhD

Forest Service Research and Development Seminar Series:

Innovations in science and technology for

monitoring, assessment, and inventory efforts

April 29, 2014

Klamath Bird Observatory

(Alexander et al. 2004; KS Ecology Proceedings)

U.S.F.S.

Advancing bird and habitat conservation through

science, education, and partnerships.

Outline

• Challenges:

Science – Management Divide

Closing Adaptive Management Cycle

• Learning communities for ecosystem management:

Participatory Social Science

Strategy for Applied Science and Delivery

• Avian Conservation Science Tools:

Adaptive Management Applied – beyond NEPA

Examples: Northwest Forest Management

• Innovations:

Fine-scaled Modeling

Landscape Change

• Conclusions:

Meeting IM&A Objectives

J Stephens

CJ Ralph

B Bresson

N Seavy

B Altman

M Betts

S Veloz

S Shirley

K Halstead

G Geupel

M Pitkin

S Cuenca

D Clayton

S Stresser

A Marcus

T Will

V Sturtevant

M Scott

K Rosenberg

D Jongsomjit

N Elliot

L Salas

G Ballard

Z Yang

R Hutchinson

K McGarigal

J Rousseau

J Livaudais

Acknowledgements

Science-based Tools • Species assessment database

• Standard monitoring techniques

• Conservation plans

• Data-rich models

• Conservation design process

(Alexander 2011; NABCI 2011)

Context

Challenges

• Science and Management

Separate Traditions

Compartmentalized

Ineffective Science

Delivery & Application

• Community Learning

Collective Knowledge

Challenge Norms

Compartmentalized

Relevant Applied Science

& Tools

(Bliss1999; Smith 2000; Roux et al. 2006; Bormann et al. 2007; Scott et al. 2007; Graffy 2008; Hall & Fleishman 2010)

Participatory Action Research •Degree of community control

•Reciprocal production of knowledge

•Utility and action of outcomes

Engage agency community for better understanding and change

(McIntyre 2008; Wulfhorst et al. 2008,; Alexander 2011)

Challenges: Science Not Used

Culture - When to engage?

Consultants, Science-based NGOs,

Environmental Advocates

ORWACA Meeting – April 2005

Conservation Objectives Management Objectives

Monitoring & Research

•Relationships

•Early Collaboration

•Applied Science

•Delivery

(communications)

(Alexander 2011)

Science-based

NGOs

Bridging the Science-Management Divide

Avian Conservation Science Tools Applied

Adaptive Management

• Cost effective

• Engage leadership

• Consensus

Decision Support Tools

• Who is the audience?

• What is the question?

• What are the information gaps?

• Where are the transfer points?

(Alexander et al. 2009; Williams et. al. 2009; Stephens et al. 2011)

Catalyst for Adaptive Management

Avian Knowledge Network

(Iliff 2009)

Stewardship Responsibility/Opportunity (NEPA)

(Rich et al. 2004; USFWS 2008; NABCI 2011; Panjabi et al., 2012)

Quantitative Habitat and Population Objectives

Beyond NEPA

• Align with broad objectives of RMPs/LMPs

• Multiple species at multiple scales

Focal Species – Habitat Attributes

(Altman and Alexander 2012; Chase and Geupel 2005)

Conservation

Objectives

Chapparal and Oak woodland

Bewick's Wren

Bullock's Oriole

California Towhee

Lesser Goldfinch

Western Scrub-Jay

Western Wood-pewee

White-breasted Nuthatch

Broadleaf-conifer mix

Bushtit

Lazuli Bunting

Spotted Towhee

Black-headed Grosbeak

*Black-thr. Gray Warbler

Nashville Warbler

High volume conifer

Golden-crowned Kinglet

Townsend's Solitaire

*Brown Creeper

*Hermit Warbler

*Pacific-slope Flycatcher

*Winter Wren

Low volume conifer

Mountain Chickadee

Green-tailed Towhee

Conifer generalists

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Yellow-rumped Warbler

(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland

Bewick's Wren

Bullock's Oriole

California Towhee

Lesser Goldfinch

Western Scrub-Jay

Western Wood-pewee

White-breasted Nuthatch

Broadleaf-conifer mix

Bushtit

Lazuli Bunting

Spotted Towhee

Black-headed Grosbeak

*Black-thr. Gray Warbler

Nashville Warbler

High volume conifer

Golden-crowned Kinglet

Townsend's Solitaire

*Brown Creeper

*Hermit Warbler

*Pacific-slope Flycatcher

*Winter Wren

Low volume conifer

Mountain Chickadee

Green-tailed Towhee

Conifer generalists

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Yellow-rumped Warbler

(USDA 2008)

