Australian School of Business

Honours / MPhil in Actuarial Studies, 2014

Honours / MPhil Information Session

Dr Benjamin Avanzi Honours coordinator

New Oxford American Dictionary: entice |enˈtīs| verb [ with obj. ] attract or tempt by offering pleasure or advantage: a show that should entice a new audience into the theater | [ with obj. and infinitive ] : the whole purpose of bribes is to entice governments to act against the public interest. Thesaurus: tempt, lure, allure, attract, appeal to; invite, persuade, convince, beguile, coax, woo, court; seduce, lead on; informal sweet-talk

What is MPhil / Honours? Pleasure AND advantage! Pleasure: •  One more year at uni J •  Join the peer-supported team of research students •  Get to know academic staff personally and extensively •  Have fun with some topic of your choice •  Present at conferences + get published in international journals

Advantage: •  Acquire useful research skills •  Differentiate yourself on the job market •  Become an expert in one field •  Open up opportunities for higher degree study – PhD, overseas

AND HARD WORK! A good thesis is 10% of talent and 90% of work! Do I need to be a genius? Entry is very competitive (usually about a handful) •  Typically >80 WAM, historically around 85-90 •  Limited supervision availability •  Extensive application process

But what is doing research exactly? Developing something NEW: •  Work out something now one worked out before •  Then get it published CREATING KNOWLEDGE A new set of skills: •  Know how to look for answers in academic papers •  Read an academic paper in 10 minutes (vs 1 day + headache) •  Have a rigorous approach to developing a new model with desired

features •  Sharpen your critical sense •  Improve actively your communication skills (written + oral) •  Become an expert in one field •  Valued in the workplace (increasingly)

So what is the difference between Honours and MPhil?

Honours MPhil UG PG

(but relevant Bachelor enough for entry)

1 year (Mar-Nov) 1.5-2 years UG fees PG fees No particular resources Resources available Well known in AU market Better known overseas

Same entry requirements (standards) Same type of project, but a bit more time in MPhil

Both pathways to PhD, but Honours is the standard way Part II possible, but there are other

(perhaps more suited) options

What am I going to eat? Tutor / RA positions usually filled by research students Honours scholarships: ASB Scholarships, UNSW Honours Scholarships, APRA Brian Gray Scholarship, EJ Blackadder Scholarship, Ernst&Young Scholarship, ARC Grant scholarships, CEPAR Scholarships AND: free food at (almost weekly) seminars AND: free food and caffeine at weekly school morning tea J (AND: Haribo bears required / provided by some supervisors)

What am I going to do? Session 1: •  Become an expert in your field:

•  2-3 elective courses •  Read papers, a LOT of papers (and some more papers)

•  Work out what to do: •  1 compulsory course (research methods, to help you) •  Write a proposal (about 50-60 pages)

Session 2: •  Keep honing your expertise:

•  0-1 elective course (3 in total during the year) •  Actually do your research

•  Carry out the plan set out in the proposal •  Write your thesis (max 100 pages)

What do the supervisors do? Help you choose a topic Help you solve your problems Mentor you throughout the year Spend hours training and teaching you Expect you (in return) to take the task seriously (supply the Haribo bears for the meetings)

How am I going to be assessed? Honours mark is made of •  Research method course (12.5%) •  Elective courses (37.5%) •  Thesis (50%), assessed by two independent experts

The total mark in the Honours year determines the Honours grade: >=85 First class >=75 2nd class (Division 1) >=65 2nd class (Division 2) >=50 3rd Class >=90 Considered for University medal - need high overall grades throughout degree (normally around WAM of mid 90s)

Very successful previous research students

First class Honours and University Medals: Andrew Ngai (PwC), Samuel Wills (Oxford), Christian Sutherland-Wong (Harvard MBA), Arlene Wong (Reserve Bank –completing PhD overseas), Shaun Yow (BCG – scholarship for PhD overseas), Jonathan Shen (Suncorp)

Andy Tang (AXA Hong Kong), David Sun (L.E.K. Consulting), Tiger Chen (O/S), Neo Tang, Samuel Fung (Suncorp), Aris Stavrou (PwC), Andrew Chernih (PhD UNSW), Hing Chan (Tillinghast), Andrew Tang (PwC), Thomas Wang (Winterthur), Kelvin Mo (CBA), Victor Chandra (E&Y), Jack Jie (PhD Macquarie), Luke Cassar (Finity), Simon Crawford-Ash (Port Jackson Partners), Chao Qiao (PwC), Andy Lai (Taylor Fry), Maathu Nirmalendran (Finity), Timothy Yip (Taylor Fry), Vincent Tu (PhD UNSW), Jamie Tao (Westpac), …

How do I apply? Talk to potential supervisors NOW (you will need their help!) Choosing the right supervisor is essential. Submit an EOI by 1 November 2013 •  EOI form, with supervisors’ signature •  4-6 page pre-proposal, which must outline: Topic, Motivation, Short

review of literature, Outline of research questions and contribution, Importance and significance of those

•  CV + other documents for non-UNSW applicants

Shortlisted applicants must attend an interview with the Honours coordinator and the Chair of the School Research Committee during the exam period at a mutually agreed time. Outcomes will be announced by 25 November 2013.

