Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac APPEA 2005...

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Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac www.annimac.com.au APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry 11 April 2005 Perth W Australia Speaker Conference Plenary

Transcript of Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac APPEA 2005...

Page 1: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods

                         

                   

Annimacwww.annimac.com.au

APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition

Securing our Industry 11 April 2005 Perth W Australia

Speaker

Conference Plenary Conference Plenary

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Two most powerful industries :Two most powerful industries :

. Technology I C T . Technology I C T

. Energy Oil & gas . Energy Oil & gas

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Industry secure future ?Industry secure future ?

NoNo

Not the way it is Not the way it is

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What must change ? What must change ?

Can it change ? Can it change ?

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Rate of ChangeRate of Change

• every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site

• every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology

• every day : 15 million new web pages

• every 5 days : new product / service

Amount of change in one day

our Grandparents had in one year

Younger means faster

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Technology

e.g. by 2020

70 % types of jobs then

do not exist now because

80% technology not yet imagined

Driving all Drivers of ChangeDriving all Drivers of Change

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What’s pushing the industry :What’s pushing the industry :

. Political power shift . Political power shift

. Global economic shift . Global economic shift

. Global values shift . Global values shift

. O . O&&G Big Rollover G Big Rollover

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O & GO & G

Big Rollover :Big Rollover :

Supply > DemandSupply > Demand

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Three Wise MonkeysThree Wise Monkeys

• Oil Companies : Oil Companies : - hear no depletion - hear no depletion

• Governments & International Agencies :Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletion - see no depletion

• And all agree it would be best to :And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion - talk no depletion

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Page 12: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

Typical Oil Depletion Curve

Norway (North Sea)

Werner Zittel , LBST

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2004

www.SimmonsCo-Intl.com

Saudi Reserves Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons February 2004

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Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004Douglas - Westwood Ltd

Cambridge UK

Study : World oil forecast

beset with reserves shortfalls

2004

2016

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0

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1000

1500

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Pro

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1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

China

ASPO Newsletter 40 April 2004 www.PeakOil.netAssociation for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas

Oil discovery Oil production

Forecast ?

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0

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400

600

800

1000

1200

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

OGJ Reserves

2002 IHS Rpt

Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports

IHS and O&GJ Remaining Reserves

Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin

www.PeakOil.net

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Page 19: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played ?

" Do you wish to :

• Kill your careerKill your career

• Head the redundancy listHead the redundancy list

• Be blamed for starting the panic ?Be blamed for starting the panic ?""

Chris SkrebowskiChris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum Institute of Petroleum www.PeakOil.netwww.PeakOil.net

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Or is Big RolloverOr is Big Rollover : ( tick one ) : ( tick one )

a) Only part of humungous dilemmaa) Only part of humungous dilemma

b) Forcing too rapid changeb) Forcing too rapid change

c) Change to what ?c) Change to what ?

d) All too scaryd) All too scary

e) All of the above ore) All of the above or

f) Nonsensef) Nonsense

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Everyone agrees :Everyone agrees :

Change is inevitable .Change is inevitable .

Your choice :Your choice :

Understand forces of changeUnderstand forces of change

oror

Be victim of future.Be victim of future.

Page 22: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

What’s pushing the industry :What’s pushing the industry :

. Political power shift . Political power shift

. Global economic shift . Global economic shift

. Global values shift . Global values shift

. O . O&&G Big Rollover G Big Rollover

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Global Economic powerGlobal Economic power

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Economic domination 200 yrsEconomic domination 200 yrs

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to Western Pacific Rimto Western Pacific Rim

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Global Cultural powerGlobal Cultural power

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Christian domination 500 yrsChristian domination 500 yrs

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Estimated 2 billion people watched world mediaEstimated 2 billion people watched world media

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to Confucian / Islam influenceto Confucian / Islam influence

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Fastest robanoidFastest robanoid

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Chi master class with MIT engineersChi master class with MIT engineers

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Gap widening : Knowledge

• Haves / have nots

• Age generations

• Globally networked

Shifting Global ValuesShifting Global Values

Page 35: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

About Technology not wealth

• Access

• Skilling

50 % world popn : no phone

Gap : Haves - Have Nots Gap : Haves - Have Nots

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Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism• economic rationalists : profit• material values : tangibles• science as religion : rational

• Generation X 30 – 45 yrs• clones of Boomers : materialists or• copy younger : sustainability

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Four generations : Three worlds

• DotComs 15 - 30 yrs Sustainability

• global identity• co opitalism• relationships• holistic win - win – win

• Cluetrain Manifesto “ The marketplace is a conversation ” www.cluetrainmanifesto.com

Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

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Chinese Technology CentreChinese Technology Centre

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Gap : Age GenerationsGap : Age Generations

Four generations : Three worlds

• Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual

. no limits

. no boundaries

. parallel universes . quantum everything

. invent their world

. beyond our imagining

. Indigo children

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Page 41: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

Gap : Globally NetworkedGap : Globally Networked

• access all knowledge

• empowered

• confident

• passionately committed

• global view future

• one planet : one future

Page 42: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

Impact for Energy IndustryImpact for Energy Industry

• transiting two worlds - accelerating

• values shifting to sustainability

• Big Rollover value driven

• cooperation not competition

• young non negotiators

• relationships : consumers partners innovators

Page 43: Australia’s Energy Future Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Floods Annimac  APPEA 2005 Conference & Exhibition Securing our Industry.

Impact for Impact for AusAus Energy Industry Energy Industry industry leader - how to’s

global location - Asian partners

values shifting to sustainability

not changing fast enough

economic rationalist power

Big Rollover not on agenda

“ She’ll be right, mate.” Science.

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Thriving with change :Thriving with change :

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Thank youThank you www.annimac.com.au

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Very special note of appreciation to

Bruce Robinson

www.STCwa.org.au

for his impeccable knowledge

regarding global Oil Depletion and his

generosity in sharing it.

Thank you, Bruce.

annimac