Aum Shinrikyo’s Failed Strategic Subculture

ALEX BURNS (ALEX@ALEXBURNS.NET)

SPS SYMPOSIUM, 29TH OCTOBER 2014

PHD CANDIDATE, SCHOOL OF POLITICS & SOCIAL INQUIRY, MONASH UNIVERSITY

2014 PhD Milestones

International Studies Association roundtable ‘Strategic Culture Is Dead; Long Live Strategic Culture: New Directions in Research’, 27th March 2014, Toronto, Canada

Co-authored Contemporary Security Policy article ‘Australia’s Strategic Culture: Constraints and Opportunities in Security Policy Making’ (with Deakin University’s Ben Eltham)

East-West Center in Washington DC invited presentation as part of ‘Asian Responses to Perceptions of Asia-Pacific Strategic Cultures’, 16th October 2014 (delivered by Wooster College’s Jeffrey S. Lantis)

Strategic Culture Defined: Jack Snyder

Formulated in 1977 by Jack Snyder for a RAND monograph on Ford and Carter administration détente and the Soviet Union

“Individuals are socialized into a distinctly Soviet mode of thinking . . . a set of general beliefs, attitudes and behavioral patterns . . . that places them on the level of “culture” rather than mere “policy” . . .” [emphasis added] (Snyder 1977: v)

“Culture is perpetuated not only by individuals but also by organizations.” (Snyder 1977: 9).

“Strategic subculture: . . . a subsection of the broader strategic community . . . Reasonably distinct beliefs and attitudes.” (Snyder 1977: 10).

Aum Shinrikyo as Strategic Subculture

Decision elite Aum’s senior leadership attempted to model Japanese continuity of government protocols

Initiatory / religious and entrepreneurial / shell company sub-systems / socialisation Asahara’s deity yoga experience at age 30 in 1985 (Lifton: 20)

Asahara’s synthesis of Hindu Tantra, Tibetan Buddhist, Christian evangelical and Nostradamus / New Age beliefs → Aum’s initiatory / religious doctrines, rituals, and practices

Front-companies used for R&D, weapons acquisition, and media / propaganda campaigns

Compartmentalised program to develop chemical / biological weapons Greater emphasis after Aum’s political campaign failure in 1990 Japanese Diet elections

20th March 1995 sarin gas attack on Tokyo subway system

Program was relatively unsuccessful / over-hyped (Milton Leitenberg)

Program validated the rise of ‘new terrorism’ experts (Lisa Stampnitzky)

Research Methodology

Primary research methodology Causation coding (Johnny Saldana 163-165) to identify decision pathway of Aum

renunciates

Narrative / thematic coding (Catherine Kohler Riessman; Kathleen MacQueen; Leonard Webster) for strategic subculture narrative arcs, symbols, and themes

Other theoretical / methodological perspectives considered Counterfactuals (political scientist Richard Ned Lebow)

Genius and creativity research on leaders (psychologist Dean Keith Simonton)

Micro-sociology of violence / interaction rituals (sociologist Randall Collins)

Microfoundations of social science (philosopher Daniel Little)

Narrative therapy and social construction (psychotherapist Michael White)

Political psychology study of leadership (psychologist Jerrold M. Post)

Robert Jay Lifton

Psychohistorian and ‘thought reform’ theory (1961)

Psychobiographer of Aum founder Shoko Asahara Lifton diagnoses functional megalomania in Asahara

Charismatic religious gurus (Anthony Storr)

Southeast Asian deity experiences (Frederick M. Smith)

Macrofoundations model of apocalyptic violence Builds on Lifton’s earlier psychohistorical studies

Comparable to Walter Laqueur’s ‘new terrorism’ thesis

Branch Davidians at Waco; Timothy McVeigh and Oklahoma City bombing; Heavens Gate; and Charles Manson / Jim Jones

Aum as a “phantom cell – a few hundred hidden activists seeking to destroy the world” (Lifton 340)

Haruki Murakami

Japanese novelist influenced by United States historian Studs Terkel – oral history approach to interviews

In 1996, Murakami interviewed 60 victims of the 1995 sarin gas attack, and 8 current and mid-level / low-level Aum renunciates Personal, subjective experience of Shoko Asahara as guru

Microfoundations viewpoint on initiatory / religious sub-system

Reactions to discovery of Aum’s compartmentalised biological and chemical weapons development program

Aum as a reflection of the darker undercurrents of contemporary Japanese society Aum renunciate experience with psychosocial pressures

Pre-World War II Manchuria analogy (Murakami 360-361)

Case Study Provisional Findings

Strategic subculture explanation emphasises new dynamics Spillover effects from Christian evangelical and Occulture cultural transmission

Mirror-imaging (Robert Jervis) with United States: Asahara and Reagan Administration SDI program’s interest in laser and other new weapons development systems

Links to Japanese military history (Unit 731) and Tibet’s fragmentation age (Jacob P. Dalton)

Murakami’s data suggests a microfoundations model of strategic culture Individual subjective experience of strategic culture / subcultures

Aum Shinrikyo failed as a strategic subculture Most of the decision elite / senior leadership were jailed after 1995 Tokyo sarin gas attack

Lack of organisational coherence over time → successors Aleph and Hikari no Wa (Erica Baffelli)

Asahara’s personal synthesis unravelled and missed counterfactual opportunities

Discussion