Chapter 8. Emission and Deposition of Atmospheric Mercury Vapor
Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons · Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons...
Transcript of Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons · Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons...
Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons
Presentation atCollaborative Meeting on Modeling Mercury
in Freshwater Environments Niagara Falls, NY, January 19-20, 2006
Dr. Mark CohenNOAA Air Resources Laboratory
1315 East West Highway, R/ARL, Room 3316
Silver Spring, Maryland, [email protected]
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ss/transport/cohen.html
2. Local Deposition Comparison:HYSPLIT-Hg vs.ISC (Gaussian Plume)
Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons
3. Comparison of Utility Contributions to the Great Lakes:HYSPLIT-Hg vs. CMAQ-Hg
4. Summary
2
1. EMEP Mercury Model Intercomparison
2. Local Deposition Comparison:HYSPLIT-Hg vs.ISC (Gaussian Plume)
Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons
3. Comparison of Utility Contributions to the Great Lakes:HYSPLIT-Hg vs. CMAQ-Hg
4. Summary
3
1. EMEP Mercury Model Intercomparison
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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ParticipantsD. Syrakov …………………………….. Bulgaria….NIMHA. Dastoor, D. Davignon ……………… Canada...... MSC-CanJ. Christensen …………………………. Denmark…NERIG. Petersen, R. Ebinghaus …………...... Germany…GKSSJ. Pacyna ………………………………. Norway…..NILUJ. Munthe, I. Wängberg ……………….. Sweden….. IVLR. Bullock ………………………………USA………EPAM. Cohen, R. Artz, R. Draxler ………… USA………NOAAC. Seigneur, K. Lohman ………………..USA……... AER/EPRIA. Ryaboshapko, I. Ilyin, O.Travnikov…EMEP……MSC-E
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Intercomparison Conducted in 3 Stages
I. Comparison of chemical schemes for a cloud environment
II. Air Concentrations in Short Term Episodes
III. Long-Term Deposition and Source-Receptor Budgets
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Stage
Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, US NOAAHYSPLIT
MSC-E heavy metal hemispheric model, EMEP MSC-EMSCE-HM-Hem
Acid Deposition and Oxidants Model, GKSS Research Center, Germany ADOM
MSC-E heavy metal regional model, EMEP MSC-EMSCE-HM
Community Multi-Scale Air Quality model, US EPACMAQ
Eulerian Model for Air Pollution, Bulgarian Meteo-serviceEMAP
Chemistry of Atmos. Mercury model, Environmental Institute, SwedenCAM
Mercury Chemistry Model, Atmos. & Environmental Research, USA MCM
Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model, National Environmental Institute DEHM
Global/Regional Atmospheric Heavy Metal model, Environment CanadaGRAHM
IIIIII
Model Name and InstitutionModel Acronym
Participating Models
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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Intercomparison Conducted in 3 Stages
I. Comparison of chemical schemes for a cloud environment
II. Air Concentrations in Short Term Episodes
III. Long-Term Deposition and Source-Receptor Budgets
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Hg(II), Reactive Gaseous Mercury [RGM]Elemental Mercury [Hg(0)]
Particulate Mercury [Hg(p)]
Atmospheric Mercury
Re-emission of previously
deposited mercury
PrimaryAnthropogenic
Emissions
Naturalemissions Wet and Dry Deposition
CLOUD DROPLET
cloud
Hg(II) reduced to Hg(0) by SO2 and sunlight
Hg(0) oxidized to dissolved Hg(II) species by O3, OH,
HOCl, OCl-
Adsorption/desorptionof Hg(II) to/from soot
Hg(p)
Vapor phase Hg(0) oxidized to RGM and Hg(p) by O3,
H202, Cl2, OH, HCl Hg(p) Dissolution?
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Variation of Hg concentrations (ng/L)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
TCM AER CAM MSC-E CMAQ
Models
Con
cent
ratio
n, n
g/L
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Stage I Publications:2001 Ryaboshapko, A., Ilyin, I., Bullock, R., Ebinghaus, R., Lohman,
K., Munthe, J., Petersen, G., Seigneur, C., Wangberg, I. Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury. Stage I. Comparisons of Chemical Modules for Mercury Transformations in a Cloud/Fog Environment. Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East, Moscow, Russia.
