ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION...o 7,200 bbl/d commencing in 2020 at pipeline economics o Provides access...
Transcript of ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION...o 7,200 bbl/d commencing in 2020 at pipeline economics o Provides access...
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ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATIONFOCUSED | EXECUTING | DELIVERINGOCTOBER 2019 CORPORATE UPDATE
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
ATHABASCA – PREMIER RESOURCE EXPOSURE
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~40,000 boe/d87% liquids
90 year 2P RLI450 MMboe Proved1,280 MMboe 2P
MONTNEY
DUVERNAY
LIGHT OIL
LIGHT OIL CORNER
LEISMER
HANGINGSTONE
THERMAL OIL
Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
~$600MM EV~$425MM Liquidity
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
ATHABASCA – THE TRANSFORMATION
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PRODUCTION COST STRUCTURE
‐80%‐40%
‐80%
2015 2016 2017 2018
$486MM Light Oil JV with Murphy Oil
~$560MM Leismer
acquisition from Equinor
~$400MM Contingent Bitumen Royalty
$265MM infrastructure
sale
Light Oil surpasses
10,000 boe/d
Balance sheet refinancing with 5 year term
Corporate production
~40,000 boe/d
20192019
Resourceappraisal
Fundingnot secured
Low riskdevelopment
Strong balance sheet
FCF outlook
DAPPS – debt adjusted production per share
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
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CANADIAN HEAVY OIL OUTLOOK
CURRENT LANDSCAPE
o Government mandated curtailments have normalized inventories and differential volatility
o Crude by rail remains a necessary bridge to pipelines
MID‐TERM EGRESS +800MBBL/D
o Pipeline optimizations (Mainline, Keystone etc.)
o Incremental crude by rail (government contracts)
o New capacity (ENB L3R)
LONG‐TERM (2022+)
o 590,000 bbl/d Trans Mountain Expansion
o 830,000 bbl/d on Keystone XL
AB Gov’tCurtailmentAnnouncement
3
WCSB BASIN EGRESS
WESTERN CANADIAN SELECT PRICING
Source: Bloomberg
Strong Global Heavy Demand
ATH WCS differential expectation:
Mid‐term: <US$20 Long‐term (2022+) <$US15
Source: CAPP June 2019 production forecast
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
THERMAL OIL MARKET ACCESS & RISK MGMT
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THERMAL OIL EGRESSDIVERSIFYING SALES TO THE US GULF COAST
o Capacity secured on Keystone open season
o 7,200 bbl/d commencing in 2020 at pipeline economics
o Provides access to heavy oil refineries in PADD III
HEDGING
o Synthetic rail = apportionment protection + financial hedge
o Q4/19 16,000 bbl/d @ ~C$54 WCS
o 2020 8,000 bbl/d @ ~US$19.50 WCS diff
o Internal hedge = Light Oil production offsets Thermal Oil costs
o ~8,500 bbl/d short condensate
o ~15 mmcf/d short gas
LONG TERM EGRESS SECURED FOR DILBIT
o 20,000 bbl/d on TMX Expansion
o 25,000 bbl/d on Keystone XL
Enbridge Waupisoo
Enbridge South Cheecham Terminal
Edmonton
Hardisty
Storage130,000 bbl for apportionment management
Trans Mountain Expansion20,000 bbl/d mid‐2022International markets
TC Energy KeystoneUSGC (PADD III)7,200 bbl/d
TC Energy Keystone XL25,000 bbl/d 2022
Enbridge Mainline Mid‐west (PADD II)(common carrier line)
DILBIT SALES EXPOSURE (2020E)
Current EgressLT Egress AOC Thermal LeasesUS Gulf
Coast~20%
Alberta WCS~60%
Hedged WCS Diff
~20%
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
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ATHABASCA – DRIVE TO FREE CASH FLOW
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SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION
o Low corporate sustaining capital
• ~$10/boe
o Flexible Light Oil development
o Operated liquids rich Montney
