Australian Environmental Issues

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Australias Environment

Issues and Trends2010

4613.0

Special issue: Climate Change


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Australias Environment:

Issues and Trends

2010

Brian Pink

Australian Statistician

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

EMBARGO: 11.30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) THURS 28 JAN 2010


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ABS Catalogue No. 4613.0

ISSN 14437155

Commonwealth of Australia 2010

This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process

without prior written permission from the Commonwealth. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights in this

publication should be addressed to The Manager, Intermediary Management, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Locked Bag 10,

Belconnen, ACT 2616, or email: .

In all cases the ABS must be acknowledged as the source when

reproducing or quoting any part of an ABS publication or other product.

Produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

INQUIRIES For further information about these and related statistics contact

the National Information and Referral Service on

1300 135 070, or refer to contacts listed at the back of this

publication.


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ABS AUSTRALIAS ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES AND TRENDS 4613.0 2010 iii

Feature Article Contents

Page

Preface ................................................................. v

General information.............................................. vi

Introduction...........................................................1

Feature Article ......................................................3Issue: Climate change ......................................................................... 4Climate change in Australia ................................................................ 5

What is climate change?...................................................................... 5The Greenhouse Effect............................................................................................................5Australias changing climate .......................... ....................... ...................... ....................... ......6Predicting future climate change ............................................................................................7

Australias greenhouse gas emissions................................................ 8Changes in emissions...............................................................................................................9Emissions by sector................................................................................................................10Energy................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ....................... ...10Stationary energy.................................................................................................................................................................10Transport..............................................................................................................................................................................11

Agriculture ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ................11Land use, land use change and forestry................................................................................11Industrial processes ...............................................................................................................12Waste.............. ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ..................... ............12

Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions ........................................ 13Opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.......................................................13Energy intensity in Australian industry .................................................................................14Carbon sequestration and offset opportunities ...................................................................14Passenger transport................................................................................................................15The renewable energy industry.............................................................................................16Sources of energy in homes .................... ....................... ...................... ....................... ..........17Energy efficiency in homes....................................................................................................18Putting a price on carbon ......................................................................................................19

Impacts and adaptation .................................................................... 20Impacts affecting society, environment and the economy..................................................20Water... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ......................20Dams.....................................................................................................................................................................................20

Water management on farms .............................................................................................................................................21Inland waterways and wetlands..........................................................................................................................................22Household water use and conservation ............................. ............................... ................................. ............................... 23

Agriculture ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ...................... ................24Murray-Darling Basin...........................................................................................................................................................25

Biodiversity..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ..................... ....................26Eco-tourism..........................................................................................................................................................................27

Coastal settlements .................... .................... .................... .................... .................... ............28Human health.........................................................................................................................29

Australians most at risk .....................................................................................................................................................29

Summary............................................................................................ 30Endnotes ............................................................................................ 31


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ABS AUSTRALIAS ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES AND TRENDS 4613.0 2010 v

Preface

Australia's Environment: Issues and Trends 2010 is the 5th edition in a series that presents a

broad selection of environmental statistics and information on topical environmental issues. Bydrawing on a wide range of ABS statistics and statistics from other official sources,Australia's

Environment: Issues and Trends describes major aspects of Australias environment and how

these are changing over time. It is designed to assist and encourage informed decision-making,

and to meet the information needs of a general readership.

The material presented inAustralia's Environment: Issues and Trends is organised into two

main parts. The first part explores an issue of major environmental concern, and the issue

chosen for the 2010 edition is climate change. The second part covers major trends of relevance

to the environment, included under five broad headings: population and urban, human

activities, atmosphere, water and landscape.

The opportunity has been taken to use the most recently available data to update analysis oftopics examined in previous editions. The publication does not aim to present data on all

environmental issues and other topics may be covered in future editions.

The production of this publication would not have been possible without the contributions of

numerous organisations and individuals. The ABS is grateful for this help.

The ABS welcomes readers' suggestions on how the publication could be improved. To

comment or to ask for more information, please contact the Director of the Centre of

Environment and Energy Statistics.

Brian Pink

Australian Statistician

Australian Bureau of Statistics

PO Box 10Belconnen ACT 2616.


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vi ABS AUSTRALIAS ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES AND TRENDS 4613.0 2010

General information

Inquiries about these statistics

General inquiries about the content and interpretation of statistics in this publication should beaddressed to:

DirectorCentre of Environment and Energy Statistics

ABSPO Box 10Belconnen ACT 2616

Telephone Canberra (02) 6252 5920

Email [email protected]

Inquiries about the availability of more recent data from the ABS should be directed to theNational Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070.

There is a wealth of statistical information on the ABS website .

ABS publications and services

ABS publications are available on the ABS website .

In many cases, the ABS can also provide information which is available on request or which ishistorical or compiled from a variety of sources. Information of this kind may be obtainedthrough the Information Consultancy Service. Charges are generally made for such information.The ABS also issues a daily release advice on the website which details products to be releasedin the week ahead.


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ABS AUSTRALIAS ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES AND TRENDS 4613.0 2010 vii

Abbreviations

The following abbreviations have been used in this publication.

Australia, states and territories of Australia

Aust. Australia

NSW New South Wales

Vic. Victoria

Qld Queensland

SA South Australia

WA Western Australia

Tas. Tasmania

NT Northern Territory

ACT Australian Capital Territory

Other abbreviations

ABARE Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

CFCs chlorofluorocarbons

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

DEWHA Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts

EPBC Act Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999

GDP gross domestic product

GVIAP gross value of irrigated agricultural production

HFCE household final consumption expenditure

HFCs hydrofluorocarbons

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIUCN World Conservation Union (International Union for the

Conservation of Nature)

LNG liquefied natural gas

NEPM National Environment Protection Measure

PFCs perfluorocarbons

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

NWC National Water Commission

PM particulate matter

PPP Purchasing Power Parity

SLA Statistical Local Area

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Conversions

One billion = 1,000 million

One gigalitre (GL) = 1,000 megalitres (ML)

One megalitre (ML) = 1,000 kilolitres (kL)

One kilolitre (kL) = 1,000 litres (L)

One megatonne (Mt) = 1,000,000 tonnes (t)

One tonne (t) = 1,000 kilograms (kg)

One petajoule (PJ) = 1,000,000 gigajoules (GJ)

One gigajoule (GJ) = 1,000,000 kilojoules (kJ)


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ABS AUSTRALIAS ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES AND TRENDS 4613.0 2010viii

Symbols and usages

The following symbols and usages mean:

CH4 methane

CO2 carbon dioxideCO2-e carbon dioxide equivalentC degrees Celsius$ dollars$m million dollarsg gramsGJ gigajoules (of energy)GL gigalitresha hectareskL kilolitreskm kilometreskm square kilometresML megalitres

Mt megatonnesMW megawatts

g micrograms

g/m micrograms per cubic metre

m micrometres (micron)

N2O nitrous oxiden.a. not availablen.p. not publishedno. numberPJ petajoules (of energy)ppm parts per millionSO2 sulphur dioxide

SF6 sulphur hexafluoride% per cent'000 thousand'000 ha thousand hectares

nil or rounded to zero

Where figures have been rounded, discrepancies may occur between the sums ofthecomponent items and totals.


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ABS AUSTRALIAS ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES AND TRENDS 4613.0 2010 1

Introduction

Aims

Many current approaches used when discussing issues on the environment divide environmentinto component areas of concern, e.g. biodiversity, land, water and air. While this approach isintuitive and useful, and largely mirrors the way in which environmental welfare is publiclyadministered, its success is partly dependent on the extent to which information can be re-integrated to provide a cohesive picture of Australia's environment and environmental trends.Certainly, when policy makers, environmental practitioners or researchers seek information,their focus is on complex environmental issues which often cut across such areas. For example,to usefully inform on an issue such as salinity, a researcher would need to bring together datarelating to soils, agricultural activities, water, biodiversity, and vegetation; and data on drinkingand irrigation water may also be relevant. Thus,Australia's Environment: Issues and Trends

aims to bring together data from a wide range of statistical collections, and to present these datafrom an issue and trends driven perspective. More specifically,Australia's Environment: Issues

and Trends aims to:

Inform decision-making, research and discussion on environmental conditions in Australia,environmental issues of current and ongoing concern, environmental pressures of interest,and changes in these over time by drawing together up-to-date environmental data andanalysis from both ABS and other official sources, and incorporating readily understoodcommentary about the statistics.