Australian School of Business

Honours / MPhil in Actuarial Studies, 2014

CEPAR Presentation

An Introduction to the Centre and Opportunities for Honours Students

Purpose  (be  part  of  something  big)  +  

Community  (students,  post-­‐docs,  research  fellows)  +    

Ac>vi>es  (seminars,  workshops,  training  courses)  +  

Connec>ons  (interna>onal  research  and  frequent  visitors)  +  

Why  should  you  choose  CEPAR?  

Scholarships  ($$$)  

But  first,  CEPAR  Established:  in   March  2011  

Covering  research  in:   Economics,  Psychology,  Sociology,    Epidemiology,  Actuarial  Science  and  Demography  

Nodes  located  at:  

With  interna>onal    partners:  

And  with  other  links  at:  

RIPPA  

Work  with  govt.:    

And  industry:    

 

But  first,  CEPAR  

Countries where more than one fifth of the population is 65 or over in 2010

Be  part  of  something  big  

Countries where more than one fifth of the population is 65 or over in 2050

Be  part  of  something  big  

Community  Chief  

Inves>gators,  8  

Partner  Inves>gators,  5  

Associate  Inves>gators,  30  

Research  Fellows  ,  23  

Research  Assistants/Project  

Officers,  7  

Administra>ve  Staff,  8  

PhD  and  MPhil  students,  33  

Honours  students,  5  

Formally  established  

RIPPA  Conference  Japan  

Ac>vi>es  Mar  

Apr  

May  

Jun  

Jul  

Aug  

Sep  

Oct  

Nov  

Dec  

Jan  

Feb  

Mar  

Apr  

May  

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Nov  

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Jan  

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Mar  

Apr  

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Jun  

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Sep  

Oct  

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2011   2012   2013  

Emerging  Researchers  in  Ageing  conference  Emerging  

Researchers  in  Ageing  conference  

SuperannuaBon  colloquium  

Aged  care  policy  dialogue  

InternaBonal  conference  &  industry  forum  

FaHCSIA  roundtable  on  labour  parBcipaBon  

Health  policy  

roundtable  

Specialist  workshops  (Cont.  Bme  modelling)  

Specialist  workshop  (demography)  

Specialist  workshops  (PorKolio  opBmisaBon)  

ACE  forum  Zhejiang  conference  in  China  

Harvard  workshop  

SuperannuaBon  colloquium  

Launch  of  Asia  briefings  with  AMP  

CEPAR  organised  /  part  sponsored  conference  CEPAR  event  targeted  at  policy  CEPAR  event  targeted  at  industry  

Emerging  Researchers  in  Ageing  conference  

CEPAR  topic  +  

CEPAR  supervision  +  

UNSW  School  of  Economics    or  Actuarial  Studies    

How  to  affiliate  with  CEPAR?  

Honours  and  PhD  in  UNSW  Economics  or  Actuarial  Studies:  

1.  Mature-­‐age  labour  force  par>cipa>on  

2.  Aged  care    

3.  Re>rement  income  

4.  Longevity  risk  management  

The  topics  

Economics  

•  John  Piggoc  

•  Alan  Woodland  

•  Elisabeca  Magnani  

•  Isabella  Dobrescu  

•  Denzil  Fiebig  

Actuarial  Studies  

•  Michael  Sherris  

•  Hazel  Bateman  

The  supervisors  

CEPAR  Research  Fellows  may  provide  joint  supervision  

Honours  

•  $5000  scholarships  available  for  2014  commencement  (UNSW  node)    

•  May  be  held  in  conjunc>on  with    ASB  Honours  scholarships  (also  $5000)  

•  Apply  via  unsw  scholarships  website  –  applica>ons  close  28  February  2014  

PhD  

•  $5000  supplementary  scholarships  available  for  2014  commencement  

•  Apply  via  CEPAR  website  –  applica>ons  close  31  October  2013  

The  Cash  

Email        cepar@unsw.edu.au  Web    www.cepar.edu.au  Twicer    @cepar_research  

Follow  us  on  twicer  

Find  out  more  +  Apply  for  scholarships    

Ques>ons?  

Australian School of Business

Honours / MPhil in Actuarial Studies, 2014

Potential Honours Projects

Staff:  Anthony  Asher  &  Brian  Chu  

Proposed Honours Topics for 2014 •  Determination of impact of demographic changes on flows into

investment markets internationally. In the few years before retirement, people increase their saving dramatically, and begin dissaving as they enter retirement. The question is what is the impact of the retirement of the baby-boomers retirement on investment markets in different countries?

