At a Glance Industrial Q1 2015...
Transcript of At a Glance Industrial Q1 2015...
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INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLANDQ1 2015
At a glance
1
MARKET SUMMARY
MAJOR NATIONAL ROADSHIGHWAYS:
EXISTING
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PLANNED
EXPRESS ROADS:EXISTING
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PLANNED
BNP Paribas Real Estate has divided the industrial & logistics market into the 7 primary and 4 secondary hubs as marked on the map.
Primary Hubs:1. Warsaw I & Warsaw II2. Upper Silesia3. Central Poland4. Poznań5. Wrocław6. Tri-City
Secondary Hubs:1. Kraków2. Bydgoszcz / Toruń3. Szczecin4. Rzeszów / Lublin
MAP OF INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS HUBS & TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
SzczecinBydgoszcz
Gorzów Wlkp.
Wrocław
Opole
Katowice
Kielce
KrakówRzeszów
Lublin
Łódź
Warszawa
Białystok
Poznań
ZielonaGóra
Piotrków Tryb.
Gdańsk
Olsztyn
Toruń
3
2
3
1 4
4
4
5
2
6
1
The macroeconomic climate along with investment sentiment in Poland remains positive. Deflation is not interfering with improvements in economic indicators: GDP continues to grow, retail sales are higher, monthly salaries are increasing with the drop in unemployment rate and there has been a surge in industrial production. The record-low base reference rate at 1.5% will have a positive impact on consumption. Additionally, despite strengthening of the Polish zloty, Poland has a positive trade balance. All these factors are reflected in the industrial and logistic market, which continues to improve.Logistics occupiers, encouraged by current trends and positive forecasts for Poland, show undimmed interest in expanding their operations, thus creating demand for more warehouse and logistic space. In Q1 2015 some 270,000 sqm were delivered, bringing the total stock of industrial & logistic space to 9.1 million sqm. The continuous high level of tenant activity meant the vacancy rate has dropped further by 0.3 p.p. reaching 5.4%, a record-low in the last 10 years. A further 555,000 sqm is currently under construc-tion, but by the year-end the space should be absorbed, without any significant impact on vacancy rate.Industrial & logistic assets continue to attract investors’ interest, which exerts a downward pressure on prime yields, currently standing at 7.15-7.25%. In the first three months of 2015 the transaction volume of industrial & logistics properties traded
topped at €149 million, 34% of the whole quarterly investment vol-ume. BNP Paribas Real Estate expects the “gold rush” to slow down due to lack of products available on the market.ProLogis, with 25% of the stock dominates the market, followed by Segro with 11% market share.
Market share of warehouse stock by landlord, Q1 2015
Sour
ce: B
NP
Parib
as R
eal E
stat
e
Others 21.6%
Prologis 24.5%
Segro 11.4%
Logicor 8.8%
Goodman 6.2%
MLP 4.2%
Panattoni 10.5%
Hillwood 2.2%
Cromwell (formerly Valad) 2.3%
Hines 2.9%
P3 5.4%
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
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PRIMARY HUBS1
1. Annopol Business Park2. Bokserska Distribution Center3. City Point4. Diamond Business Park Ursus5. Distribution Park Annopol6. Distribution Park Okęcie7. Gate One8. Airport House9. Ideal Distribution Centre10. Ideal Idea III11. Kolmet12. Krakowska Distribution Center13. Łopuszańska Business Park14. Manhattan Business
& Distribution Center15. Metropol Park Jagiellońska16. Norblin Industrial Park17. Platan Park18. Prologis Park Warsaw II19. Prologis Park Warsaw – Żerań20. Segro Business Park Warsaw,
Żerań21. Space Distribution Center22. Ursus Logistic Center23. Warsaw Distribution Center24. Żoliborskie Centrum Biurowo-
Magazynowe
Narew
Wisła
Utrata
Pomiechówek
Czosnów
Wieliszew
Nieporęt
Jabłonna
Izabelin C
Stare Babice
Opacz
Janki
Nadarzyn Lesznowola
ŁOMIANKI
LEGIONOWO
NOWY DWÓRMAZOWIECKI
OTWOCK
PRUSZKÓW
MARKI
KOBYŁKA
WOŁOMIN
ZIELONKA
ZĄBKI
JÓZEFÓW
KARCZEWKONSTANCIN--JEZIORNAPIASECZNO
PIASTÓW
BRWINÓW
PODKOWA LEŚNA
OŻARÓW MAZOWIECKI
WARSZAWA
E77
E77
E30
E30
E67
E67
62
61
79
7
8
2
7
A2
S8
S8
S2
1
16
24
11
4
17212
697 8
1321
101423
22
20
18
5
19
153
WARSAW I
0 2 4 6 8 km
The largest market in Poland is split into two zones:• Warsaw I – within Warsaw boundaries, holding 7.5% of the mar-
ket share in terms of supply,• Warsaw II – within 50 km radius from the city boundaries ac-
counting for 24.9% of market share.The hubs benefi t from the critical mass of the Warsaw agglomer-ation, its central location in Poland and convenient transportation links with other parts of Poland as well as Europe.