Support the monitoring and review of progress towards environmental goals, changes inenvironmental conditions, and levels of environmental pressures and responses bypresenting a range of issues and trends on a regular basis.

Approach

Australia's Environment: Issues and Trends 2010 comprises two main parts: a feature article(the issue), and trends. The feature article explores an issue of environmental concern. Theissue chosen for this year is climate change. The feature article aims to provide relevantstatistical facts surrounding the issue, together with context and explanation throughhighlighting relevant environmental developments. It is the intention that the topic of thefeature article will change with every edition, with some topics refreshed as new data becomeavailable. Thus, each edition will remain responsive to contemporary concerns and a morecomprehensive picture of Australian environmental conditions will accumulate across editions.

The second part, the trends section, is broken into five discrete areas that encapsulate majorenvironmental indicators of interest to Australians. These are: Population and urban, Humanactivities, Atmosphere, Water and Landscape. The main data sources used in the trends sectionsare included at the bottom of the tables and graphs or referenced at the bottom of each page.

A key aspect of the publication is its readability. Information is deliberately presented in non-technical language that can be readily understood by the general reader. Statistics are organisedto illustrate specific issues and to highlight the meaning behind the data, and the main patternsand exceptions.


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2 ABS AUSTRALIAS ENVIRONMENT: ISSUES AND TRENDS 4613.0 2010

Environmental trends and progress

Australia's Environment: Issues and Trends complements the ABS publicationMeasures of

Australia's Progress (MAP, cat. no. 1383.0.55.001). MAP presents a suite of indicators for

reporting on economic, social and environmental progress and considers the interrelationshipsbetween these aspects of life. MAP 2009 used six headline indicators to discuss progress in the

health of the environment: biodiversity, land, inland waters, air quality, atmosphere and oceans

and estuaries. In addition, MAP presents a number of supplementary and other indicators.

It should be noted that there is no definitive set of indicators that encapsulate progress in the

environmental domain. Any suite cannot fully reveal the total picture of Australia's environment.

Australia's Environment: Issues and Trends extends both the breadth and depth of the

environmental investigation presented in MAP.

Looking at indicators is useful for the following:

evaluating conditions and trends comparing places and situations offering early alert information anticipating future conditions and trends evaluating conditions in relation to certain policy goals.The indicators included inAustralia's Environment: Issues and Trends 2010 have been chosento strike a balance between considerations of approachability, technical precision and theavailability and quality of data. The indicators used in this publication have been selected on thebasis that, as far as possible, they should be:

relevant supported by timely data of good quality available preferably as a time series to see if changes are significant over time summary in nature preferably capable of disaggregation by, say, geography or population group intelligible and easily interpreted by the general reader.Data gaps and data inconsistency present problems in many areas of environmental analysis.

For example, water quality is measured in many states and territories, but not on a comparable

basis.


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Feature Article


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Issue: Climate change

Climate change is a global problem with global consequences. Warmer-than-averagetemperatures are being recorded across the world. Glaciers and polar ice caps are melting andsea levels are rising. Mounting evidence indicates that these changes are not the result of thenatural variability of climate.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988 by the WorldMeteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP),released its fourth assessment report in 2007. It declared that warming of the climate system isunequivocal and it is very likely that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity havecaused most of the observed global temperature increase since the mid-1900s.1

In Australia and internationally, there has been an increasing focus on the issue of climate

change and the demand for credible statistics and information has grown accordingly.

This feature article begins with a brief discussion of the science of climate change, followed by astatistical examination of Australias contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, andopportunities for reducing emissions in Australia. The last section presents statistics related tothe impacts climate change is projected to have on Australias society, economy andenvironment and some broad adaptation measures being undertaken.

What is climate change?While climate changes can occur naturally, there is now generalagreement that global warming over the last 50 years is very likely the result of humanactivities, specifically the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Increasedlevels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap heat and increase the earthstemperature. Since 1950, Australias average annual temperature has increased by 0.9C. If

global emissions remain high, by 2070 the average annual temperature is projected toincrease by a further 2.2 to 5.0C.2

Australias greenhouse gas emissions:Australia has about 0.3% of the worldspopulation, but contributes about 1.5% of total greenhouse gas emissions.3 This puts

Australians among the highest per capita emitters. In 2007, Australias net greenhouse gasemissions across all sectors totalled 597.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2-e) under the accounting provisions of the Kyoto Protocol.

4

Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions isnecessary to mitigate human-induced climate change. There are many opportunities forhouseholds and businesses in Australia to reduce emissions, including large-scale use ofrenewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency and greater use of public transport.

Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases can also be potentially reduced by activities whichincrease the amount of carbon stored in our soils and forests. Putting a price on carbonemissions would change the relative prices of different forms of energy and accelerate themove to a low carbon economy.

Impacts and adaptation:Australias climate is already changing and in coming decades theAustralian community will probably need to take steps to adapt to the impacts of climatechange that cannot be avoided by mitigation. Some of the areas considered most vulnerableto the impacts of climate change include water, agriculture, biodiversity, coastal settlementsand human health. In some cases, households and businesses are already taking voluntaryaction to adapt to a changing climate. Some areas are vulnerable precisely because theircapacity to adapt is limited.


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Climate change in Australia

What is climate change?

The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) defines climate change as achange in the state of the climate that canbe identified by changes in the mean

and/or the variability of its properties, andthat persists for an extended period,typically decades or longer.5 Climatechange is also often referred to as global

warming.

Globally, there is evidence of climatechange, including increases in air andocean temperatures, widespread melting ofsnow and ice and rising sea levels.6

The Greenhouse Effect

The earths atmosphere is like a blanketthat keeps the planet warm. Incomingenergy from the sun penetrates theatmosphere to warm the earth. The earththen radiates heat back toward space. Some

of the outgoing heat is absorbed bygreenhouse gases in the atmosphere andre-emitted back to earth, keeping the planetat a level warm enough to support life. Thisis called thegreenhouse effect.

An enhanced greenhouse effect can causeclimate change as increased levels ofgreenhouse gases (mostly carbon dioxide)in the atmosphere lead to more heat beingtrapped, so the earths temperatureincreases. While natural phenomena havecaused the climate to change in the past,

there is now a general consensus thathuman activities are largely responsible fortodays very high levels of greenhouse gasemissions and associated climate change.

Important terms

Adaptation adjustments in natural or human systems in

response to actual or anticipated climate changes or their

effects.

Carbon sink a natural or human activity or mechanism

that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, such as

the absorption of carbon dioxide by growing trees.

Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average

weather a region experiences, usually calculated over a 30-

year period. It usually encompasses surface variables such

as temperature, precipitation and wind. While weather can

vary dramatically from one day to the next, climate cannot.

Extreme weather event meteorological conditions which

are rare for a particular place and/or time, such as an

intense storm or heat wave. An extreme climate event is

an unusual average over time of a number of weather

events, for example heavy rainfall over a season.

Greenhouse gases both natural and anthropogenic

gases in the atmosphere that absorb and emit infrared or

heat radiation, causing the greenhouse effect. The main

greenhouse gases are water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2),

methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).

Mitigation refers to response strategies that aim to limit

human-induced climate change by reducing greenhouse gas

emissions or removing greenhouse gases from the

atmosphere through sequestration.

Sequestration refers to the uptake and storage of carbon.

For example, trees and plants absorb carbon dioxide,

release the oxygen and store the carbon in above-ground

organic matter or in the soil. In the context of response

strategies, sequestration usually refers to the process of

increasing the storage of carbon (for example via

reforestation), increasing the carbon content of the soil, or

removal of carbon dioxide from flue gases for storage below

ground or in the deep ocean.

Weather is the state of the atmosphere at a given time and

place. It refers to the temperature, air pressure, humidity,

wind, cloudiness and precipitation of a region over a short

period of time (e.g. daily maximum temperature).

