ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION...o 7,200 bbl/d commencing in 2020 at pipeline economics o Provides access...

28
ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION FOCUSED | EXECUTING | DELIVERING OCTOBER 2019 CORPORATE UPDATE

Transcript of ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION...o 7,200 bbl/d commencing in 2020 at pipeline economics o Provides access...

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ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATIONFOCUSED | EXECUTING | DELIVERINGOCTOBER 2019 CORPORATE UPDATE

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

ATHABASCA – PREMIER RESOURCE EXPOSURE

1

~40,000 boe/d87% liquids

90 year 2P RLI450 MMboe Proved1,280 MMboe 2P

MONTNEY

DUVERNAY

LIGHT OIL

LIGHT OIL CORNER

LEISMER

HANGINGSTONE

THERMAL OIL

Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

~$600MM EV~$425MM Liquidity

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

ATHABASCA – THE TRANSFORMATION

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PRODUCTION COST STRUCTURE

‐80%‐40%

‐80%

2015 2016 2017 2018

$486MM Light Oil JV with Murphy Oil

~$560MM Leismer 

acquisition from Equinor

~$400MM Contingent Bitumen Royalty 

$265MM infrastructure 

sale

Light Oil surpasses 

10,000 boe/d

Balance sheet refinancing with 5 year term

Corporate production 

~40,000 boe/d

20192019

Resourceappraisal

Fundingnot secured

Low riskdevelopment

Strong balance sheet

FCF outlook

DAPPS – debt adjusted production per share

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

$0

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Q3/18

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Q3/19

WCS

 Diff (U

S$/bbl)

WCS

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l)

WTI/WCS Diff (US$/bbl)WCS (C$/bbl)

CANADIAN HEAVY OIL OUTLOOK

CURRENT LANDSCAPE

o Government mandated curtailments have normalized inventories and differential volatility

o Crude by rail remains a necessary bridge to pipelines

MID‐TERM EGRESS +800MBBL/D

o Pipeline optimizations (Mainline, Keystone etc.)

o Incremental crude by rail (government contracts) 

o New capacity (ENB L3R)

LONG‐TERM (2022+) 

o 590,000 bbl/d Trans Mountain Expansion

o 830,000 bbl/d on Keystone XL

AB Gov’tCurtailmentAnnouncement

3

WCSB BASIN EGRESS

WESTERN CANADIAN SELECT PRICING

Source: Bloomberg

Strong Global Heavy Demand

ATH WCS differential expectation:

Mid‐term: <US$20    Long‐term (2022+) <$US15

Source: CAPP June 2019 production forecast

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

THERMAL OIL MARKET ACCESS & RISK MGMT

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THERMAL OIL EGRESSDIVERSIFYING SALES TO THE US GULF COAST 

o Capacity secured on Keystone open season  

o 7,200 bbl/d commencing in 2020 at pipeline economics 

o Provides access to heavy oil refineries in PADD III

HEDGING 

o Synthetic rail = apportionment protection + financial hedge

o Q4/19 16,000 bbl/d @ ~C$54 WCS

o 2020 8,000 bbl/d @ ~US$19.50 WCS diff

o Internal hedge = Light Oil production offsets Thermal Oil costs

o ~8,500 bbl/d short condensate 

o ~15 mmcf/d short gas 

LONG TERM EGRESS SECURED FOR DILBIT

o 20,000 bbl/d on TMX Expansion

o 25,000 bbl/d on Keystone XL

Enbridge Waupisoo

Enbridge South Cheecham Terminal

Edmonton

Hardisty

Storage130,000 bbl for apportionment management

Trans Mountain Expansion20,000 bbl/d mid‐2022International markets

TC Energy KeystoneUSGC (PADD III)7,200 bbl/d

TC Energy Keystone XL25,000 bbl/d 2022

Enbridge Mainline Mid‐west (PADD II)(common carrier line)

DILBIT SALES EXPOSURE (2020E)

Current EgressLT Egress AOC Thermal LeasesUS Gulf 

Coast~20%

Alberta WCS~60%

Hedged WCS Diff

~20%

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

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ATHABASCA – DRIVE TO FREE CASH FLOW

