August 151 Financial Statement Analysis. [email protected] August 152 Financial Statement Analysis...

Apr 19, 20231

Financial Statement Analysis

www.edbodmer.com [email protected] 19, 20232

Financial Statement Analysis Contents

• Overview and objective of financial statement analysis

• Review and Re-formatting Statements for Financial Analysis

Income Statement – EBITDA and NOPLAT

Cash Flow Statement - Free Cash Flow and Equity Cash Flow

• Financial ratio analysis

Management Performance

Valuation

Credit Analysis

Financial Model Drivers

• Reference Slides

Financial Ratio Calculations

Discussion of Economic Profit


Financial Statement Analysis - Introduction

• Financial Statement Analysis should tell a story about the company – How profitable is the company, what are the trends, how much risk is there etc.

• You should be comfortable in reading various different financial statements to be effective at financial modeling and financial analysis.

• Financial statement analysis is also important in:

Assessing management performance of a company and whether projections of improvement or sustainability are reasonable.

Assessing the value of a company from historic performance.

Assessing the reasonableness of financial projections provided by a company or the validity of earnings projections

Assessing whether the financial structure of a company is of investment grade quality


Objectives of Financial Statement Analysis

• Financial statement analysis is like detective work – How can we use information in financial statements to make assessments of various issues. The financials should paint a picture of what has happened to the company:

How can we quickly review the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement to determine how the stock market value of a company compares to inherent value.

How can we look the financial statements and assess risks associated with a company and whether the company has sufficient cash flow to pay off debt.

Finance and valuation are about projecting the future -- how can financial statement analysis be used in making projections.

The problem in any financial analysis and valuation is that measuring risk is very difficult


Double Counting and Judgments in Financial Ratio Analysis

• In analyzing financial statements judgments must be made in computing key data such as EBITDA and in developing financial ratios.

• Examples

Whether or not to include Other Income in EBITDA

o If other income not in EBITDA, then should not add non-consolidated subsidiary companies in invested capital

Exploration Expenses taken out of EBITDA

o Make consistent between companies with different accounting policies

Goodwill (ROIC with or without goodwill depending on analysis issue)

Minority Interest (if include or exclude do for both income and balance)

o Total of minority interest is in EBITDA, therefore must include financing of minority interest in invested capital

• A key principle is that the financial data and the financial ratios are consistent and logical – work through simple examples

Apr 19, 20236

Income Statement


Income Statement

• Review trends in EBITDA, EBIT, EBT and Net Income and explain what is happening to the company

• EBITDA includes operating earnings and other income, but it does not include foreign exchange gains or losses, minority interest, extraordinary income or interest income.

EBITDA is a rough proxy for free cash flow

EBITDA is not generally shown on Income Statement

Potential Adjustments for items such as exploration expense

Compare EBIT to Net Assets and Net Capital

• Ratio of EBITDA to Revenues should be shown for historic and projected periods

• EBITDA is related to un-levered cash flow while Net Income and EPS are after leverage

• NOPLAT is computed by EBIT less adjusted taxes, where taxes are computed through adjusting income taxes.


Standard Computation of EBITDA


Problems with EBITDA

• EBITDA is useful in its simplicity, and can be a good reference for comparison of debt and value, but it has weaknesses:

EBIT is more important than DA, because must use cash for replacing depreciation and amoritsation

In credit analysis, EBITDA works better for low rated credits than high rated credits. (Moody’s)

EBITDA is a better measure for companies with long-lived assets

EBITDA can be manipulated through accounting policies (operating expenses versus capital expenditures)

EBITDA ignores changes in working capital, does not consider required re-investment, says nothing about the quality of earnings, and it ignores unique attributes of industries.


Simplified Income Statement

• Sales- COGS

• = Gross Margin- SG&A- Other Expenses

• + Other Income

• = EBITDA

• - Depreciation and Amortization

• = EBIT

• - Interest Expense (income)

• = EBT- Income Taxes

• - Minority Interest

• = Net Income

NOPLAT = EBIT x (1-tax rate)

NOPLAT = Net Income + Interest Expense x (1-tax)

There is a debate about how to handle other income from non-consolidated subsidiary companies.

One school of thought (McKinsey) is that they should be valued separately since they will have different cost of capital etc.