Note: Many of these definitions are in a climate change context and

may not apply in other fields.

Source: Australian Greenhouse Office, 2003, Climate Change: An

Australian Guide to the Science and Potential Impacts.


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Australias changing climate

Global warming is real, humans are verylikely to be causing it, and it is very

likely that there will be changes in the

global climate system in the centuries to

come larger than those seen in the recent

past

CSIRO and Bureau of

Meteorology, 2007.7

Australias climate is changing. Since 1950,

Australias average annual temperature has

increased by 0.9C. Scientists conclude that

most of this change is likely due to human

emissions of greenhouse gases. Declines in

snow cover, increases in warm days and

decreases in cold days are also likely to be

attributable to human activity.8

Rainfall is also changing but the causes of

these changes can be difficult to determine.

Studies have estimated that 50% of thedecrease in rainfall in south-western WA

over the last 30 years has been due to

human-induced climate change.9 Recent

CSIRO climate modelling indicates effects

on Australias climate due to aerosol

pollutiona from the northern hemisphere.

These include increased rainfall in north-

western Australia, and increased air

pressure over southern Australia, leading

to less rainfall there.10

a Fine particles suspended in the atmosphere. Mainsources include: industry, vegetation burning,

volcanoes and dust storms.

Annual mean temperature anomalies 1910 to 2008

1910 1928 1946 1964 1982 2000

Temperature Anomalies (C)

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Note: Anomalies are based on 1961 to 1990 average of 21.8C.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology, 2009,Australian Climate Change and Variability,, last viewed October 2009.


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Predicting future climate change

Climate models are used by scientists tosimulate the climate system and predict

how greenhouse gas emissions are likely tochange the climate in the future.11

Building on global scientific knowledge,CSIRO and the Australian Bureau ofMeteorology have used climate models toproject future climate change in Australia.Their 2007 report presents climate changeprojections to 2070 for a range of emissionsscenarios:12

assuming a low emissions scenario,by 2050 annual warming is

projected to increase by 0.8 to1.8C and by 2070 to 1.0 to 2.5C;

assuming a high emissionsscenario, annual warming isprojected to increase by 1.5 to2.8C by 2050 and by 2.2 to 5.0Cby 2070.

Australia is a vast continent and theprojected changes to climate varyconsiderably from region to region andfrom season to season. For example, overthe next few decades warming is expectedto be greater in inland areas than in coastalareas and rainfall is projected to changelittle in the far north but decreaseelsewhere. 13

Other projected changes the magnitudeof which depends on the emissionsscenario include:

increases in the frequency of hotdays and warm nights;

changing rainfall, (e.g. by 2070,under the high emissions scenario,rainfall in southern areas isprojected to change by between-30% and +5%);

decreases in snow cover, averagesnow season lengths and peaksnow depths;

increases in annual potentialevapotranspiration (the transport

of water into the atmosphere fromthe earths surfaces and

vegetation);

increases in the occurrence ofdrought, particularly in south-

western Australia;

increased fire weather risk in someareas; and

global seal level rise of 18 to 59 cm,with an additional contribution ofup to 17 cm from ice sheetdynamics.14 However, larger values

cannot be excluded,15

and recentresearch indicates that a sea levelrise of one metre or more by 2100is possible.16


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Australias greenhouse gas

emissions

Greenhouse gases are produced by humanactivities such as burning of fossil fuels (e.g.coal, oil and gas), agriculture and landclearing. The concentration of greenhousegases in the atmosphere varies naturallyover time, but since around 1750, humanactivities associated with industrialisationhave dramatically increased theseconcentrations. For example,concentrations of carbon dioxide now farexceed the natural range over the last650,000 years.17

While Australia only accounts for around1.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions,its per capita (per person) CO2 emissionsare nearly twice the OECD average andmore than four times the world average.18

Australias relatively high per capitaemissions can be attributed to factors suchas the high usage of coal in electricitygeneration and agricultural emissions fromlarge numbers of sheep and cattle.19

Australias Department of Climate Changeprovides annual estimates of Australiasgreenhouse gas emissions, under theaccounting rules that apply for the KyotoProtocol.20

Australias net greenhouse gas emissions in2007 totalled 597.2 Mt (million tonnes) ofCO2-e (carbon dioxide equivalent). Thisrepresented a 9% increase from the 1990level of 547.7 Mt CO2-e.

21

Australias net greenhouse gas

emissions 1990 to 2007

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Mt

CO2-e

400

500

600

700

800

Note: Kyoto-based estimates of Australias net

greenhouse gas emissions.

Source:Department of Climate Change, 2009, National

Greenhouse Gas Inventory May 2009.

Global warming potential of majorgreenhouse gases

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most commonly emitted and

probably the best-known greenhouse gas, but there are

many others, such as water vapour, methane (CH4),

nitrous oxide (N2O), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6),

perfluorocarbons (CF4 and C2F6), and hydrofluorocarbons

(HFCs).

How much a given mass of a particular greenhouse gas

contributes to global warming varies with the type of gas,

and so the Global Warming Potential (GWP) index has been

developed to place all gases on a common measurement

footing. Calculating this index for different gases allows the

relative contributions of all greenhouse gases to beexpressed in terms of their CO2 equivalence. For example,

methane has 21 times the global warming potential (GWP)

of CO2. Some substances, such as sulphur hexafluoride,

have GWPs thousands of times that of CO2 and are of

concern even though they are emitted in small quantities.

Gas

100-year global

warming potential

(GWP)

Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1

Methane (CH4) 21

Nitrous oxide (N2O) 310

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) 23,900

CF4 6,500

C2F6 9.200Hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)-23 11,700

HFC-125 2,800

HFC-134a 1,300

HFC-143a 3,800

Note: These are the greenhouse gases regulated under the Kyoto

Protocol. Solvent and other product use can also cause emissions

of NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds).

Source:Department of Climate Change, 2009,

National Inventory Report 2007 Volume 1.


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Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) emissions, net, per capita and per $ GDP

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

index

60

70

80

90

100

110

120Net emissions (CO2-e)Net emissions (CO2-e)/capitaNet emissions (CO2-e)/$ GDP(a)

Note: Graph refers to Kyoto Protocol-based estimates of net greenhouse gas emissions. Index displays

emissions as a percentage of emissions in 1990.(a) GDP used is a chain volume measure; reference year 200708.

Source:Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 2008, Australian Historical Population Statistics (cat. no.3105.0.65.001);ABS, 2009, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product

September 2009 (cat. no. 5206.0); Department of Climate Change, 2009, National Greenhouse Gas

Inventory May 2009.

Changes in emissions

Although Australias annual greenhouse gasemissions increased slightly between 1990and 2007, the countrys per capitaemissions rate decreased by 12%. Despitethis reduction, Australia continues to emit a

large volume of greenhouse gases percapita, in comparison to other OECDcountries.22

The greenhouse gas emissions intensity ofthe Australian economy, expressed asemissions per dollar of GDP (chain volumemeasure), declined by 38% over the period1990 to 2007, from 830 g of carbon dioxideequivalent emissions (CO2-e) per dollarGDP in 1990 to 510 g per dollar GDP in2007.23 The falling trend in emissions per

unit of GDP reflects:24

specific emissions managementactivities across sectors;

a decline in net land use, land usechange and forestry (LULUCF)emissions over the period; and

stronger growth in the servicessectorof the Australian economy,relative to the more energy-intensive manufacturing sector.

By ratifying the Kyoto Protocol in 2007,

Australia agreed to stabilise its emissions(for the five-year commitment period of2008 to 2012) at no more than 108% of its1990 (base year) emissions level.25

The October 2008 estimate of Australias1990 net emissions was used to calculate

Australias target emissions under the KyotoProtocol. The 1990 emissions wereestimated at 547.7 Mt CO2-e, so the targetemissions under the Protocol were set at591.5 Mt CO2-e per year (over the period

2008 to 2012).26

Australias net greenhouse gas emissionsbetween 1990 and 2007 increased by 9%.Therefore, in order to meet its Kyoto targetfor the 2008 to 2012 period, Australia willneed to lower its emissions slightly fromthe 2007 level.