o Duvernay funded through joint venture
COMPELLING FREE CASH FLOW OPPORTUNITY
o Competitive netbacks (2019 H1/19)
o $28.75/boe Light Oil
o $26.25/bbl Leismer
o Free cash flow optionality in the future
PRODUCTION
CAPITAL
Capital offset by: $265MM
infrastructure sale
C
Annual unhedged funds flow sensitivity~C$80MM for US$5 WTI
2019: Funds flow sensitivity reflects H1 2019 actuals and flat pricing for remainder of year2020: Illustrative capital scenario with balanced investment across Light & Thermal Oil
FUNDS FLOW (US$17.50 WCS DIFF)C
FCF = Free Cash Flow (Funds Flow – Capital Expenditures)Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
ATHABASCA – 2019 OUTLOOK
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CORPORATE
o Capital: $135MM
o Production: 37,500 – 40,000 boe/d (88% liquids)
LIGHT OIL
o Capital: $35MM net
o Production: 10,000 – 11,000 boe/d (55% liquids)
o Montney: drill multi‐well pad
o Duvernay: self funded through joint venture capital carry
• ATH pays 7.5% to earn a 30%WI ($256MM gross)
THERMAL OIL
o Capital: $100MM
o Production: 27,500 – 29,000 bbl/d
o Activity: Leismer L7 pad, steam debottleneck,and non‐condensable gas implementation
2019 NET DEBT / FUNDS FLOW
2019 FUNDS FLOW OUTLOOK
Sensitivity tables reflect H1 2019 actualsFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
WTI (US$)
$55 $60 $65 $70
‐$15.00 $150 $165 $185 $205
‐$17.50 $140 $155 $175 $195
‐$20.00 $130 $145 $165 $185WCS
Diff (U
S$)
WTI (US$)
$55 $60 $65 $70
‐$15.00 2.1x 1.8x 1.5x 1.3x
‐$17.50 2.4x 2.0x 1.7x 1.4x
‐$20.00 2.6x 2.2x 1.8x 1.6xWCS
Diff (U
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
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ATHABASCA – DIFFERENTIATED OIL EXPOSURE
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COMPLEMENTARY ASSETS
o Diversified operating income (35% LO & 65% TO)
o Top decile Light Oil netbacks ($28.75/boe H1/19)
o Competitive Leismer operating breakeven ($43/bbl WTI)
o Minimal gas exposure (~15 mmcf/d net short)
UNIQUE POSITIONING AMONGST PEERS
o Compelling valuation
o 1.7x 2020e EV/DACF vs. peers at 2.9x*
o Low net debt: ~$240MM (Q2/19)
o 0.6x 2020e D/CF vs. peers at 1.2x*
o Strong liquidity: ~$425MM (Q2/19)
PEER LEADING LIGHT OIL NETBACKS (Q2/19)
CASH FLOW SENSITIVITY (2020E)
Peters & Co. Research – Oil Price Sensitivities (9‐16‐2019). Upside US$65 WTI, Strip US$56 WTI, US$16.75 WCS differentials* 2020 valuation and debt metrics based on US$65 WTI & US$16.75 WCS differentials
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LIGHT OIL MONTNEY & DUVERNAY
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH) 9
PLACID MONTNEY
HIGHLIGHTS – OPERATED 70%WI
o 80,000 gross prospective acres
• 200 well development inventory1
• $26.50/boe operating netback (H1/19)
• 200 – 300 bbl/mmcf initial free liquids
PLACID PRODUCTION (NET)ACTIVITY OVERVIEW
o 2016 – 2018: 32 wells (7 pads) on‐stream
o Winter 2019: resume activity
o Drill multi‐well pad H2/19 (4 wells)
o Readiness to complete & tie‐in (11 wells)
Wells
ATH MontneyLicensed Montney
PLACID ACTIVITY16‐30 Pad
7 DUCS
2‐5 PadSpud Sept
Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
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PLACID MONTNEY – STRONG ECONOMICS
PRODUCTION PLOT
INTERNAL TYPE WELL ECONOMICS
INTERNAL TYPE WELL PARAMETERS
CUMULATIVE CONDENSATE PRODUCTION
~25 bbl/mmcf plant recovered NGLs included in IPs & EURs
200 – 300 bbl/mmcfinitial free liquids cuts
(~60% liquids)
10Flat long term pricing assumed in internal type well economicsUS$7.50 MSW diff, C$1.50 AECO, 0.75 FX
Rate Sales Gas C5+ liquids
boe/d mmcf/d bbl/d %
IP30 1,000 2.6 501 57%
IP90 875 2.4 421 55%
IP365 600 1.8 262 49%
mboe bcf mbbl %
EUR 675 2.2 246 45%
US$WTI $55 $60 $65
Well Cost $MM ~$8MM drill & completed (2,750m hz)