2002 Ryaboshapko, A., Bullock, R., Ebinghaus, R., Ilyin, I., Lohman, K., Munthe, J., Petersen, G., Seigneur, C., Wangberg, I. Comparison of Mercury Chemistry Models. Atmospheric Environment 36, 3881-3898.
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EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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Intercomparison Conducted in 3 Stages
I. Comparison of chemical schemes for a cloud environment
II. Air Concentrations in Short Term Episodes
III. Long-Term Deposition and Source-Receptor Budgets
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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SO3=, HO2SO3
=SO3=SO3
=SO3=, HO2SO3
=SO3=, hv, HO2
Liquid-phase reduction agents
O3O3O3O3O3, OH!, HOCl,
OCl-O3O3, OH!, HOCl, OCl-Liquid-phase oxidation agents
O3 (f)O3O3O3, OH!O3, H2O2,Cl2, HClO3O3, H2O2, Cl2, OH·Gas-phase oxidation
agents
200none10102017TPM boundary condition (pg/m3)
00none105217RGM boundary condition (pg/m3)
1.6 - 1.71.5No1.51.51.51.7Hg(0) boundary condition (ng/m3)
50 x 5050 x 50150 x 1501o x 1o50 x 5036 x 36,
108 x 10855 x 5536 x 36Horizontal resolution (km, unless noted differently)
3.915305151015Model top height (km)
SDA,NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis
NCEP / NCAR reanalysis
Canadian Meteorolo-gical Centre
SDA,NCEP/NCAR
reanalysis
NCEP/NCAR (MM-5)HIRLAMECMWF TOGA
reanalysis (MM5)Source of meteorological data
regional/EMEPHemisphericglobalregional/
EMEPregional/EMEP
regional/ Central Europe
regional/Central and
Northern Europe
Scale/Domain
EulerianEulerianEulerianEulerianLagrangianEulerianEulerianModel type
MSCE-HgDEHMGRAHMEMAPHYSPLITADOMCMAQ-HgModel
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Anthropogenic Mercury Emissions Inventoryand Monitoring Sites for Phase II
(note: only showing largest emitting grid cells)
Mace Head, Ireland grassland shore Rorvik, Sweden
forested shore
Aspvreten, Sweden forested shore
Zingst, Germanysandy shore
Neuglobsow, Germany forested area
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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Neuglobsow
Zingst
AspvretenRorvik
Mace Head
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Total Gaseous Mercury at Neuglobsow: June 26 – July 6, 1995
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul 00.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Tota
l Gas
eous
Mer
cury
(ng/
m3)
MEASURED
NWNW
NW
N
N
S
SE
NW
Neuglobsow
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Total Gaseous Mercury (ng/m3) at Neuglobsow: June 26 – July 6, 1995
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MEASURED
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MSCE
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 CMAQ
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 GRAHM
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 EMAP
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 DEHM
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 ADOM
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 HYSPLIT
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Total Gaseous Mercury (ng/m3) at Neuglobsow: June 26 – July 6, 1995
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MEASURED
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MSCE
Using default emissions inventory
The emissions inventory is a critical input to the models…
26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 02-Jul 04-Jul 06-Jul01234 MSCE - UBA
Using alternative emissions inventory
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Total Particulate Mercury (pg/m3) at Neuglobsow, Nov 1-14, 1999
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150MEASURED
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150CMAQ
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150GRAHM
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150EMAP
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150DEHM
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150ADOM
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150HYSPLIT
02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov0
50
100
150MSCE
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MSCE Neuglobsow RGM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
pg/m
3
ObsCalc
CMAQ Neuglobsow RGM
010203040506070
pg/m
3
ObsCalc
ADOM Neuglobsow RGM
010203040506070
pg/m
3
ObsCalc
EMAP Neuglobsow RGM
0
5
10
15
20
25
pg/m
3
ObsCalc
GRAHM Neuglobsow RGM
0
35
70
105
140
pg/m
3
ObsCalc
HYSPLIT Neuglobsow RGM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
pg/m
3
ObsCalc
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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DEHM Neuglobsow RGM
0
6
12
18
24
30
pg/m
3
ObsCalc
Reactive Gaseous Mercury at Neuglobsow, Nov 1-14, 1999
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Overall Phase II statistics for 2-week episode means
0
20
40
60
80
100
De viatio n fac t
Perc
enta
ge, %
2 3 5 10
TGMTPM RGM
Deviation Factor
RGM: 90% within a factor of 10
RGM: 50% within a factor of 2
TPM: 90% within a factor of 2.5
TGM: all within a factor of 1.35
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Stage II Publications:2003 Ryaboshapko, A., Artz, R., Bullock, R., Christensen, J., Cohen, M.,
Dastoor, A., Davignon, D., Draxler, R., Ebinghaus, R., Ilyin, I., Munthe, J., Petersen, G., Syrakov, D. Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury. Stage II. Comparisons of Modeling Results with Observations Obtained During Short Term Measuring Campaigns.Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East, Moscow, Russia.