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Transport

Transport activity is the other major sourceof emissions related to the combustion offossil fuels. Transport contributed 78.8 MtCO2-e or 13% of Australias net emissions in2007. Emissions from this sector were26.9% higher in 2007 than in 1990.

Road transport was the main source oftransport emissions in 2007, accounting for68.5 Mt CO2-e or 11.5% of nationalemissions. Passenger cars

were the largest transport source,contributing 41.9 Mt CO2-e.

31

Agriculture

The agriculture sector produces most ofAustralias methane and nitrous oxideemissions. Agriculture produced anestimated 88.1 Mt CO2-e emissions or14.8% of net national emissions in 2007.

Agriculture sector emissions, 2007Emissions (Mt CO2-e)

CH4 N2O Total

Enteric fermentation 57.6 57.6

Manure management 1.9 1.6 3.5

Rice cultivation 0.2 0.2

Agricultural soils 15.0 15.0

Prescribed burning ofsavannas

8.1 3.5 11.6

Field burning of agricultural

residues0.2 0.1 0.3

Total agriculture sector 68.0 20.2 88.1

Source:Department of Climate Change, 2009, National

Inventory Report 2007 Volume 1.

Land use, land use change and

forestry

The Department of Climate Changeprepares submissions of Australiasgreenhouse gas emissions in two ways:

according to the rules of the KyotoProtocol; and

according to the guidelines of theUnited Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change(UNFCCC).

The two methods differ only in thetreatment of the land use, land use changeand forestry (LULUCF) sector.32

Under UNFCCC methodology, all emissions

from the human use of land, and fromnatural events, are accounted for. However,

under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol,emissions reported from the LULUCF sectorare limited to:33

afforestation and reforestation (i.e.new forest plantings, whichcorrespond to a negative emissions

value); and

deliberate deforestation of landthat was forest on the 1st of January1990.

LULUCF emissions

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

Mt CO2-e

300

200

100

0

100

200

300

400Net LULUCF emissions (Mt CO2-e) (UNFCCC method)

Net LULUCF emissions (Mt CO2-e) (Kyoto method)

Note: Estimates of Australias net greenhouse gas

emissions from the LULUCF sector, by the UNFCCC

reporting method and the Kyoto Protocol method.

Source:Department of Climate Change, 2009,

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory May 2009;

Department of Climate Change, 2009, National

Inventory Report 2007 Volume 2.

Australias net LULUCF emissions (and

hence its total net greenhouse gasemissions) are much more variable from

year to year under the UNFCCC reportingmethod than under the Kyoto accountingmethod. This is because Kyoto-basedLULUCF emissions reporting does notinclude emissions from natural events, suchas fire, drought and pest attack, nor doesitincludeemissions from land undercontinued land use, e.g. the growth,harvesting and regrowth of forests.34Therefore, Australias net emissions in 2007totalled 825.9 Mt CO2-e under theUNFCCCreporting method but only 597.2 Mt CO2-eunder the Kyoto accounting method. TheKyoto-based LULUCF net emissions figurefor 2007 was 56.0 Mt CO2-e, whereas theUNFCCC-based total was 284.7 Mt CO2-e.

35


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Industrial processes

Most greenhouse gas emissions fromindustrial processes are by-products ofproduction from non-energy related

sources. For example, high temperatureprocessing of calcium carbonate to producequicklime releases carbon dioxideemissions.

Emissions from the industrial processessector were 30.3 Mt CO2-e in 2007, which

was equivalent to 5.1% of net nationalemissions. This emissions level was 6.2 Mt(26%) higher than in 1990.36 The increasecan be attributed to a rise in emissions fromthe consumption of halocarbons andsulphur hexafluoride (SF6), which are used

particularly in refrigeration, airconditioning, foam blowing and aerosols.37

Waste

Waste emissions are predominantlymethane and account for less than 3% of

Australias total emissions. Total wasteemissions were 14.6 Mt CO2-e in 2007.

Waste emissions have decreased by 4.2 MtCO2-e (22.5%) since 1990.

38

Waste emissions can be from disposal ofsolid waste, wastewater handling or wasteincineration. Solid waste degrades veryslowly and methane emissions continuelong after the waste is placed in landfill. Forthis reason, waste emissions estimates forany year include a significant component ofemissions resulting from waste disposalover the previous 50 years. Hence, anychange to waste management practices arenot likely to affect reported waste emissionlevels for a number of years.39


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Reducing our greenhouse gas

emissions

Without effective mitigation, themainstream science tells us that theimpacts of climate change on Australia arelikely to be severe

Garnaut, 2008.40

It is difficult to know with certainty to what

level greenhouse gas emissions should be

reduced. This is partly because of the

uncertainty associated with predicting

future climate change and partly because

views about what constitutes acceptable

climate change differ depending on ethical,

economic and political judgements.41

The Garnaut Climate Change Review wascommissioned in April 2007 to examine theimpacts of climate change on the Australianeconomy and to recommend medium tolong-term policies and policy frameworksto improve the prospects of sustainableprosperity.42 This includedrecommendations in relation to two globalmitigation goals. One was a target forstabilisation of greenhouse gasconcentrations in the atmosphere at 450parts per million (ppm) of CO2-e; the othera less ambitious target of 550 ppm. Thesetargets are associated with long-termtemperature increases in the order of twoand three degrees Celsius, respectively.43

Opportunities for reducing

greenhouse gas emissions

The Garnaut Review outlined various

domestic policy options for reducing

Australias emissions. Market-based

approaches included the introduction of an

emissions trading scheme which would

establish the right to emit greenhouse gases

as a tradeable commodity. Examples of

regulatory options included mandatory

renewable energy targets and energy

efficiency standards for buildings and

appliances.44

The following section presents statistics on

energy intensity of industry, carbon

sequestration, passenger transport, energy

sources and efficiency, and putting a price

on carbon.

Worlds response to climate

change

1988 United Nations establishes IPCC

The World Meteorological Organisation and the United

Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The

Panel produces periodic assessment reports on scientific

information relevant to human-induced climate change.

1992 Global targets for reducing emissions

At the United Nations Conference on Environment and

Development (Earth Summit) held in Rio de Janeiro, the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC) was signed by 154 nations (by

December 2007, it had been ratified by 192 countries).

It provides the overall policy framework for addressing

climate change. The Convention, as originally framed,

set no mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for

individual nations and contained no enforcement

provisions; it is therefore considered legally non-binding.

1997 Kyoto: Legally binding cuts in emissions

The Kyoto Protocol is linked to the UNFCCC. It sets

legally binding commitments for the reduction of four

specific greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane,

nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups

of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) for

37 industrialised nations and the European community,

as well as general commitments for all member

countries. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto,

Japan, on 11 December 1997, entered into force on 16

February 2005 and has been ratified by 184 Parties of

the UNFCCC Convention.

2006 The Stern report

The Stern report was published in the UK. It examined

the economic impact of climate change and found that

the costs of inaction far outweighed the costs of action.

2007 Bali Roadmap

At the United Nations Climate Change Conference, held

in Bali, a decision was made to step up international

efforts to combat climate change and lay down

measures and obligations for the world, after the first

commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires at the

end of 2012.

2008 Australia ratifies Kyoto Protocol

Australia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol came into

effect on 11 March 2008. Under the Protocol, Australia

has agreed to an annual emissions target of 108% of its

1990 emissions during the 2008 to 2012 period.

2008 The Garnaut report

The Garnaut Climate Change Review examined the

impacts of climate change on the Australian economy

and the costs of adaptation and mitigation. It analysed

the elements of an appropriate international policy

response, and the challenges facing Australia in playing

its part in that response.

2009 Copenhagen

A series of UNFCCC meetings took place throughout

2009. These culminated in the United Nations Climate

Change Conference (COP 15) in Copenhagen from 7-18

December. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is an

association of all the countries which are Parties to theConvention and is the Conventions highest decision-

making authority.


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Energy intensity in Australian

industry

The energy intensity of an industry is ameasure of the energy consumed to

produce one unit of economic output.45

Reducing energy intensity would contributeto reducing Australias greenhouse gasemissions.