Payback months 26 21 18
IRR BT % 35% 49% 64%
NPV10 BT $MM $2.6 $3.8 $4.9
Netback $/boe $25.25 $28.25 $31.25
PDP F&D $/boe 11.8 $11.75 $11.75
Recycle Ratio x 2.1 2.4 2.7
Cap Effcy (IP365) $/boed 12985.5 $12,985 $12,985
Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
KAYBOB EAST
SIMONETTE
KAYBOB DUVERNAY
*Facility restricted and liquids trucked. IPs include free liquids and raw gasFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
Upcoming wells & next phase of activity (# of wells per pad)
KAYBOB NORTH
# 11
KAYBOB WEST
TWO CREEKS
SAXON
DUVERNAY HIGHLIGHTS
o Significant resource exposure (~210,000 acres)
o Strong condensate yields (200 – 1,000 bbl/mmcf)
o Royalty advantage (5% vs. ~25% US shale plays)
o Majors are active (Shell & Chevron)
JOINT VENTURE HIGHLIGHTS (30% WI)
o Cash/carry structure minimizes financial exposure
o $1B gross 4 yr program; $75MM net to retain 30%WI
o 2019 budget: volatile oil delineation
o $256MM gross (~$20MM net); 19 spuds
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KAYBOB DUVERNAY ‐ INDUSTRY AND JV ACTIVITY16‐25 well*
IP30 875 boe/d (>90% liquids)IP120 775 boe/d (90% liquids)
Legend
Volatile Oil Window(>400 bbl/mmcf initial CGR)Gas Condensate Window(<400 bbl/mmcf initial CGR)Industry Duvernay Hz WellsATH Duvernay Hz Wells
2
2
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3 well pad (8‐3) – IP avg per wellIP30 ~1,500 boe/d (90% liquids)IP60 ~1,300 boe/d (88% liquids)
2 well pad (16‐29)* – IP avg per wellIP30 775 boe/d (>90% liquids)IP60 750 boe/d (>90% liquids)
2 well pad (5‐19)* – IP avg per wellIP30 725 boe/d (95% liquids)IP60 600 boe/d (>90% liquids)
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH) 12
DUVERNAY – COMPETITIVE SHALE PLAY
KAYBOB WEST & EAST OILUNIQUE EXPOSURE TO THE OIL WINDOW
o Significant running room
o ~170,000 acres; ~800 well inventory1
o Transitioning to development in select areas
o Achieved $8 – 9MM well costs at Kaybob West
o High quality condensate – local demand
o 40 – 50⁰ API
TWO CREEKS OUTPERFORMING EAST SHALE BASIN
o Testing the shallower window at Two Creeks
o ~2,700m vertical depth
o Line of sight to pad efficiencies
o <C$7MM development well cost target
Single well economics at $6.75MM D&C. Flat long term pricing (US$60 WTI, US$5 C5+ diff, C$1.50 AECO, 0.75 FXFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
SIMONETTE OIL
TWO CREEKS VS. EAST SHALE BASIN DUVERNAY
3 WELL PAD (8‐3) IP AVG PER WELL2 WELL PAD (5‐16) IP AVG PER WELL
4 WELLS (16‐29 & 5‐19) IP AVG PER WELL
ESB AVERAGE (120 WELLS)
16‐25 NORTHERN STEP‐OUTKAYBOB WEST & EAST (26 WELLS)
ESB TOP QUARTILE
Competitive economics (McDaniel’s bookings)
IP30 875 boe/d & EUR 450mmboe (84% liquids)
16 month payout & $5MM NPV10
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THERMAL OILLEISMER & HANGINGSTONE
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
THERMAL OIL
LEISMER – TOP TIER OIL SANDS PROJECT
o ~20,000 bbl/d; ~3.5x SOR
o 40,000 bbl/d AER approval
o 675 mmbbl 2P reserves; 90 year 2P RLI
o US$43 WTI operating breakeven
HANGINGSTONE – LOW SUSTAINING CAPITAL
o ~9,000 bbl/d; ~4.5x SOR
o 177 mmbbl 2P reserves; 55 year 2P RLI
o US$53 WTI operating breakeven
CORNER – LONG TERM DEVELOPMENT
o Top tier lease with high quality reservoir
o 40,000 bbl/d AER approval in place
REGIONAL MAP
Hangingstone
Leismer
Corner
14Breakevens reflect a US$17.50 WCS diff, US$5 C5 diff, C$1.50 AECO, 0.75 FXFootnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
THERMAL OIL – LEISMER ACTIVITY
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103/07‐22 CORE
HIGHLIGHTS o L7 sustaining pad
• 1,250m laterals (50% longer) and flow control equipped
• First steam in June with production expected in Q4/19
• >4,000 bbl/d pad production forecast
• Steam debottleneck