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SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION 

o Low corporate sustaining capital 

• ~$10/boe

o Flexible Light Oil development

o Operated liquids rich Montney 

o Duvernay funded through joint venture

COMPELLING FREE CASH FLOW OPPORTUNITY

o Competitive netbacks (2019 H1/19)

o $28.75/boe Light Oil 

o $26.25/bbl Leismer 

o Free cash flow optionality in the future 

PRODUCTION

CAPITAL

Capital offset by: $265MM 

infrastructure sale

C

Annual unhedged funds flow sensitivity~C$80MM for US$5 WTI

2019: Funds flow sensitivity reflects H1 2019 actuals and flat pricing for remainder of year2020: Illustrative capital scenario with balanced investment across Light & Thermal Oil

FUNDS FLOW (US$17.50 WCS DIFF)C

FCF = Free Cash Flow (Funds Flow – Capital Expenditures)Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

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US$55 WTIUS$60 WTIUS$65 WTI

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

ATHABASCA – 2019 OUTLOOK

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CORPORATE 

o Capital: $135MM

o Production: 37,500 – 40,000 boe/d (88% liquids)

LIGHT OIL 

o Capital: $35MM net

o Production: 10,000 – 11,000 boe/d (55% liquids) 

o Montney: drill multi‐well pad

o Duvernay: self funded through joint venture capital carry

• ATH pays 7.5% to earn a 30%WI ($256MM gross) 

THERMAL OIL 

o Capital: $100MM 

o Production: 27,500 – 29,000 bbl/d

o Activity: Leismer L7 pad, steam debottleneck,and non‐condensable gas implementation

2019 NET DEBT / FUNDS FLOW 

2019 FUNDS FLOW OUTLOOK

Sensitivity tables reflect H1 2019 actualsFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

WTI (US$)

$55 $60 $65 $70

‐$15.00 $150 $165 $185 $205

‐$17.50 $140 $155 $175 $195

‐$20.00 $130 $145 $165 $185WCS

 Diff (U

S$)

WTI (US$)

$55 $60 $65 $70

‐$15.00 2.1x 1.8x 1.5x 1.3x

‐$17.50 2.4x 2.0x 1.7x 1.4x

‐$20.00 2.6x 2.2x 1.8x 1.6xWCS

 Diff (U

S$)

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

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NVA VII

BIR

CPG

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POU

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MEG CJ

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D/CF

% Cha

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% Change in CF (US$65 WTI vs. Strip US$56)ATH D/CF (US$65 WTI)ATH D/CF (Strip US$56 WTI)

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Liquids Weighted Netback (>40% liquids)Gas Weighted Netback (>60% gas)

ATHABASCA – DIFFERENTIATED OIL EXPOSURE

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COMPLEMENTARY ASSETS

o Diversified operating income (35% LO & 65% TO)

o Top decile Light Oil netbacks ($28.75/boe H1/19)

o Competitive Leismer operating breakeven ($43/bbl WTI)

o Minimal gas exposure (~15 mmcf/d net short) 

UNIQUE POSITIONING AMONGST PEERS 

o Compelling valuation

o 1.7x 2020e EV/DACF vs. peers at 2.9x*

o Low net debt: ~$240MM (Q2/19)

o 0.6x 2020e D/CF vs. peers at 1.2x*

o Strong liquidity: ~$425MM (Q2/19)

PEER LEADING LIGHT OIL NETBACKS (Q2/19)

CASH FLOW SENSITIVITY (2020E) 

Peters & Co. Research – Oil Price Sensitivities (9‐16‐2019). Upside US$65 WTI, Strip US$56 WTI, US$16.75 WCS differentials* 2020 valuation and debt metrics based on US$65 WTI & US$16.75 WCS differentials

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LIGHT OIL MONTNEY & DUVERNAY

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                     9

PLACID MONTNEY

HIGHLIGHTS – OPERATED 70%WI

o 80,000 gross prospective acres

• 200 well development inventory1

• $26.50/boe operating netback (H1/19)

