Belfast

CardiffBirmingham

Liverpool

London

Manchester

GlasgowAtradius Country ReportUnited Kingdom – April 2014

Atradius 2

OverviewGeneral information Most important sectors (% of GDP, 2012)Capital: London Services: 78.8 %

Governmenttype: Constitutionalmonarchy Industry: 20.5 %

Currency: Britishpound(GBP) Agriculture: 0.7 %

Population: 63.4million

Main import sources (2012, % of total) Main export markets (2012, % of total)Germany: 12.6 % Germany: 11.3 %

China: 8.0 % USA: 10.5 %

TheNetherlands: 7.5 % TheNetherlands: 8.8 %

USA: 6.7 % France: 7.4 %

France: 5.4 % Ireland: 6.2 %

Belgium: 4.4 % Belgium: 5.1 %

Key Indicators

**

2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

RealGDPgrowth(y-on-y,%change) 1.1 0.3 1.7 2.7 2.5

Consumerprices(y-on-y,%change) 4.5 2.8 2.6 2.0 2.2

Householdconsumption(y-on-y,%change) -0.5 1.5 2.4 2.4 2.3

Retailsales(y-on-y,%change) 0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.8 2.3

Manufacturingproduction(y-on-y,%change) 1.8 -1.7 -0.6 2.6 2.0

Unemploymentrate(%) 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.8 6.5

Grossfixedinvestment(y-on-y,%change) -2.4 0.7 -0.5 7.3 6.5

Realnetexports(EURbillion) -16.7 -28.2 -30.6 -34.4 -30.2

Fiscalbalance(%ofGDP) -7.7 -5.9 -5.6 -5.3 -4.2

Governmentdebt(%ofGDP) 71.2 75.4 76.8 79.3 80.8

* forecast Sources: Consensus Economics, IHS Global Insight

Main economic developments Economic growth will accelerate further in 2014

AccordingtotheOfficeofNationalStatistics(ONS),inthelastquarterof2013theUK’sGDPincreased0.7 %onthe

previousquarter(seechartbelow)and1.7 %forthefullyear-wellaboveexpectationsatthebeginningof2013.

Source:IHSGlobalInsight,OECD(MEI)

Consumerspendingwasthemaindriverofgrowthandshouldcontinuetoberobustin2014.Thisisexpectedtobe

accompaniedbyareboundininvestments,manufacturingproductionandhigherexportgrowththisyear,finallyputting

theeconomicreboundonabroaderbasis.GDPgrowthof2.7 %isforecastfor2014(seechartbelow).

Source:ConsensusForecasts(Surveydate10March2014)

(% change on previous year)

GDP growth

Atradius 3

Real net exports (EUR billion) -16.7 -28.2 -30.6 -34.4 -30.2

Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -7.7 -5.9 -5.6 -5.3 -4.2

Government debt (% of GDP) 71.2 75.4 76.8 79.3 80.8 * forecast Sources: Consensus Economics, IHS Global Insight

Main economic developments Economic growth will accelerate further in 2014 According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), in the last quarter of 2013 the UK’s GDP increased 0.7% on the previous quarter (see chart below) and 1.7% for the full year - well above expectations at the beginning of 2013.

Source: Global Insight, OECD (MEI) Consumer spending was the main driver of growth and should continue to be robust in 2014. This is expected to be accompanied by a rebound in investments, manufacturing production and higher export growth this year, finally putting the economic rebound on a broader basis. GDP growth of 2.7% is forecast for 2014 (see chart below). Bitte Graphik einfügen GDP growth (% change on previous year) Source: Consensus Forecasts (Survey date 10 March 2014) Consumer confidence is improving Last year, consumer confidence was boosted by the more optimistic economic outlook and a rebound in the housing market, with a return to rising house prices having a positive effect on household wealth.

(Quarter-on-Quarter percentage change)

Real GDP growth

5

4

3

2

1

02011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

*forecast

1.1 0.3

2.7

1.8

2.5

Atradius 4

Consumer confidence is improving

Lastyear,consumerconfidencewasboostedbythemoreoptimisticeconomicoutlookandareboundinthehousing

market,withareturntorisinghousepriceshavingapositiveeffectonhouseholdwealth.