Warsaw I Hub serves mainly the agglomeration, with some schemes providing services also to the regions. Many projects within this hub are let in smaller units when compared to typical out-of-town logistic parks. It is has experienced a lot of recent letting and relet-ting activity and records the highest rental rates across Poland.Vacancy rate in Warsaw Hubs remains one of the highest in Poland with 12.9% and 8.3% recorded at the end of March 2015. No scheme was delivered in Zone 1 and Zone II saw completion of 28,100 sqm in Q1 2015. There is 8,500 sqm under construction in Zone 1 and 13,800 sqm in Zone 2.
Warsaw I & Warsaw II
1. Supply of over 200,000 sqm
LotniskoWarszawa Okęcie
im. Fryderyka Chopina
W-WARAKÓW
AL. K
RAKO
WSK
A
AL. JE
ROZO
LIMSK
IE
Łopuszańska
Kleszczowa
Ryżo
wa
SzyszkowaPOŁUDNIOWA
OBWODNICA WARSZAWY (S2)
Nowolazurowa
13
10721
8
612 23
14
9
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
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Narew
Bug
Bzura
Wkra
Utrata
Pisia
Raw
ka
Wisła
Utrata
Pilic
a
Jezi
orka
J. Zegrzyńskie
Dzierzążnia
Naruszewo
Joniec
NoweMiasto
Załuski
Pomiechówek
Zakroczym
Leoncin
Czerwińsknad Wisłą
Wyszogród
Brochów
Kampinos
Teresin
Baranów
Jaktorów
Puszcza Mariańska
NowyKawęczyn
Regnów
Cielądz Sadkowice
Błędów
Pniewy
Goszczyn
BelskDuży
JasieniecBiałaRawska
Chynów
Prażmów
Tarczyn
ŻabiaWola
Lesznowola
Wiązowna
Sulejówek
Józefów
Karczew
Konstancin--Jeziorna
Góra Kalwaria
Nadarzyn
Sobienie--Jeziory
Grabównad Pilicą
Kowiesy
Radziejowice
Wiskitki
Leszno
Błonie
MilanówekPodkowaLeśna
Brwinów
Pruszków
OżarówMazowiecki
Raszyn
Stare Babice
Izabelin C
Młodzieszyn
Winnica
NasielskPłońsk
PokrzywnicaZatory
Somianka
Dąbrówka
Klembów
KobyłkaMarki
Nieporęt
Radzymin
ZielonkaZąbki
Serock
Wieliszew
JabłonnaCzosnów
Świercze
WARSZAWASOCHACZEW
ŁOMIANKI
NOWY DWÓRMAZOWIECKI
LEGIONOWO
WOŁOMIN
OTWOCK
Warka
GRÓJEC
PIASECZNO
Rawa Mazowiecka
MSZCZONÓW
ŻYRARDÓW
GRODZISKMAZOWIECKI
E77
E30
E67E77
E77
E30
50
62
92
79
50
79
50
5070
62
62
61
85
7
2
7
A2
S8
S8
S8
S7
32
17
12
11
30
21
27
1
2
3
4
531
33
24
3536
38
39 40
4142
43
13
45
6
10
181920
2225
26
151629
7
8
9
23
14
4428
34
37
46
47
48
WARSAW II
1. AB Logistyka 2. Atlantic 3. Altmaster Wola Mrokowska 4. Altmaster Pęcice 5. Altmaster Piaseczno 6. Błonie Business Park 7. Diamond Business Park Raszyn
(planned) 8. Distribution Park Grodzisk
Mazowiecki 9. Good Point Puławska I 10. Good Point Puławska II, IIIa, IIIb 11. Goodman Warsaw Logistics
Centre (planned) 12. Logicor Błonie 13. Logicor Łazy 14. Logicor Piaseczno 15. Logicor Święcice 16. Logicor Teresin 17. Menard Doswell Parzniew
(planned)18. Metropol Park Błonie 19. MLP Pruszków I 20. MLP Pruszków II 21. MLP Teresin (planned)22. Ożarów Logistic Center 23. P3 Błonie 24. P3 Mszczonów 25. Panattoni Park Błonie 26. Panattoni Park Garwolin 27. Panattoni Park Grodzisk
(planned)28. Panattoni Park Ożarów I, II 29. Panattoni Park Pruszków 30. Panattoni Park Pruszków II
(planned) 31. Piaseczno Business Park 32. Point of View Góra Kalwaria33. Point of View Kawęczyn 34. Point of View Piaseczno 35. Prologis Park Błonie 36. Prologis Park Błonie II 37. Prologis Park Janki 38. Prologis Park Nadarzyn 39. Prologis Park Sochaczew 40. Prologis Park Teresin 41. Pruszkowskie Centrum
