Astronomy & the Process of Science What makes something scientific? What makes Astronomy a...

Astronomy & the Process of

ScienceWhat makes something scientific?

What makes Astronomy a science?

Why is Astrology not science?

Final Exam Essay Question!

How does the process of science work?

What are its typical steps?

Illustrate your answer with multiple astronomical examples of good science from the class.

Science?

Finding out about Nature…

NOT always right, sure, certainty!

More often? Confused! Wrong!

Richard Feynman

Hallmarks of Science

Seek explanations from natural causes

Not “super-natural”example: You hear a sound at night in the

house…




house…

supernatural causes: ghosts!




house…

natural causes: earthquake, mice, pets, children, house settling, sonic boom, thunder



“Nature is full of infinite causes that have never occurred in experience.”

- Leonardo da Vinci


Progresses through creation & testing of models of nature that explain observations as simply as possible.

If it was a storm, do you see lightning?If it was an earthquake, can you check news

for seismic activity?


Makes testable predictions

and…

Revises or abandons models if predictions don’t agree with observations. (cf. nature of science)

The process of science…Observe “things” in natureAsk QuestionsCreate ExplanationsDevelop Testable HypothesesDo the ExperimentAnalyze results, anticipate errorsDraw ConclusionsShare with others for independent confirmation

Patterns (seasons repeat every year)

Motions (planets move across the sky)

Events (eclipses!)

What isn’t there! (feeling like we are moving)

The process of science…

Observe “things” in nature

Patterns (seasons repeat every year)

Motions (planets move across the sky)

Events (eclipses!)

What isn’t there! (feeling like we are moving)


Ask Questions about what you observed

What? When? Where? How? … and WHY?

Research prior explanations & models

Requires imagination to tell what is important


Create Explanations (theories) that account for what you have observed

These should be consistent with what is already known

Use these to predict additional observations, patterns, events, trends


Develop TESTABLE hypothesesAn “Educated Guess”With a specific, narrow focus

Do the experimentFeynman: Science is how

not to be fooled….

The process of science…Analyze Experimental Results

Most likely result: you can’t tell for certain if your hypothesis was right!

Next most likely: hypothesis is wrong!

And if you are right…?

.

The process of science…Why aren’t you certain??

Always uncertainty in every measurement, and in every result.

Experiment itself might not be able to tell.

Develop Conclusions based on data

Anticipate sources of error

Refine or Discard Hypothesis

Develop further tests & Repeat!

Compare results w/ existing theories


Share preliminary results

Submit a paper to peer-reviewed journal

Ask colleagues for input

Present at conferences

Discuss, Debate, Defend results

ARGUE


Seek independent confirmation

then…

Revise TheoriesDo new experimentsDevelop new techniques, equipment,Publish again



Astrology:

Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and similarities between people can be identified.

The Sun, Moon, Planets & stars and their alignments and aspects are responsible.

AstrologyConsider your sunsign…

Aries (Ram) Mar. 21 - Apr. 19 Libra (Scales) Sep. 23 - Oct. 22

Taurus (Bull) Apr. 20 - May 20 Scorpio (Scorpion) Oct. 23 - Nov. 21

Gemini (Twins) May 21 - Jun. 20 Sagittarius (Archer) Nov. 22 - Dec. 21

Cancer (Crab) Jun. 21 - Jul. 22 Capricorn (Goat) Dec. 22 - Jan. 19

Leo (Lion) Jul. 23 - Aug. 22 Aquarius (Water Bearer) Jan. 20 - Feb. 18

Virgo (Maiden) Aug. 23 - Sep. 22 Pisces (Fish) Feb. 19 - Mar. 20

OK, so why isn’t Astrology a “science”???

Doesn’t astrology follow that process of science?

Observe behavior trendsCategorize into “signs”Create a theory – the planets and stars are

responsibleTest – read your horoscope! “That’s ME!!”Publish


Consider the following:

“I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right.”

From this one instance, could you predict that on the next day it will also be right?


No…. You cannot make a valid conclusion from one instance where a theory does coincide with a prediction.

Science demands continual testing…

And science requires that if the prediction DOESN’T match the result even once, the theory must be modified!


But what about this person? Astrology worked, didn’t it?

Doesn’t that count for something?

“I’m an Aries. My astrological sign fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and

meet a stranger, and I did! It was 100% right.”


“I’m an Aries. My astrological sig fits me perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I

did! It was 100% right.”

In science, you must look for OTHER possible causes before you decide one particular theory is responsible!

Coincidence *does not mean* causality




Other possibilities?Did every horoscope match “perfectly”?Did everything go “great” or just what you chose

to remember?Do you ever meet strangers on days when your

horoscope doesn’t say you would?




Other possibilities?Did everyone born on the same day have the

same results?Could your belief *bias* you to see what you

expect to see?

Examining Astrology Scientifically

Astrology maintains:

a) Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and similarities between people can be identified.

b) The planets and stars are responsible.

Astrology:

Personalities and actions of people can be studied, and similarities between people can be identified.

The planets and stars are responsible.

The first part can be true! Psychology!The second part is not.

Examining Astrology Scientifically


Consider the following…

“The planet is getting warmer and warmer. Nature (volcanoes, the sun, cosmic rays) is responsible, not people.”

The first part can be true.The second part might not be entirely true!

Summary: Process of Science…

observation of data, developing questions about trends,

differences, & unique occurrences seen research into previous work on similar questions

building models & creating testable hypotheses designing, & gathering new data through, experiments testing & refining the models based on the analysis of new data

collected

modifying or discarding incorrect hypotheses

developing interconnected hypotheses into theories

sharing results with peers for independent evaluation and testing

publishing findings in peer-reviewed journals so that the community of science can advance.

Summary: Process of Science…

Science or Non-Science?Could these be evaluated scientifically?

The Yankees are the best baseball team of all time.

Several kilometers below its surface, Jupiter’s moon Europa has an ocean of liquid water

My house is haunted by ghosts who make creaking noises I hear every night.

Dogs are smarter than cats.


There is no liquid water on the surface of Mars today.

Children born when Jupiter is in front of Taurus are more likely to be musicians than other children.

Aliens can manipulate time so that they can abduct people and perform experiments on them without people every realizing they were taken.


Newton’s law of gravity works as well for explaining orbits of planets around other stars as it does for planets in our own solar system.

God created the laws of motion that were discovered by Newton.

A huge fleet of alien spacecraft will land on Earth on January 1, 2020.

Astronomy & the Process of Science What makes something scientific? What makes Astronomy a...

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