Source:IHSGlobalInsight,ICON

Thatturnaroundinthehousingmarketbeganattheendof2012(seebelow)andhascontinuedtoaccelerateeversince:

accordingtomortgagelenderHalifax,housepricesrose7.9 %year-on-yearinFebruarythisyear.However,someanalysts

arealreadytalkingofanewhousingbubble,althoughtheriseisnotyetsoextensiveorsteeptobeacauseforconcern.

Source:IHSGlobalInsight

Private consumption is expected to grow markedly in 2014

Withimprovedconfidenceandrisinghouseprices,UKconsumerspendingshouldcontinueonitsupwardpathand

stimulategrowthin2014.Thattrendisalsohelpedbythedropinunemploymentinrecentmonths(expectedtodecrease

to6.8 %thisyearfrom7.6 %in2013)andconsequentlylessfearofjobloss.

Consumerpriceinflationdecreasedlastyearto2.6 %,butwageincreaseshavestillnotkeptpacewithinflation,leadingto

adeclineinrealwages.However,inflationisexpectedtofallfurtherin2014(to2.0 %),andthisshouldhelptoimprove

householdspendingpower–anotherencouragingsignforhouseholdconsumption.InFebruary2014inflationfelltoafour

yearlowof1.7 %

Source: Global Insight, ICON That turnaround in the housing market began at the end of 2012 (see below) and has continued to accelerate ever since: according to mortgage lender Halifax, house prices rose 7.9% year-on-year in February this year. However, some analysts are already talking of a new housing bubble, although the rise is not yet so extensive or steep to be a cause for concern.

Private consumption is expected to grow markedly in 2014 With improved confidence and rising house prices, UK consumer spending should continue on its upward path and stimulate growth in 2014. That trend is also helped by the drop in unemployment in recent months (expected to decrease to 6.8% this year from 7.6% in 2013) and consequently less fear of job loss. Consumer price inflation decreased last year to 2.6%, but wage increases have still not kept pace with inflation, leading to a decline in real wages. However, inflation is expected to fall further in 2014 (to 2.0%), and this should help to improve household spending power – another encouraging sign for household consumption. In February 2014 inflation fell to a four year low of 1.7%

(Index 100 = Neutral)

Consumer confidence

Source: Global Insight, ICON That turnaround in the housing market began at the end of 2012 (see below) and has continued to accelerate ever since: according to mortgage lender Halifax, house prices rose 7.9% year-on-year in February this year. However, some analysts are already talking of a new housing bubble, although the rise is not yet so extensive or steep to be a cause for concern.

Private consumption is expected to grow markedly in 2014 With improved confidence and rising house prices, UK consumer spending should continue on its upward path and stimulate growth in 2014. That trend is also helped by the drop in unemployment in recent months (expected to decrease to 6.8% this year from 7.6% in 2013) and consequently less fear of job loss. Consumer price inflation decreased last year to 2.6%, but wage increases have still not kept pace with inflation, leading to a decline in real wages. However, inflation is expected to fall further in 2014 (to 2.0%), and this should help to improve household spending power – another encouraging sign for household consumption. In February 2014 inflation fell to a four year low of 1.7%

(National level index, 2000 Q1 = 100)

House prices

Atradius 5

Source:IHSGlobalInsight

Asaresult,householdconsumptionisforecasttoincreaseby2.4 %in2014andafurther2.3 %in2015(seechartbelow).

Source:ConsensusForecasts(Surveydate10March2014)

Increasedhouseholdpurchasingpowerisalsoreflectedinstrongerretailsales.AccordingtoIHSGlobalInsight,retailsales

willincrease0.8 %in2014andbyasmuchas2.3 %in2015(seechartonpage2).