Ashland Forest Resiliency EIS

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland

Bewick's Wren

Bullock's Oriole

California Towhee

Lesser Goldfinch

Western Scrub-Jay

Western Wood-pewee

White-breasted Nuthatch

Broadleaf-conifer mix

Bushtit

Lazuli Bunting

Spotted Towhee

Black-headed Grosbeak

*Black-thr. Gray Warbler

Nashville Warbler

High volume conifer

Golden-crowned Kinglet

Townsend's Solitaire

*Brown Creeper

*Hermit Warbler

*Pacific-slope Flycatcher

*Winter Wren

Low volume conifer

Mountain Chickadee

Green-tailed Towhee

Conifer generalists

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Yellow-rumped Warbler

(USDA 2008)

Ashland Forest Resiliency EIS

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Climate-wise Sceince

Rufous Hummingbird

(Veloz et al. 2013)

(Veloz et al. 2013)

Bird Conservation Hotspots (Zonation)

Conifer

species

Grassland

species

Oak woodland

species

Riparian

species

(Veloz et al. 2013)

Forest Restoration Priorities

Forest Restoration Priorities

Focal Species Habitat Objectives

(Altman and Alexander 2012)

Focal Species Habitat Objectives

(Altman and Alexander 2012)

New Modeling Approach

• High-resolution Predictions

• Habitat Change Detection

• Informed by Habitat Relationships

Boosted Regression Tree Models

Average AUC - 40 species

0.87 (SD = 0.067)

0.71 to 0.99

Band 1 + 2 + 3 etc. = Presence/Absence

(Shirley et al. 2013)

Stacked Distribution Models

(Halstead 2013) Etc… N = 48 species

Predicted species richness

or habitat suitability

Chapparal and Oak woodland

Bewick's Wren

Bullock's Oriole

California Towhee

Lesser Goldfinch

Western Scrub-Jay

Western Wood-pewee

White-breasted Nuthatch

Broadleaf-conifer mix

Bushtit

Lazuli Bunting

Spotted Towhee

Black-headed Grosbeak

*Black-thr. Gray Warbler

Nashville Warbler

High volume conifer

Golden-crowned Kinglet

Townsend's Solitaire

*Brown Creeper

*Hermit Warbler

*Pacific-slope Flycatcher

*Winter Wren

Low volume conifer

Mountain Chickadee

Green-tailed Towhee

Conifer generalists

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Yellow-rumped Warbler

(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland

Bewick's Wren

Bullock's Oriole

California Towhee

Lesser Goldfinch

Western Scrub-Jay

Western Wood-pewee

White-breasted Nuthatch

Broadleaf-conifer mix

Bushtit

Lazuli Bunting

Spotted Towhee

Black-headed Grosbeak

*Black-thr. Gray Warbler

Nashville Warbler

High volume conifer

Golden-crowned Kinglet

Townsend's Solitaire

*Brown Creeper

*Hermit Warbler

*Pacific-slope Flycatcher

*Winter Wren

Low volume conifer

Mountain Chickadee

Green-tailed Towhee

Conifer generalists

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Yellow-rumped Warbler

(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

Chapparal and Oak woodland

Bewick's Wren

Bullock's Oriole

California Towhee

Lesser Goldfinch

Western Scrub-Jay

Western Wood-pewee

White-breasted Nuthatch

Broadleaf-conifer mix

Bushtit

Lazuli Bunting

Spotted Towhee

Black-headed Grosbeak

*Black-thr. Gray Warbler

Nashville Warbler

High volume conifer

Golden-crowned Kinglet

Townsend's Solitaire

*Brown Creeper

*Hermit Warbler

*Pacific-slope Flycatcher

*Winter Wren

Low volume conifer

Mountain Chickadee

Green-tailed Towhee

Conifer generalists

Red-breasted Nuthatch

Yellow-rumped Warbler

(Betts et al. 2010; Seavy and Alexander 2011; Altman and Alexander 2012)

Forest Management Habitat Models

* Oregon-Washington PIF Focal Species (Western Coniferous Forests)

IM&A System Objectives

Goal 1: Support effective decision-making by providing relevant and

credible information.

Objective 1: Priority management questions

Objective 2: Integration and scalability

Objective 3: Ensure relevant science.

Objective 4: Quality and consistency

Objective 5: Timely and accessible

Goal 2: Ensure that all activities are inclusive and comprehensive.

Objective 1: Understand partner and stakeholder interests and address

shared information needs

Objective 2: Address issues across boundaries

Goal 3: Ensure system is responsive and adaptive to change

Objective 1: Supports management and is responsive to change

Objective 2: Responsive and adaptive to changing agency capacity

Testimonial:

Barb Bresson

Service First:

US Forest Service Region 6

Oregon Washington BLM

Avian Conservation Program Coordinator

Questions / Discussion

John Alexander

jda@KlamathBird.org