• 200 – 300 bbl/mmcf initial free liquids

PLACID PRODUCTION (NET)ACTIVITY OVERVIEW 

o 2016 – 2018: 32 wells (7 pads) on‐stream 

o Winter 2019: resume activity 

o Drill multi‐well pad H2/19 (4 wells) 

o Readiness to complete & tie‐in (11 wells)

Wells

ATH MontneyLicensed Montney

PLACID ACTIVITY16‐30 Pad

7 DUCS

2‐5 PadSpud Sept

Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

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PLACID MONTNEY – STRONG ECONOMICS

PRODUCTION PLOT 

INTERNAL TYPE WELL ECONOMICS

INTERNAL TYPE WELL PARAMETERS

CUMULATIVE CONDENSATE PRODUCTION 

~25 bbl/mmcf plant recovered NGLs included in IPs & EURs 

200 – 300 bbl/mmcfinitial free liquids cuts 

(~60% liquids)

10Flat long term pricing assumed in internal type well economicsUS$7.50 MSW diff, C$1.50 AECO, 0.75 FX

Rate Sales Gas C5+  liquids

boe/d mmcf/d  bbl/d %

IP30 1,000 2.6 501 57%

IP90 875 2.4 421 55%

IP365 600 1.8 262 49%

mboe bcf mbbl %

EUR 675 2.2 246 45%

US$WTI $55 $60 $65

Well Cost $MM ~$8MM drill & completed (2,750m hz)

Payback months 26 21 18

IRR BT % 35% 49% 64%

NPV10 BT $MM $2.6 $3.8 $4.9

Netback $/boe $25.25 $28.25 $31.25

PDP F&D  $/boe 11.8 $11.75 $11.75

Recycle Ratio x 2.1 2.4 2.7

Cap Effcy (IP365) $/boed 12985.5 $12,985 $12,985

Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

KAYBOB EAST

SIMONETTE 

KAYBOB DUVERNAY

*Facility restricted and liquids trucked. IPs include free liquids and raw gasFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

Upcoming wells & next phase of activity (# of wells per pad)

KAYBOB NORTH

# 11

KAYBOB WEST

TWO CREEKS

SAXON

DUVERNAY HIGHLIGHTS

o Significant resource exposure (~210,000 acres)

o Strong condensate yields (200 – 1,000 bbl/mmcf)

o Royalty advantage (5% vs. ~25% US shale plays) 

o Majors are active (Shell & Chevron)

JOINT VENTURE HIGHLIGHTS (30% WI)

o Cash/carry structure minimizes financial exposure

o $1B gross 4 yr program; $75MM net to retain 30%WI

o 2019 budget: volatile oil delineation

o $256MM gross (~$20MM net); 19 spuds 

1

1

2 2

2

1

KAYBOB DUVERNAY ‐ INDUSTRY AND JV ACTIVITY16‐25 well*

IP30 875 boe/d (>90% liquids)IP120 775 boe/d (90% liquids)

Legend

Volatile Oil Window(>400 bbl/mmcf initial CGR)Gas Condensate Window(<400 bbl/mmcf initial CGR)Industry Duvernay Hz WellsATH Duvernay Hz Wells

2

2

1

3 well pad (8‐3) – IP avg per wellIP30 ~1,500 boe/d (90% liquids)IP60 ~1,300 boe/d (88% liquids)

2 well pad (16‐29)* – IP avg per wellIP30 775 boe/d (>90% liquids)IP60 750 boe/d (>90% liquids)

2 well pad (5‐19)* – IP avg per wellIP30 725 boe/d (95% liquids)IP60 600 boe/d (>90% liquids)

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                     12

DUVERNAY – COMPETITIVE SHALE PLAY

KAYBOB WEST & EAST OILUNIQUE EXPOSURE TO THE OIL WINDOW

o Significant running room

o ~170,000 acres; ~800 well inventory1

o Transitioning to development in select areas 

o Achieved $8 – 9MM well costs at Kaybob West 

o High quality condensate – local demand

o 40 – 50⁰ API

TWO CREEKS OUTPERFORMING EAST SHALE BASIN 

o Testing the shallower window at Two Creeks

o ~2,700m vertical depth

o Line of sight to pad efficiencies

o <C$7MM development well cost target

Single well economics at $6.75MM D&C. Flat long term pricing (US$60 WTI, US$5 C5+ diff, C$1.50 AECO, 0.75 FXFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