In this case, do not include in EBITDA and remove the asset balance from the invested capital. Must be consistent


Analysis of Income Statement – Computation of EBITDA, Minority Interest, Preferred Dividends, Exploration Expense


Income Statement Analysis

• Example of Adjustments to EBITDA

Exploration Expenses (EBITDAX)

Rental and Lease Payments (EBITDR)

• EBITDA Computation

Top Down – move other income

Bottom-up (Indirect)

• EBITDA Notes

Interest Income out of EBITDA

Interest Expense not in EBITDA

Understand Non-cash Expenses

o Deferred Mining Costs

o Equity Income

o Minority Interest


Discounted Cash Flow Analysis – Real World Example

• Credit Suisse First Boston estimated the present value of the stand-alone, Unlevered, after-tax free cash flows that Texaco could produce over calendar years 2001 through 2004 and that Chevron could produce over the same period. The analysis was based on estimates of the managements of Texaco and Chevron adjusted, as reviewed by or discussed with Texaco management, to reflect, among other things, differing assumptions about future oil and gas prices.

• Ranges of estimated terminal values were calculated by multiplying estimated calendar year 2004 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and exploration expense, commonly referred to as EBITDAX, by terminal EBITDAX multiples of 6.5x to 7.5x in the case of both Texaco and Chevron.

• The estimated un-levered after-tax free cash flows and estimated terminal values were then discounted to present value using discount rates of 9.0 percent to 10.0 percent.

• That analysis indicated an implied exchange ratio reference range of 0.56x to 0.80x.


Employee Stock Options

• One can debate the treatment of employee stock options for EBITDA, free cash flow and valuation.

• Think of options as giving stock to employees

If the treatment has changed over the years and it is a significant expense, make adjustments to current or prior statements for consistency.

Think of options as giving free shares to employees. The value of existing shareholders is diluted.

o One can argue that this is two things

First, employees are compensated and the cash should be accounted for

Second, invested capital is increased and the new equity should be included in the capital base

Apr 19, 202315

Cash Flow Statement


Cash Flow Statement

• Modern Cash Flow Statement has separation between

Operations

Capital expenditures (to maintain and grow operations) and

Financing

• Operating Cash Flow

Add back items from the income statement that do not use cash (depreciation, dry hole costs etc)

• Analyze how much cash flow the company generated and how it raised funds or disposed funds

• Use Cash Flow statement as a basis to compute free cash flow although cash flow not presented on the statement

• Problem: Interest Expense – related to financing and not operations – is in the Net Income and is included in Cash From Operations


Cash Flow Statement

• A. Operating Cash Flows

• 1) Net Income including interest expense, interest income and taxes

• 2) Depreciation

• 3) Deferred Taxes

• 4) Working Capital Changes

• 5) Minority Interest on Income Statement and Other Items

• B. Investing Cash Flows

• 1) Capital Expenditure and Asset Purchases

• 3) Sale of Property, Plant, & Equipment

• 4) Inter-Corporate Investment

• C. Financing Cash Flows

• 1) Dividend Payments

• 3) Proceeds from Equity or Debt Issuance

• 4) Equity Repurchased

• 5) Debt Principal Payments


Cash Flow Statement Example


The Notion of Free Cash Flow

• In practice the term cash flow has many uses. For example, operating cash flow is net income plus depreciation.

• Free cash flow is the cash flow that is available to investors – FREE of obligations such as capital expenditures and taxes -- to both debt and equity investors – after re-investing in plant, and financing and paying taxes.

• Accountants define cash flow from operations as net income plus depreciation and other non-cash items less changes in working capital. However, this cash flow is not available for distribution to equity holders and debt holders. The free cash flow must account for capital expenditures, repayments of debt, deferred items and other factors.

• Free cash flow consists of

Cash flow to equity holders

Cash flow to debt holders


Theoretical Context – Miller and Modigliani

• Theory that changed finance in 1958

Value assets on fundamental operating characteristics such as the capacity utilisation, the cost and the efficiency of assets and not the manner in which assets are financed – debt versus equity or the manner in which assets are hedged.

This has led to the discounted cash flow model that underlies most valuations

The proof was based on a simple arbitrage idea that you could buy stock in a company that has no debt and then borrow against the stock. This will yield the same results as if the company borrowed money instead of you.

