ASX CEO Connect - Microsoft... · About Genesis Energy —only integrated energy management company...

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GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED ASX CEO Connect March 2018 Chris Jewell – CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

Transcript of ASX CEO Connect - Microsoft... · About Genesis Energy —only integrated energy management company...

Page 1: ASX CEO Connect - Microsoft... · About Genesis Energy —only integrated energy management company in New Zealand MAR18 3 KEY INFORMATION Revenue: NZ$2.0 billion EBITDAF Guidance

G E N E S I S E N E R G Y L I M I T E D

ASX CEO Connect

March 2018

Chris Jewell – CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER

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About New Zealand— good growth in a stable regulatory environment

Source: Economy Rankings 2017 (The World Bank), The Heritage Foundation 2017, Forbes Lists 2016, Legatum Prosperity Index 2016, Energy Architecture Performance Index 2017 (World Economic Forum)

MAR18 ASX CEO CONNECT

Page 3: ASX CEO Connect - Microsoft... · About Genesis Energy —only integrated energy management company in New Zealand MAR18 3 KEY INFORMATION Revenue: NZ$2.0 billion EBITDAF Guidance

About Genesis Energy— only integrated energy management company in New Zealand

3MAR18

KEY INFORMATION

Revenue: NZ$2.0 billion

EBITDAF Guidance (FY18): NZ$350-360 million

Dividend Yield: 6.7%

Share Price: NZ$2.40

Market Capitalisation: NZ$2.4 billion

Average Daily Turnover: 750,000 shares

Credit Rating: BBB+ (Standard & Poors)

Genesis Energy is a large, fully integrated energy management company. It is New Zealand’s largest energy retailer, generates electricity from a diverse portfolio of thermal and renewable assets located throughout the country, and has an interest in the Kupe oil and gas field offshore of Taranaki.

,

ASX CEO CONNECT

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MAR18 4

Market fundamentals outlook— continue to be supportive

• Electricity demand growth of 1% in 2017 with EV penetration accelerating

• Total NZ gas demand down due to industrial however retail growth continues with connections up over 15,500 in past five years

• LPG demand growth remains strong, with 6% growth in market over last 12 months

Customer

Wholesale

Kupe

• Forward electricity prices more reflective of tightening supply/demand dynamics. Year 2 price is up $4MWh (5%) on prior comparable period

• Tiwai Point Aluminum Smelter economics stable with a more positive outlook

• Forward carbon prices up to $24 per tonne in 2020

• Brent crude up 20% in 2017 with consensus outlook for 2018 in the range of US$59 to $62/bbl

• LPG supply/demand balance tightening with a possible move to net import early 2020’s

ASX CEO CONNECT

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Strategy Company

InvestorFinancial

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OptimiseTo improve short term return

InvestFor long-term value creation

InnovateFor medium term growth

REIMAGINING ENERGYto put control in our customers’ hands

Deliver operational excellence and value

optimisation

Increase value share of residential

category

Targeted growth in business category

Grow LPG category Build energy services

Insights and AnalysisFoundation investments in technology & digital

Embed data-driven decisions

Ways of working

Core Strategic Initiatives

Enabling Initiatives

Company strategy— five key strategic initiatives underpin our transformation

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Company strategy: Recent strategy highlights— transformation journey underway

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ResetStrategy and vision

Acquired additional 15%of Kupe for $168 million

Launched NZ’s first real world research and

development energy community

Acquired retail LPG distribution business

of Nova Energy for $192 million

Delivered $200m EBITDAF H1 FY18

- Up 28% Launched loyalty program with

>120,000 customers linked

Supported NZ security of supply during two

dry periods

$200m

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Company strategy: Innovating to lead— working with customers collaboratively to build our energy management capabilities

“Making Energy management real for our customers by initiating trials for our new services which include energy forecasting which went live

this month.”

MyAccount

Energy Management

“Partnering with customers to test and develop the latest energy innovations and deliver products and services that give them control about their energy

use.”