Business confidence has improved

Afterlanguishinglargelyunchangedbetweenearly2012andmid-2013,businessconfidenceinmanufacturingincreased

againinthesecondhalfof2013(seechartbelow)

Source:IHSGlobalInsight,OECD(MEI)

(Annual percentage change in CPI all items)

Consumer price inflation

Source: Global Insight As a result, household consumption is forecast to increase by 2.4% in 2014 and a further 2.3% in 2015 (see chart below). Bitte Graphik einfügen Household consumption (% change on previous year) Source: Consensus Forecasts (Survey date 10 March 2014) Increased household purchasing power is also reflected in stronger retail sales. According to IHS Global Insight, retail sales will increase 0.8% in 2014 and by as much as 2.3% in 2015 (see chart on page 2). Business confidence has improved After languishing largely unchanged between early 2012 and mid-2013, business confidence in manufacturing increased again in the second half of 2013 (see chart below)

Source: Global Insight, OECD (MEI)

Source: Global Insight As a result, household consumption is forecast to increase by 2.4% in 2014 and a further 2.3% in 2015 (see chart below). Bitte Graphik einfügen Household consumption (% change on previous year) Source: Consensus Forecasts (Survey date 10 March 2014) Increased household purchasing power is also reflected in stronger retail sales. According to IHS Global Insight, retail sales will increase 0.8% in 2014 and by as much as 2.3% in 2015 (see chart on page 2). Business confidence has improved After languishing largely unchanged between early 2012 and mid-2013, business confidence in manufacturing increased again in the second half of 2013 (see chart below)

Source: Global Insight, OECD (MEI)

(% change on previous year)

Household consumption

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

*forecast

1.5

-0.5

2.42.4 2.3

(Manufacturing industry index)

Business confidence

Manufacturing to rebound in 2014

In2013manufacturingproductioncontractedby0.6 %.However,thesecondhalfoftheyearsawhigherproduction,an

inflowofnewordersandgrowingexports.Aftertwoyearsofcontraction,manufacturingproductionisforecasttoincrease

2.6 %in2014and2.0 %in2015(seechartbelow).

Source:ConsensusForecasts(Surveydate10March2014)

Activityintheservicesectorincreasedthroughout2013,withincomingnewbusinessandconfidencebothbuoyant.

Theconstructionsectorhasbeenboostedbytheriseinhousepricesandtheconsequentrecoveryindemandforboth

residentialandcommercialconstruction.

A surge in investment in 2014

Afteramixedperformancein2012and2013,themoresettledeconomicenvironmentshouldleadtoasignificantrebound

ingrossfixedinvestmentof7.3 %in2014and6.5 %in2015.Alongwithprivateconsumption,investmentistherefore

expectedtobecomeamaincontributortoUKeconomicgrowthinthenexttwoyears,puttingtheeconomicreboundona

morestablefootingbymakingitlessdependentonprivateconsumptiongrowth.

Source:ConsensusEconomics(SurveydateMarch10,2014)

Atradius 6

(% change on previous year)

Manufacturing production

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

*forecast

-1.7

1.8

2.6

-0.6

2.0

(% change on previous year)

Gross fixed investment

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4 2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

*forecast

0.7

-2.4

7.3

-0.5

6.5

Government debt continues to rise

The2008creditcrisisandthesubsequenteconomicdownturnpushedgovernmentdebtupfrom38 %ofGDPin2007

to75 %ofGDPin2012(seechartbelow).Thefiscaldeficitexceeded10 %ofGDPin2009and2010asaconsequenceof

theeconomicslumpandthegovernment’sinvestmentinstimulusmeasures.Comprehensiveausteritymeasuresandtax

increasessince2011haveslowlyreducedthefiscaldeficitto5.6 %ofGDPin2013.

Sinceearly2013thegovernmenthaseaseditsrateoffiscalconsolidationtosupporttherebound,andhighereconomic

growthshouldmakeiteasierforittoreduceitsbudgetdeficit.Lastyear’sdeficitof5.6 %ofGDPisexpectedtodecrease

to5.3 %in2014.Governmentdebtcontinuestocreepup:from76.8 %ofGDPlastyearto79.3 %ofGDPin2014.

Source:IHSGlobalInsight;OfficeforNationalStatistics

InMarch2014,thegovernmentannouncedthatitplanstoreducethebudgetdeficitfurtherin2015andthatitenvisages

adeficitof0.8 %ofGDPinthe2017-18financialyear(FY)withasurplusof0.2 %inFY2018-19.