The implication of this is that project finance is irrelevant


Fundamental Distinction in Financial Analysis – Free Cash Flow and Equity Cash Flow

• Free Cash flow that is independent from financing

Valuation

Performance in managing assets

Claims on free cash flow

Cash flow to pay debt obligations

Comparisons unbiased by capital structure policy

• Equity cash flow

Valuation of equity securities

Performance for shareholders


Importance of Free Cash Flow

• Alternative Definitions, but one correct concept

Free Cash Flow Is Also Known As Unleveraged Cash Flow

Unleveraged Cash Flow Is Not Distorted By The Capital Structure

Free Cash Flow should not change when the capital structure changes

Free Cash Flow should be the same as equity cash flow if no debt is outstanding and not cash balances are built up.

• Free Cash Flow in Valuation

PV of Free Cash Flow Defines Enterprise Value

The Relevant Discount Rate Is The Unlevered Discount Rate or the Weighted Average Cost of Capital

IRR on Free Cash Flow is the Project IRR

Free Cash Flow in Economic Value

FCF – Carrying Charge = Economic Profit


Cash Flow Statement in Financial Model

• Analysis in Cash Flow Statements

Compute Cash Flow before Financing

o Operating Cash Flow minus Capital Expenditures

o Use Cash Flow Before Financing in Deriving Free Cash Flow

Equity Cash Flow

o Dividends less Cash Investments

o Cash Flow Before Financing less Maturities plus New Debt Issues

Last Line on Cash Flow Statement Includes

o Change in Cash Balance

o Change in Short-term Debt or Overdrafts

o Beginning Balance + Change = Ending Cash

o Beginning Balance of STD + Change = Ending Short-term Debt


Free Cash Flow Formulas

• Free cash flow can be computed from the income statement or from the cash flow statement.

• From the cash flow statement, the formula is:

Cash Before Financing

Plus: Interest Expense

Less: Tax Shield on Interest

• From the income statement, the formula is:

EBITDA

Less: Taxes on EBIT

Less: Working Capital Investment

Less: Capital Expenditures

• From Net Income

Net Income

Add: Net of Tax Interest

Add Depreciation, Deferred Taxes and Other Non-Cash Changes

Less: Changes in Working Capital


Some argue that free cash flow should not include non-operating items. Here the non-consolidated companies are treated in a similar manner as liquid investments


Free Cash Flow from NOPLAT

• Free cash flow can be computed using the notion of net operating profit less adjusted tax as follows (assuming no extraordinary income)

• Step 1: Compute NOPLAT

Net Income

Plus Net Interest after Tax

Plus Deferred tax

Equals NOPLAT

• Step 2: Compute Free Cash Flow

NOPLAT

Plus: Depreciation

Less: Change in Working Capital


Equals Free Cash Flow


Free Cash Flow Example

In actual situations, must adjust the free cash flow for deferred tax

One could make adjustments for dividends payable, interest payable and other items in the working capital analysis.

Apr 19, 202327

Balance Sheet


Balance Sheet Adjustments

• When analysing the balance sheet, various items should be adjusted and grouped together:

Net Debt

o Total short and long term debt minus liquid investments held and surplus cash

Cash Bucket

o For modelling, subtract short-term debt from surplus cash and liquid investments

Surplus Cash

o Include temporary investments and also include long-term investments

Current Assets and Current Liabilities

o Separate the surplus cash from current assets and the debt from current liabilities and relate remaining working capital items to revenue and expense items


Balance Sheet Issues

• Treat surplus cash as negative debt and debt as negative cash

Rule of thumb – cash is 2% of revenues

Example – when developing a basic cash flow model, group the cash and the debt as one account and then separate this account on the balance sheet.

Unfunded pension expenses should be treated like debt – they involve a fixed obligation and they can be replaced with debt when they are funded.

Deferred taxes depend on the way deferred taxes are modelled for cash flow purposes. If you model future changes in deferred taxes and take account of these in projections, do not put deferred taxes as a component of equity.


Problems with Equity Balance

• Would like the return on equity and the return on invested capital to measure equity invested by shareholders for return on investment and return on equity

Problems with using equity balance on the balance sheet to measure equity investment

o Write-offs of plant

o Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income

o Goodwill

o Re-structuring losses

o Employee Stock options

Can make adjustments to equity balance

Apr 19, 202331

Financial Ratio Analysis


Tension between Equity Analysis and Asset Analysis

• Free Cash Flow

• Project IRR

• ROIC (ROCE)