SIMONETTE OIL 

TWO CREEKS VS. EAST SHALE BASIN DUVERNAY

3 WELL PAD (8‐3) IP AVG PER WELL2 WELL PAD (5‐16) IP AVG PER WELL

4 WELLS (16‐29 & 5‐19) IP AVG PER WELL

ESB AVERAGE (120 WELLS)   

16‐25 NORTHERN STEP‐OUTKAYBOB WEST & EAST (26 WELLS)

ESB TOP QUARTILE

Competitive economics (McDaniel’s bookings)

IP30 875 boe/d & EUR 450mmboe (84% liquids)

16 month payout & $5MM NPV10

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THERMAL OILLEISMER & HANGINGSTONE

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

THERMAL OIL

LEISMER – TOP TIER OIL SANDS PROJECT

o ~20,000 bbl/d; ~3.5x SOR

o 40,000 bbl/d AER approval 

o 675 mmbbl 2P reserves; 90 year 2P RLI 

o US$43 WTI operating breakeven 

HANGINGSTONE – LOW SUSTAINING CAPITAL 

o ~9,000 bbl/d; ~4.5x SOR 

o 177 mmbbl 2P reserves; 55 year 2P RLI 

o US$53 WTI operating breakeven 

CORNER – LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT

o Top tier lease with high quality reservoir

o 40,000 bbl/d AER approval in place 

REGIONAL MAP

Hangingstone 

Leismer

Corner

14Breakevens reflect a US$17.50 WCS diff, US$5 C5 diff, C$1.50 AECO, 0.75 FXFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

THERMAL OIL – LEISMER ACTIVITY

15

103/07‐22 CORE

HIGHLIGHTS o L7 sustaining pad

• 1,250m laterals (50% longer) and flow control equipped

• First steam in June with production expected in Q4/19

• >4,000 bbl/d pad production forecast

• Steam debottleneck 

• Optimize field steam distribution and minimize downtime 

• Expanding non‐condensable gas injection across the field

LEISMER DEVELOPMENT PAD 7 OVERVIEW

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

o The World Needs Canada’s Energy

o Energy Demand to grow by 27% by 2040 

o ALL forms of energy are needed

o Canada is a global leader in innovation & environmental stewardship 

o If Canadian Energy standards were applied across the world GHG emissions would decrease 23% (~100MM car equivalent) 

o Oil Sands 0.15% of world emissions

o Canada needs a robust energy sector

o >$40B in annual capital investment

o Employment far reaching (533,000 jobs), largest employer of Indigenous people 

CANADIAN ENERGY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE

16Sources: CAPP, IEA, “Global carbon intensity of crude oil production” published Aug 2018 in Science Mag

The World Needs More Canadian Energy

WORLD ENERGY MIX (2016 – 2040)

EMISSIONS IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXTChina 24%

US 13%

EU 7%

India 7%

Russia 4%

Japan 3%

Canada <1.5%

Australia 1%

Other 40%

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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

2019 2020Q3 2019  Q4 2019  Annual

WTI / WCS Differential Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$Financial  Swaps 15,000 (28.35) (21.54) 21,000 (26.57) (20.19) 7,995 (25.82) (19.62)

WTI Swap Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$Financial  Swaps 12,000 80.59 61.25 18,000 79.86 60.69

Collars 2,000 80.00‐86.10 60.80‐65.44 2,000 80.00‐86.10 60.80‐65.44 1,000 65.13‐78.95‐85.53 49.50‐60.00‐65.00