R&D

New Technologies

Innovation

Technology

Local Energy Project

Energy Management

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Page 9: ASX CEO Connect - Microsoft... · About Genesis Energy —only integrated energy management company in New Zealand MAR18 3 KEY INFORMATION Revenue: NZ$2.0 billion EBITDAF Guidance

FY17 EBITDAF Operationalexcellence

Residentialvalue share

Businesscategorygrowth

Grow LPGcategory

Energyservices

Kupe Core growth OriginalFY21 EBITDAF

target

Nova Energyretail LPGbusiness

Revised FY21EBITDAF

target

$333m

$5m -$8m

$9m -$14m$5m -$8m

$6m -$10m $2m -$3m

$13m -$17m$12m -$17m

$15m -$20m

$385m -$410m

$400m -$430m

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NOTES1. Several initiatives are interdependent. As an example, energy services capability will contribute towards residential value share2. All ranges are net of operational investment required to achieve target outcomes3. Represents acquired EBITDAF in the acquisition of the Nova Energy retail LPG business not in original FY21 target. $4-6 million of synergies from the acquisition will be reflected in the

“grow LPG category”4. Core growth represents partial benefit from the rolling off of the take or pay gas contracts and natural growth in wholesale prices over time

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3

Financial strategy: FY21 target— target to deliver $400 - $430 million by FY21

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DIVIDEND & PAYOUT HISTORY

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Investor Strategy— continued growth in dividends with a 8.6% gross yield1 and outperformance of TSR relative to peers

2017 TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Genesis Peer Index NZX50

29.2%

25.1%

22.0%

2017 closing share price: $2.52

1. Gross yield based on closing share price as at 29 December 2017.

• FY17 16.6c of dividends declared up 1.2% representing a cash yield of 6.7%. Dividend policy to grow in real terms over time with 3.8% growth delivered in past three years against inflation of 2.5%

• TSR target of top quartile, translating to ~14%, with a focus on dividend yield plus growth

• TSR has exceeded market by 7.2% and peer index by 4.1% in past 12 months

114130

160 164 166

73%80% 81% 81% 84%

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Total dividends paid Total Dividend Paid as % of FCF

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Financial Performance

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151 173 176 156200

157172 159 177

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FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 HY18

$ MILLIONS

EBITDAF EBITDAF BY SEGMENT

• HY18 EBITDAF $200 million, up 28%, FY18 guidance of $350 - $360 million

• NPAT down 24% to $28 million, due to fair value movements, underlying earnings up 14% to $43 million

• Operating cash flow up 57% to $199 million, and free cash flow up 37% to $129 million

Financial overview— a diverse portfolio delivering consistent earnings over time

83 87 103 11058

169201 194 176

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10794 80 84

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Customer Generation & Wholesale Kupe Corporate

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• Average cost of debt 5.8%, down 20 basis points

• Average tenure 11 years, up 3.1 years

• S&P reaffirmed BBB+ rating post acquisitions in January 2018 with Net Debt/EBITDAF expected to return to upper end of target range by end of FY18

• Dividend reinvestment plan announced at HY18, 2.5% discount

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Key Debt Metrics 31 Dec 2017

Total Debt $ 1,229.1

Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 40.6

Headline Net Debt $ 1,188.5

USPP FX and FV Adjustments $ 25.2

Adjusted Net Debt1 $ 1,163.3

Headline Gearing 39.1%

Adjusted Gearing 38.6%

Net Debt/EBITDAF2 3.0x

Interest Cover 6.9x

1. Net debt has been adjusted for foreign currency translation and fair value movements related to USD denominated borrowings which have been fully hedged with cross currency swaps

2. EBITDAF is based on the midpoint of the guidance range provided for FY18

GENESIS ENERGY DEBT PROFILE

Capital structure overview— long tenure debt in place at lower cost, with BBB+ rating from S&P, DRP in place

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Retailable Bonds Wholesale Domestic Drawn Bank Undrawn Bank Capital Bonds USPP

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Summary

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Page 16: ASX CEO Connect - Microsoft... · About Genesis Energy —only integrated energy management company in New Zealand MAR18 3 KEY INFORMATION Revenue: NZ$2.0 billion EBITDAF Guidance

• Company strategy

• Deliver operational excellence and value optimization

• Increase value share of residential category

• Grow business 2 business & LPG categories

• Build energy services

• Financial strategy

• Deliver EBITDAF of $400 - $430 million by FY21

• Investor strategy

• Deliver yield plus growth, target top quartile TSR (~14%)

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Genesis Energy— our mission is to reimagine energy, to put control in our customers’ hands

ASX CEO CONNECTMAR18

Page 17: ASX CEO Connect - Microsoft... · About Genesis Energy —only integrated energy management company in New Zealand MAR18 3 KEY INFORMATION Revenue: NZ$2.0 billion EBITDAF Guidance