Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Discussion Number 30

Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO DiscussionNumber 30

000

WTNT43 KNHC 192039

TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014

500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and

southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally

taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted

more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation

center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has

wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo

looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the

system has completed its transformation into an extratropical

cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is

consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is

expected during the next 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward

the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next

24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down

considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low

pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC

track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and

is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean

Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on

this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the

National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO

header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP




72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$

Forecaster Stewart

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Discussion Number 30

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