CORPORATE SNAPSHOT & HEDGING

18

HEDGING OVERVIEW

Basic Shares Outstanding 523 MM

Market Capitalization ($0.70/sh) $366 MM

Q2/19 Net Debt $240 MM

Total Enterprise Value $607 MM

Term Debt (9.875% due Feb 2022) US$450 MM

Undrawn Reserve Based Facility $120 MM

Funding Capacity / Liquidity  $478 / $424 MM

Tax Pools (total / NCL & CEE)  $3.1 / $2.0 BillionQ2/19 Net debt = FV term debt + (Current Liabilities ‐ Current Assets adj. for risk management contracts)Funding capacity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities + Duvernay capital carryLiquidity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities

CAPITALIZATION OVERVIEW (ATH‐TSX)

2020 WTI contract  is a three way collarFX Forward ‐ August 2019 US$22.2 MM interest payment hedged at 1.3250 US/CAD rateUS$ price converted at 1.33 US/CAD rate

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

H1 2019 HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUED STRONG FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

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~$425MM liquidity2019e ~2x D/CF @ $60 WTI

$89MM Funds Flow$30MM Free Cash Flow

Strong Netbacks$28.70/boe Light Oil

$22.42/bbl Thermal Oil

36,568 boe/d86% liquids

Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes

$59MM Capex (net)52% Thermal / 48% Light Oil

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

Strong ESG performance supported by commitment to transparency and continual improvement

CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY

20

ENVIRONMENTInnovation and sustainable 

development

SOCIALSafety and community 

involvement core to our culture

GOVERNANCECommitted to the highest standards 

of corporate governance

We believe that strong performance in health, safety, and environment is essential to achieving our 

business goals and meeting the needs of stakeholders. We are focused on being a valued partner in local 

communities and industry programs while developing Alberta’s energy resources responsibly. We have 

developed policies, programs and strong governance practices to be consistent with these objectives. 

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY – ENVIRONMENT

Sources: National Pollutant Release Inventory, Alberta Directive 54 filings, ARC Energy Research Institute, Alberta Energy Regulator.

CORPORATE EMISSIONS INTENSITY 

LIABILITY MANAGEMENT RATING WATER RECYCLING RATES (2018)

GLOBAL EMISSIONS

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Alberta Liability Management Rating (LMR) 16.0 

94% of Thermal Oil reservoir water recycled for steam generation 

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

TRIF

CAPP Peer Group

AOC

CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY – SOCIAL

22TRIF = Total Reportable Injury FrequencyTRIF peer data sourced from CAPP

SAFETY

o 2018 Total Recordable Injury Frequency: 0.36 

o Exemplary safety performance key to business results and stakeholder needs

o Behavior Based Safety embedded in culture

o Corporate scorecard measures quantifiable safety metrics

COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT

o Support communities where we live and operate

o Some local causes that we support: 

AOC has a strong track record of safe operations

SAFETY BENCHMARKING (2018)

Fox Creek HospitalFt. McMurray Hospital Lac La Biche Hospital 

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY – GOVERNANCE

GOVERNANCE OVERVIEW

o AOC’s Board is responsible for the stewardship of the Company and provides independent and effective leadership 

o Some key areas of oversight include: 

o Health, safety and environmental performance 

o Strategic direction and risk management 

o Succession and compensation

o Ethics and compliance

o AOC’s policies are available on our website and include: 

o Board Diversity Policy

o Code of Business Ethics 

o Health & Safety Policy

o Shareholder Rights Plan 

o Board Mandates (Chair, Audit, Reserves, Compensation)Female Executive Representation (3 of 5)

Independent Board and Chair (5 of 7)

Female Board Representation (1 of 7)

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

MANAGEMENT TEAM AND BOARD

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BOARD OF DIRECTORSMANAGEMENT TEAMRobert Broen, P.Eng.President & Chief Executive Officer 

Kim Anderson, CAChief Financial Officer 

Angela AveryGeneral Counsel & VP Business Development

Karla Ingoldsby, P. Eng.VP Thermal Oil 

Matt Taylor, CFAVP Capital Markets & Communications 

Ronald EckhardtChair of the Board, member of the Reserves Committee

Robert Broen, P.Eng.President & Chief Executive Officer 

Bryan BegleyChair of the Compensation & Governance Committee and member of the Reserves Committee