Dystrybucyjne 42. Raszyn Business Park 43. Reguły Logistic Park 44. Segro Business Park Warsaw,
Ożarów 45. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw,
Nadarzyn 46. Segro Logistics Park Warsaw,
Pruszków 47. Techniczna Industrial Park 48. WAN Pruszków
0 5 10 15 20 km
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS WARSAW I WARSAW II
Total existing stock* 619,350 sqm 2,273,350 sqm
Under construction** 8,500 sqm 13,800 sqm
Vacancy rate 12.9% 8.3%
Rent range €3.40-5.00 per sqm/month €2.20-3.40 per sqm/month
*Stock revised **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
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Warta
J. Porajskie
M
ała Panew
Przemsza
Soła
Wisła
Brynica
Cza
rna
Pr
zem
sza
J. Goczałkowickie
Olza
Pszczynka
Ruda
J. Rybnickie
Kłodnica
Zawadzkie
Lubliniec
Kochanowice
KoszęcinBoronów
StarczaKamienicaPolska
Poraj
Koziegłowy
Woźniki
Kalety
KrupskiMłyn
Wielowieś
Tworóg
Miasteczko Śl.
SiewierzMierzącice
Poręba
OżarowiceŚwierklaniec
RadzinkówZbrosławicePyskowice
Toszek
Jemielnica
StrzelceOpolskie
Warmątowice
Ujazd
Rudziniec
KuźniaRaciborska
Pilchowice
Sośnicowice
Nędza
Lyski Jejkowice
Gaszowice
RydułtowyPszów
RadlinMarklowice
Gorzyce Mszana
Godów
Zebrzydowice
DębowiecH żl h
Kozy
Bestwina
Goczałkowice--Zdrój
MiedźnaBrzeszcze
BojszowyKobiór
Suszec
Pawłowice
Orzesze
Ormontowice
Gierałtowice
WyryŁaziska G.
Lędziny
Bieruń
Chełm Śl.
Chełmek
Libiąż
Imielin
PsaryBobrowniki
PIEKARY ŚL.
TARNOWSKIEGÓRY
DĄBROWA G.BYTOM
GLIWICE
RYBNIK TYCHY
BIELSKO--BIAŁA
ZABRZERUDA ŚL.
ŚWIĘTOCHŁOWICE
CHORZÓW
SOSNOWIEC
JAWORZNOMYSŁOWICE
JASTRZĘBIE--ZDRÓJ
Wojkowice
PolankaWielka
Przeciszów
Wilamowice
Wieprz
Osiek
Andrychów
Kęty
Jasienica
StrumieńChybie
Bohumín
Petřvald
KARVINÁ
ORLOVÁ
Jankowice
ŻarkiKolonowskie
MYSZKÓW
KNURÓW
CZERWIONKA--LESZCZYNY
ŻORY
PSZCZYNA
OŚWIĘCIMWODZISŁAWŚLĄSKI
CZECHOWICE--DZIECICE
KATOWICE
E75
E40
E40
E40E75
E462
E462
E462
11
9478
78
86
1178
88
94
94
44
86
81
44
152
78
67
81
40
40
88
1
S86
S1
S1
S1
S69
A1
A1
A4
A4
A1
A1
6
20
33
2
10
11
29
30
12
3
45
17
34
25
331
8
35
92615
1427
23
1624
192132
22
171336
37
28
18
The Upper Silesian Hub with 17.2% of the market share in terms of total stock remains number two regarding the overall volume of modern warehouse and logistic accommodation. In the last quarter the market expanded by 30,200 sqm. A further 92,250 sqm is cur-rently under construction. Benefi ting from an excellent transportation network, including A4 and A1 motorways running across the region, proximity to Southern and Western borders of Poland, as well as a substantial manufac-turing base and large consumer market, the Hub has attracted key players, who have developed logistic parks along the main trans-port corridors. Demand remains strong within the area with occupiers recruiting mainly from 3PL, manufacturing and FMCG companies.
Due to the vacancy rate, which only decreased by 0.5 p.p. over the last quarter, rents have remained fl at over the last few quarters and this situation is unlikely to change in the mid-term horizon.