• Optimize field steam distribution and minimize downtime
• Expanding non‐condensable gas injection across the field
LEISMER DEVELOPMENT PAD 7 OVERVIEW
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
o The World Needs Canada’s Energy
o Energy Demand to grow by 27% by 2040
o ALL forms of energy are needed
o Canada is a global leader in innovation & environmental stewardship
o If Canadian Energy standards were applied across the world GHG emissions would decrease 23% (~100MM car equivalent)
o Oil Sands 0.15% of world emissions
o Canada needs a robust energy sector
o >$40B in annual capital investment
o Employment far reaching (533,000 jobs), largest employer of Indigenous people
CANADIAN ENERGY CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE
16Sources: CAPP, IEA, “Global carbon intensity of crude oil production” published Aug 2018 in Science Mag
The World Needs More Canadian Energy
WORLD ENERGY MIX (2016 – 2040)
EMISSIONS IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXTChina 24%
US 13%
EU 7%
India 7%
Russia 4%
Japan 3%
Canada <1.5%
Australia 1%
Other 40%
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SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
2019 2020Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Annual
WTI / WCS Differential Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$Financial Swaps 15,000 (28.35) (21.54) 21,000 (26.57) (20.19) 7,995 (25.82) (19.62)
WTI Swap Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$ Volume Price C$ Price US$Financial Swaps 12,000 80.59 61.25 18,000 79.86 60.69
Collars 2,000 80.00‐86.10 60.80‐65.44 2,000 80.00‐86.10 60.80‐65.44 1,000 65.13‐78.95‐85.53 49.50‐60.00‐65.00
CORPORATE SNAPSHOT & HEDGING
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HEDGING OVERVIEW
Basic Shares Outstanding 523 MM
Market Capitalization ($0.70/sh) $366 MM
Q2/19 Net Debt $240 MM
Total Enterprise Value $607 MM
Term Debt (9.875% due Feb 2022) US$450 MM
Undrawn Reserve Based Facility $120 MM
Funding Capacity / Liquidity $478 / $424 MM
Tax Pools (total / NCL & CEE) $3.1 / $2.0 BillionQ2/19 Net debt = FV term debt + (Current Liabilities ‐ Current Assets adj. for risk management contracts)Funding capacity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities + Duvernay capital carryLiquidity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities
CAPITALIZATION OVERVIEW (ATH‐TSX)
2020 WTI contract is a three way collarFX Forward ‐ August 2019 US$22.2 MM interest payment hedged at 1.3250 US/CAD rateUS$ price converted at 1.33 US/CAD rate
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
H1 2019 HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUED STRONG FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
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~$425MM liquidity2019e ~2x D/CF @ $60 WTI
$89MM Funds Flow$30MM Free Cash Flow
Strong Netbacks$28.70/boe Light Oil
$22.42/bbl Thermal Oil
36,568 boe/d86% liquids
Footnotes and additional information included in the back as endnotes
$59MM Capex (net)52% Thermal / 48% Light Oil
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
Strong ESG performance supported by commitment to transparency and continual improvement
CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY
20
ENVIRONMENTInnovation and sustainable
development
SOCIALSafety and community
involvement core to our culture
GOVERNANCECommitted to the highest standards
of corporate governance
We believe that strong performance in health, safety, and environment is essential to achieving our
business goals and meeting the needs of stakeholders. We are focused on being a valued partner in local
communities and industry programs while developing Alberta’s energy resources responsibly. We have
