Austroads National Risk Assessment Model (ANRAM)acrs.org.au/files/arsrpe/Jurewicz_Audits.pdf ·...

Austroads

National Risk Assessment Model

(ANRAM)

Chris Jurewicz, ARRB

www.arrb.com.au Trusted advisor to road authorities for technical input and solutions

Overview

• Context

• What is ANRAM? How it is used?

• Severe crash risk estimation

• ANRAM Toolkit

• Next steps

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Context

• Diminishing blackspots

– Only a third of fatal crashes occur at blackspots

– Casualty crashes scattered on rural and LGA roads

– Blackspot treatments alone cannot reach strategy goals

• Emerging need for proactive approach

– Crash risk assessment since the late 1980s (e.g. RSAs)

– Austroads >10 year investment in research

– Confidence in identification of crash risk

• National Road Safety Strategy 2011-20, First Actions

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What is ANRAM?

Australian National Risk Assessment Model

– A consistent method for the whole country

– Based on Australian crash data, speeds & traffic

– For all jurisdictions, state and local government

– Fatal and serious injury crash focus, proactive & reactive.

• Outcome of a 4-year Austroads research project

• Collaboration with iRAP

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Uses of ANRAM

• Identify FSI crash risk across the road network

• Prioritise routes and road sections

• Target priority crash types, e.g. intersection

• Develop treatments and programs

• Measure progress towards Safe System infrastructure

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• Run-off-road

• Head-on

• Intersection

• Pedestrian

• Other

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Severe crash risk estimation


FSI crash risk analysis – ANRAM Toolkit



ANRAM FSI

Predicted FSI

Observed FSI


• Estimate FSI crash reductions from treatments

• Create road improvement treatment programs

• Estimate BCRs

• Section, route, network, state- and nation-wide programs

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• Trials by jurisdictions – feedback and refinement

• Nationwide implementation

• Incorporation into AusRAP/ViDA tools

• Funding programs based on risk assessment

• Direction of development to be coordinated by ANRAM

Steering Group and Technical Working Group

Next steps


Thank you

Chris Jurewicz

ARRB

[email protected]

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Strategic Approach

• NZ example

• Recognises roles of

different approaches, e.g.

big projects vs. mass

action treatment plans

• Importance of Safety

Maintenance and safety

gains through asset

management and

technology improvements

• ANRAM quantifies

benefits for all

approaches

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www.arrb.com.au Trusted advisor to road authorities for technical input and solutions 14

Crash

type

Run-off-road

Head-on

Intersection

Pedestrian

Other

SRS _________

Network

average

SRS

Observed

FSI

crashes

f(AADT, L) x Predicted

FSI

crashes

=

Road attributes

WF = EB

ANRAM

FSI

crashes

www.arrb.com.au Trusted advisor to road authorities for technical input and solutions 15

Severe crash risk prediction


The risk algorithm

Divided into crash types:

- Run-off-road

- Head-on

- Intersection

- Pedestrian

- Other

Star Rating Score (SRS)

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Operating speed

Lane w idth

Curvature

Quality of curve

Delineation

Shoulder rumble strips

SRS - Run-off LOC Driver-side Road condition

Grade

Skid resistance / grip

Roadside severity - driver-side offset

Roadside severity - driver-side feature

Paved shoulder w idth driver-side

External f low influence - AADT per lane

Run-off-road SRS Traversability - median traversability

Operating speed

Lane w idth

Curvature

Quality of curve

Delineation


SRS - Run-off LOC Passenger-side Road condition

Grade


Roadside severity - passenger-side offset

Roadside severity - passenger-side feature

Paved shoulder w idth passenger-side


Operating speed

Lane w idth

Curvature

Quality of curve

Delinaeation

SRS - Head-on LOC Centreline rumble strips

Road condition

Grade


Head-on severity - median type


Head-on SRS Traversability - median traversability

Operating speed

Grade


SRS - Head-on Overtaking Differential speed limits

Number of lanes


External f low influence - AADT per lane (opposing)