2005 Ryaboshapko, A., Bullock, R., Christensen, J., Cohen, M., Dastoor, A., Ilyin, I., Petersen, G., Syrakov, D., Artz, R., Davignon, D., Draxler, R., and Munthe, J. Intercomparison Study of Atmospheric Mercury Models. Phase II. Comparison of Models with Short-Term Measurements. Submitted to Atmospheric Environment.
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EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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Intercomparison Conducted in 3 Stages
I. Comparison of chemical schemes for a cloud environment
II. Air Concentrations in Short Term Episodes
III. Long-Term Deposition and Source-Receptor Budgets
23
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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Phase III Sampling Locations
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Due to resource constraints, not all models simulated the entire year 1999…
EMAP
DEHM
MSCE-HEM
MSCE-HM
ADOM
HYSPLIT
CMAQ
DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96
Monitoring Station
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
wet
Hg
depo
sitio
n (g
/km
2-m
onth
)
Obs
MSCE-HM
MSCE-HM-Hem
HYSPLIT
DEHM
EMAP
CMAQ
August 1999 Mercury Wet Deposition
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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F2 F3 F5 F10Deviation Factor
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perc
ent o
f res
ults
with
in a
giv
en fa
ctor
ADOMCMAQEMAPMSCE-HMMSCE-HM-HemHYSPLITDEHM
Wet Deposition Summary
~60% within a factor of 2
~80% within a factor of 3
~90% within a factor of 5
~100% within a factor of 10
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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For dry deposition, there are no measurement results to compare the models against;
However, the models can be compared against each other…
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96
Monitoring Station
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
Hg
dry
depo
sitio
n (g
/km
2-m
onth
)
model avg
MSCE-HM
MSCE-HEM
HYSPLIT
DEHM
EMAP
CMAQ
August 1999 Mercury Dry Deposition
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
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Main items of mercury atmospheric balance for the UK in 1999, t/yr
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Items of Hg atmospheric balances for the countries in 1999, t/yr[average modeled result (with ranges in parentheses)]
18.2(16–21)
8.4(7.9-9.2)
7.3 (7.0-7.8)
Outflow
2.1(1.4-2.6)
0.8(0.5-1.3)
0.3(0.2-0.6)
Dep. from European emissions
7.4(4.8-9.1)
1.3(0.6-1.9)
1.3 (0.8-1.6)
Dep. from own emissions
11.8(9.6-13.1)
4.7(3.2-6.6)
3.5(3.1-4.2)
Total deposition
PolandItalyThe UKItem
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
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Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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Stage III Publication:
2005 Ryaboshapko, A., Artz, R., Bullock, R., Christensen, J., Cohen, M., Draxler, R., Ilyin, I., Munthe, J., Pacyna, J., Petersen, G., Syrakov, D., Travnikov, O. Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury. Stage III. Comparison of Modelling Results with Long-Term Observations and Comparison of Calculated Items of Regional Balances. Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – East, Moscow, Russia.