• WACC

• Enterprise Value

• EV/EBITDA

• Market to Replacement Cost

• Equity Cash Flow

• Equity IRR

• ROE

• Cost of Equity

• Market Capitalisation

• P/E

• Market to Book Ratio

EV = Σ Value of Business Units = Debt + Equity Value

In ratio analysis, cash = negative debt


IRR Mathematics and IRR Exercise

• IRR is simply rate of return

Example: Invest 100 and receive 120 in 1 year

IRR = 120/100 = 120% - 100% = 20%

• If the cash flow is over two years

IRR = -100 , 60 , 60 13.07%

Modified IRR with 5% Re-investment

60 receives 5% in year two 60 x (1.05) = 63

Plus final 60 = 123

MIRR = (123/100)^(1/2) - 1 = 10.9%

Why we raise to a power with two year case

FV = PV (1+r) (1+r)

FV = PV (1+r)2

FV/PV = (1+r)2

(FV/PV)^(1/2) = (1+r)

(FV/PV)^(1/2) – 1 = r


Financial Ratio Analysis

• Purpose :

Evaluate relation between two or more economically important items (one is the starting point for further analysis)

Cautions:

Accounting analysis is important (deferred taxes etc.)

• Interpretation is key

What does the P/E mean

Is an interest coverage of 3.5 good

Why is the ROIC low

Should we use MB, PE or EV/EBITDA

• Document financial ratios (numerator and denominator) with footnotes and comments

• Show components of numerator and denominator in rows above the ratio calculation


• Financial Ratios Often Compares Income Statement or Cash Flow with Balance Sheet

In developing ratios, understand why the formula is developed (e.g. other income and other investments in return on invested capital)

• There is Not Necessarily One Single Correct Formula

For example, pre-tax or after-tax return on assets.

Keep the numerator consistent with the denominator

• Financial Ratios should be evaluated in the context of benchmarks

Credit ratios and bond rating standards

Returns and cost of capital

Operating ratios and history

General Discussion of Financial Ratios


Classes of Financial Ratios

• Management Performance

Ratios that measure the historic economic performance of management and evaluate whether the economic performance can be maintained (e.g. ROIC)

• Valuation

Ratios that are used to give an indication of the value of the company (e.g. P/E)

• Credit Analysis

Ratios that gauge the credit quality and liquidity of the company (e.g. Interest coverage and current ratio)

• Model Evaluation

Ratios used to evaluate the assumptions and mechanics of financial forecasts

Apr 19, 202337

Ratios that Measure Management Performance


• Evaluate Whether Management is Doing a Good Job with Investor Funds (Not if the company is appropriately valued)

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Market/Book Ratio

Market Value/Replacement Cost

• Key Issue

Evaluate relative to risk

o ROE versus Cost of Equity

o ROIC versus WACC

Class 1: Financial Indicators of Management Performance


ROIC, WACC and Growth

• ROIC is before interest and the return covers both debt and equity financing – EBIT is before interest and investment includes both debt and equity investment

• WACC is the blended average of debt and equity required returns

• ROIC versus WACC measures the ability to make true economic profit

• Once have economic profit, should grow the business as much as possible.


Basic Economic Principles, ROIC and Financial Analysis

• When you measure value, you are gauging the ability of a firm to realize economic profit. For example, when you compare the equity IRR with the equity cost of capital.

• When you assess assumptions in a financial forecast, you must assess whether economic profit implicit in the assumptions can in fact be realized. For example, if the financial forecast has a very high ROE, is that reasonable.

• When you interpret financial statistics, you are gauging the strategy of the company in terms of whether economic profit is being realized. In reviewing the return on invested capital, does this demonstrate that the company has the potential to earn economic profit.


Return on Invested Capital Analysis

• ROIC is not distorted by the leverage of the company

• ROIC can be used to gauge economic profit and whether the company should grow operations

• ROIC can be used to assess the reasonableness of projections

For example, if ROIC is very high and the company is in a competitive business with few barriers to entry, the forecast is probably not realistic.

• ROIC can be computed on a division basis EBIT and allocation of capital to divisions from net assets to gauge the profit of parts of the company

• ROIC comes from sustainable competitive advantage and high market share


• The return in invested capital formula can be for a division or an entire corporation. It is after tax and after depreciation. Cash balances should be excluded from the denominator and interest income from the numerator. Goodwill and goodwill amortization should be excluded.