Upper Silesia
UPPER SILESIA
1. Alliance Silesia Logistics Center 2. Centrum logistyczne Milowice 3. City Flex Business Park Bytom
(planned)4. City Flex Business Park Gliwice
(planned)5. City Flex Business Park
Katowice (planned)6. City Flex Business Park
Sosnowiec (planned)7. Diamond Business Park Gliwice 8. Distribution Park Będzin 9. Distribution Park Sosnowiec 10. DL Invest Park Dąbrowa
Górnicza (planned) 11. DL Invest Park Psary/Czeladź
(planned) 12. Goodman Gliwice Logistics
Centre (planned) 13. Goodman Sosnowiec Logistics
Centre 14. Górnośląski Park Przemysłowy 15. Logicor Czeladź 16. Logicor Gliwice I 17. Logicor Gliwice II 18. Logicor Mysłowice 19. MLP Bieruń 20. MLP Gliwice (planned) 21. MLP Tychy 22. Panattoni Park Bielsko-Biała 23. Panattoni Park Bielsko-Biała II 24. Panattoni Park Gliwice II 25. Panattoni Park Sosnowiec 26. Prologis Park Będzin II 27. Prologis Park Chorzów 28. Prologis Park Dąbrowa 29. Prologis Park Ruda (planned) 30. Prologis Park Ujazd (planned) 31. Segro Business Park Gliwice 32. Segro Industrial Park Tychy 33. Segro Industrial Park Tychy II
(planned)34. Segro Logistics Park Gliwice 35. Silesia Logistic Park 36. Śląskie Centrum Logistyczne 37. Terminal Logistyczny Promont
Tychy 0 5 10 15 20 km
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS UPPER SILESIA
Total existing stock* 1,570,150 sqm
Under construction** 92,250 sqm
Vacancy rate 7.2%
Rent range €2.80-3.50 per sqm/month *Stock revised **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
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In Q1 2015 the Poznań Hub recorded the highest level of new supply, which amounted 149,400 sqm, bringing the total stock to nearly 1.38 million sqm. Additional 50,700 sqm is currently under construction. Despite high level of deliveries, vacancy increased only by 1.3% reaching a mere 2.2%. Prime headline rents slightly dropped by 4% to €3.60 per sqm/month.
Poznań
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS POZNAŃ
Total existing stock* 1,375,900 sqm
Under construction** 50,700 sqm
Vacancy rate 2.2%
Rent range €2.80-3.60 per sqm/month
1. Centrum Magazynowe Bugaj2. Clip – Centrum Logistyczno
Inwestycyjne Poznań3. Distribution Park Gądki4. Doxler5. Goodman Poznan II Logistics
Centre6. Goodman Poznań Airport
Logistics Centre7. Goodman Poznań Logistics
Centre8. Logicor Poznań I 9. Logicor Poznań II 10. Logicor Poznań III 11. Logit12. Luvena Logistic Park Poznań13. MLP Poznań14. MLP Poznań Zachód (planned)15. Nickel Technology Park Poznań16. P3 Poznań17. Panattoni Park Poznań III18. Panattoni Park Poznań IV19. Prologis Park Poznań I20. Prologis Park Poznań II21. Prologis Park Poznań III
(planned)22. Segro Logistics Park Poznań,
Gądki23. Segro Logistics Park Poznań,
Komorniki
Warta
Mogilnica
War
taLubasz
Połajewo
Wronki Obrzycko
OstrorógSzmotuły
Oborniki
Rokietnica
Kaźmierz
Duszniki
Buk
Opalenica
Granowo
GrodziskWielkopolski
Kamieniec
Śmigiel
Lipno
Krzywiń
DolskJaraczewo
KsiążWielkopolski
Brodnica
Czempiń
Mosina
StęszewPuszczykowo
Kleszczewo
Dominowo
Nekla
Czerniejewo
Pobiedziska
MurowanaGoślina
Łubowo
Kiszkowo
Kłecko
Sroki
MieściskoRogoźno
Kostrzyn
Czerwonak
SuchyLas
ŚrodaWielkopolska
Miłosław
Zaniemyśl
Kórnik
Komorniki
Krzykosy NoweMiaston. WartąKościan
Dopiewo
TarnowoPodgórne
Ryczywół
POZNAŃ
WĄGROWIEC
SWARZĘDZ
ŚREM
JAROCIN
E30
E30
E261
E261
E261
11
11
92
92
11
12
11
15
15
32 5
5
S5
S11A2
A2
6
2118
1
2
310 16
8
19
22
20
4
9
7
1213
15
5
23
1117
14
POZNAŃ
0 5 10 15 20 km
*Stock revised **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
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The region benefi ts from proximity of A4 motorway allowing excellent links with Germany and further with other Western and Southern Eu-rope countries. The Wrocław Hub continues to attract lot of develop-ers and occupiers’ attention, which is refl ected in record-low vacancy rate for the Hub at 1.3% at the end of Q1 2015. Rents have increased by 15% over the last months. The total indus-trial & logistics stock amounted over 1.2 million sqm at the end of March and will be expanded by over 101,000 sqm of new deliveries in the coming quarters.