Loose monetary policy continues to support growth

Despiteconsumerpriceinflationaboveitstargetrateof2 %in2009-2013,theBankofEnglandhasmaintainedits

benchmarkinterestrateat0.5 %sinceApril2009.Indoingsoitiskeepinginplaceitsmonetarypolicyoflowinterestrates

tohelpmitigatetheeffectsoffiscaltighteningandtoavoidinhibitinggrowth.TheBankiscontentwiththisrate,inview

oftheneedformonetarystimulusfortheeconomy,andhasindicatedthatitwillkeepthebenchmarkinterestratesat

0.5 %untilunemploymentdropsto7 %.Inadditiontothelowinterestrate,theBankhasdevisedanumberofschemesto

stimulatelendingforhousingandsmallbusinesses.Itisthereforeexpectedtocontinuewithitsloosemonetarypolicyin

thecomingyear.

External position: increased contribution to economic growth

Inthelastquarterof2013,thelargestcontributiontoeconomicgrowthcamefromnettrade,indicatingthatexportswill

increasinglycontributetoGDP.Togetherwithhigherinvestments,thiswillputthehithertoconsumerspending-driven

reboundonamorebalancedfooting.AccordingtoIHSGlobalInsight,Britishexportswillgrow4.6 %in2014and7.4 %in

2015,after2.6 %in2013.Thecurrentaccountdeficitisforecasttodecreaseto2.3 %ofGDPin2015after3.1 %ofGDPin

2014.

Atradius 7

Source: Global Insight; Office for National Statistics In March 2014, the government announced that it plans to reduce the budget deficit further in 2015 and that it envisages a deficit of 0.8% of GDP in the 2017-18 financial year (FY) with a surplus of 0.2% in FY 2018-19. Loose monetary policy continues to support growth Despite consumer price inflation above its target rate of 2% in 2009-2013, the Bank of England has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% since April 2009. In doing so it is keeping in place its monetary policy of low interest rates to help mitigate the effects of fiscal tightening and to avoid inhibiting growth. The Bank is content with this rate, in view of the need for monetary stimulus for the economy, and has indicated that it will keep the benchmark interest rates at 0.5% until unemployment drops to 7%. In addition to the low interest rate, the Bank has devised a number of schemes to stimulate lending for housing and small businesses. It is therefore expected to continue with its loose monetary policy in the coming year. External position: increased contribution to economic growth In the last quarter of 2013, the largest contribution to economic growth came from net trade, indicating that exports will increasingly contribute to GDP. Together with higher investments, this will put the hitherto consumer spending-driven rebound on a more balanced footing. According to IHS Global Insight, British exports will grow 2.6% in 2014 and 4.6% in 2015, after 0.2% in 2013. The current account deficit is forecast to decrease to 2.7% of GDP in 2015 after 3.8% of GDP in 2014. The insolvency environment Insolvencies are expected to decrease again in 2014 The economic crisis years of 2008 and 2009 saw spectacular year-on-year increases – of more than 20% - in corporate insolvencies .While in 2010 business failures decreased by 16%, this improving trend did not continue in 2011.

(Government debt and budget balance in percent of GDP)

Public debt and budget balance: United Kingdom

The insolvency environmentInsolvencies are expected to decrease again in 2014

Theeconomiccrisisyearsof2008and2009sawspectacularyear-on-yearincreases–ofmorethan20 %-incorporate

insolvencies.Whilein2010businessfailuresdecreasedby16 %,thisimprovingtrenddidnotcontinuein2011.

However,since2012thenumberofbusinessfailureshasagainfallen,andin2013theUKInsolvencyServicerecorded

a7.3 %year-on-yeardecreaseincompulsoryliquidationsandcreditors‘voluntaryliquidationsinEnglandandWales,to

14,982cases.Ofthose,compulsoryliquidationsfell14.9 %to3,624cases,whilecreditors’voluntaryliquidationsdeclined

4.5 %,to11,358cases.

Source:IHSGlobalInsight,TheInsolvencyService

Weexpectthispositivetrendtocontinuein2014,withbusinessfailuresforecasttodecreasebyaround3 %.However,

thisstillputsthenumberofinsolvenciesabove2007pre-crisislevelsataround12,500cases.