• Formula:

ROIC = EBITAT/Invested Capital

Where:

o EBITAT: Earnings before Interest Taxes and Goodwill Amortization less taxes on EBITAT

o Taxes on EBITAT: Cash Income Taxes Less Tax on Interest Expense and Interest Income and Tax on Non-operating Income

o Invested Capital less cash balance

• Adjustments

Other Assets

Cash Balances

Goodwill

Other

Formula for Return on Invested Capital


Issues in Management Performance Evaluation

• Basic Formula: ROIC versus WACC

How to compute ROIC

o NOPLAT/Average Invested Capital

o May or may not include goodwill – If goodwill is not included, compute NOPLAT without subtracting goodwill write-off and subtract net goodwill from invested capital

o Reduce the invested capital by surplus cash balances

o Some don’t include other income – then the invested capital should be reduced by other investments

o Can compute with ratios

EBIT Margin x (1-t) * Asset Turn

Asset Turn = Sales/Assets; EBIT Margin = EBIT/Sales

ROCE vs ROIC

o ROCE is generally computed in an indirect way by starting with net income, and adding net of tax interest and adding minorities


• Return on average capital employed (ROCE) is a performance measure ratio. From the perspective of the business segments, ROCE is annual business segment earnings divided by average business segment capital employed (average of beginning and end-of-year amounts).

• These segment earnings include ExxonMobil’s share of segment earnings of equity companies, consistent with our capital employed definition, and exclude the cost of financing.

• The corporation’s total ROCE is net income excluding the after-tax cost of financing, divided by total corporate average capital employed. The corporation has consistently applied its ROCE definition for many years and views it as the best measure of historical capital productivity in our capital intensive long-term industry, both to evaluate management’s performance and to demonstrate to shareholders that capital has been used wisely over the long term. Additional measures, which tend to be more cash flow based, are used for future investment decisions.

Exxon Mobil Return on Average Capital Employed


Exxon Mobil Return on Capital Employed – Where are they making expenditures


Exxon Mobil Return on Capital

Return on average capital employed 2005 2004 2003

-millions of dollarsNet income $ 36,130.00 $ 25,330.00 $ 21,510.00Financing costs -after tax

Third-party debt (1.00) (137.00) (69.00)ExxonMobil share of equity companies (144.00) (185.00) (172.00)All other financing costs – net -1 (295.00) 54.00 1,775.00

Total financing costs (440.00) (268.00) 1,534.00

Earnings excluding financing costs $ 36,570.00 $ 25,598.00 $ 19,976.00

Average capital employed $ 116,961.00 $ 107,339.00 $ 95,373.00

Return on average capital employed – corporate total 31.30 23.80 20.90

(1)

“All other financing costs – net” in 2003 includes interest income (after tax) associated with the settlement of a U.S. tax dispute.


Example of ROIC Calculation - AES


Illustration of Invested Capital Computation


ROE and ROIC – Note how to compute growth rates from ROE and Retention


Example of Return on Capital Employed (Return on Invested Capital) in Financial Analysis

•The argument has been made that the best measure to evaluate management performance that is not distorted by leverage (as in the case of ROE) or has the problems of ROA is the return on invested capital. An example of use of this ratio is in the Exxon Mobile Merger:

J.P. Morgan reviewed and analyzed the return on capital employed ("ROCE") of both Exxon and Mobil since 1993. J.P. Morgan observed that Exxon's ROCE has consistently been 2-3% above that of Mobil.

J.P. Morgan's analysis indicated that if Mobil were to be merged with Exxon, the combined entity's capital productivity would eventually be higher than the pro forma capital productivity of Exxon and Mobil.

J.P. Morgan indicated that it would be reasonable to assume that the benefits of this capital productivity increase would occur within three years of the closing of the merger.


Profitability

Gross Margin = Gross profit/ SalesLess: Operating costs/ SalesEquals EBIT Margin (EBIT/ Sales)

Asset Utilization

Working Capital/ SalesPlus:Long-term capital/ SalesEquals:Capital employed/ Sales1 divided by Capital Employed/ SalesEquals: Asset Turnover (Sales/ Capital Employed)

ROCE(EBIT/ Capital Employed )

Multiplied by

Multiplied by (1 minus Tax Rate)

ROCE(EBIT after Tax/ Capital Employed )

Relationship Between Various Ratios and DuPont Analysis


Class 2: Financial Indicators of Market Value

• Financial Ratios can be used to analyze whether the valuation of a company is appropriate. Analysts should understand the drivers of different ratios. Valuation Ratios include:

Universal Financial Ratios

o Price to Earnings Ratio

o Enterprise Value/EBITDA

o PEG (P/E to Earnings Growth) Ratio

o Market to Book Ratio

Industry Specific Financial Ratios

o Value/Reserve

o Value/Customer

o Value/Plane Seat


Valuation Ratios and Benchmarks

• Valuation ratios measure the stock market value of a company relative to some accounting measure such as EPS, EBITDA, Book Value/Share or growth in EPS

• The ratios can be used as benchmarks in valuing non-traded companies by using industry average valuation ratios.