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS WROCŁAW
Total existing stock* 1,215,000 sqm
Under construction** 101,100 sqm
Vacancy rate 1.3%
Rent range €2.90-3.80 per sqm/month
Wrocław
1. Distribution Park Wrocław2. Eurologis3. Gazowa Industrial Park4. Goodman Wrocław East
Logistics Centre5. Goodman Wrocław South
Logistics Centre6. Panattoni Park Wrocław I7. Panattoni Park Wrocław II8. Panattoni Park Wrocław III9. Panattoni Park Wrocław IV
(planned)10. Prologis Park Wrocław I 11. Prologis Park Wrocław III12. Prologis Park Wrocław IV13. Prologis Park Wrocław V14. Segro Industrial Park Wrocław15. Skalski Logisitic Park16. Tiner Logistic Park17. Wrocław Bielany Business Park
(planned)18. Wrocław Business Park19. VATT Invest Wrocław
Oława
Oław
a
Odra
Odra
J. Mietkowskie
Strzegomka
Wąsosz
Jemielno
Wińsko Żmigród
Milicz
Twardogóra
Dobroszyce
ZawoniaTrzebnicaOborniki Śl.
WiszniaMała
Brzeg Dolny
Wołów
Malczyce
Miękinia
Kostomłoty
Mietków
Marcinowice Sobótka
Łagiewniki
Kondratowice
NiemczaPieszyce
PiławaGórna Ciepłowody Przeworno
Grodków
Olszanka
Wiązów
Domaniów
Żórawina
Siechnice
Czernica
Długołęka
BIerutów
Jelcz--Laskowice
Lubsza
Kobierzyce
Strzelin
SkarbimierzOsiedle
JordanówŚląski
Borów
Żarów
KątyWrocławskie
ŚrodaŚląska
Krośnice
Prusice
OLEŚNICA
OŁAWA
BRZEGŚWIDNICA
DZIERŻONIÓW
BIELAWA
WROCŁAW
E67
E67
E40
E40
E40
E261
36
94
94
94
35
39
15
5
5
8
8
25
S5
S8S8
S8
A1
A4
A8
A4
9
8
17
1
2
3
418
19
56
10
11
127
1613
14
15
WROCŁAW
0 5 10 15 20 km
*Stock revised **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
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Being located close to A2 and A1 motorway junctions is the key ad-vantage of the Hub, attracting both developers as well as occupiers. The total stock reached 1.15 million sqm at the end of March 2015. Due to no completions and solid demand, vacancy rate decreased further to 1.6%. As a result, rents have moved up by 8% in the last quarter.
Central Poland
1. Diamond Business Park Stryków 2. Goodman Łódź Logistics Centre 3. Logicor Łódź4. Logicor Łódź II5. Logicor Łódź III 6. Logicor Stryków7. Logis 8. Logistic City – Piotrków
Distribution Centre 9. Łódź Business Park 10. P3 Piotrków 11. Panattoni Park Business Center
Łódź 12. Panattoni Park Business Center
Łódź II13. Panattoni Park Łódź East 14. Prologis Park Piotrków I 15. Prologis Park Piotrków II 16. Prologis Park Rawa 17. Prologis Park Stryków
(planned) 18. Segro Business Park Łódź 19. Segro Logistics Park Łódź20. Segro Logistics Park Stryków
J. Sulejowskie
Wolbórk
a
Pilica
Raw
kaSkierniew
ka
Rawka
Bzura
Mro
ga
Bzura
Mos
zcze
nic a
Bzura
Ner
Grabia
Widawka
Luciąża
Pilica
Czarna
Parzęczew
Góra św. Małgorzaty
Bielawy
ZdunyChąśno Nowa
Sucha
NieborówBolimów
Godzianów
Słupia
Żelechlinek
Czerniewice
Inowłódz
SławnoMniszków
Będków
RokicinyBrójce
Grabica
DrużbiceZelów
Aleksandrów
Paradyż
Budziszewice
Nowy Kawęczyn
Łyszkowice
MakówDmosin
Ozorków Głowno
ŁOWICZ
SKIERNIEWICE
Łęczyca
ZGIERZ
Piątek
Lutomiersk
Dobroń
Ksawerów
Andrespol
Rogów
LipceReymontowskie
Jeżów
Głuchów
Dłutów
Kluki
Rozprza
WolaKrzysztoporska
Białaczów
Żarnów
Rzeczyca
Lubochnia
UjazdCzarnocin
Moszczenica
Domaniewice
Witonia
Brzeziny
KoluszkiKonstantynówŁódzki
AleksandrówŁódzki
PABIANICE
BEŁCHATÓWPIOTRKÓWTRYBUNALSKI
TOMASZÓWMAZOWIECKI
Stryków
Rzgów
Tuszyn
Sulejów
Wolbórz
Opoczno
RawaMazowiecka
ŁÓDŹ
E75E30
E30
91
14
92
5092
70
70
72
72 72
71
71
71
14
12
91
9174
4412
481
1
8
E75
E75
E68
S8
S14
E67
A1
A1
A1
A2
A2
72
19
12
4
17
3 13
18
5
716
1 620
11
108
1415
2
9
CENTRAL POLAND
0 5 10 15 20 km
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS CENTRAL POLAND
Total existing stock* 1,146,100 sqm
Under construction** 45,500 sqm
Vacancy rate 1.6%
Rent range €2.20-3.50 per sqm/month
*Stock revised **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
8
Located close to the sea (Deep Container Terminal in Gdańsk) and A1 motorway connection with south of the country, provides a good ground for development of this industrial and logistics hub in the Tri-City area. The total stock of Tri-City Hub reached over 272,100 sqm with a further 43,300 sqm under construction. Vacancy rate has shrunk from 5.0% to 2.7% at Q1 2015.