developed policies, programs and strong governance practices to be consistent with these objectives.
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY – ENVIRONMENT
Sources: National Pollutant Release Inventory, Alberta Directive 54 filings, ARC Energy Research Institute, Alberta Energy Regulator.
CORPORATE EMISSIONS INTENSITY
LIABILITY MANAGEMENT RATING WATER RECYCLING RATES (2018)
GLOBAL EMISSIONS
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Alberta Liability Management Rating (LMR) 16.0
94% of Thermal Oil reservoir water recycled for steam generation
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
TRIF
CAPP Peer Group
AOC
CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY – SOCIAL
22TRIF = Total Reportable Injury FrequencyTRIF peer data sourced from CAPP
SAFETY
o 2018 Total Recordable Injury Frequency: 0.36
o Exemplary safety performance key to business results and stakeholder needs
o Behavior Based Safety embedded in culture
o Corporate scorecard measures quantifiable safety metrics
COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT
o Support communities where we live and operate
o Some local causes that we support:
AOC has a strong track record of safe operations
SAFETY BENCHMARKING (2018)
Fox Creek HospitalFt. McMurray Hospital Lac La Biche Hospital
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY – GOVERNANCE
GOVERNANCE OVERVIEW
o AOC’s Board is responsible for the stewardship of the Company and provides independent and effective leadership
o Some key areas of oversight include:
o Health, safety and environmental performance
o Strategic direction and risk management
o Succession and compensation
o Ethics and compliance
o AOC’s policies are available on our website and include:
o Board Diversity Policy
o Code of Business Ethics
o Health & Safety Policy
o Shareholder Rights Plan
o Board Mandates (Chair, Audit, Reserves, Compensation)Female Executive Representation (3 of 5)
Independent Board and Chair (5 of 7)
Female Board Representation (1 of 7)
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
MANAGEMENT TEAM AND BOARD
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BOARD OF DIRECTORSMANAGEMENT TEAMRobert Broen, P.Eng.President & Chief Executive Officer
Kim Anderson, CAChief Financial Officer
Angela AveryGeneral Counsel & VP Business Development
Karla Ingoldsby, P. Eng.VP Thermal Oil
Matt Taylor, CFAVP Capital Markets & Communications
Ronald EckhardtChair of the Board, member of the Reserves Committee
Robert Broen, P.Eng.President & Chief Executive Officer
Bryan BegleyChair of the Compensation & Governance Committee and member of the Reserves Committee
Anne Downey, P. Eng. Chair of the Reserves Committee
Thomas EbbernMember of the Compensation & Governance Committee and member of the Audit Committee
Carlos Fierro Member of the Compensation & Governance Committee and member of the Audit Committee
Marshall McRae, CAChair of the Audit Committee
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH)
Slide Endnotes
Multi‐year outlook price assumptions:
1 (1) Liquidity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities(2) Consolidated reserves as at December 31, 2018 evaluated by McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd.(3) Reserve life index calculated on corporate 2P reserves of 1,280mmboe and ~40,000 boe/d production (4) For additional information regarding Athabasca’s reserves and resources estimates, please see “Independent Reserve and Resource Evaluations” in the Company’s 2018
Annual Information Form which is available on Company’s website or on SEDAR www.sedar.com