• Example to value non-traded company:

Value of company = EPS of Company x Industry Average P/E Ratio

• Valuation ratios will be further discussed in the portion of the course where corporate models are used to value companies.


• The P/E Ratio is the most prominent valuation ratio. It is affected by estimated earnings growth, the ability of a company to earn economic profits and the growth in profitable operations.

• Formula:

Share Price/Earnings per Share

• Issues

Trailing Twelve Months and Forward Twelve Months – Generally use forward EPS

Formula: (1-g/r)/(k-g)

• Problems

Affected by earnings adjustments

Causes too much focus on EPS

Distortions created by financing

P/E Ratio


Illustration of EV Ratios and Computation of Market Value of Balance Sheet Components


Investment Banker Analysis of Comparable Multiples


Investment Banker Analysis of Multiples


Use of PE in Valuation

• The long-run P/E ratio is often used in valuation. This process involves:

Project EPS

Compute Stable EPS

Compute P/E Ratio using formula

o P/E = (1-g/r)/(k-g)

o g – growth in EPS or Net Income

o r – rate of return earned on equity

o k – cost of equity capital

Related Formula for terminal value with NOPLAT (EBITAT)

o (1-g/ROIC)/(WACC – g)

The formula demonstrates where value really comes from

Apr 19, 202359

Risk Assessment of Debt and Analysis of Credit Spreads


Liquidity and Solvency

Liquidity

Ability to meet short-term obligations

Focus:

• Current Financial conditions

• Current cash flows

• Liquidity of assets

Solvency

Ability to meet long-term obligations Focus:

• Long-term financial conditions

• Long-term cash flows

• Extended profitability

Credit worthiness: Ability to honor credit obligations(downside risk)


Solvency Ratios

• Ratios are the center of traditional credit analysis that assesses whether a company can re-pay loans. These ratios should be compared to benchmarks.

Solvency

o Debt Payback Ratios

Funds from Operations to Total Debt

Debt to EBITDA

o Leverage Ratios

Debt to Capital (Include Short-term Debt)

Market Debt to Market Capital

o Payment Ratios

Interest Coverage

Debt Service Coverage [Cash Flow/(Interest + Principal)]

o Capital Investment Coverage

Operating Cash Flow/Capital Expenditures


Liquidity

• Current Ratio

Current Assets to Current Liabilities

Current Assets less Inventory to Current Liabilities

• Model Working Capital

Current Assets less Cash and Temporary Securities minus Current liabilities less Short-term Debt

• Liquidity Assessment

Debt Profile (Maturities)

Bank Lines (Availability, amount, maturity, covenants, triggers)

Off Balance Sheet Obligations (Guarantees, support, take-or-pay contracts, contingent liabilities)

Alternative Sources of Liquidity (Asset sales, dividend flexibility, capital spending flexibility)


Banks or Rating Agencies Value Debt with Risk Classification Systems

Internal Credit Ratings Code Meaning

Corresponding Moody's

1 A Exceptional Aaa2 B Excellent Aa13 C Strong Aa2/Aa34 D Good A1/A2/A35 E Satisfactory Baa1/Baa2/Baa36 F Adequate Ba17 G Watch List Ba2/Ba38 H Weak B19 I Substandard B2/B3

10 L Doubtful Caa - ON In EliminationS In ConsolidationZ Pending Classification

Map of Internal Ratings to Public Rating Agencies


S&P Ratio Definitions


S&P Benchmarks


Example of Using Ratios to Gauge Credit Rating

• The credit ratios are shown next to the achieved ratios. Concentrate on Funds from operations ratios.