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS TRI-CITY
Total existing stock* 272,100 sqm
Under construction** 43,300 sqm
Vacancy rate 2.7%
Rent range €2.80-3.50 per sqm/month
Tri-City
1. Centrum Logistyczne Gdańsk Kowale I
2. Centrum Logistyczne Gdańsk Kowale II
3. Centrum Logistyczne Gdańsk Kowale III
4. Centrum Logistyczne Gdańsk Kowale IV (planned)
5. Centrum Magazynowe Hutnicza6. Diamond Business Park Gdańsk
(planned)7. Goodman Pomeranian Logistics
Centre8. Logistic Center Pruszcz Gdański9. Panattoni Park Gdańsk10. Port Gdynia Logistic Centre11. Prologis Park Gdańsk12. Segro Logistics Park Gdańsk
J. Żarno-wieckie
Z a t o k aP u c k a
Z a t o k a
G d a ń s k a
Wisła
Nogat
Martwa
Wisła
Reda
J. Raduńskie Dln.
Radunia
Krokowa
Jastarnia
Władysławowo
Puck
Gniewino
Reda
Luzino
Szemud
Przodkowo
ŻukowoChmielno
KARTUZY
Somonino
Przywidz
Kolbudy
Nowa Karczma
Liniewo
Stara Kiszewa
Zblewo
SulkowyMiłoradz
Lichnowy
PszczółkiTrąbkiWielkie
Skarszewy
Suchy Dąb
CedryWielkie
Ostaszewo
Stegna
Sztutowo
Nowy DwórGdański
Nowy Staw
StaryTarg
Kosakowo
HelWEJHEROWO
PRUSZCZGDAŃSKI
STAROGARDGDAŃSKI
MALBORK
SZTUM
GDYNIA
GDAŃSK
SOPOT
RUMIA
TCZEW
E28
E28
E77
E75
20
55
55
2222
2291
91
20
6
7
7
S6
S7
A1
4
3 6
510
7
912
11
812
TRI-CITY
0 5 10 15 20 km
*Stock revised **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
9
Despite high demand for logistics space in the Kraków Hub, which is confi rmed by continuous low level of vacancy rates, new devel-opment is limited and the area lags behind the Primary Hub league.As a result of the weak supply and strong demand, rents in Kraków Hub are among the highest in Poland with the tendency to grow. The situation will continue in the mid-term horizon.Vacancy grew to 2.7% at the end of Q1 2015. The planned delivery of 38,750 sqm over the next few months will put Kraków region on the list primary industrial and logistics hubs.
Kraków
SECONDARY HUBS1
1. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków Kokotów
2. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków I3. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków II4. Centrum Logistyczne Kraków III
(planned)5. Goodman Kraków Airport
Logistics Centre6. Logicor Kraków7. MARR Business Park8. MG Logistic9. Panattoni Park Kraków II10. RB Logistic11. Witek AirPort Logistic Centre
ŚwinnaPoręba (bud.)