•  What is the impact of recent technological and demographic changes on lifetime salary progressions?

Staff:  Anthony  Asher  &  ScoY  Donald  

Proposed Honours Topic for 2014 •  The quantity of law and regulation has increased dramatically in

recent times – especially in finance. There is a widespread view that it is now too complex, but there are no real measures of how to make a cost benefit analysis of complexity.

•  The aim of the project would be to evaluate Australian superannuation regulation in terms of complexity, considering the corporate governance and other benefits and the costs in terms of administration and cognitive overload.

•  The project will include an explore of the literature on regulation and complexity and interview with superannuation trustees and regulators.

•  The project would be of particular interest to a student with actuarial and law majors

Staff:  Bernard  Wong  

Proposed Honours Topics for 2014 –  Dependence modeling in General Insurance

•  Efficient methods of economic capital calculations and reserving

•  Applications of techniques in continuous time stochastic processes

•  Statistical aspects including application to real industry data •  Extensions to Extreme Risks

–  Optimal Dividend problems in more realistic settings •  Optimal Dividend problems in actuarial surplus models. •  Incorporation of modern corporate finance thoughts and

concepts •  Rigorous mathematical analysis.

Staff:  Hazel  Bateman  and  Kevin  Liu  Proposed Honours Topics for 2014 Pension Reform in China: The Availability and Adequacy of

Retirement Income Provision and Its Policy Implications •  China is currently in the process of developing the world’s largest

pension system for its 1.3 billion population •  Analysis of retirement needs of the elderly in China •  Evaluation of the role and effectiveness of current pension

arrangements across the heterogeneous population (e.g. urban, rural, migrant and public sector workers)

•  Pension reform challenges, options and recommendations •  Cross-sectional data: a new nationally representative survey of

8,438 households RA position available

Staff:  Jinxia  Zhu  Proposed Honours Topics for 2014 •  Modelling for insurance losses

─  Non-parametric approach

•  Dividend optimization for insurance companies: to find the optimal strategy among a set of admissible strategies such that the objective function is maximized.

─  More realistic objective functional ─  Extra constraints

.  

Staff:  Prof  Michael  Sherris  +  CEPAR  Postdocs/actuarial  academics  Longevity  Risk  Management  and  Modelling  •  Development  and  applica>on  of  financial  framework  for  longevity  risk  management  to  the  design  of  longevity  bonds  

•  Incorpora>ng  systema>c  longevity  risk  into  mul>ple  state  health  models  with  applica>on  to  insurer  and  pension  fund  solvency  

•  Funding  re>rement  and  the  role  of  housing  as  an  infla>on  and  health  hedge  

•  Flexible  longevity  product  design  to  incorporate  investment  risk  and  long  term  care  risks  

•  Investment  strategies  for  individuals  to  save  for  re>rement  allowing  for  flexible  re>rement  dates  and  post  re>rement  infla>on  risk  

•  Comparison  and  cri>que  of  Dutch  and  Australian  re>rement  systems  and  how  to  improve  them  

Scholarships  and  Part  >me  RA  posi>on(s)  under  ARC  grant  funding  available  +  CEPAR  Hons  Scholarships  

Staff:  Ralph  Stevens  and  Kevin  Liu  Proposed Honours Topics for 2014 Perceived Value of Using Super for Purchasing a Family Home

•  Family home and superannuation savings represent the two largest household assets in Australia

– Housing affordability is low, especially for young individuals –  Superannuation savings are compulsory, but preserved and

for the sole purpose of retirement •  Q: How much are we willing to pay for having the option of using

superannuation for purchasing a family home? •  What drives heterogeneity (personal characteristics, risk

aversion, financial literacy, knowledge, inertia, etc.)? •  Methodology: Lab experiment - state of the art ASB Lab

Modelling  the  evolution  of  health  transitions  (Ralph  &  Katja)  

Ê  Markov  model  of  health  transition  probabilities  

Ê  Developing  functional  form  depending  on  age  and  time  

Ê  Estimate  models  using  real  data  (Health  Retirement  Survey,  US)  

Ê  Applications:  Sustainability  of  health  expenditures,  working  longer,  long  term  care,  risks  for  health  insurer,    

Modelling  individual  health  costs  (Ralph  &  Katja)  

Ê  Out  of  pocket  health  costs  are  substantial  

Ê  Large  heterogeneity  in  population  

Ê  Describing  trajectories  for  health  cost  ,  depending  on    q  Health  status  (current,  past?),  health  insurance  coverage,  time  

to  death,  past  health  expenditures    

Ê  Estimate  models  using  real  data  (Health  &  Retirement  Survey,  US)  

Ê  Application:  Life  cycle  models  &  insurance.