AU/NEPAD’S COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT ... · PDF fileau/nepad’s...
Transcript of AU/NEPAD’S COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT ... · PDF fileau/nepad’s...
Thursday, October 19, 2006
AU/NEPAD’S COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
AN AGENDA FOR GROWTH
OUSMANE BADIANEAfrica Coordinator
Research Advisor to NEPADInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Page 2SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA
• AGRICULTURAL GROWTH DRIVES OVERALL INCOME GROWTH IN RURAL AREAS
• AGRICULTURAL GROWTH DRIVES GROWTH IN OTHER SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY
• AGRICULTURAL GROWTH REDUCES OVERALL POVERTY, HUNGER, AND MALNUTRITION MORE THAN ANY OTHER SECTOR
Page 3SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
FASTER AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS KEY TO POVERTY REDUCTION IN AFRICA
• THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO REDUCE POVERTY IS TO RAISE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF RESOURCES THAT POOR PEOPLE DEPEND ON FOR THEIR LIVELIHOOD
• AGRICULTURAL LAND
• AGRICULTURAL LABOR
• OFF-FARM RURAL LABOR
Page 4SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
REACHING MDGs IN AFRICAREQUIRES FASTER AGRICULTURAL GROWTH
• ULTIMATE OUTCOME UNDER MDGs: • ELIMINATE POVERTY AND MALNUTRITION• THROUGH FASTER HUMAN/ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• INTERLINKAGES AMONG GOALS• POOR AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE• HUNGER/MALNUTRTION• HIGHER VULNERABILITY TO DISEASE• LOWER EDUCATION OUTCOMES• OVERALL ECONOMIC STAGNATION• LOW CAPACITY TO INVEST IN AGRICULTURAL GROWTH• CONTINUED SOIL MINING AND RESOURCES DEGRADATION
Page 5SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL GROWTHON OVERALL RURAL INCOMES
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Niger Senegal Zambia BurkinaFaso
Incremental income from 1$ additional revenue from agricultural tradablesSource: C. Delgado et al (1998)
Page 6SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
AGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTHAGR. EXPORT AND DOMESTIC GROWTH
INDUST. GROWTH
EXPORT GROWTH
0.04%To
1.83%
1%Growth
Page 7SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
AGR. GROWTH AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH
AGRIC. GROWTH
INDUST. GROWTH
1%To
1.32%
1%Growth
Page 8SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
LOW AGRICULTURAL INCOMES ARE GENERALLY CORRELATED WITH HIGH POVERTY RATES
Eth
iopi
a
Tanz
ania
Mad
agas
car
Ken
ya
Bur
undi
Con
go, D
R
Rw
anda
Uga
nda
R2 = 70%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
20 40 60 80 100National Poverty Rates (various years)
Per C
apita
Ag
GD
P (U
S$/p
erso
n), 2
002
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Africa 1961 - 2004
80859095
100105110115
Ye a r
Agriculture (PIN)SSA NET PER CAPITA PRODUCTION INDEX 1961 – 2004
EXCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA
POSSIBLE AGRICULTURAL RECOVERY?