J. Dobczyckie
Raba
Raba
Skawa
S kawa
Wisła
Ogrodzieniec
Charsznica
Miechów
KsiążWielki
Słaboszów
Działoszyce
CzarnocinRacławice
PałecznicaRadziemice
Koniusza
Luborzyca
Michałowice
IwanowiceWłościańskie
Skała
WielkaWieś
Zielonki
TrzyciążGołcza
Sułoszowa
Klucze
Bolesław
Bukowno
Trzebinia
Krzeszowice
Zabierzów
Alwernia
Spytkowice
Brzeźnica
Tomice
Wadowice
KalwariaZebrzydowska
StryszówLanckorona
Mucharz
Zembrzyce
Stryszawa
Tokarnia
BystraJordanów
Rabka--Zdrój
MszanaDolna
Lubień
Pcim
Wiśniowa
Jodłownik
Dobra Tymbark
Laskowa
ŻegocinaTrzciana
Łapanów
NowyWiśnicz
Raciechowice
Dobczyce
Myślenice
SieprawMogilany
Skawina
Wieliczka
ŚwiątnikiGórne
Sułkowice
Gdów
Tomaszkowice
Niepołomice
Kłaj Rzezawa
LipnicaMurowana
Limanowa
Łukowica
Słopnica
Niedźwiedź
Zawoja
SuchaBeskidzka
MakówPodhalański
Budzów
Liszki
Czernichów
Babice
JerzmanowiceProszowice
NoweBrzesko
DrwinaWawrzeńczyce
SłomnikiKazimierza
Wielka
Skalbmierz
Wolbrom
Pilica
OLKUSZ
CHRZANÓW
BOCHNIA
KRAKÓWE40
E40
E77
E462
E77
94
79
44
52
28
28
28
28
75
7
7975
7
S7
S7A4
A491
4
5
8
2
6
11
10
37
KRAKÓW
0 5 10 15 20 km
1. Supply up to 200,000 sqm
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS KRAKÓW
Total existing stock* 196,700 sqm
Under construction** 38,750 sqm
Vacancy rate 2.7%
Rent range €3.25-4.00 per sqm/month
*Stock revised **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
10
The Rzeszów-Lublin Hub has been gaining in importance due to the fact that these are the last industrial and logistic spots at the EU bor-der. The stock increased by 20,700 sqm bringing the total warehouse and logistics accommodation to over 179,600 sqm. The vacancy rate rose to 14%, which is the highest level across all the hubs. Despite increase in availability, BNP Paribas Real Estate observed a 6% rent increase over the last quarter.
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS RZESZÓW / LUBLIN
Total existing stock* 179,600 sqm
Under construction** 90,400 sqm
Vacancy rate 14.0%
Rent range €3.00-3.70 per sqm/month
Rzeszów / Lublin
Wieprz
Chodelka
Bystrzy
ca
Kurów
Końskowola Markuszów
GarbówJastków
Nałęczów
Wojciechów
Poniatowa
Bełżyce
Borzechów
Jabłonna
Piaski
MełgiewMilejów
CycówPuchaczów
Łęczna
Ludwin
SpiczynNiemce
JakubowiceMurowane
Trawniki
Fajsławice
ŁopiennikChodel
Konopnica
NiedrzwicaDuża
Wąwolnica
LUBLIN
ŚWIDNIK
8217
12
12
S17
S17
S12
21
LUBLIN
0 5 10 15 20 km
Przyr w
a
Wisłok a
Łęg
Wisł
a
Wisła
ZalewPilzno W
isło
k
Szydłów Staszów Łoniów
Osiek
BaranówSandomierski
PadewNarodowa
TuszówNarodowy
GawłuszowiceBorowaPacanów
Szczucin
WadowiceGórne
RadomyślWielki Przecław
Radgoszcz
Dąbrowa Tarnowska
LisiaGóra
Pustków
Żyraków
Czarna
Pilzno Czudec
IwierzyceBoguchwała
Tyczyn
ŚwilczaTrzebownisko
GłogówMałopolski
NiwiskaKolbuszowa
Cmolas
Dzikowiec
MajdanKrólewski
Bojanów
Grąbów
NowaDęba
Raniżów
Ostrów SędziszówMłp.
Ropczyce
Skrzyszów
PołaniecŁubnice
Koprzywnica
Rytwiany
Oleśnica
Tuczępy
TARNÓW
RZESZÓWDĘBICA
MIELEC
TARNOBRZEGSTALOWA
WOLA
7973
73
9
4
9
E371
E40
A43
7
6
4
5
RZESZÓW
0 5 10 15 20 km
*Stock revised, **As of March 2015
3. Centrum Logistyczne Rogoźnica4. Korczowa Logistic Park
(planned)5. Omega Pilzno6. Panattoni Park Rzeszów7. Skalski Logistic Park Podgrodzie
1. Centrum Logistyczne Mełgiewska
2. MLP Lublin
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
11
Panattoni and Goodman are the most active players within Toruń/Bydgoszcz Hub, which remains the second smallest industrial and logistics market in Poland. The region recorded the sharpest drop in vacancy rate, which fell from 32.3% at the end of 2014 to 3.2% at the end of Q1 2015. The hub, totalling 125,800 sqm offers very competitive rental rates. In the foreseeable future, no signifi cant change is expected.