Australias energy intensity fell 36% overthe 30 years to 200607, from 4,880 to3,100 gigajoules of energy consumed permillion dollars of Industry Gross Value

Added.46

While most industries energy intensitylevels fell over the three decades to 200607, mining and agriculture increased.Transport and construction experienced

large reductions in energy intensity (49%and 74% respectively), while other servicesfell only 13%. Falls in energy intensity maybe attributable to factors other than moreefficient use of energy. For example, withinthe economy it may indicate a shift frommanufacturing activities to services or,

within an industry such as manufacturing, ashift from heavy to light manufacturing.47

Energy intensity, All industries, 197677 to 200607

1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

GJ/$m of IGVA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Note: Year refers to financial years, e.g. 1977 refers to 197677 financial year.

Source: ABS, 2009, Energy Account 200607 (cat. no. 4604.0).

Carbon sequestration and offset

opportunities in agriculture and

forestry

Increasing the amount of carbon stored, orsequestered, in our soils can reduce theamount of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere and improve agricultural

productivity.

Fifty-four per cent of Australias land area isused for agriculture.48 Managementpractices, such as increasing perennial

vegetation in pastures and maintaining cropresidues, can increase soil carbon inagricultural soils. However, the potentialfor agricultural soils to sequester carbon

varies depending on climate, soil type andprevious management practices.49

Afforestation provides another way inwhich carbon can be sequestered. TheAustralian Bureau of Agricultural and

Resource Economics has estimated thatbetween six and 28 million hectares ofagricultural land (approximately 1.5% to 7%of all agricultural land) will be economicallysuitable for afforestation between 2007 and2050, depending on the price of carbon.These forests (a combination of timberplantations and environmental plantings)

would sequester between 296 and 885 Mtof carbon by 2050.50

The Indigenous community in westernArnhem Land has already taken advantageof opportunities to reduce emissions. The

West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement Projectundertakes strategic fire management toreduce wildfires over an area of 28,000square kilometres. These activities reducegreenhouse gas emissions by 100,000tonnes of CO2-e each year, offsetting some

of the emissions from the liquefied naturalgas (LNG) plant in Darwin. In return,Darwin LNG is paying the Indigenous fire


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managers around $1 million a year andbringing new jobs and educationalopportunities to the region.51

Emissions and rural land useOpportunities for reducing emissions

Land clearing Reduce or cease land clearing.

Enteric emissions

from livestock

Reduce emissions from ruminant

livestock by either use of anti-

methanogen technology or shift

some meat production from sheep

and cattle to kangaroos.

Savanna burning Change management to reduce

emissions from savanna burning.

Biofuels Replace fossil fuels with biodiesel

made from algae or other plants.

Opportunities for carbon sequestration

Soil sequestration Change management practices on

cropped and grazed land to

sequester carbon in soils.Restoration of

mulga country

Restore degraded, low value

grazing country in arid Australia.

Plantations Establish plantations for timber

production and specifically to

sequester carbon.

Pre-1990 eucalypt

forests

Timber harvesting and other

human disturbances are reduced

to allow forests to sequester the

maximum amount of carbon.

Source: Garnaut, 2008, The Garnaut Climate Change Review.

Passenger transport

Fuel use in road transport is a significant

source of greenhouse gas emissions andpassenger cars make up a large componentof this. In terms of kilometres travelled forevery unit of energy used, buses are themost energy efficient mode of passengertransport, followed by heavy rail and motorcycles. Passenger cars and inland ferries arethe least efficient.52

Carbon dioxide emissions in new motorvehicles are falling. According to theNational Transport Commission, in 2008,the national average carbon emissions from

new passenger and light commercialvehicles was 222 g/km, a 12% reductionfrom 2002.53

In Australia in 2009, the most commonfactor considered when buying a motor

vehicle was the purchase price (53%).While fuel economy/running costs was thesecond most common factor (41%),environmental impact/exhaust emissions

were considered by only 4%.54 This isreflected in the fact that in 2008 only 1% ofcar sales in Australia were green carsb,

compared to 11% in the UK.55

Travel to work: selected modes,

2009Main form of transport used on usual trip to

work or full-time study, March 2009

%

Private motor vehicle 79.6Public transport 14.0

Bicycle 1.5

Walk 4.0

Other 0.9

Source: ABS, 2009, Environmental Issues: Waste Management

and Transport Use, Mar 2009 (ABS cat. no. 4602.0.55.002)

In 2009, over three quarters (80%) ofAustralians used private motor vehicles asthe main method of travel to work or study,compared to only 14% who used publictransport.56 However, the proportion oftrips on public transport has risen since

1996, particularly in Victoria.

Use of public transport, 1996 and

2009

NSW Vic. Qld SA WA Tas. NT ACTAustralia

%

0

5

10

15

2019962009

Note: Public transport used as the main form of transport

on usual trip to work or full-time study

Source: ABS, 2006, Environmental Issues: Peoples Views

and Practices March 2006 (cat. no. 4602.0); ABS,

2009, Environmental Issues: Waste Management and

Transport Use, March 2009 (ABS cat. no.

4602.0.55.002).

Lack of public transport services at the righttime and complete lack of services continueto be the main reasons why people in

Australia do not use public transport.In2009, over one half (52%) of people not

taking public transport cited either of thesereasons. The convenience/comfort/privacyof using a motor vehicle and travel time

were the next most common reasons fornot using public transport (22% and 18%,respectively).57

Relatively few people usually walked orcycled to their place of work or study (4%and 1%, respectively). The proximity ofhome (64%) and exercise and health (50%)

were the two most commonly reportedreasons why people walked or cycled. Only

7% cited environmental concerns as areason for walking.58

b Emissions not exceeding 120 g/km of CO2.


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Sources of energy in homes

Energy consumption in the residentialsector is a significant contributor to

greenhouse gas emissions in Australia dueto the heavy reliance on fossil fuels, notablycoal, to produce electricity.

Hot water systems and space heatingaccount for the majority of energy used inmost households. In March 2008, electricity

was the main energy source for hot watersystems (46%), space heating (35%), ovens(75%) and cooktops (56%).64

Compared to electricity generated fromcoal, natural gas produces substantially less

carbon dioxide emissions.65

Gas is thesecond most common source of energy forAustralian households and was used inmore than half of households (61%) inMarch 2008, particularly in the gasproducing states of Victoria and Western

Australia.66

Use of renewable energy is still uncommonin Australian homes. Solar energy use hasincreased from 5% in 2002 to 8% in 2008. Itis used primarily for heating water.67

Main sources of energy in

dwellings, 2008

Mains

electricity

Mains

gas

LPG/

bottled

gas

Wood Solar 0

20

40

60

80

100

Note: Only includes the five most common sources of energy

used in residential dwellings.

Source: ABS, 2008, Environmental Issues: Energy Use and

Conservation March 2008 (cat. no. 4602.0.55.001).

The use of solar hot water variesconsiderably between regions. In theNorthern Territory and Western Australia,54% and 21% of households, respectively,had solar hot water, compared to thenational figure of 7%.68 These higherproportions reflect numerous factors butespecially high levels of solar radiation inthese states and the larger proportion ofremote communities lacking access tocheap mains electricity.

Solar hot water heating, Use in dwellings

NSW Vic. Qld SA WA Tas. NT ACT Aust.

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

601994

2002

2008

Source: ABS, 2008, Environmental Issues: Energy Use and Conservation March 2008

(cat. no. 4602.0.55.001).

GreenPower is a government renewableenergy accreditation program. GreenPowerschemes enable consumers to pay apremium for electricity generated fromsources like mini hydro, wind power andbiomass which produce no net greenhousegas emissions.

The schemes have been operating for overten years in New South Wales, Victoria,Queensland, Western Australia, South

Australia and the Australian CapitalTerritory. In the March quarter 2009, there

were approximately 984,000 GreenPowercustomers in Australia, a substantialincrease from 138,879 customers in March2005.69


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More than half of all households (52%)were aware of GreenPower in 2008(including 5% already paying forGreenPower). This was a large increasecompared with 2005 and 1999 when 29%

and 19% respectively were aware ofGreenPower.70

In 2008, one-third of households that wereaware of GreenPower stated they were

willing to pay more to support the scheme,up from 23% in 2005.71

Awareness of GreenPower scheme, March 2008NSW Vic. Qld SA WA ACT Aust.