Note that based on business profile scores published by S&P


Credit Rating Standards and Business Risk

Business Risk/Financial Risk

—Financial risk profile—

Business risk profile Minimal Modest Intermediate Aggressive Highly leveraged Excellent AAA AA A BBB BB Strong AA A A- BBB- BB- Satisfactory A BBB+ BBB BB+ B+ Weak BBB BBB- BB+ BB- B Vulnerable BB B+ B+ B B- Financial risk indicative ratios* Minimal Modest Intermediate Aggressive Highly leveraged Cash flow (Funds from operations/Debt) (%) Over 60 45–60 30–45 15–30 Below 15 Debt leverage (Total debt/Capital) (%) Below 25 25–35 35–45 45–55 Over 55 Debt/EBITDA (x) <1.4 1.4–2.0 2.0–3.0 3.0–4.5 >4.5

Credit risk impact: High (H); Medium (M); Low (L)

Risk factor Cyclicality Competition Capital intensity Technology riskRegulatory/Gov

ernmentEnergy

sensitivityIndustry H H H L M/H HAirlines (U.S.) H H H M M HAutos* H H H M M MAuto suppliers* H H M H L L/MHigh technology* H H H M M/H HMining* H H H L M LChemicals (bulk)* H H H L M HHotels* H H H L L MShipping* H H H L L MCompetitive power* H H M L H HTelecoms (Europe) M H H H H L

Key Industry Characteristics And Drivers Of Credit Risk


Debt Capacity and Interest Cover

• Despite theory of probability of default and loss given default, the basic technique to establish bond ratings continues to be cover ratios,\.


Default Rates and Credit Spreads


Increase of 5% Credit Crisis

Credit Spreads


Defaults versus Long-term Average

Moody's Speculative Grade Trailing 12-Month Default Rates Actual Jan. 2000 to Aug. 2002 / Forecasted Sept. 2002 to Feb. 2003

6.2%6.7%

7.1%

7.7% 7.7% 7.9%

8.5%8.8% 9.0%

9.6% 9.8%

10.5%10.7%10.5%10.3%10.3% 10.5%10.3% 10.1%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%9.3%

8.8%

9.8%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

Jan-

01

Feb

-01

Mar

-01

Apr

-01

May

-01

Jun-

01

Jul-0

1

Aug

-01

Sep

-01

Oct

-01

Nov

-01

Dec

-01

Jan-

02

Feb

-02

Mar

-02

Apr

-02

May

-02

Jun-

02

Jul-0

2

Aug

-02

Sep

-02

Oct

-02

Nov

-02

Dec

-02

Jan-

03

Feb

-03

Months

%

3.77%*

Note: *Long run annual default rate is 3.77%

Moody’s Forecast of Default Rates


Updated Transition Matrix


Probability of Default

• This chart shows rating migrations and the probability of default for alternative loans. Note the increase in default probability with longer loans.


Bond Ratings and Historic Credit Spreads


Credit Spreads for Utility Debt


DSCR Criteria in Different Industries in Project Finance

• Electric Power: 1.3-1.4

• Resources: 1.5-2.0

• Telecoms: 1.5-2.0

• Infrastructure: 1.2-1.6

• Minimum ratio could dip to 1.5

• At a minimum, investment-grade merchant projects probably will have to exceed a 2.0x annual DSCR through debt maturity, but also show steadily increasing ratios. Even with 2.0x coverage levels, Standard & Poor's will need to be satisfied that the scenarios behind such forecasts are defensible. Hence, Standard & Poor's may rely on more conservative scenarios when determining its rating levels.

• For more traditional contract revenue driven projects, minimum base case coverage levels should exceed 1.3x to 1.5x levels for investment-grade.


S

P R

The credit spread (s) can be characterized as the default probability (P) times the loss in the event of a default (R).

The Credit Triangle

S = P (1-R)

Credit Spread on Debt Facilities

• The spread on a loan is directly related to the probability of default and the loss, given default.


EXPECTED LOSS

$$

=Probability of

Default

(PD)

%

xLoss Severity

Given Default

(Severity)

%

Loan Equivalent

Exposure

(Exposure)

$$

x

The focus of grading tools is on modeling PD

What is the probability of the counterparty

defaulting?

If default occurs, how much of this do we

expect to lose?

If default occurs, how much exposure do we

expect to have?

Borrower Risk Facility Risk Related

Expected Loss Can Be Broken Down Into Three Components


Comparison of PD x LGD with Precise FormulaCase 1: No LGD and One Year

• .