The Szczecin Hub has been developing slowly, holding the smallest market share of all the industrial and logistics hubs across Poland. Recent activity was limited to completion of the next phase of North-West Park, which was successfully leased, leaving only 5.7% vacancy in the overall stock volume.
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS TORUŃ / BYDGOSZCZ
Total existing stock* 125,800 sqm
Under construction** 0
Vacancy rate 3.2%
Rent range €2.60-2.80 per sqm/month
KEY INDICATORS AND TRENDS SZCZECIN
Total existing stock* 87,400 sqm
Under construction** 56,200 sqm
Vacancy rate 5.7%
Rent range €2.80-3.60 per sqm/month
Toruń / Bydgoszcz
Szczecin Hub
1. Logistic and Business Park Bydgoszcz
2. Diamond Business Park Toruń (planned)
3. Goodman Toruń Logistics Centre
4. Panattoni Park Toruń
1. North-West Logistic Park2. Prologis Park Szczecin
Br
Kanał
Noteć
Notecki
Wisła
Drwęca
Sicienko
Osielsko Chełmża
Łysomice
LubiczDolny
Obrowo
CiechocinekAleksandrówKujawski
MałaNieszawka
Rojewo
ZłotnikiKujawskie
Nowa WieśWielka
BiałeBłota
SolecKujawski
ZławieśWielka
Łabiszyn
Barcin
WielkaNieszawka
Gniewkowo
KowalewoPomorskieDąbrowa
Chełmińska
Unisław
Łubianka
PapowoBiskupie
Dobrcz
BYDGOSZCZ
TORUŃ
E75
E261
25
15
15
10
10
80
80
5
A1
S5 S5S10
S10
4
1 3
2
Ina
Randow
Odra
Zac
h.
Odra
Płonia
Ina
Małe Dąbie
J. Dąbie
J. Miedwie
h
Brüssow
Gartz
Penkun
Osina
Stara Dąbrowa
StareCzarnowo
Kołbaskowo Kobylanka
Dobra Maszewo
Gryfino
GoleniówPOLICE
STARGARDSZCZECIŃSKI
SZCZECINE65
E65
E28
E28
104
E28
10
10
20
10
1331
2
A6
S3
S3
S6
S10
1
2
TORUŃ / BYDGOSZCZ
SZCZECIN
0 5 10 15 20 km
0 5 10 15 20 km
*Stock revised, **As of March 2015
*Stock revised, **As of March 2015
AT A GLANCE - INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS MARKET REVIEW, POLAND - Q1 2015
www.realestate.bnpparibas.pl12
CONTACTSAnna Staniszewska Director, Research & Consultancy CEE, [email protected] Pyś-Fabiańczyk Head of of Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Kajka Junior Consultant, Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Gnich Assistant, Industrial & Logistics Department, [email protected] Drukker Managing Director, Agency & Valuations CEE, [email protected] Mucha Director, Valuations CEE, [email protected] Palmer Director, Industrial Investments & Valuations CEE, [email protected]
List of major letting transactions in Q1 2015
List of major investment transactions in Q1 2015
Tenant Scheme Hub Area leased (sqm) Type of lease
Fiege P3 Mszczonów Warsaw II 20,555 + 25,455 Renegotiation + expansion
Jysk Logistic City Central Poland 40,500 New
FM Logistic P3 Piotrków Central Poland 32,100 + 4,900 Renegotiation + expansion
Nippon Goodman Toruń Logistics Center Bydgoszcz / Toruń 26,000 Renegotiation
RR Donneley Panattoni Park Łódź East Central Poland 23,000 Renegotiation
L’Oreal ProLogis Park Błonie II Warsaw II 19,500 Renegotiation
KMC Services Kraków Airport Logistics Centre Kraków 13,000 New
Sarantis MLP Pruszków II Warsaw I 12,200 Renegotiation
Confi dential ProLogis Park Szczecin Szczecin 10,400 New
Dedra Exim MLP Pruszków Warsaw II 10,000 Renegotiation
Project Location Purchaser Seller Price (€ million)
Warehouse portfolio Błonie, Piotrków Trybunalski P3 / TPG CA Immo / EBRD €80.0
Warehouse portfolio Mszczonów, Tomaszów Mazowiecki WP Carey FM Logistic €55.0
Skalski Logistic Wrocław Hillwood Skalski €14.0
Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate
BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland Sp. z o.o. al. Jana Pawła II 25, 00-854 WarsawTel. +48 22 653 44 00
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