Anne Downey, P. Eng. Chair of the Reserves Committee

Thomas EbbernMember of the Compensation & Governance Committee and member of the Audit Committee

Carlos Fierro Member of the Compensation & Governance Committee and member of the Audit Committee

Marshall McRae, CAChair of the Audit Committee 

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                    

Slide Endnotes

Multi‐year outlook price assumptions:

1 (1) Liquidity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities(2) Consolidated reserves as at December 31, 2018 evaluated by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd.(3) Reserve life index calculated on corporate 2P reserves of 1,280mmboe and ~40,000 boe/d production (4) For additional information regarding Athabasca’s reserves and resources estimates, please see “Independent Reserve and Resource Evaluations” in the Company’s 2018 

Annual Information Form which is available on Company’s website or on SEDAR www.sedar.com

5/6/7/18 (1) Historical financial and operating results found on Company’s website or on SEDAR www.sedar.com(2) Liquidity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities(3) Netbacks = operating netbacks prior to realized hedging gains (losses) and other income(4) FCF = funds flow – capital expenditures(5) Net debt = FV term debt + Current Liabilities (adj. for risk management) ‐ Current Assets (adj. for risk management)(6) 2019e Net Debt to Funds Flow = Forecasted year‐end net debt / forecasted funds flow 

9/10/11/12 (1) Gross Montney inventory based on management estimate of 4 wells per sectionGross Duvernay acres and inventories. Well inventory based on management estimate of 4‐6 wells per section and ~2,750m laterals. See reader advisory “Drilling Locations” for more detail

(2) Operating netback is prior to realized hedging gains (losses) and other income

14 (1) Thermal Oil reserve life index calculated on 852mmbbl 2P reserves (Leismer & Hangingstone) and 29,000 bbl/d production (2) Thermal Oil McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. reserve evaluation as at December 31, 2018 (675mmboe Leismer, 177mmboe Hangingstone, 353mmboe Corner)

ENDNOTES & RISK MANAGEMENT

25

2018 H1 2019 H2 2019 2019e 2020e

WTI US$/bbl $65.50 $57.36 $60.00 $58.47 $60.00

FX C$/US$ 0.77 0.75 0.77 0.76 0.75

Heavy Diff US$/bbl -$26.31 -$11.48 -$17.50 -$13.62 -$17.50

WCS C$/bbl $50.61 $61.21 $55.51 $59.22 $56.67

MSW Diff US$/bbl -$11.13 -$4.73 -$8.75 -$6.20 -$10.00

MSW (Ed. Par. Light Oil) C$/bbl $70.27 $70.00 $66.94 $69.01 $66.67

C5 Diff US$/bbl -$4.17 -$4.13 -$5.14 -$4.68 -$5.00

Condensate C$/bbl $79.34 $71.02 $71.65 $71.02 $73.33

AECO C$/mcf $1.48 $1.82 $1.97 $1.66 $1.77

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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)                     26

Forward Looking Statements

This Presentation contains forward‐looking information that involves various risks, uncertainties and other factors. All information other than statements of historical fact is forward‐looking information. The use of anyof the words “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “believe”, “contemplate”, “target”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward‐looking information.The forward‐looking information is not historical fact, but rather is based on the Company’s current plans, objectives, goals, strategies, estimates, assumptions and projections about the Company’s industry, businessand future operating and financial results. This information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in suchforward‐looking information. No assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward‐looking information included in this Presentation should not be unduly relied upon. Thisinformation speaks only as of the date of this Presentation. In particular, this Presentation contains forward‐looking information pertaining to, but not limited to, the following: the Company’s 2019 guidance and multi‐year outlook; type well economic metrics; estimated recovery factors and reserve life index; and other matters.

