AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for...

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AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology, Sydney (edited for release – post-conference)

Transcript of AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for...

Page 1: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote

Web Development:Fabrication or Orchestration?

David LoweDirector, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks

University of Technology, Sydney

(edited for release – post-conference)

Page 2: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 2

Software Engineering Wisdom

“Some Facts: Before software and computing systems can be developed, their

requirements must be reasonably well understood. Before requirements can be finalised the application domain, as it is,

must be fairly well understood”

‘Domain Engineering: A “Radical Innovation” for Softwareand Systems Engineering? A Biased Account’, Dines Bjorner

Page 3: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 3

Developer divergence of views

We interview the clients to determine requirements We interview intended users to determine requirements It is important to respond to changes in user requirements as they

occur Changes in the user requirements require the site or application to be

renegotiated. We often have difficulty in the relationship with clients We prefer a single client liaison It is important to identify technologies to use as soon as possible It is important to be able to modify the system once it is completed

Page 4: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 4

Web Development: Research vs Practice

“You can’t improve what you don’t understand / measure”– Is this still true in the Web domain?

– “the most important figures that one needs for management are unknown or unknowable but successful management must nevertheless take account of them.” Deming, Out of the Crisis

Do researchers understand development? Do developers understand what they are doing?

Page 5: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 5

Research on Web Development

Sample of 287 papers in the last 12 years on Web design models and methods.

WebEng workshops, ICWE, WWW WebEng track, JWE, IJWET, …

– Modelling: Information = 74– Operations: 41– Modelling: Architecture = 34– Testing, Verification and Validation = 31– Modelling: Functionality and Behaviour = 29– Requirements = 17– Quality = 14– Cost/Effort estimation = 11– Commercial practice = 8 !

Page 6: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 6

How much of this research is being used?

– Significant disjoint between research and

practice! WHY? • Are the models irrelevant?• Are the models too cumbersome?• Are the models not being communicated to

developers?• Are they ill-suited to the nature of the design

process?

Page 7: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 7

How much of this research is being used?

– Significant disjoint between research and

practice! WHY? • Are the models irrelevant?• Are the models too cumbersome?• Are the models not being communicated to

developers?• Are they ill-suited to the nature of the design

process?

The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work. [Johann Von Neumann]

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. [George Box]

Page 8: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 8

What questions should we be asking?

What then are the "hard" parts of the Web design process?– Understanding the users’ needs and intentions.– Blending content and functionality, engagement and control.– Orchestrating the interactions, rather than controlling them.– Creating an organic architecture which supports rapid evolution.– Making the interface “invisible”.– …

A picture is worth a thousand

words. An interface is worth

a thousand pictures. (Ben

Shneiderman)

[Interface design’s] highest ideal is to make a

computer so wonderful, so interesting, that

we never want to be without it. A less

travelled path [has a] highest ideal to

make a computer so imbedded, so fitting,

so natural, that we use it without thinking

about it. (Mark Weiser)

Page 9: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 9

Software Engineering Heresy

For Web projects, design and requirements can only be jointly resolved!

Web Engineering research seems to have missed this point! Developers have had to confront it – or sink!

DomainUnderstanding Requirements Design

Page 10: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 10

A short history lesson might be useful

Has this disjoint always existed? Or did we lose focus at some point?

Hegel was right when he said

that we learn from history

that man can never learn

anything from history.

(George Bernard Shaw)

We live in a moment of history

where change is so

speeded up that we begin

to see the present only

when it is already

disappearing. (R. D. Laing)

Page 11: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 11

1990 to 1995

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style The “Content” WebFocus on static

structured content

Amazon launched in 1995

Adoption Emergence / early adoptersDiscovering potential

Research Hypertext structuringHDM in 1992, RMM in

1994, OOHDM in 1994

Source: http://www.useit.com/alertbox/web-growth.html

Page 12: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 12

1990 to 1995

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style The “content” WebFocus on static

structured content

Amazon launched in 1995

Adoption Emergence / early adoptersDiscovering potential

Research Hypertext structuringHDM in 1992, RMM in

1994, OOHDM in 1994

Source: http://www.useit.com/alertbox/web-growth.html

Page 13: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 13

1995 to 2000

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style The “Functional” WebDynamic content + some

workflow

First online banking 1995, eBay 1995

Adoption Commercial use explodesFrom 20k to 10M

Research Hypertext + some functionality WAE in 1999, WebML in

1999

Page 14: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 14

1995 to 2000

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style The “functional” WebDynamic content + some

workflow

First online banking: Presidential savings, 1995

Adoption Commercial use explodesFrom 20k to 10M

Research Hypertext + some functionality WAE in 1999, WebML in

1999

Page 15: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 15

2000 to 2005

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style The “Social” Web (and Web 2.0)

Friendster 2002, FaceBook 2004

Flickr 2004, YouTube 2005

Adoption Mainstreaming commercial useFocus shifts to business

integration

Research Hypertext + some workflowDrawing in Software

Engineering lessons

Page 16: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 16

2000 to 2005

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style The “Social” Web (and Web 2.0)

Friendster 2002, FaceBook 2004

Flickr 2004, YouTube 2005

Adoption Mainstreaming commercial useFocus shifts to business

integration

Research Hypertext + some workflowDrawing in Software

Engineering lessons

Page 17: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 17

2005 to now

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style The “Mashed” WebRich intermixing of

applications

Digg 2004, Ajax 2005, Google Maps 2005, …

Adoption Increasing InterdependenceInter-business integration

Research Hypertext + ArchitectureWeb Services + QA + V&V +

Estimation + …

Page 18: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 18

Now to ….