1961 1985 2004
100
85
Page 10SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE CURRENT PERFORMANCE IS FAR FROM BEING SUFFICIENTCEREAL YIELDS (1961-2004)
Page 11SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE EMERGING TRENDS ARE UNACCEPTABLE
2025
-12.4
-23.26
-35.66-29.5
-40.34
-69.84-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
SSA North Africa All Africa
1,00
0,00
0 T
1997 2025 19971997 2025
NET CERALS TRADE
Page 12SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE EMERGING TRENDS ARE UNACCEPTABLE
DAILY CALORIC CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA IN SSA (ONLY +10%)
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
1997 2015 2025
Page 13SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE EMERGING TRENDS ARE UNACCEPTABLE
NUMBER OF MALNOURISHED CHILDREN IN SSA (> 20 Mill.)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 2015 2025
Page 14SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE EMERGING TRENDS ARE UNACCEPTABLE
SHARE OF MALNOURISHED CHILDREN IN SSA (> 28%)
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
1997 2015 2025
Page 15SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CURRENT TRENDS COULD BE REVERSED:AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
VARIABLESINTERMEDIATE OBJECTIVES
FOR 2025 HORIZON
INCREASE IN AVERAGE YIELDS 50 % > CURRENT TRENDS
INCREASE IN LIVESTOCK NUMBERS 50 % > CURRENT TRENDS
POPULATION LOW UN SCENARIO
GDP GROWTH 6,5 % FOR NIGERIA8 % FOR THE REST OF AFRICA
FEMALE ACCESS TO SECONDARY SCHOOLING
90 %
ACCESS TO CLEAN WATER 95%
FEMALE TO MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY RATIO 2 % > CURRENT TRENDS
Page 16SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IS POSSIBLE
2231 2377 25262231
2926
3455
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1997 2015 2025 1997 2015 2025
CONSUMPTION LEVEL: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
kcal
orie
spe
r day
CURRENT TRENDS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
Page 17SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IS POSSIBLE
Share of Malnourished Children in SSA
33 3330
17
28
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Per
cent
1997 2015 2025 1997 2015 2025
CURRENT TRENDS ALTERNTIVE SCENARIO
Page 18SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
WHAT ARE THE LESSONS
SUSTAINED AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IS A PRECONDITION TO ACHIEVING ALL MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
DESPITE THE RECENT AGRICULTURAL AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY THE EMERGING TRENDS ARE FAR FROM BEING SUFFICIENT
THEIR CONSEQUENCES IN TERMS OF INCREASE IN POVERTY, FOOD AND NUTRITION INSECURITY ARE INACCEPTABLE
THE CURRENT TRENDS CAN BE RENVERSED, BUT THIS REQUIRES :
INCREASED INVESTMENT AND A GREATER EFFECTIVENESS OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
ADEQUATE POLICIES TO IMPROVE NATIONAL SECTOR COMPETITIVENESS IN DOMESTIC, REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
ELIMINATION OF GLOBAL PROTECTIONISM, WHICH WOULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANTCONTRIBUTION TO EFFORTS BY AFRICAN COUNTRIES.
Page 19SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE ROLE AND CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (CAADP)
NEPAD’S VISION FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
“ AGRICULTURE-LED DEVELOPMENTWHICH ELIMINATES HUNGER AND REDUCES
FOOD INSECURITY ”…..
…“ENABLING THE EXPANSION OF EXPORTS AND PUTTING THE CONTINENT ON A HIGHER
PATH OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ”
Page 20SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CAADP AS STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK
MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES
AU PROGRAM: OWNED BY AFRICAN COUNTRIES
OBJECTIVES AND TARGETS SET BY HSG
AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1
TARGET GOAL OF 6% SECTOR GROWTH RATE
INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE)
FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT
POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW, ACCOUNTABILITY
EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES
INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY
Page 21SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE CAADP IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS AND THE DESIRE TO DO BUSINESS DIFFERENTLY
• A CONVICTION THAT AFRICA CAN PERFORM BETTER • A COMMITMENT TO BETTER PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION • A FOCUS ON RESULTS• A COMMON FRAMEWORK FOR LONG TERM ACTION
• THIS IMPLIES THE NEED TO :
• MOVE AWAY FROM TRIAL AND ERRORS AND ETERNAL RECOMMENCEMENT
• AVOID RUSH TOWARDS QUICK ACTIONS AND SHORT TERM GAINS AT THE COST OF SERIOUS RISK OF FAILURE IN THE LONG RUN
• LAY DOWN A SOLID PROCESS THAT ENSURES STEADY AND GRADUAL LONG TERM PROGRESS
IMPLICIT PHILOSOPHY AND PRINCIPLES
Page 22SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
VALUE ADDITION OF THE CAADP PROCESS
SHARED OPERATIONAL FRAMEWORK
ADOPTION OF BEST PRACTICES
MUTUAL LEARNING
BENCHMARKING
ACCESS TO MORE IN/EXTERNAL RESOURCES
POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR POSITIVE CHANGE
Page 23SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CAADP AS A FINANCING STRATEGY
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
$7.0
Bill
ions
(con
stan
t 200
0 U
S$)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Year
ODA ContributionsGovernment Spending $1.7
$4.6
BIL
LIO
N. U
S$
REQUIRED INVESTMENTS BY 2008 TOWARDS MEETING THE MDG GOALS
MAPUTO SPENDING TARGETS
EXTERNAL FUNDING NEEDS
Page 24SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
ARE GOVERNMENTS SERIOUS ABOUT IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MAPUTO COMMITMENT?