5/6/7/18 (1) Historical financial and operating results found on Company’s website or on SEDAR www.sedar.com(2) Liquidity = cash & equivalents + available credit facilities(3) Netbacks = operating netbacks prior to realized hedging gains (losses) and other income(4) FCF = funds flow – capital expenditures(5) Net debt = FV term debt + Current Liabilities (adj. for risk management) ‐ Current Assets (adj. for risk management)(6) 2019e Net Debt to Funds Flow = Forecasted year‐end net debt / forecasted funds flow
9/10/11/12 (1) Gross Montney inventory based on management estimate of 4 wells per sectionGross Duvernay acres and inventories. Well inventory based on management estimate of 4‐6 wells per section and ~2,750m laterals. See reader advisory “Drilling Locations” for more detail
(2) Operating netback is prior to realized hedging gains (losses) and other income
14 (1) Thermal Oil reserve life index calculated on 852mmbbl 2P reserves (Leismer & Hangingstone) and 29,000 bbl/d production (2) Thermal Oil McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. reserve evaluation as at December 31, 2018 (675mmboe Leismer, 177mmboe Hangingstone, 353mmboe Corner)
ENDNOTES & RISK MANAGEMENT
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2018 H1 2019 H2 2019 2019e 2020e
WTI US$/bbl $65.50 $57.36 $60.00 $58.47 $60.00
FX C$/US$ 0.77 0.75 0.77 0.76 0.75
Heavy Diff US$/bbl -$26.31 -$11.48 -$17.50 -$13.62 -$17.50
WCS C$/bbl $50.61 $61.21 $55.51 $59.22 $56.67
MSW Diff US$/bbl -$11.13 -$4.73 -$8.75 -$6.20 -$10.00
MSW (Ed. Par. Light Oil) C$/bbl $70.27 $70.00 $66.94 $69.01 $66.67
C5 Diff US$/bbl -$4.17 -$4.13 -$5.14 -$4.68 -$5.00
Condensate C$/bbl $79.34 $71.02 $71.65 $71.02 $73.33
AECO C$/mcf $1.48 $1.82 $1.97 $1.66 $1.77
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ATHABASCA OIL (TSX:ATH) 26
Forward Looking Statements
This Presentation contains forward‐looking information that involves various risks, uncertainties and other factors. All information other than statements of historical fact is forward‐looking information. The use of anyof the words “anticipate”, “plan”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “believe”, “contemplate”, “target”, “potential” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward‐looking information.The forward‐looking information is not historical fact, but rather is based on the Company’s current plans, objectives, goals, strategies, estimates, assumptions and projections about the Company’s industry, businessand future operating and financial results. This information involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in suchforward‐looking information. No assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward‐looking information included in this Presentation should not be unduly relied upon. Thisinformation speaks only as of the date of this Presentation. In particular, this Presentation contains forward‐looking information pertaining to, but not limited to, the following: the Company’s 2019 guidance and multi‐year outlook; type well economic metrics; estimated recovery factors and reserve life index; and other matters.
Information relating to "reserves" is also deemed to be forward‐looking information, as it involves the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves described exist in the quantitiespredicted or estimated and that the reserves can be profitably produced in the future. With respect to forward‐looking information contained in this Presentation, assumptions have been made regarding, among otherthings: commodity outlook; the regulatory framework in the jurisdictions in which the Company conducts business; the Company’s financial and operational flexibility; the Company’s, capital expenditure outlook,financial sustainability and ability to access sources of funding; geological and engineering estimates in respect of Athabasca’s reserves and resources; and other matters.
Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in this forward‐looking information as a result of the risk factors set forth in the Company’s Annual Information Form (“AIF”) dated March 6, 2019 that isavailable on SEDAR at www.sedar.com, including, but not limited to: fluctuations in commodity prices, foreign exchange and interest rates; political and general economic, market and business conditions in Alberta,Canada, the United States and globally; changes to royalty and tax regimes, environmental risks and hazards; the potential for management estimates, assumptions and regulatory interpretations to be inaccurate; thedependence on Murphy as the operator of the Company’s Duvernay assets; the capital requirements of Athabasca’s projects and the ability to obtain financing; operational and business interruption risks; failure bycounterparties to make payments or perform their operational or other obligations to Athabasca in compliance with the terms of contractual arrangements; aboriginal claims; failure to obtain regulatory approvals ormaintain compliance with regulatory requirements; uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of reserves and resources; litigation risk; environmental risks and hazards; reliance on third party infrastructure;hedging risks; insurance risks; claims made in respect of Athabasca’s operations, properties or assets; risks related to Athabasca’s amended credit facilities and senior secured notes; and risks related to Athabasca’scommon shares.
For important additional information regarding Athabasca’s reserves and resources estimates and the evaluations that were conducted by McDaniel & Associates, please see “Independent Reserve and ResourceEvaluations” in the Company’s most recent AIF. The forward‐looking statements included in this presentation are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. The forward looking statements contained herein aremade as of the date hereof and Athabasca does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward‐looking statements except as required by applicable securities laws.
Drilling Locations: The 800 Duvernay drilling locations referenced include: 50 proved undeveloped or non‐producing locations and 35 probable undeveloped locations for a total of 85 booked locations with the balancebeing unbooked locations. The 200 Montney drilling locations include: 77 proved undeveloped locations and 12 probable undeveloped locations for a total of 89 booked locations with the balance being unbookedlocations. Proved undeveloped locations and probable undeveloped locations are booked and derived from the Company's most recent independent reserves evaluation as prepared by McDaniel as of December 31,2018 and account for drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Unbooked locations are internal management estimates. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reservesor resources (including contingent or prospective). Unbooked locations have been identified by management as an estimation of Athabasca’s multi‐year drilling activities expected to occur over the next two decadesbased on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production and reserves information. There is no certainty that the Company will drill all unbooked drilling locations and if drilled there is no certaintythat such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The drilling locations on which the Company will actually drill wells, including the number and timing thereof is ultimatelydependent upon the availability of funding, oil and natural gas prices, provincial fiscal and royalty policies, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors.
Additional Oil and Gas Information:
“BOEs” may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of oil equivalent (6 Mcf: 1 bbl) is based on an energy equivalency conversionmethod primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil issignificantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Test Results and Initial Production Rates: The well test results and initial production rates provided in this presentation should be considered to be preliminary, except as otherwise indicated. Test results and initialproduction rates disclosed herein may not necessarily be indicative of long term performance or of ultimate recovery.
Non‐GAAP Financial Measures:
The "Adjusted Funds Flow”, "Light Oil Operating Income", “Light Oil Operating Netback”, “Light Oil Capital Expenditures Net of Capital‐Carry”, "Thermal Oil Operating Income", "Thermal Oil Operating Netback",“Consolidated Operating Income”, “Consolidated Operating Netback”, “Consolidated Capital Expenditures Net of Capital‐Carry” and “Net Debt” financial measures contained in this Presentation do not havestandardized meanings which are prescribed by IFRS and they are considered to be non‐GAAP measures. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and should not beconsidered in isolation with measures that are prepared in accordance with IFRS. Complete definitions are outlined in the Company’s Q2 2019 MD&A and financials available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) or theCompany’s website (www.atha.com) .
READER ADVISORY
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