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style ???

Adoption ???

Research ???EPIC 2015

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fUHtc37MC8

Page 19: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 19

Now to ….

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style ???

Adoption ???

Research ???

Information Functionality

Static / Passive

ParticipatoryParticipatory Functionality

Giving the user access to mashing functionality

- Intel Mash Makerhttp://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/20400/

- Microsoft PopFlyhttp://searchwindevelopment.techtarget.com/news/article/0,289142,sid8_gci1255579,00.html

- IBM Zerohttp://www.sdtimes.com/content/article.aspx?ArticleID=31713

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AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 20

Now to ….

1

10

100

1k

10k

100k

1M

10M

100M

1G

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Style ???

Adoption ???

Research ???

Information Functionality

Static / Passive

Participatory

Social-world(mediated, delayed, interpreted, artificial, …)

Physical-world(direct, immediate, raw, real, …)

Real-time sporting eventsLive Auctions

Monitoring (personal, environmental, home, …)

Control (personal, environment, home, …)

Page 21: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 21

Real-World, Real-Time

– Ability to monitor and manipulate things in real-time• Not just watch the world, discuss the world, but control the world?

– How far will this go?• Can I do anything at a distance that I currently do locally? • “Trying” an item I want to purchase? Can I start and then listen to a

car I might be bidding on?• Is my lawn too dry? Can I change the chlorine dosing in my pool?• Can I know my heart rate right now? Can you know my heart rate right

now?– How far are we from me being able to duck out of here this

afternoon, and remotely walk my kids home from school? – But you aint seen nothing yet!

• (guess what was TechCrunch product of the year?)

Page 22: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 22

Physical World: Examples

NY Exchange - http://senseable.mit.edu/nyte/nyte-globe-encounters.mov

Australian Open - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAQ28qp6X0Y

Earthmine - http://www.earthmine.com/products/

HackDiary - http://www.hackdiary.com/archives/000101.html

– See also• http://2007.xtech.org/public/schedule/detail/88• http://2007.xtech.org/public/schedule/detail/191• …

Page 23: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 23

Physical World: Example

Monitoring and watering my lawn….– Simple devices

• Wireless embedded Web server– http://www.lantronix.com/device-networking/embedded-device-servers/wiport.html

• Webcam…• Little bit of code…

– and…

Page 24: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 24

Page 25: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 25

So back to development…

Two key questions:– What should be the focus of commercial development?

• Will our current approaches continue to work?

– What should be the focus of research?• Shouldn’t we focus on what improves the end-result of the

development, rather than what we can model?

Cutting to the chase…– Why should these be any different!

Page 26: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 26

So back to development…

Returning to the evolution pathway…• Information --> Functionality

– Need to model what we can do with he Web! Hints of some of this in use-case modelling, but this is still quite limited?

• Static --> Participatory – Need to let go of control. Provide an environment for engagement. But

what engages?– Monitoring usage patterns and rapid adaptation becomes crucial – Does an architect design a house to not "change" at all? How do they

enable it to be “shaped” by its use? For every user to leave their mark?

• Surrogate-World --> Real-World – Need to identify the points of connection to the real-world! – What real-tasks (not Web tasks) might be supported?

Page 27: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 27

So back to development…

Result is a complex interdependency between systems, organisational processes, and the real world …

Key Issues:– Impact assessment– Co-evolution– Context awareness

Page 28: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 28

So back to development…

Result is a complex interdependency between systems, organisational processes, and the real world …

Key Issues:– Impact assessment– Co-evolution– Context awareness

Remember…. “[the] highest ideal is

to make a [web system] so

imbedded, so fitting, so natural,

that we use it without thinking

about it”

Page 29: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 29

Evolutionary orchestration

We have become too bound by our expectations of what can be achieved? Rather than what we want to achieve!

So… A web designer needs to:– Be a choreographer, not a technocrat– Be a facilitator, not a modeller– Be agile and responsive, not a proponent– Understand the technology, but see it only as a tool– Begin from the user outcomes, determine the needed interactions,

then try to make them invisible!

Page 30: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 30

OK – so I like (mis)quotes….

Ask not what the Web can do for you, but rather what you might want to do (with the Web)?

– We spend too much time thinking about the technology, and not the task

Computers make it easier to do a lot of things, but most of the things they make it easier to do don't need to be done. (Andy Rooney)

– What does need to be done? For a list of all the ways technology has failed to improve the quality of life,

please press three. (Alice Kahn)

Any science or technology which is sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic. (Arthur C. Clarke)

Any technology that is distinguishable from magic is not sufficiently advanced (Gregory Benford)

– Make your applications magic!

Page 31: AusWeb 2008 Keynote Web Development: Fabrication or Orchestration? David Lowe Director, Centre for Real-Time Information Networks University of Technology,

AusWeb 2008 Keynote, (C) David Lowe, UTS Slide 31

Thank You!