Comparison of PD x LGD with Precise FormulaCase 2: LGD and Multiple Years

• .Assumptions

Years 5 BB 5Risk Free Rate 1 5% 7Prob Default 1 20.8% PD 20.80%Loss Given Default 1 80%

Alternative Computations of Credit SpreadCredit Spread 1 3.88%PD x LGD 1 16.64%

ProofOpening Closing Value

Risk Free 100 127.63 127.63

Prob Closing ValueRisky - No Default 100 0.95 153.01 145.36

Risky - Default 100 0.05 30.60 1.53

Total Value 146.89 FALSE

Credit Spread FormulaWith LGD

cs = ((1+rf)/((1-pd)+pd*(1-lgd))-rf)^(1/years)-1


Default Rates by Industry


Recovery Rates

Apr 19, 202383

Mathematical Credit Analysis


General Payoff Graphs from Holding Investments with Future Uncertain Returns

Stock Payoff versus Price if Purchased or Sold Stock at $40

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Ending Stock Price

Pay

off

Purchase at $40 Sell Stock Short


Payoff Graphs from Call Option – Payoffs when Conditions Improve

Call Option Payoff Patterns

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 20 40 60 80Ending Value

Pay

off

Bought call Sold Call


Payoff Graphs from Buying Put Option – Returns are realized to buyer when the value declines


Payoff Graphs from Selling Put Option – Value Changes with Value Decreases

Put Option Payoff Pattern from Selling Put -- Lender Perspective

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Ending Firm ValuePay

off


The Black-Scholes/Merton Approach

• Consider a firm with equity and one debt issue.

• The debt issue matures at date T and has principal F.

• It is a zero coupon bond for simplicity.

• Value of the firm is V(t).

• Value of equity is E(t).

• Current value of debt is D(t).


F

V(T)

Equity

Debt

Payoff toclaimholders

Value of the company and changes in value to equity and debt investors

At maturity date T, the debt-holders receive face value of bond F as long as the value of the firm V(T) exceeds F and V(T) otherwise.

They get F - Max[F - V(T), 0]: The payoff of riskless debt minus the payoff of a put on V(T) with exercise price F.

Equity holders get Max[V(T) - F, 0], the payoff of a call on the firm.

Value of Firm in Time T

Nominal Debt Repayment


BA1 A2 Assets

Payoff todebt holders

The payoffs to the bond holders are limited to the amount lent Bat best.

Credit spread is the payoff from selling a put option


Merton’s Model

• Merton’s model regards the equity as an option on the assets of the firm

• In a simple situation the equity value is

max(VT -D, 0)

where VT is the value of the firm and D is the debt repayment required

Assumptions

Markets are frictionless, there is no difference between borrowing and lending rates

Market value of the assets of a company follow Brownian Motion Process with constant volatility

No cash flow payouts during the life of the debt contract – no debt re-payments and no dividend payments

APR is not violated


Merton‘s Structural Model (1974)

• Assumes a simple capital structure with all debt represented by one zero coupon bond – problem in project finance because of amortization of bonds.

• We will derive the loss rates endogenously, together with the default probability

• Risky asset V, equity S, one zero bond B maturing at T and face value (incl. Accrued interest) F

• Default risk on the loan to the firm is tantamount to the firm‘s assets VT falling below the obligations to the debt holders F

• Credit risk exists as long as probability (V<F)>0

• This naturally implies that at t=0, B0<Fe-rT; yT>rf, where πT=yT-rf is the default spread which compensates the bond holder for taking the default risk


Merton Model Propositions

• Face value of zero coupon debt is strike price

• Can use the Black-Scholes model with equity as a call or debt as a put option to directly measure the value of risky debt

• Can use to compute the required yield on a risky bond:

PV of Debt = Face x (1+y)^t

or

(1+y)^t = PV/Face

(1+y) = (PV/Face)^(1/t)

y = (PV/Face)^(1/t) – 1

With continual compounding = - Ln(PV/Face)/t

• Computation of the yield allows computation of the required credit spread and computation of debt value

• Borrower always holds a valuable default or repayment option. If things go well repayment takes place, borrower pays interest and principal keeps the remaining upside, If things go bad, limited liability allows the borrower to default and walk away losing his/her equity.


Default Occurs at Maturity of Debt if V(T)<F

}]2

exp{[2

0 TT ZTTVV

TimeT

F

V0

VT

Asset Value

Probability of default

TT eVVE

0)(


Resources and Contacts

• My contacts

Ed Bodmer

Phone: +001-630-886-2754

E-mail: [email protected]

• Other Sources

Financial Library – project finance case studies including Eurotunnel and Dabhol

Financial Library – Monte Carlo simulation analysis

August 151 Financial Statement Analysis. [email protected] August 152 Financial Statement Analysis...

Documents

Transcript of August 151 Financial Statement Analysis. [email protected] August 152 Financial Statement Analysis...