ASSOCIATION OF FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS 2018 ANNUAL … 1 AFP Gar… · $3,786,241 [VALUE] -500,000....
Transcript of ASSOCIATION OF FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS 2018 ANNUAL … 1 AFP Gar… · $3,786,241 [VALUE] -500,000....
ASSOCIATION OF FINANCIAL PROFESSIONALS 2018 ANNUAL WINTER SEMINAR
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Overnight Benchmark Cash Investment Strategy
Stabilizing Earnings When Its Needed Most
For illustration purposes only
[VALUE]
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000Ju
n-11
Oct
-11
Feb-
12
Jun-
12
Oct
-12
Feb-
13
Jun-
13
Oct
-13
Feb-
14
Jun-
14
Oct
-14
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
Feb-
16
Jun-
16
Oct
-16
Feb-
17
Jun-
17
Oct
-17
Feb-
18
Jun-
18
Cummulative Overnight Benchmark Earnings
Which Earnings Curve Do You Want To Be On?
$3,786,241
[VALUE]
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000Ju
n-11
Oct
-11
Feb-
12
Jun-
12
Oct
-12
Feb-
13
Jun-
13
Oct
-13
Feb-
14
Jun-
14
Oct
-14
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
Feb-
16
Jun-
16
Oct
-16
Feb-
17
Jun-
17
Oct
-17
Feb-
18
Jun-
18
Cummulative Cash & Investment Earnings Cummulative Overnight Benchmark Earnings
Incremental Earnings
$2,424,342
Which Earnings Curve Do You Want To Be On?
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%18
7118
7618
8118
8718
9118
9619
0119
0619
1119
1619
2119
2619
3119
3619
4119
4619
5119
5619
6119
6619
7119
7619
8119
8619
9119
9620
0120
0620
1120
16
Normal Range
Anomaly
Historical Yield of the 10 Year Treasury Note
Source: Yale University, Robert Shiller
0.01%
2.49%
3.25%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
3m1y 2 y 3y 5y 7y 10y 30y
6/30/2015Source: Thompson/Reuters
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
2.41%
2.87% 3.14%
0.01%
2.49%
3.25%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
3m1y 2 y 3y 5y 7y 10y 30y
12/6/2018 6/30/2015Source: Thompson/Reuters
U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
$1mm Overnight
Investment Investment on 6/30/2015 $1,000,000 Total Compounded Income: $30,600 Mark to Market Gain / (Loss) $0
Net Investment Results $30,600
Comparing Investment Options
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & SNL Financial
$1mm Overnight
Investment
$1mm 10 year Treasury Note
@ 2.49% Investment on 6/30/2015 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 Total Compounded Income: $30,600 $117,034 Mark to Market Gain / (Loss) $0 ($16,416)
Net Investment Results $30,600 $100,618
Comparing Investment Options
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & SNL Financial
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500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000Ju
n-11
Oct
-11
Feb-
12
Jun-
12
Oct
-12
Feb-
13
Jun-
13
Oct
-13
Feb-
14
Jun-
14
Oct
-14
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
Feb-
16
Jun-
16
Oct
-16
Feb-
17
Jun-
17
Oct
-17
Feb-
18
Jun-
18
Cummulative Cash & Investment Earnings Cummulative Overnight Benchmark Earnings
Earnings Curve
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Focus on what makes a difference
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