% % % % % % %

Already paying for GreenPower 5.0 7.1 5.3 5.8 *1.0 4.9 5.3

Aware of GreenPower scheme 48.9 52.9 38.4 45.3 38.4 65.9 46.7

Not aware of GreenPower scheme 42.2 35.6 53.1 45.4 59.0 26.3 44.4

Did not know 3.9 4.4 3.2 3.5 1.6 *2.9 3.6

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

* estimate has a relative standard error of 25% to 50% and should be used with caution

Note: Data covers only states and territories that are participating in the National Green Power Accreditation Program.

Source: ABS, 2008, Environmental Issues: Energy Use and Conservation March 2008 (cat. no. 4602.0.55.001).

Willingness to pay extra per annum on GreenPower electricity, March 2008NSW Vic. Qld SA WA ACT Aust.

% % % % % % %

Willing to pay extra 30.9 30.9 34.6 30.9 37.6 36.1 32.5

Not willing to pay extra 57.7 56.0 52.3 55.3 53.1 54.0 55.4

Did not know 11.4 13.1 13.1 13.8 9.3 9.9 12.1

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Note: Data covers only states and territories that are participating in the National Green Power Accreditation Program.

Source: ABS, 2008, Environmental Issues: Energy Use and Conservation March 2008 (cat. no. 4602.0.55.001).

Energy efficiency in homes

Residential buildings are responsible for a

significant proportion of Australiasemissions, in both construction and use.

In 200708, most Australians (88%)reported that they take steps to limit theirelectricity use.The main reasons peoplegave for not taking steps to limit electricityuse was that their electricity consumption

was already low enough (33%) and thatthey had not thought about savingelectricity (27%).72

Electrical appliances account for around

30% of energy use in the home.73 In 2008,more than three-quarters (77%) of allhouseholds had a heater, over two-thirds(67%) had a cooler (i.e. air conditioner orevaporative cooler) and more than half(56%) had a clothes dryer. Nearly half ofhouseholds had dishwashers (45%) andmore than one-third had separate freezers(37%).74

When buying new appliances, energyefficiency was the most commonly reportedfactor which influenced the decision to buy

a refrigerator (72%) and air conditioner(74%). Purchase price was the second mostcommonly reported factor for theseappliances (68% and 63% respectively).75

Houses with insulation


%

0

20

40

60

80

1001994

2002

2008

Source: ABS, 2008, Environmental Issues: Energy Use andConservation March 2008 (cat. no. 4602.0.55.001).

In 2008, 61% of households reportedhaving insulation in their dwelling, up from52% in 1994. The main reason given forhaving insulation was to improve comfort(83% of households installing insulation).

While only a small proportion (4%) ofhouseholds reported that they had installedinsulation primarily to save energy, theinstallation of insulation for whateverreason leads to lower energy use.76


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Putting a price on carbon

Sir Nicholas Stern has described climate

change as the greatest example of market

failure we have ever seen.77

The failure toput a price on emissions has led to

excessive emissions and the risk of

dangerous climate change.78

Putting a price on carbond through the

introduction of emissions trading has been

proposed as one way to reduce emissions.

Under a cap and trade scheme, permits are

required to emit greenhouse gases into the

atmosphere. These permits can be bought

and sold but the government is able to

place a cap on total emissions by limiting

the number of permits issued.79

Industries in Australia most likely to be

affected by putting a price on carbon are

those with: 1) a high emissions intensity; 2)

limited or negligible access to substitutes to

reduce their emissions intensity; 3)

exposure to increased costs under an

emissions trading scheme; 4) limited

capacity to pass on the emissions price.

In July 2008, the Australian Government

released a Green Paper on a CarbonPollution Reduction Scheme which

included options and preferred approaches

relating to imposing a limit on how much

carbon pollution industry can emit.

Although in the proposed scheme the cost

of purchasing emissions permits would rest

with certain emissions-intensive industries,

such as electricity generators, the cost is

expected to be passed down the supply

chain.

Consumers would, therefore, pay more for

a range of goods and services, particularly

emissions-intensive goods and services.

Low income households are particularly

vulnerable to price increases as they spend

a greater proportion of their incomes on

items that are more likely to be impacted by

higher energy prices, such as food, petrol,

electricity and gas.80

d Carbon dioxide emissions.

Expenditure on selected items as a

proportion of disposable income

Low Middle High

Income Group

%

0

5

10

15

20

25Domestic fuel and power

Food and nonalcoholic beverages

Motor vehicle fuel

Source: ABS, data available on request (Household Expenditure

Survey, 200304).

Some households already struggle to

purchase necessities. In 200304, almost

9% of households with low income and low

net worth reported they were unable to

heat their home. Twelve percent went

without meals and 38% could not pay

utility bills on time.81

Selected indicators of financial

stress, 200304Low economic

resources

households (a) (%)

Other

households

(%)

Unable to heat

home

8.9 1.2

Went without

meals

11.8 1.8

Could not pay

bills on time

37.8 11.5

Total households

(000)

1,050.6 6,685.2

(a) Households simultaneously in both the lowest three income

deciles and the lowest three net worth deciles.

Source: ABS, data available on request (Household Expenditure

Survey, 200304).

People living in rural or outer suburban

areas may also be disproportionately

affected. Higher transport costs in these

areas will also be reflected in higherproduct prices, including food. Those who

need to drive long distances to access

services will be particularly vulnerable to

rising fuel prices.82

The effects of higher fuel and power prices

can be offset by a range of measures. For

example, under an emissions trading

scheme, revenues gained from the sale of

emission permits to industry can be used to

compensate households, improve access to

public transport and assist households touse more energy efficient products and

motor vehicles.


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Impacts and adaptation

Mitigation will come too late to avoid

substantial damage from climate changeGarnaut, 2008.83

Within the next few decades, it is likely thatAustralian households, communities andbusinesses will have to take actions toadapt to the impacts of climate change thatcannot be avoided by mitigation.84

Impacts affecting society,

environment and the economy

The impacts of climate change will affectthe environment, society and the economy.The vulnerability of these systems will varybetween regions and sectors depending onexposure to changes in the climate,sensitivity to those changes and capacity toadapt.

This section explores some of the areasconsidered most vulnerable to the impactsof climate change:

Water Agriculture Biodiversity Coastal settlements Human health

While some households and businesses arealready taking actions to adapt to achanging climate, some are limited in theircapacity to adapt and, therefore, may bemore vulnerable.

WaterIn 200405, the distribution of waterconsumption in the Australian economy

was:

65% by agriculture; 11% by households; 11% water supply industry

(including losses in deliverysystem);

3% by manufacturing; 10% by other industries (e.g.

mining, service industries).85

Lower rainfall and increases in evaporationwill reduce runoff and stream flow in manyparts of Australia, including many majorcities and irrigation areas. For example, in

one study a temperature increase of 1 to2C is projected to result in a 7 to 35%decrease in Melbournes water supply and a0 to 25% decrease in flow in the Murray-Darling Basin.86

Projections suggest that across Australia thenumber of drought months will increase byup to 20% by 2030. By 2070, droughtmonths are projected to increase by up to40% in eastern Australia and by up to 80%in south-western Australia.87

Dams

Dams have been built in Australia since thelate-1800s to provide a reliable waterresource for irrigated agriculture, urban

water needs and hydro-electric powergeneration.88

At the start of the 20th century thecombined storage capacity of all large dams

was 250 GL. This grew to 9,540 GL by 1950

and 83,853 GL in 2005.89

Australia's 500large dams have a total capacity equivalentto 4,000 kilolitres (kL) per person.

Total storage capacity of large

dams

1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005

'000 GL

0

20

40

60

80

100

Note: A large dam is defined as having a height of greater than

15 metres (m), or as greater than 10 m but meeting other size

criteria.

Source: ABS, 2006, Water Account Australia 200405 (cat. no.

4610.0).

