Athens, 9 June 06

© 2005 EU-MOP Consortium

Athens, 9 June 06

Elimination Units for Marine Oil Pollution

Oil Pollution Risk in EU Waters: Analysis & Results

Nikolaos P. VentikosLecturer, NTUA


• Target description

• Seeking answers to critical questions

• Maritime traffic regarding oil movement

• Priority areas according to EMSA

• Oil spill analysis for European waters

• Study of Environmental Data

• Risk Analysis in EU Waters

• Preliminary EU-MOP Application Profile

Overview


To conduct a thorough statistical/risk analysis in order to evaluate the risk of oil spills in European waters and develop a preliminary operational envelop for the deployment and application of the EU-MOP solution

Target Description


Seeking Answers to Critical Questions

What sea conditions will the EU-MOP units face in European waters?

• What types of oil will the EU-MOPs be called upon to confront?

• During which seasons most of the accidents/spills happen and therefore the EU-MOP units are expected to operate?

• What are the typical sizes of oil spills that the EU-MOP units will be called upon to confront?

• Which are the high risk areas for oil spillage and therefore deployment of the EU-MOP in EU waters?


Major oil trade movements in 2003 (x106 tons) Source: BP, EMSA

Maritime Oil Traffic

Indicative tanker traffic and volume of oil transported in 2001 Source: EMSA


Oil Industry in Europe: Ashore & Offshore

Major maritime traffic routes, major ports & major offshore installations in EU waters


Priority areas for additional response capacity Source: EMSA

Priority Areas for Additional Response


Oil Spill Trends in EU Waters

Oil spilled in Europe from 1990 to 2004 (spills > 7 tons)Source: ITOPF

Annual Distribution of Spills

y = -5,5887Ln(x) + 17,861

0

5

10

15

20

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Sp

ills

Total Number of SpillsTotal Number of Spills(Logarithmic)


Oil Spill Analysis for EU Waters

Mediterranean Sea

• Baltic Sea

• North Sea

• Kiel Canal

• English Channel

• British Islands

• European Atlantic (France, Spain and Portugal)


Oil Spill Analysis (Mediterranean Sea)

Spills in the Med. Sea according to Size (1990-2003) Source of Raw Data: REMPEC

Quantity of Spilled Oil by Spill Size

4762 ton/ 33%

61 ton/ 0.04%

9700 ton/ 67%

0-7 tons 7-700 tons >700 tons


y = 4,7984Ln(x) + 10,009

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Nu

mb

er

of

Ac

cid

en

ts

Unknown Spills

Near Spills Total Number of Incidents

Total Number of Incidents(Logarithmic)


Oil Spill Analysis (Baltic Sea)

Spills in the Baltic Sea according to Size (1990-2002) Source of Raw Data: HELCOM/MARIS

Distribution of Spills by Spill Size

72%

27%

1%

0-7 tons 7-700 tons >700 tons


Oil Spill Analysis (British Islands)

Fluctuation of number of spills per annum (1990-2003)


500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

Nu

mb

er

of

Ac

cid

en

tsSpills Number of Spills(Logarithmic)


Study of Environmental Data

Density Function of Hs (English Channel)Source : NTUA

Polar Histogram (%) of Mean Wave Direction, θ (English Channel)Source : NTUA


Study of Environmental Data

Distribution of wave direction for the coasts of Portugal and Galicia (Spain)

0

1020

30

40

5060

70

80

90

%

January

Febru

ary

Marc

h

April

May

June

July

August

Septe

mber

Octo

mber

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Wave Direction for points 44.00N,9.00W/40.00N,10.00W

Direction away from shore Direction towards shore


Risk Parameters (ordinal/ranking approach)

• Level of Past Spill Incidents

• Level of Tanker Traffic

• Basic Traffic Hazards

• Tanker Route Diverges or Merges with Traffic Flow

• Geographical Hazards of the Area of Interest

• Major Port Activities

• Major Refinery Activities

• Navigation Hazards

• Sea State Characteristics

• Particularly Sensitive Areas

• Level of Response Capacity

• Level of Financial and Environmental Impact

Risk Analysis in EU Waters


Assessment of risk ranking for selected areas in the Mediterranean Sea



Proposed Risk Areas in the EU Waters

Mediterranean Sea• The Aegean Sea• The Southern Region of Sicily (Straits of Sicily)• The North Adriatic Sea• The Straits of Gibraltar

Atlantic Front (European Atlantic)• The Galician Coast NW of Spain• The English Channel (e.g. its approaches)

North Sea• Off the Coasts of the Netherlands and Belgium• The UKCS and the Area of Offshore Oil & Gas Inst., NE of the UK

Baltic Sea• The Kiel Canal & the Entrance to the Baltic Sea• The Entrance to Gulf of Finland



Distribution of Risk Areas within EU waters



Operational & Environmental Envelop of the Med. Sea

• The expected wave height in the area of interest is highly unlikely to exceed the average value of 2 m

• Strong currents exist both in western and eastern Mediterranean Sea (e.g. Crete); units operating in these areas should have additional maneuverability

• Persistent oil types are responsible for most of the accidents and biggest portion of spilled quantities

• Most of the accidents with small spills (0-7 tons) involve oils with specific gravity between 0.85 and 0.95 while large spills (>700 tons) involve almost exclusively oils with specific gravity of more than 0.95

• The probability of occurrence of an accident is the same for all seasons

• The spilled quantities are much lower during winter time

• Most of the oil spills in this region belong to the small (0-7 ton) and medium category (7-700 ton) while the spilled quantity originates from few large accidents (>700) and medium ones

EU-MOP Preliminary Application Profile


Operational & Environmental Envelop of the E.A.

• The average expected wave height during the entire year can be above 3 m with the exception of summer when it falls below 2 m

• Most of the accidents and spilled oil quantity involve types of oil with specific gravity more than 0.95

• Most of the spills occur in autumn and summer

EU-MOP Preliminary Application Profile

Athens, 9 June 06

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