Source:TheInsolvencyService,AtradiusEconomicUnit

Atradius 8

(1-year trailing sum of insolvency counts based on quaterly data)

Insolvency trends: United Kingdom

However, since 2012 the number of business failures has again fallen, and in 2013 the UK Insolvency Service recorded a 7.3% year-on-year decrease in compulsory liquidations and creditors´ voluntary liquidations in England and Wales, to 14,982 cases. Of those, compulsory liquidations fell 14.9% to 3,624 cases, while creditors’ voluntary liquidations declined 4.5%, to 11,358 cases.

Source: Global Insight, The Insolvency Service We expect this positive trend to continue in 2014, with business failures forecast to decrease by around 3%. However, this still puts the number of insolvencies above 2007 pre-crisis levels at around 12,500 cases. UK business insolvencies (year-on-year change) Bitte Chart einfügen (excel sheet) Source: The Insolvency Service, Atradius Economic Unit

Default risk for UK listed firms continued to decrease in 2013 Given the stronger than expected economic rebound, the monthly median expected default frequency (EDF) figures for UK listed companies have decreased since last year: to 0.23% in January 2014 (down from 0.5% in January 2013 - see chart below). This is the lowest figure since autumn 2007.

(year-on-year change)

United Kingdom business insolvencies

*forecast

0

% change

0

15,000 15,000

10,000 10,000

2011

5.2 %

16,886

2012

-4.3 %

16,154

2013

-7.3 %

14,982

2008

24.2 %

15,535

2007

-4.8 %

12,507

2009

22.8 %

19,077

2010

-15.9 %

16,045

20,000 20,000

2014*

-3.0 %

14,550

5,000 5,000

Default risk for UK listed firms continued to decrease in 2013

Giventhestrongerthanexpectedeconomicrebound,themonthlymedianexpecteddefaultfrequency(EDF)figuresforUK

listedcompanieshavedecreasedsincelastyear:to0.23 %inJanuary2014(downfrom0.5 %inJanuary2013-seechart

below).Thisisthelowestfiguresinceautumn2007.

Source:KMVCreditMonitorandAtradiusEconomicResearch

*TheExpectedDefaultFrequency(EDF)chartaboveisbasedonlistedcompaniesinthemarketsreferredto,andthelikelihoodofdefaultacrossallsectorswithinthe

nextyear.Inthiscontext,defaultisdefinedasafailuretomakeascheduledpayment,ortheinitiationofbankruptcyproceedings.Probabilityofdefaultiscalculated

fromthreefactors:marketvalueofacompany’sassets,itsvolatilityanditscurrentcapitalstructure.Asaguide,theprobabilityofonefirminahundreddefaultingon

paymentisshownas1 %.

Developments in some main sectorsAutomotive

Structurally,theUK’sautomotiveindustryhasbeenwellplacedtocapitaliseonbothemergingmarketdemandandthe

moveupmarkettomoreaspirational,premiummodels.AccordingtotheSocietyofMotorManufacturersandTraders

(SMMT),UKcarproductionincreased3.1 %in2013,tomorethan1.5millionunits.FouroutoffivecarsbuiltintheUK

weresoldabroad,withstrongdemandcomingfromChina,theUSandRussia.NewcarregistrationsintheUKrosebymore

than10 %lastyear,to2,264,737units.

Weexpectthissectortocontinuetoprofitfromincreasingglobalcarsalesin2014,asWesternEuropeeconomiesstabilise

andtheUSeconomicreboundcontinues.Thismayalsooffsettheslowingpaceofeconomicgrowthintheemerging

marketsofAsiaandSouthAmerica.Thereissignificantinvestmentinnewmodelsandproductioncapacityatanumber

ofUKplants.