Information relating to "reserves" is also deemed to be forward‐looking information, as it involves the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantitiespredicted or estimated and that the reserves can be profitably produced in the future. With respect to forward‐looking information contained in this Presentation, assumptions have been made regarding, among otherthings: commodity outlook; the regulatory framework in the jurisdictions in which the Company conducts business; the Company’s financial and operational flexibility; the Company’s, capital expenditure outlook,financial sustainability and ability to access sources of funding; geological and engineering estimates in respect of Athabasca’s reserves and resources; and other matters.

Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in this forward‐looking information as a result of the risk factors set forth in the Company’s Annual Information Form (“AIF”) dated March 6, 2019 that isavailable on SEDAR at www.sedar.com, including, but not limited to: fluctuations in commodity prices, foreign exchange and interest rates; political and general economic, market and business conditions in Alberta,Canada, the United States and globally; changes to royalty and tax regimes, environmental risks and hazards; the potential for management estimates, assumptions and regulatory interpretations to be inaccurate; thedependence on Murphy as the operator of the Company’s Duvernay assets; the capital requirements of Athabasca’s projects and the ability to obtain financing; operational and business interruption risks; failure bycounterparties to make payments or perform their operational or other obligations to Athabasca in compliance with the terms of contractual arrangements; aboriginal claims; failure to obtain regulatory approvals ormaintain compliance with regulatory requirements; uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of reserves and resources; litigation risk; environmental risks and hazards; reliance on third party infrastructure;hedging risks; insurance risks; claims made in respect of Athabasca’s operations, properties or assets; risks related to Athabasca’s amended credit facilities and senior secured notes; and risks related to Athabasca’scommon shares.

For important additional information regarding Athabasca’s reserves and resources estimates and the evaluations that were conducted by McDaniel & Associates, please see “Independent Reserve and ResourceEvaluations” in the Company’s most recent AIF. The forward‐looking statements included in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. The forward looking statements contained herein aremade as of the date hereof and Athabasca does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward‐looking statements except as required by applicable securities laws.

Drilling Locations: The 800 Duvernay drilling locations referenced include: 50 proved undeveloped or non‐producing locations and 35 probable undeveloped locations for a total of 85 booked locations with the balancebeing unbooked locations. The 200 Montney drilling locations include: 77 proved undeveloped locations and 12 probable undeveloped locations for a total of 89 booked locations with the balance being unbookedlocations. Proved undeveloped locations and probable undeveloped locations are booked and derived from the Company's most recent independent reserves evaluation as prepared by McDaniel as of December 31,2018 and account for drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Unbooked locations are internal management estimates. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reservesor resources (including contingent or prospective). Unbooked locations have been identified by management as an estimation of Athabasca’s multi‐year drilling activities expected to occur over the next two decadesbased on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production and reserves information. There is no certainty that the Company will drill all unbooked drilling locations and if drilled there is no certaintythat such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The drilling locations on which the Company will actually drill wells, including the number and timing thereof is ultimatelydependent upon the availability of funding, oil and natural gas prices, provincial fiscal and royalty policies, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors.

Additional Oil and Gas Information:

“BOEs” may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil equivalent (6 Mcf: 1 bbl) is based on an energy equivalency conversionmethod primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil issignificantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.

Test Results and Initial Production Rates: The well test results and initial production rates provided in this presentation should be considered to be preliminary, except as otherwise indicated. Test results and initialproduction rates disclosed herein may not necessarily be indicative of long term performance or of ultimate recovery.

Non‐GAAP Financial Measures:

The "Adjusted Funds Flow”, "Light Oil Operating Income", “Light Oil Operating Netback”, “Light Oil Capital Expenditures Net of Capital‐Carry”, "Thermal Oil Operating Income", "Thermal Oil Operating Netback",“Consolidated Operating Income”, “Consolidated Operating Netback”, “Consolidated Capital Expenditures Net of Capital‐Carry” and “Net Debt” financial measures contained in this Presentation do not havestandardized meanings which are prescribed by IFRS and they are considered to be non‐GAAP measures. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and should not beconsidered in isolation with measures that are prepared in accordance with IFRS. Complete definitions are outlined in the Company’s Q2 2019 MD&A and financials available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) or theCompany’s website (www.atha.com) .

READER ADVISORY

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