Operating speed

Intersection type

Intersection quality

Grade

Street lighting

SRS - Intersection Skid resistance / grip

Sight distance

Chanellisation - splitter and median islands

Speed management / traff ic calming

Intersection severity - intersection type

Intersection SRS External f low influence - intersecting road volume

Operating speed

Access points

SRS - Property Access Service road

Access point - severity

External f low influence - default f low

Pedestrian SRS Refer to the next f igure

Other SRS = (Intersection SRS + Head-on SRS) / 2

ANRAM SRS

Presence of user - along

Operating speed

Pedestrian along provision - driver-side

Curvature

Curve quality

Sight distance

Lane w idth

Delineation

Grade

Road condition


Parking (side friction) inc. footpath driver-side



Street lighting

Pedestrian along provision - driver-side (severity)

External f low influence - through vehicle f low per lane


Operating speed

Pedestrian along provision - passenger-side

Curvature

Curve quality

Sight distance

Lane w idth

Delineation

Grade

Road condition


Parking (side friction) inc. footpath passenger-side



Street lighting

Pedestrian along provision - passenger-side (severity)


Presence of user - crossing

Operating speed

Number of lanes

Median type

Pedestrian crossing facitlities - though road

Pedestrian crossing quality - through road

Intersection type


Pedestrian SRS SRS - Crossing through road Pedestrian fencing (inc crossing)


Street lighting

Sight distance

Parking (side friction)

Traff ic calming

Pedestrian crossing facitlities - though road (severity)



Operating speed

Number of lanes (side road)

Median type (side road)

Pedestrian crossing facitlities - side road

Pedestrian crossing quality - through road

Intersection type / access point

SRS - Crossing side road Intersection quality

Pedestrian fencing (inc. side road crossing)


Street lighting

Sight distance

Parking (side friction)

Traff ic calming

Pedestrian crossing facilities - side road (severity)

External f low influence - side road or access point vehicle f low per lane

SRS - Along

SRS - Along driver-side

SRS - Along passenger-side

Operating speed

Lane w idth

Curvature

Quality of curve

Delineation


SRS - Run-off LOC Driver-side Road condition

Grade


Roadside severity - driver-side offset

Roadside severity - driver-side feature

Paved shoulder w idth driver-side


Run-off-road SRS Traversability - median traversability

Operating speed

Lane w idth

Curvature

Quality of curve

Delineation


SRS - Run-off LOC Passenger-side Road condition

Grade


Roadside severity - passenger-side offset

Roadside severity - passenger-side feature

Paved shoulder w idth passenger-side


Operating speed

Lane w idth

Curvature

Quality of curve

Delinaeation

SRS - Head-on LOC Centreline rumble strips

Road condition

Grade




Head-on SRS Traversability - median traversability

Operating speed

Grade


SRS - Head-on Overtaking Differential speed limits

Number of lanes


External f low influence - AADT per lane (opposing)

Operating speed

Intersection type


Grade

Street lighting

SRS - Intersection Skid resistance / grip

Sight distance

Chanellisation - splitter and median islands


Intersection severity - intersection type

Intersection SRS External f low influence - intersecting road volume

Operating speed

Access points

SRS - Property Access Service road

Access point - severity

External f low influence - default f low

Pedestrian SRS Refer to the next f igure

Other SRS = (Intersection SRS + Head-on SRS) / 2

ANRAM SRS


ANRAM computational flow diagram Application of Safety Performance Functions

SRS Weighting Factor < 1

Mean Predicted FSI

High Predicted FSI

Low Predicted FSI

SRS Weighting Factor ~ 1

SRS Weighting Factor > 1

Mean FSI


Who should use ANRAM?

• Road safety policy analysts and managers

• Funders of road safety

• Infrastructure program managers

• Regional and local government engineers

• Auto clubs, e.g. RACV

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Austroads National Risk Assessment Model (ANRAM)acrs.org.au/files/arsrpe/Jurewicz_Audits.pdf ·...

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