Onaverage,paymentsintheUKautomotiveindustrytakebetween45and90daysandthisisexpectedtoremainthecase

inthecomingmonths.Protractedpaymentsinthesectorarerareandconsequentlywehaveseenfewernotificationsof

non-paymentoverrecentmonths.ComparedtootherUKindustries,theautomotivesector’sdefaultandinsolvencyrateis

verygood,withastableoutlook.OurriskunderwritingstanceispositivetowardsallpartsoftheUKautomotivesector-

andisevenmorerelaxedthanlastyear.However,thirdtiercomponentmanufacturersandindependentspecialistvehicle

manufacturersrepresenthigherrisksthanothersegments.

Atradius 9

(Expected default frequency, percentage points)

Median EDF evolution by country*

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Median EDF evolution by country* (Expected default frequency, percentage points)

United Kingdom

Spain

Netherlands

Germany

Italy

France

Construction

UKconstructionbeganquietlyin2013but,astheyearprogressed,therewasadistinctimprovement:firstinthe

residentialbuildingsubsectorwhile,inthesecondhalfoftheyear,theinfrastructuresectorwasakeydriverofsector

growth.

Wearecautiouslyoptimisticaboutthefutureasthestronghousebuildingmarketshouldhelpdriveaconstruction

recoveryin2014.Thecommercialsectorisalsoimprovingand,togetherwithprivatehousingandinfrastructure,willhelp

fuelindustrygrowthoverthenextfiveyears.

Paymentdelaysworsenedin2013assomeofthemajortieronecontractorspushedtheirtermsoutto90and,insome

instances,120days.Thisdidthemostdamagefurtherdownthesupplychain:ineffect,itmeantthatSMEswerehelpingto

fundtheworkingcapitalofmuchlargerandmorepowerfulbusinesses.However,astheanticipatedvolumesandmargins

improvein2014,paymentbehaviourshouldalsoimproveandmanagingcashflowshouldbecomeeasier.

Weexpectconstructioninsolvenciestocontinuetofallin2014-byabout3 %-inlinewithourpredictionofanoverall

decreaseinUKbusinessinsolvencies(seeabove).However,wearemorecautiousaboutthemechanicalsandelectrical

constructionsubsectors.Inbothcases,wehadseendesperatetenderingpricewarsduringthecrisis,withgrossmargins

oncontractsunderparticularstrain.Thishascausedsomemajorinsolvencies,withlargetieronecontractorsleavingthese

sectorsduetoovercapacityandtightmargins.

Consumer durables/non-food retail

Theconsumerdurablesmarketsawpositivegrowthintherun-uptoChristmas2013.Afterasubduedperformancein

earlieryears,theconsumerelectronicssubsectorenjoyedgrowthforthefirsttimeintwoyears.Thesmalldomestic

appliancesubsectorperformedpositivelythroughout2013,rightuptoChristmas,andwiththeimprovinghousingmarket

salesshouldcontinuetogrow.Furnituretraderssawstrongdemandtowardstheendof2013andthefirstfewweeksof

2014.Salespriceshavebeenmaintained,showingthatdiscountinghasnotbeenessentialtoachievethisgrowth.Thereis

realoptimismaboutthenexttwelvemonthsasabuoyanthousingmarketshoulddrivethissubsectorforward.

Ouroutlookforthenextsixmonthsiscautiouslyoptimistic.Withthepost-Christmasperiod-traditionallyatimeforretail

failures-behindus,wehaveseenjustafewrecentfailures.Insolvenciesintheconsumerdurables/non-foodretailsector

fellbyaround5 %in2013.Whilenotforeseeingasharpincreaseingrowthratesorimprovementinmarginsforconsumer

durablesretailers,westillexpectmosttotradewellandinsolvencyratestoleveloffoverthenextsixmonths.

2014willalsoseefurtherstoreclosures,bothwithinandoutsideformalinsolvencyprocesses,asthegrowthofonline

shoppingcontinuestotakeitstollon‘bricksandmortar’retailing.

Atradius 10

UK industries performance forecastApril 2014

Atradius 11

Agriculture

ConsumerDurables

Metals

Automotive/Transport

Electronics/ICT

Paper

Chemicals/Pharma

Financial Services

Services

Construction

Food

Steel

ConstructionMaterials

Machines/Engineering

Textiles

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Bleak

Atradius Credit Insurance N.V

Postbus89821006JDAmsterdam

DavidRicardostraat11066JSAmsterdam

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