1

Austria‘s emission projections

Stephan Poupa & Melanie Sporer, 10th Mai 2010

2

Outline

1. General System

2. Models and Methods

3. Results

4. Outlook

3

1. General System

NISA and EMIPRO reporting

Institutional arrangements

Scenario development

Policies and measures

Gen

era

l S

yste

m

4

Reporting (NISA and EMIPRO)

4

Submission under UNFCCC National Inventory

Report (NIR), Common Reporting Format (CRF) Tables, National

Communications

Submission under EC NECNFR Tables for NEC Gases and Report

Submission under EC GHG Monitoring Mechanism CRF

Tables/Short NIR, EMIPRO Report, PaMs & Projections Tables

Submission under UNECE/LTRAP Informative Inventory Report (IIR), Nomenclature for Reporting (NFR) Tables

National Reports to the parliament and for the

public

National System

Quality Management System

(including Good Practice)

Austrian Air Emission Inventory

Policies & Measures and Projections

UNFCCC + Kyoto

Protocol

Environmental Control Act

EC NEC Directive

EC GHG Monitoring Mechanism

UNECE/LRTAP + Protocols

Gen

era

l S

yste

m

-------------------

5

Institutional arrangements

Gen

era

l S

yste

m

BMLFUW: contracting body

WIFO: general macro-

economic data;industrial

production

TU Vienna: ERNSTL; input

renewables

Energieagentur: BALMOREL, LEAP

Umweltbundesamt: overall coordination, technical support, compilation, waste

projections, autoproducer, policies

and measures, …

TU Graz:GLOBEMI, GEORG

WIFO, Gumpen-

stein: PASMA

6

Scenario development

with measures - scenario (wm) and a with additional measures -scenario (wam) for GHG; wm -scenario for air pollutants

the underlying wm- forecast (activity data) takes into account climate change mitigation measures that were implemented under the Austrian Climate Strategies 2002 and 2007 before 8th August 2008

wam – forecast takes into account planned policies and measures with a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in time.

Gen

era

l S

yste

m

All additional measures have been defined at expert level in consultation with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW).

7

2. Models and Methods

Modeling framework and sectoral approach

Quality management

Uncertainty assessment

Key parameters

Mod

els

an

d M

eth

od

s

8

Modeling framework for emission projections

Energy Forecast

(national energy balance, macro-

economic model, 3 bottom up ,

models)

Transport Forecast (bottom-up

national transport

model GLOBEMI)

Agricultural Forecast

(PASMA model and expert

consultations)

Waste Forecast

(EAA and expert judgements)

Forecast Industrial Processes, Solvents, F-Gases(EAA,macro-

economic model)

Sectoral Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA)

National Emission Projections (Umweltbundesamt-EAA)

Mod

els

an

d m

eth

od

s

9

Quality management

Questionnaire has been used for checking input data for compliance with the most important data quality requirements

Several data consistency checks have been performed e.g. by documentation of data inputs and changes in the calculation files; fixed input form has been used for each sector

Often same person responsible for sectoral emission projections and Inventory; some sectors use emission methods based on the verified inventory methods

An output data check has been carried out by comparing the results of the sectors in detail and checking the plausibility of the emission trends

There are iterative feedback-loops between modeling teams, sectoral experts, and sectoral inventory experts in which scenarios, assumptions and policies and measures included in the forecasts are discussed

Mod

els

an

d m

eth

od

s

10

Key underlying assumptions

Mod

els

an

d m

eth

od

s

2010 2015 2020

GDP [bio€ 2000] 256.52 287.83 321.70

Population [1 000] 8 427 8 561 8 672

Stock of dwellings [1 000] 3 602 3 725 3 827

International coal prices [€/GJ]

6.59 7.36 7.44

International oil prices [€/GJ]

14.93 14.93 14.93

International gas prices [€/GJ]

9.62 9.62 9.62

average oil price of the energy model (WIFO): USD120 (USD/€ 1,37)

11

Uncertainty Assessment

Sensitivity assessments have been performed for specific

(sub-) sectors, analysing the increase and decrease of key factors or of a combination of key factors:

Energy sector: influence of the natural gas price, electricity demand and electricity imports on CO2 emissions of Energy Industries; influence of the oil

price on CO2 emissions from Manufacturing Industries and

Construction; changes of renovation rate and changes of boiler exchange rates on CO2 emissions from the Residential and

Commercial sector; influence of fuel price differences between Austria and neighbouring countries on CO2 emissions from Transport

Agricultural sector: changes of product prices

Mod

els

an

d m

eth

od

s

12

3. Results

Resu

lts

Sensitivity Analysis

Submission under EC NEC Directive

Submission under UNECE/ LRTAP Convention

13

Sensitivity analysis transport

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

20182020

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000Development CO2 Emissions

CO2 "WM"

CO2 "0"

CO2 "x2"

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

[1

00

0 t

]

Resu

lts

14

Sensitivity analysis residentials

Resu

lts

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 202010,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

Sensitivity Analysis 1.A.4WM-Sens_bio+20%

WM-Sens_boilexrate-1%

WM

WM-Sens_renrate-0.3%

WM-Sens_boilexrate+1%

WM-Sens_renrate+0.3%

WM-Sens_gas+30%

WM-Sens_foss+30%

Em

iss

ion

s [

Gg

CO

2 e

q]

15

EC NEC Directive

Resu

lts

1990 2000 2005 2007 2010

Pollutants Austrian Emission Inventory 2008[kt]

Projection Emissions

[kt]NOx 192.51 204.45 239.62 220.10 198.75SO2 74.34 31.64 27.19 25.60 25.80NMVOC 273.64 176.04 178.71 179.81 167.70NH3 71.18 69.25 66.11 66.41 61.45

Pollutants Emissions 2010 without ‘tank tourism’ [kt/a]

Ceilings 2010[kt/a]

NOX 146.20 103

SO2 25.75 39

NMVOC 164.31 159

NH3 61.31 66

16

UNECE/LTRAP Convention

Resu

lts

2010 2015 2020

Pollutants Austria's emission projection based on fuel sold [kt/a]

NOX 198.75 158.80 129.66SO2 25.80 24.53 23.63NMVOC 167.70 172.45 179.08NH3 61.45 61.13 61.01

2010 2015 2020

Pollutants Austria's emission projection based on fuel used [kt/a]

NOX 146.20 125.44 110.63SO2 25.75 24.48 23.57NMVOC 164.31 169.15 176.13NH3 61.31 61.04 60.93

17

4. Outlook

More flexibility in development of varied reduction scenarios

Assess synergies and trade offs between gases (AQ/CC) Update of energy projections 2030 Long term scenarios 2050 (maybe other approach e.g.

backcasting) Improved uncertainty assessment National Emission Projections System Austria (maybe

GAINS, Access,….)

Ou

tlook

18

Contact & Information

Stephan Poupa

stephan.poupa@umweltbundesamt.at

Melanie Sporer

melanie.sporer@umweltbundesamt.at

Umweltbundesamtwww.umweltbundesamt.at

Joint TFEIP/EIONET meetingLarnaca ■ 10th Mai