2. Local Deposition Comparison:HYSPLIT-Hg vs.ISC (Gaussian Plume)
Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons
3. Comparison of Utility Contributions to the Great Lakes:HYSPLIT-Hg vs. CMAQ-Hg
4. Summary
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1. EMEP Mercury Model Intercomparison
0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000fo
r 1 k
g/da
y so
urce
ug/m
2-ye
ar
Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m
Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Kansas City)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights
Calculated from data used to produce Appendix A of USEPA (2005): Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) Technical Support Document: Methodology Used to Generate Deposition, Fish Tissue Methylmercury Concentrations, and Exposure for Determining Effectiveness of Utility Emissions Controls: Analysis of Mercury from Electricity Generating Units 33
0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
for 1
kg/
day
sour
ceug
/m2-
year
Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m
Wet + Dry Deposition: HYSPLIT (Nebraska)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights
0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
for 1
kg/
day
sour
ceug
/m2-
year
Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m
Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Kansas City)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights
0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
for 1
kg/
day
sour
ceug
/m2-
year
Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m
Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Tampa)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights
0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
for 1
kg/
day
sour
ceug
/m2-
year
Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m
Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Phoenix)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights
0 - 15 15 - 30 30 - 60distance range from source (km)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000fo
r 1 k
g/da
y so
urce
ug/m
2-ye
ar
Hg(2)_50mHg(2)_250mHg(2)_500mHg(p)_250mHg(0)_250m
Wet + Dry Deposition: ISC (Indianapolis)for emissions of different mercury forms from different stack heights
HYSPLIT 1996
ISC: 1990-1994
Different Time Periods and Locations, but Similar Results
34
2. Local Deposition Comparison:HYSPLIT-Hg vs.ISC (Gaussian Plume)
Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons
3. Comparison of Utility Contributions to the Great Lakes:HYSPLIT-Hg vs. CMAQ-Hg
4. Summary
35
1. EMEP Mercury Model Intercomparison
HYSPLIT-Hg results for Lake Erie (1999)
municipal waste incin --medical waste incin --
hazardous waste incin --industrial waste incin --
other waste incin --
chloralkali --other chemical manuf --
pulp/paper --cement/concrete --
mining --metallurgical processes --lamp manuf & breakage --
other manufacturing --other --
other fuel combustion --natural gas combustion --
mobile sources --oil combustion (non-mobile) --coal combustion (comm/ind) --
coal-fired elec gen not IPM --
coal-fired elec gen IPM --
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Total Atmos. Dep Flux to Lake Erie (g Hg/km2-year)
USACanada
37
HYSPLIT-Hg results for Lake Erie (1999)
Modeled Mercury Deposition in the Great Lakes Region from all sources during 2001
Modeled Mercury Deposition in the Great Lakes Region attributable to U.S. coal-fired power plants during 2001
CMAQ-Hg results from EPA analysis performed for the Clean Air Mercury Rule
Erie Ontario Michigan Huron Superior0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dep
ositi
on (u
g/m
2-ye
ar) HYSPLIT
CMAQ
Model-estimated U.S. utility atmospheric mercury deposition contribution to the Great Lakes: HYSPLIT-Hg (1996 meteorology, 1999 emissions) vs. CMAQ-HG (2001 meteorology, 2001 emissions).
39
Erie Ontario Michigan Huron Superior0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Dep
ositi
on (u
g/m
2-ye
ar) HYSPLIT
25% added to CMAQCMAQ
Model-estimated U.S. utility atmospheric mercury deposition contribution to the Great Lakes: HYSPLIT-Hg (1996 meteorology, 1999 emissions) vs. CMAQ-Hg (2001 meteorology, 2001 emissions).
This figure also shows an added component of the CMAQ-Hg estimates -- corresponding to 30% of the CMAQ-Hg results – in an attempt to adjust the CMAQ-Hg results to account for the deposition underprediction found in the CMAQ-Hg model evaluation.
40
2. Local Deposition Comparison:HYSPLIT-Hg vs.ISC (Gaussian Plume)
Atmospheric Mercury Model Intercomparisons
3. Comparison of Utility Contributions to the Great Lakes:HYSPLIT-Hg vs. CMAQ-Hg
4. Summary
41
1. EMEP Mercury Model Intercomparison
Summary of Model Intercomparisons
Extremely useful for improving models
Opportunity to work together and pool resources (e.g., everyone doesn’t have to create their own inventory or assemble monitoring data for evaluation)
Funding is a problem… most studies do not fund the individual participants….
10% of the work is doing the initial modeling analysis;
90% of the work is trying to figure out why the models are different – but we rarely have the resources to do much of this
Thanks!