% Gvt budget allocation to Agriculture
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%
Burkina FasoMadagascar
ChadMali
MalawiEthiopiaGuineaZambia
Cote d'IvoireCameroon
SenegalBenin
Gambia, TheNigeriaKenya
ZimbabweTanzania
UgandaNiger
RwandaBurundi
Guinea-BissauGhana
Mozambique
Maputo Declaration for 2008
AGRICULTURE EXPENDITURE SHARES
Page 25SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CAADP AS A PLANNING TOOL
CAADP’S MAIN INVESTMENT PILLARS
LAND MANAGEMENT AND WATER CONTROL
RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND MARKET ACCESS
INCREASING FOOD SUPPLYREDUCING HUNGER
RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGYDISSEMINATION / ADOPTION
Page 26SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CAADP INVESTMENT AND POLICY PRIORITY AREAS
SMALL & LARGESCALE IRRIGATION
MANAGEMENT &DEVELOPMENT
LAND MANAGEMENTPOLICY ANDCAPACITY
SOIL FERTILITYRESTORATION
& CONSERVATION
GLOBAL TRADE POLICIES ANDAGREEMENTS
EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE
SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENT
QUALITY CONTROL& MANAGEMENT
SYSTEMDEVELOPMENT
FOOD EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
TACKLINGCHRONIC
FOOD INSECURITY
IMPROVEMENT OFNUTRITION
STANDARDS
FAAPAND MAPP
SEED TECHNOLOGYDEVELOPMENT,
ACCESS ANDDISSEMINATION
NARS/SROS CAPACITYBUILDING,
RESEARCH &TRAINING
RESEARCHAND
TECHNOLOGY
HUNGER REDUCTION &SAFETY NETS
INFRASTRUCTUREAND
MARKET ACCESS
LAND MANAGMTAND
WATER CONTROL
Page 27SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CAADP AS A TOOL FORPOLICY DIALOGUE AND REVIEW
CONTINENTALLEVEL TOOLS
REGIONALLEVEL TOOLS
COUNTRY SPECIFIC
• FOCUS ON QUALITY OF POLICIES
• INCLUSIVE DIALOGUE
NATIONAL LEVEL TOOLS
APF
CAADP PP
ADVISORY COUNCIL
SUPPORT GROUP
ReSAKSS
Page 28SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE OBJECTIVES AND CHALLENGE OF IMPLEMENTING THE CAADP AGENDA
CONTINENTAL LEVEL
• ENSURING THE ALIGNMENT OF DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE WITH CAADP OBJECTIVES AND PRINCIPLES
• SECURING COMMITMENT BY NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS TO WORK WITH PARTNERS AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO MEET THE REQUIRED LEVEL OF INVESTMENTS
• POLICY DIALOGUE AND REVIEW TO IMPROVE SECTOR GOVERNANCE
• ADVOCACY TO KEEP FOCUS ON AGRICULTURE
Page 29SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE OBJECTIVES AND CHALLENGE OF IMPLEMENTING THE CAADP AGENDA
REGIONAL LEVEL
OWNERSHIP AND LEADERSHIP OF THE CAADP IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS BY REGIONAL ECONOMIC COMMUNITIES (RECs)
IDENTIFICATION OF REGIONAL PRIORITIES
ESTABLISHMENT OF COORDINATION AND GOVERNANCE MECHANISMS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL
BUILDING THE CAPACITIES OF RECs TO COORDINATE THE IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS
Page 30SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
IMPLEMENTATION PROGRESS AT REGIONAL LEVEL BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR IMPLEMENTATION AND COORDINATION