In addition, there are many thousands offarm dams throughout Australia. Australiashigh per capita storage capacity is neededto sustain agricultural production and

potable water supplies for human useduring long dry periods.


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Large dam storage levels

Jun2001

Dec Jun2002

Dec Jun2003

Dec Jun2004

Dec Jun2005

% total capacity

0

20

40

60

80

100

Source: ABS,2006, Water Account Australia 200405 (cat. no.

4610.0).

Drought conditions were reflected in an

18% fall in the water stored in large dams

between 2002 and 2005. On 1 July 2002,storage levels were at 48,683 GL, falling to

39,959 GL by 30 June 2005.90

Comprehensive current data for all of

Australia is not available. However, total

public storage in the Murray-Darling Basin

at the end of October 2009 was only 6,450

GL, or 28% of capacity.91

Water management on farms

Australias agriculture industry is

particularly dependent on irrigation water

to sustain production. Whilst most

agricultural water is used for irrigation of

crops and pasture, water is also used for

livestock drinking and washing down dairy

sheds.

In 200405, a third of all farms carried out

water-related management activities,

spending a total of $314 million in that

year.92

The most commonly reported water

management activities were: earthworks,drains and water pumping; tree and shrub

maintenance; and removing stock from

waterways.93

Water issues included surface and

groundwater availability, excess nutrients,

clarity, toxicity and others. Of these, water

availability was the water issue most

frequently reported by farmers.94

Farms identifying water issues and water activities, 200405


%

0

20

40

60Issues

Activities

Source: ABS,2007, Natural Resource Management on Australian Farms 200405 (cat. no. 4620.0).

Expenditure by the agriculture industry for water management, 200405NSW Vic. Qld SA WA Tas. NT ACT Aust.

Total expenditure

($million)

128 ^51 ^85 ^18 25 ^5 *1 ^ 314

Average expenditureper farm ($)

9,501 ^5,151 9,241 4,836 5,095 3,833 *18,474 ^3,405 7,351

^Estimate has a relative standard error of 10% to less than 25% and should be used with caution.

* Estimate has a relative standard error of 25% to less than 50% and should be used with caution.Source: ABS,2007, Natural Resource Management on Australian Farms 200405 (cat. no. 4620.0).


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Household water use and

conservation

After years of low rainfall, Australianhouseholds are adapting to reduced wateravailability. Over the period 200001 to200405, household water use per personfell 14%, from 120 kL to 103 kL. Tasmania

was the only state to record an increase.99

Decreased household use reflects waterrestrictions in most states and territoriessince 2002, government incentives toreduce water use and improve water useefficiency, and voluntary conservation of

water by households.

Household water consumption perperson

NSW

Vic.

Qld

SA

WA(a)

Tas.

NT

ACTAust.

0 55 110 165 220

kL/capita

200001

200405

(a) Includes unlicensed water use from garden bores.

Source: ABS,2006, Water Account Australia 200405 (cat. no.

4610.0).

From 1994 to 2007, the proportion ofhouseholds with water conservation devicesmore than doubled.100

Households with water

conservation devices

Water efficient

shower head

Dual flush toilet

%

0

20

40

60

80

100 199420012007

Source: ABS, 2007, Environmental Issues: Peoples Views and

Practices March 2007 (cat. no.4602.0).

Whilst mains/town water is overwhelmingly

the principal source of water for Australianhouseholds, (93% connected in March2007), households are reducing theirreliance on mains water by increasing theiruse of grey water and rainwater tanks.101

Rainwater tanks as a source of

water for households

1994 1998 2001 2004 2007

%

0

5

10

15

20

Source: ABS,2007, Environmental Issues: Peoples Views and

Practices March 2007 (cat. no.4602.0).

In 2007, nearly one-fifth (19%) of allhouseholds sourced water from a rainwatertank, up from 16% in 2001.102


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Agriculture

Agriculture is an important part of theAustralian economy. In 200708, the grossvalue of agricultural production was $43.3billion103 and in 200809, 318,000 people

were employed in the agricultureindustry.104

Australia's agricultural businesses areengaged mainly in beef cattle farming, dairycattle farming, sheep farming, graingrowing, or a mixture of two or more ofthese activities. Farm exports account foraround 15% of total merchandiseexports,105 with products such as beef,

wheat, and skim milk powder contributingsignificantly to global markets.

Gross value of agricultural commodities produced, 200708

Cattle and calves

Wheat for grainWhole milk

Vegetables

Crops for hay

Fruit and Nuts

Wool

Barley for grain

Sheep and lambs

Grapes

Poultry

Nurseries

Sorghum for grain

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

$m Source: ABS, 2009, Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced, Australia 200708 (cat. no. 7503.0).

Climate change is likely to affect agriculturein a number of ways:

changes in rainfall and temperaturewill affect crop production;

changes in the quantity and qualityof pasture as well as temperatureincreases will affect the productivityof the livestock industries;

severe weather events (e.g.bushfires and flooding) will affect

crop yields and stock; changes in temperature are

expected to alter the incidence andoccurrence of pests and disease;and

where there is adequate moisture,increased concentrations of CO2

will increase growth in someplants.106

Many Australian farmers are already takingactions to adapt to what they perceive as a

changing climate. In 200607, 66% ofAustralian agricultural businesses reportedthat the climate affecting their holding had

changed and of this group 75% reportedthat they had changed managementpractices as a result of this perceivedchange.107

The most commonly reported perceivedchange in climate affecting the holding wasa change in rainfall patterns (92%) followedby more extreme weather events (74%) and

warmer temperatures (50%).108

The most commonly reported impact onthe holding was a decreased level ofproduction (89%) followed by an increasedfrequency or extent of pests, weeds ordisease (56%).

In contrast, a small proportion ofagricultural businesses reported adecreased frequency or extent of pests,

weeds or disease (20%) and an increasedlevel of production (15%).109


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Agricultural water use on Australian

farms

Australia NSW/ACT Vic. Qld SA WA Tas.

GL

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

2005-06

2006-072007-08

Note: Northern Territory data too small to display.Source: ABS, 2008; 2008; 2009, Water Use on Australian

Farms 200506; 200607; 200708 (cat. no. 4618.0)

From 200506 to 20078, agricultural wateruse on Australian farms fell 40% (from11,689 GL to 6,989 GL) due to thecontinuing unavailability of water as aresult of the drought. The largest declinesoccurred in NSW (61%), Victoria (44%) andQueensland (21%).110

Gross value of irrigated agricultural

production, selected products

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

$m

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000Fruit and nutsVegetablesNurseriesCotton

Note: Year refers to financial year eg. 2001 refers to 2000-01.

Source: ABS, 2009, Experimental Estimates of the Gross Valueof Irrigated Agricultural Production, 200001 to 200607 (cat.

no. 4610.0.55.008).In 200607, irrigated agricultural landcomprised less than 0.5% of all agricultural

land in Australia, yet the gross value ofirrigated agricultural production (GVIAP)

was $12,319 million. This represented 34%of the total gross value of agriculturalproduction, up from 28% in 200001.111

The GVIAPgenerated for each megalitre ofwater applied (GVIAP/ML) can varysignificantly between different agriculturalactivities and over time. The productgroups with the highest GVIAP/ML in 200607 were: nurseries, cut flowers andcultivated turf, ($16,470), vegetables($6,104), and fruit and nuts ($4,493). Theproduct with the lowest GVIAP/ML was rice

($230).112 Reductions in water availabilitycould see a decline in low GVIAP/MLactivities to higher ones.

GVIAP per megalitre of waterapplied, selected products

Nurseries (a)

Vegetables (b)

Fruit and nuts

Grapes

Dairy

Sugar cane

Cotton

Rice

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

GVIAP/ML

2002-032006-07

(a) Nurseries cut flowers and cultivated turf.(b) Vegetables for human consumption or seed.Source: ABS, 2009, Experimental Estimates of the Gross Value of

Irrigated Agricultural Production, 200001 to 200607 (cat no.

