AUTM Startup Thesis

the Startup Thesis

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Evidence-based Entrepreneurship

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VP CS

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P

KA

KR

C$ R$

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Core Idea or Technology

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

? ✓

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Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

? ✓

Startup

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Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

? ✓

Startup

Customer Creation

Company

the scientific method applies to business


Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

? ✓?


Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

? ✓

Startup Thesis

a Startup Thesis describes

Who is your customer? What is your product?

Why will they buy?

examples

Idea: A video system to capture and evaluate the behavior of children with autism

Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?Startup Thesis

Idea: A video system to capture and evaluate the behavior of children with autism

Thesis: Physical therapists will make video recordings of autistic children in classrooms to improve therapy outcomes.


Physical therapists will make video recordings of autistic children in classrooms to improve therapy outcomes.


Idea: We developed a novel electrolyte that lowers the cost, size and toxicity of ultra capacitors for hybrid vehicles.


Idea: We developed a novel electrolyte that lowers the cost, size and toxicity of ultra capacitors for hybrid vehicles.

Thesis: Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will buy our ultra capacitors because they are safer and 15% lower in cost than current energy storage solutions.


Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will buy our ultra capacitors because they are safer and 15% lower in cost than current energy storage solutions.


Idea: Prepare thrombin from the patient’s own blood to create platelet gels used to accelerate wound healing, a safer alternative to bovine thrombin.


Idea: Prepare thrombin from the patient’s own blood to create platelet gels used to accelerate wound healing, a safer alternative to bovine thrombin.

thesis: Surgeons will select our wound treatment device to shorten wound healing time.


Surgeons will select our wound treatment device to shorten wound healing time.


Startup Thesis Format

T = CS will buy Product because VP

CS: customer segment (who is your customer)VP: value proposition (why they will buy)

Two income married couples will buy an automated expense tracking app because it improves their marriage

(CS) Two income married couples

will buy (Product) an automated expense tracking app

because (VP) it improves their marriage

CS: customer segment (who is your customer)VP: value proposition (why they will buy)

a gentle reminder

What is a hypothesis?

Hypotheses:

what must be true such that the thesis is true

Rules of Hypotheses:

– Statement of fact– Testable– Non obvious– Reversible– Not absurd (either way)

Proof by abduction:

if H1, H2, H3 … Hn then T

The Thesis is the best possible explanation of the hypotheses

please remember what Richard Feynman

said…

If it disagrees with experiment, it’s WRONG. … It doesn’t make any difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are who made the guess,… If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong.

walkthrough

Hypotheses

TIMC: two income married couplesAETA: automated expense tracking app


H1: TIMC have smart phones H2: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps H3: TIMC share a bank account H4: Money is one of the main sources of frustration for TIMC H5: Reducing one of the main sources of frustrations will improve a marriage H6: Understanding how money is spent will eliminate frustration over money H7: AETA will show clearly how money is spent

if TIMC have smart phones and TIMC regularly buy mobile apps and TIMC share a bank account and money is one of the main sources of frustration for TIMC and reducing one of the main sources of frustrations will improve a marriage and understanding how money is spent will eliminate frustration over money and AETA will show clearly how money is spent then two income married couples will buy an automated expense tracking app because it improves their marriage

Proof

another gentle reminder

What is the scientific method?

Hypothesis What must be true such that the thesis is true


PredictionWhat we expect to happen



ExperimentTest the prediction




Trigger: What is a passing mark for the experiment?




Trigger: What is a passing mark for the experiment?

Question Questions that can be asked to run the experiment

H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps


P: Half of all married people ages 25-50 will report they buy 5 apps or more per year



E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50




Trigger: 6 or more




Trigger: 6 or more

Q: tell me about what apps you use Q: how do you decide to add new apps Q: are some of the paid apps? Q: how often would you buy paid apps?

H: Money is one of the main sources of frustration for TIMC

P:

E:

Trigger:

Q: Q: Q:

Try it yourself!

write a prediction, experiment,

trigger and questions


P: Couples will say they argue over money


Trigger: 8 or more

Q: Q: Q:


P: Couples who argue over money will say they do it once or more per month

E: Interview 8 married people ages 25-50 who argue over money

Trigger: 6 or more say they argue monthly

Q: Q: Q:

Startup Thesis Ultimate Format

CS will buy Product because VP

Startup Thesis Evolution

CS will buy <initial Product> because VP

CS will buy SOMETHING because VPSOMEBODY will buy SOMETHING because VP

CS will buy ANYTHING(!) because VP•••

CS will buy <final Product> because VP


Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

? ✓

Startup Thesis

Does this really work?

the VentureLab Way

Customer Discovery

Customer Validation

? ✓

Customer Creation

Company Building

Startup Company

“Sorting Hat” Thesis Ideation

? T

Idea

product/market fit ✓startup thesis ✓

AUTM Startup Thesis

Small Business & Entrepreneurship

Transcript of AUTM Startup Thesis