Extra Slides
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
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Effect of Different Assumptions Regarding Hg(p) SolubilityAER/EPRI 0%; MSCE-EMEP 50%; CMAQ-EPA 100%
0
50
100
150
0 12 24 36 48
Hours
Con
cent
ratio
n, n
g/L
AER EPRIMSCE EMEPCMAQ EPA
2000 European anthropogenic Hg emissions
240 t/yr
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
European anthropogenic Hg re-emissions
50 t/yr
European natural Hg emissions
180 t/yr
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
global natural Hg emissions1800 t/yr
1995 global anthropogenic Hg emissions1900 t/yr
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
48
There are uncertainties in measurements --even of precipitation amount…
NL91 De Zilk
020406080
100120140160
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Pre
cipi
tatio
n am
ount
, mm
HM samplerHg sampler
FI96 Pallas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Pre
cipi
tatio
n am
ount
, mm
HM samplerHg sampler
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96
Monitoring Station
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
wet
Hg
depo
sitio
n (g
/km
2-m
onth
)
Obs
MSCE-HM
MSCE-HM-Hem
HYSPLIT
DEHM
EMAP
ADOM
CMAQ
February 1999 Mercury Wet Deposition
49
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
50
DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96
Monitoring Station
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
wet
Hg
depo
sitio
n (g
/km
2-ye
ar)
Obs
MSCE-HM
MSCE-HM-Hem
DEHM
EMAP
Full Year 1999 Mercury Wet Deposition
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
51
DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96
Monitoring Station
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
Hg
dry
depo
sitio
n (g
/km
2-m
onth
)
model avg
MSCE-HM
MSCE-HEM
HYSPLIT
DEHM
EMAP
ADOM
CMAQ
February 1999 Mercury Dry Deposition
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
52
DE01 DE09 NL91 NO99 SE02 SE11 SE12 SE05 FI96
Monitoring Station
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Hg
dry
depo
sitio
n (g
/km
2-ye
ar)
model avg
MSCE-HM
MSCE-HEM
DEHM
EMAP
Full Year 1999 Mercury Dry Deposition
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
53
In the following, the total model-predicted deposition (= wet + dry) is compared
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
54
February 1999
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
NL91 DE09 DE01 SE11 SE02 NO99 SE12 SE05 FI96
Stations from south to north
Tota
l Hg
depo
sitio
n,
g/km
2 /y
ADOMEMAPMSCE-HMMSCE_HM_HemHYSPLITDEHMCMAQ
Total Modeled Hg Deposition (wet + dry)
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
55
Total Modeled Hg Deposition (wet + dry)August 1999
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
NL91 DE09 DE01 SE11 SE02 NO99 SE12 SE05 FI96
Stations from south to north
Tota
l Hg
depo
sitio
n,
g/km
2 /y
ADOMEMAPMSCE-HMMSCE-HM-HemHYSPLITDEHMCMAQ
Note: ADOM was not run for August, so for this graph, ADOM results for July were used
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
56
Total Modeled Hg Deposition (wet + dry)1999 as whole
0
5
10
15
20
NL91 DE09 DE01 SE11 SE02 NO99 SE12 SE05 FI96
Stations from south to north
Tota
l Hg
depo
sitio
n,
g/km
2 /y
EMAPMSCE-HM
MSCE-HM-HemDEHM
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
57
11903342400.391.03Maximum
7301641700.190.65MSCE-HM-Hem
10702612350.160.54MSCE-HM
300143760.100.24Minimum
PolandItalyThe UKDryWet
Total deposition over the countries in Feb 1999, kg
Deposition over polluted area in Feb
1999, g/km2Range
EMEP model results in relation to the other models
EMEP Intercomparison Study of Numerical Models for Long-Range Atmospheric Transport of Mercury
BudgetsDry DepWet DepRGMHg(p)Hg0Chemistry
Conclu-sions
Stage IIIStage IIStage IIntro-duction
58
Conclusions: Uncertainties in Mercury Modeling
• Elemental Hg in air - factor of 1.2• Particulate Hg in air - factor of 1.5• Oxidized gaseous Hg in air - factor of 5• Total Hg in precipitation - factor of 1.5• Wet deposition - factor of 2.0• Dry deposition - factor of 2.5• Balances for countries - factor of 2