Autonomous Vehicle Impacts on Traffic and

Transport PlanningAITPM Regional Seminar

11 May 2017

Discussion Paper

• Autonomous/Automated Vehicles (AVs)

– Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs)

• Increased safety/reduced accidents

– Over 90% of vehicle crashes cites human error as the cause

• Enhancement of travel experience

– Do other activities instead of focusing on the road

• Reduce parking requirements

• Re-allocate road space to other users

• Improved mobility for all

AVs/CAVs

Levels of Automation

• Short, medium and long term horizons

• Traffic and transport demand modelling – based on land use, planned road network, public transport infrastructure, parking, etc

• In the ACT (Canberra Strategic Transport Model):

– Land use: Population, Employment, Retail, School and Tertiary Enrolments

– Road capacity: derived from Austroads and Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)

– Generalised Cost of Travel: Cars, Public Transport

Transport Planning –Current Practice

• AV/CAV Forecasts: Level 4 available by 2025, 40-60% fleet penetration in the 2050s (conservative estimate)

• Mobility as a Service (MaaS)/Shared Autonomy

• Electric Vehicles

• Freight (autonomous trucks and truck platooning)

Future Transport Ecosystem

• ACT medium/long term plans: 2031/2041

• Travel demand forecasting and transport modelling vehicle technology and ‘driver’/traveller behaviour will be very different

• Update transport planning assumptions and model input parameters

• Minimal to no impact in the interim; possible reduction in the early stages

• Significant capacity improvements in the longer term

• Rate of change of improvement goes much faster at 85-100% CAV penetration

Road Capacity

*Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications critical for improved road efficiency (Tientrakool, et al, 2011)

Sensitivity Testing: Arterial Road Capacity

• Improves average speed of cars

• Rate of improvement slows down as capacity increases

• At 100% increase, average speed is improved by almost 8 km/h

10% CapAR increase 0.7 km/h increase

• Gradual decrease of VHT as capacity is increased

• Cost of Travel

– Cars: Fuel cost + VOC + in-vehicle time cost + parking cost (if applicable)

– PT: PT fare + walk/wait/transfer time costs + in-vehicle time cost

– Time cost = Value of Time (VOT)

• In the current CSTM:

– Future vehicles = today’s vehicles

– Fuel cost and VOC Petrol cars

– Parking cost: increases over time

– Public transport is generally the same transit modes as today

– VOT is assumed not to change in the future

Cost of Travel (Current)

• Significant proportion of Electric Vehicles (EVs)

– Fuel cost and VOC calculations need to be revisited

• Significantly reduced parking requirements

– Parking costs could be insignificant

• Potentially new forms of public transport (personal mobility service, shared autonomy)

– Calculation of ‘PT costs’ could be considerably different

• Opportunity to engage in other activities (e.g. work, videos, sleep) while travelling by car

– VOT in AVs would be lower than VOT in non-autonomous vehicles

Cost of Travel (with AVs/CAVs)

Sensitivity Testing:Value of Time (VOT) vs Speed

• Increase of car demand on roads, hence the average speed reduction

• Average speed at 50% VOT + 100% AR capacity >Average speed at current VOT and AR capacity

10% VOT decrease 1.4 km/h decrease

• Increased convenience and accessibility additional travel, more vehicles on roads

• New forms of car (or CAV) travel

– Car trips by people who cannot drive (e.g. children, PWD, the elderly)

– CAV-induced trips (i.e. trips that would not have been made by people who can drive if CAVs were not available)

– ‘Zero-occupant’ car trips

• Additional demand could offset the capacity benefits; V/C may not change

• Increase in Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) and Vehicle Hours Travelled (VHT) people not minding longer travel distances

Trip Making

Sensitivity Testing:Value of Time (VOT) vs Trip Length

• Reducing VOT increases average car trip lengths

• 50% VOT reduction 353 metres average trip length increase

• Reduced demand for car parks

• A single Shared Autonomous Vehicle (SAV) can replace 12 privately owned vehicles and eliminate 11 parking spaces (Fagnant and Kockelman, 2014)

• Planned car parks can be re-planned and existing car parks can be re-developed

• Parking charges no longer a concern

• Parking patterns will be altered

• Moving a parking space from the CBD to a suburban area could save around $US3,000 (Fagnant and Kockelman, 2014)

Parking

Suburbs

Suburbs Suburbs

Suburbs

CBD

Car Park

Public Transport

• Road capacity increase PT mode share reduction

• 100% capacity increase 0.8% PT mode share decrease

• Reducing VOT sharper decline in PT mode share

• 50% VOT reduction 2.3% PT mode share decrease

PT Impact ScenariosComplementary

PT Impact ScenariosCompeting

• Driverless technology is happening sooner than what most people think

– Significant fleet penetration by 2030s or 2040s

• Preliminary sensitivity tests indicate that small/simple changes in the model (based on possible impacts of CAVs) could result in considerably different forecasts from what they are now

– Worth conducting further investigations (e.g. traffic & transport modelling)

• Governments need to take this technology into consideration when developing long term urban and transport plans

– Review current practices and investigate ways to incorporate CAVs in the planning process

• NOW is the best time/opportunity to develop planning tools and processes in preparation for a very different future transport environment

Concluding Statements

• Transport planning and modelling processes: review and modify

• Road upgrade plans: review and possibly re-prioritise

• Public transport planning: future-proofing of long term plans

• Parking: revisit current plans and guidelines

• Integrated Transport Planning: nationally recognised set of guidelines that include AVs/CAVs

• Further modelling and simulation of autonomous vehicles: to better understand the extent of network benefits (or disbenefits)

• On-road trials in the ACT?

Recommendations for Future Discussions

We always overestimate the change that will occur in

the next two years and underestimate the change

that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be

lulled into inaction.

-- Bill Gates --