Atoll Adaptation Dialogue Suva, Fiji, - Pacific Community · 2019-05-15 · Atoll Adaptation...
Transcript of Atoll Adaptation Dialogue Suva, Fiji, - Pacific Community · 2019-05-15 · Atoll Adaptation...
Atoll Adaptation Dialogue
Suva, Fiji,
30 April 2019
Ministry of Environment, Maldives
1192 islands 26 natural atolls
2,041 individual reefs
Reef area ~ 4,513 km2
Rich marine biodiversityPopulation 338,434
GDP per capita3846 USD (2013)
Tourism (28.2%)
National Circumstances
Human Development Index : 0.688
Current and Future climate projections
• Base year: 1980-2000
Current and Future Climate Projections
• Temperature: 0.168 - 0.267oC/decade increase
-60
-10
40
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
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2009
2011
seal
evel
an
om
aly
(mm
)
Malé
• Sea level: 2.933-3.753 mm per year • Rainfall: 0.02 mm - 2.21 mm per year decrease
-800
-300
200
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1967
1970
1973
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1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
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2009
2012
rain
fall
ano
mal
ly(m
m)
Malé
Gan
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
1974
1976
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1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
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2010
2012
Tem
per
atu
re o
C
Malé Gan
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
Mo
nth
ly m
ean
SST
(ͦC
)• Sea Surface Temperature: 0.11-0.15°C/decade increase
Impacts & Vulnerability to Climate Change
Saltwater intrusion
Flooding
Change in rainfall patterns
Groundwater pollution
Degraded water quality
Waterborne diseases
Loss of vegetation
Food security
Infrastructure damage
Loss of wetlands & waterbodies
More than 44% of human settlement and more than 80% of critical infrastructure in Maldives is within 100m of coast
Economic Vulnerability
• Real GDP growth 1985 - 2010
• Vulnerable to external shocks
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Land Loss, Beach Erosion and Human Settlements
• Inundation modeled under IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios
• Critical infrastructure and human settlement at risk
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Water
• Extreme analysis dry period - observed consecutive dry days highest in north region (max 56 days)
• Often rainwater contaminated with coliform
• Rainwater quality effected by Trans-boundary air pollution (especially in north)
• Even when fresh ground water mostly contaminated by coliform
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HA HDh Sh N R B Lh K AA ADh V M F Dh Th L GA GDh Gn AdduCity
No
. of
req
ue
st f
or
wat
er
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Coral Reef
• Increase in SST is likely to escalate recurrence of bleaching
• Calcification rates decrease with increasing CO2 levels , e.g. at great barrier reef
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Food security
• High import dependence, vulnerable to impacts at the country of production
• Limited production; lack of land, lack of variety, lack of market and faces risk from extreme events
• Limited storage. Ports and storage exposed to disaster or climate risks
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
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100%
Crops Seafood Meat Dairy Fruits and vegetables
South East Asia South Asia West Asia Europe Oceania North America South America
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Fisheries
• El Nino years (warmer years), the skipjack catch rates noticeably decreased, while the yellow fin and other tuna species increased
• Decrease pH impact on the food production and availability in the food chain and change physiology of fish
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Skip
jack
tu
na
catc
h p
er u
nit
eff
ort
(kg
/day
)
Vulnerability to Climate ChangeHealth
• Frequency and intensity of extreme events will increase
• Unpredictable rainfall mean unpredictable outbreaks (dengue, scrub typhus)
• Flooding promotes the transmission of pathogens
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mea
n r
epo
rted
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gue
case
s
Mea
n r
ain
fall
(mm
)
Rainfall Kaafu atollDengue Kaafu atoll 0
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
No
. of
rep
ort
ed c
ases
sc
rub
typ
hu
s
2013 2012 2011
Vulnerability to Climate Change - TourismFactor Impacts
Increase in temperature Change and unpredictability in seasons, increase in cooling costs, heat
stress for tourists, infectious disease increases
Increasing frequency and
intensity of extreme events
Increased insurance costs/loss of insurability, business interruption costs
Sea level rise Coastal erosion, loss of beach area, loss of coastal infrastructure, higher
costs to protect and maintain beaches
Sea surface temperatures rise Increased coral bleaching and marine resource and aesthetics degradation
in dive and snorkel destinations
Changes in marine
biodiversity
Shark based diving worth USD 38.6 million (Martin & Hakeem (2006))
Manta watching USD 8.1 million per year Anderson et al. (2011)
Loss of natural marine attractions and species, loss in revenue
Impact of Mitigation action Increases the financial burden on resort developers and operators and cost
of tourism product increases
Adaptation – Land Loss
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Tetrapod Breakwaters
Sand cement bags (unplastered) breakwater
Sand cement bags breakwater
Rock boulders breakwater
Sand cement bags (unplastered) seawall
Sheet piled seawall
Geotextile bags breakwater
Sand cement bags seawall
Rock boulders seawall
Coral mound breakwater
Quay wall
Sand Cement bags groynes
Sand Cement bag revetment
S-Block revetment
Coral mound seawall
Coral mound groynes
Concrete filled barrel seawall
Jumbobag seawall
USD (2012 equivalent) per linear metre
20 year life time cost Base Price
complete protection of all inhabited islands would
cost approx. USD 8.8 billion (MEE 2015)
Coastal erosion – major challenge
Costal protection structures: costly!
Soft engineering
HulhmaleGdh.Thinadhoo piolet project (ICCR)
Nature based solutions?
• Does it work in our islands given the urgency, frequency and magnitude of the problem.
Adaptation - Water
• Currently moving towards an integrated water resources management (IWRM)
• Key components includes • Ground water protection
• Rainwater harvesting and storage
• Waste and storm water management
• And desalinated water to supplement the natural resources
• Piloted in 6 islands at different regions of the Maldives
• Increase in water storage
Adaptation – Coral Reef• Coral Reef Monitoring
• national coral reef monitoring program• A Coral Reef Monitoring Framework was
established to support this national coral reef monitoring program
• measurement of physical oceanographic properties e.g. SST initiated
• Coral Reef Valuation• marine fishery in the Maldives is valued more
thanUSD 50 million per annum
• Marine Protected Areas • economic benefits of these MPAs outweighs the
cost of restricting the development activities
• Coral reef restoration• facilitate and accelerate coral reef growth to
achieve its former glory
Adaptation – Food security• Increased local production and reduce import
dependency• Greenhouse auto-pot systems (integrated farming)
• Increasing the commercial potential
• Improve fish finding and fish harvesting and handling.
• Establish aquaculture/mariculture as an alternative.
• Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) was introduced in 2012 that enhances security of fishermen
• Experiment new and alternative species and breeding / handling methods for live bait.
• Integrated reef fishery management
Adaptation - Health
• Public Health Surveillance• Integrated disease surveillance system (SIDAS)
was established throughout the country
• Control of vector borne disease• ‘Mosquito Control Regulations’ by the government
in 2007.
• National Public Health Protection Act (7/2012)
• Access to health care• Universal social health insurance schemes -
Aasanda
• Primary level care is available in all inhabited islands
Adaptation - Tourism
• Tourism operations in Maldives are intimately connected to other sectors
• Support community-based adaptation projects in tourism-associated communities.
• IWRM facility in the island of B. Maalhos
• Glass bottling plant established at the island to provide water to resort
• Climate proof infrastructures - waste to energy (food waste) piloted in Chaayaa Lagoon Hakuraa Huraa resort by compact bio gas system.
• Market-based risk financing mechanisms (such as weather index insurance)
Thank you