• .REGIONAL CAADP FRAMEWORK PROGRAMS (COMES/ECOWAS/ECCAS)
RECs ARE ENGAGING MEMBER COUNTRIES (COMESA / ECOWAS)
PEER REVIEW AND LEARNING SYSTEMS ARE BEING ESTABLISHED
NEW CAPACITY SUPPORT PROGRAM (COMESA/ECOWAS…SADC)
Page 31SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
THE OBJECTIVES AND CHALLENGEOF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION
THE PRINCIPLES OF IMPLEMENTATIONAT THE NATIONAL LEVEL:
• AVOID SETTING UP A NEW PROCESS AND BUILD ON ONGOING EFFORTS AT NATIONAL LEVEL
• ALIGNING NATIONAL EFFORTS WITH THE CAADP GROWTH, BUDGETARY, FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY OBJECTIVES
• ADD VALUE TO NATIONAL EFFORTS WHERE NEEDED
NATIONAL LEVEL
Page 32SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
ACCELERATING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP AT NATIONAL LEVEL
COMPONENTS OF THE NATIONAL PROCESS
STOCK TAKING AND ALIGNMENT OF NATIONAL EFFORTS
CONSTRUCTION OF PARTNERSHIPS AND ALLIANCES TO SUPPORT EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP AGENDA AT COUNTRY LEVEL
AGRICULTURAL BUDGET AND EXPENDITURE REVIEWS TO INCREASE THE LEVEL AND EFFECTIVENESS OF FUNDIUNG FOR THE SECTOR
OGRANIZATION OF COUNTRY ROUND TABLES TO LAUNCH ANDCOORDINATE THE ACCELERATION PROCESS
Page 33SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
COUNTRY CAAPD ROUND TABLE AND CAADP COMPACT
1. MAKE SURE THAT THE COUNTRY IS ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE THE CAADP GROWTH AND BUDGETARY OBJECTIVES, IF NOT
2. IDENTIFY EVENTUAL GAPS IN TERMS OF SECTOR POLICY, BUDGETARY, AND INVESTMENT MEASURES
OBJECTIVE OF ROUND TABLES
ELABORATION OF A COUNTRY CAADP COMPACT TO GUIDE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP IN THE LONG TERM , INCLUDING:
1. COMMITMENTS IN TERMS OF SECTOR POLICIES, PUBLICEXPENDITURES, AND DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
2. ESTABLISHEMENT OF PARTNERSHIPS AND ALLIANCES FOR SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION OF CAADP
3. CREATION OF A MECHANISM FOR PEER REVIEW AND DIALOGUETO TRACK IMPEMENTATION PERFORMANCE AND THE PROGRESSIN MEETING THE AGREED ON COMMITEMENTS
OUTCOMES OF ROUND TABLES:CAADP COMPACT
Page 34SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
ORGANISATION OF COUNTRY ROUND TABLES
TIMETABLE FOR LAUNCHING COUNTRY ROUND TABLE PROCESS IN ECOWAS REGION
DATES
Country Groups1.Group 1: Cape Verde, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria2.Group 2: Benin, Burkina Faso, Liberia, Senegal, Togo3.Group 3: Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau
1.By August 20062.By December 20063.By March 2007
TIMETABLE FOR LAUNCHING COUNTRY ROUND TABLE PROCESS IN COMESA REGION
DATES
Country Groups1.Group 1: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia2.Group 2: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Madagascar, Mauritius,
Swaziland3. Group 3: Comoros, DR Congo, Seychelles, Sudan, Egypt,
Zimbabwe, Libya
1.By August 20062.By December 20063.By March 2007