4610.0.55.008).Murray-Darling Basin

The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) coversaround 14% of Australias land area113 and isof special importance to Australiasagricultural production. In 200506, thegross value of agricultural production(GVAP) in the Basin was worth $15 billionor 39% of Australias total GVAP ($38.5

billion).114

Agriculture dominates land use in theBasin. In 2006, 10% of the peopleemployed in the Basin worked inagriculture, compared to only 3% Australia

wide.115

Industries (including agriculture) andhouseholds in the MDB accounted for justover half (52%) of Australias total waterconsumption in 200405. In terms ofagricultural water consumption, the MDB iseven more dominant. In 200506 the MDB

used two-thirds (66%) of Australias totalagricultural water consumption.116

Irrigated agriculture in the MDB generated$4.6 billion or 44% of Australias gross

value of irrigated agricultural production in200506. Dairy farming generated $938million, fruit and nuts $898 million, cotton$797 million and grapes $722 million.117

Irrigated agriculture in the MDB is one areafor which the impacts of climate change areanticipated to be large. Lower averagerainfall and higher average temperatures

are expected to significantly reduce wateravailability in the Basin, impacting on crop


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The Great Barrier ReefThe Great Barrier Reef is among the largest and most

spectacular coral reef ecosystems in the world. A World

Heritage Area, it is home to many organisms including

six species of marine turtles, 24 species of seabirds,more than 30 species of marine mammals, 350 coral

species, 4000 species of molluscs and 1500 fish

species. Coral reefs are highly vulnerable to human-

induced climate change.

Over the last 30 years, the waters of the Great Barrier

Reef have increased in temperature by 0.4C. This has

made the Reef more susceptible to heat stress duringshort periods of warm sea temperature. As a result,

episodes of mass coral bleaching have increased in

frequency and intensity.

Over the last 25 years, heat stress has resulted in six

episodes of coral bleaching within the Reef. In 1998,

50% of the coral reefs within the Great Barrier Reef

Marine Park were affected by coral bleaching and in2002, another mass coral bleaching event affected 60%

of the coral reefs. About 5 to 10% of the corals affected

during these events died.

Ocean chemistry has also been affected by climate

change. Ocean pH has decreased by 0.1, that is, theocean is becoming more acidic. As CO2 concentrations

increase in the atmosphere, increased amounts of CO2

enter the ocean where it combines with water to produce

a weak acid which limits the rate of coral growth. While

the impacts of ocean acidification are not yet fullyunderstood, there is consensus that ocean acidification

poses a serious threat to coral reefs.

Increasing water temperatures and ocean acidity are

putting this unique ecosystem at risk. Even with effective

mitigation, it is expected that, by 2100, mass coral

bleaching will be twice as common as it is today. Withoutmitigation, by 2100, the Great Barrier Reef will be

destroyed.

Damage to or destruction of the Great Barrier Reef will

have serious implications for the Queensland economy.

Tourism is an important part of Queenslands economy

and a substantial proportion of tourism in Queensland isrelated to the existence of the Great Barrier Reef. It is

estimated that the reef interested tourism economy

contributes more than $2 billion each year to

Queenslands Gross State Product. Tourism in theTropical North region is particularly dependant on the

reef with over 90% of interstate and international visitor

nights associated with interest in the reef.

Source: Hoegh-Guldberg, O, and Hoegh-Guldberg, H, 2008,Garnaut Climate Change Review: The impact of climate change

and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist

industry.

Eco-tourism

Australias natural landscapes underpinmuch of Australias international anddomestic tourism.

Each year, millions of domestic andinternational visitors in Australia participatein nature activities such as:

visiting national parks, wildlifeparks, zoos, aquariums, botanicalgardens and public gardens;

bushwalking; whale and dolphin watching; and snorkelling and scuba diving.125

Total expenditure by domestic visitors whoparticipated in nature activities wasapproximately $12 billion in 2008.126

Two-thirds (65%) of the 3.36 millioninternational visitors to Australia in 2008participated in nature activities. These

visitors spent $20.2 billion.127

Number of visitors who participated

in nature activities, 2004 to 2008

2004 2006 2008

Domestic overnight

No. of visitors (million) 12.62 13.15 12.94Share of total (%) 17 18 18

Domestic dayNo. of visitors (million) 11.01 12.44 12.37

Share of total (%) 8 9 9

International

No. of visitors (million) 3.02 3.43 3.36Share of total (%) 63 67 65

Source: Tourism Research Australia, 2009, Nature Tourism in

Australia 2008.

Some natural attractions would besignificantly affected by unmitigated climatechange, particularly the Great Barrier Reef.

More generally, beaches are in danger ofincreasing storm damage and inundation.Ski fields will suffer from reductions insnow cover, average season lengths andpeak snow depths.128

Popular tourist destinations may becomeless appealing if they face climate changerelated impacts such as increased incidenceof bushfires, increased ultraviolet radiation,increased exposure to disease andincreased extreme weather events (e.g.flooding, storm surges, heatwaves, cyclones

and droughts). Climate change is alsoexpected to lead to increased costsassociated with increased need forrepair,


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tourist infrastructure as well asdevelopment of alternative attractions.129

Coastal settlements

Australias coastal zone is a significantnational environmental asset that is also

fundamentally important to our lifestyle

and economy.

House of Representatives Standing

Committee on Climate Change, Water,

Environment and the Arts.130

Coastal communities, their infrastructureand resources are vulnerable to a numberof climate change impacts.Sea level rise is likely to result in:

increased risk of inundation duringstorm surges; increased coastal erosion and

recession;

loss of wetlands and mangrovessaltwater intrusion into freshwatersources; and

loss of wetlands.131

Extreme weather events will also impactupon coastal areas. For example tropicalcyclones are expected to become moreintense in northern Australia.132

The majority of Australians (over 80%) livewithin the coastal zone. About 711,000addresses are within three kilometres of thecoast and less than six metres above sealevel,133 and coastal settlements arecontinuing to grow. In 200708, outsidecapital cities, the largest population growthgenerally occurred along the Australiancoast. Several local government areas onthe Queensland coast had large populationincreases, such as the Gold Coast (up13,000 people), Sunshine Coast (9,000),

Cairns (6,000) and Townsville (5,000).134

Other coastal centres experiencing rapidgrowth included Seaside Tweed in NSW,Mandurah and Busselton in Western

Australia and Victor Harbour in SouthAustralia. Areas of population declineoccurred mainly in inland rural areas.

Population density, Australia, June 2008

Source: ABS, 2009, Regional Population Growth Australia 200708 (cat. no. 3218.0).

People per sq km

100.0 or more

10.0 to 100.0

1.0 to 10.0

0.1 to 1.0

Less than 0.1

Kilometres

0 1000


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Human health

Climate change is a significant andemerging threat to public health, and

changes the way we must look at protectingvulnerable populationsWorld Health Organisation.135

In Australia, some health impactsattributable to climate change will be direct,such as death and disease associated withheatwaves and natural disasters. Others willoccur indirectly, such as increases inmosquito borne diseases due to changes inmosquito population range and activity.136

Climate change will also impact upon food,

water and air quality, which are the mostfundamental determinants of health.137

Australians most at risk

Some communities in Australia are morevulnerable to climate change than others.This reflects differences in exposure to risksas well as adaptive capacity. People living inremote areas, people on lower incomes,those with poor housing, the elderly and thesick are among the most vulnerable.138

Torres Strait islanders and remote

indigenous communities are particularlyvulnerable because of their relative isolationand limited access to support facilities.139

Climate change is expected to result insubstantial increases in extreme hot weather.If no attempt is made to mitigate climatechange, by 2100 the number of days over35C each year is projected to rise from 9 to27 in Melbourne, 1 to 21 in Brisbane andmost dramatically from 9 to 312 inDarwin.140

Extreme hot weather has serious impacts onhealth, including heat-related deaths fromheatwaves. The IPCC projects increasedfrequency of heatwaves over this century asvery likely, with an associated increasedrisk of heat related deaths.141

Climate change and healthIn 2008, the Garnaut Review identified the main health

risks climate changes poses in Australia. The risks are

many and varied and include:

impacts of severe weather events (floods, storms,cyclones);

impacts of temperature extremes, includingheatwaves;

mosquito-borne infectious diseases (e.g. dengue andRoss River virus);

food-

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