Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change...
Transcript of Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change...
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Ricardo-AEA
ClimaEast
Workshop - Baku Richard Smithers
Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change
vulnerability and impact assessment
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Workshop Agenda – Day 1
• Welcome speech and introductions
• Introduction to the workshops
• Expectations
– Definition of priority areas to be addressed
– Purpose of the modelling tool
– Strengths and weaknesses of classes of models used in climate change
– Review technical characteristics of potential models to facilitate selection
– Identification of selection criteria
– Potential issues
• Initial review of the short-listed models identified
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Welcome
and introductions
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Introduction to the workshop
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• More than 30-years’ experience in the environmental field
• Background in land management, including forestry
• Assessing impacts and vulnerabilities and considering adaptation measures since
1998, including involvement in developing and applying models and decision
frameworks
• Lead adviser on ecosystem-based adaptation in supporting EC DG CLIMA with regard
to development of EU Adaptation Strategy
• Providing expert input to: development of a Climate Adaptation Support Package for
Turkey, defining a pilot approach on estimating the direct and indirect impacts of
extreme events on economic activity for EC DG CLIMA, the UK Climate Change Risk
Assessment, the UK National Ecosystem Assessment
• Currently:
– Preparing Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Measures Chapter of Palestine’s
Initial National Communication Report to the UNFCCC
– Supporting the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution process in Bangladesh
– Contributing to a meta-review of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) mainstreaming
for EC DG CLIMA regarding effective performance of tools for climate action policy.
Richard Smithers, Knowledge Leader: Ecosystems and Principal
Consultant
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Expectations
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Expectations – Definition of priority areas
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Climate Change
Adaptation
Water resources
Agriculture
Forestry
Water-related natural events
Others???
Definition of priority areas
Water authorities Government
Farmers and foresters Industry
Cities and
communities Others???
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Expectations – Purposes of the modelling tool
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• Audience – Who will use the outputs?
– Researchers?
– Policy-makers?
– Practitioners?
• What are their aspirations for how they will use them?
• For example:
– To assess vulnerabilities, and/or
– To identify and develop adaptation options, and/or
– To enable stakeholder engagement.
• Discuss…
Expectations – Purposes of the modelling tool
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Expectations – Purposes of the modelling tool
Inter-relations between definitions of terms used in IPCC’s 4th
Assessment Report (top) and 5th AR (bottom)
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Strengths and weaknesses of modelling
approaches
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Conceptual model of the integrated system
(Nay et al. 2015, DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2014.912196)
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• Equation-based models
– Start with a set of equations that describe relationships among variables of a system
(top down)
• Agent-based models
– Start with behaviours of constituent agents of a system (bottom up)
• Geographic-based models
– Geographic information systems (GIS) enable spatial information from a variety of
sources to be manipulated in a common projection format
• Participation-based models
– Involve stakeholders in role-playing games to understand climate vulnerabilities,
explore plausible futures, and inform adaptation decisions
Decision-support models for adaptation to climate change
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Model type Advantages Disadvantages
Equation-
based
models
Fewer parameters than ABM
Amenable to making precise
predictions and has less
parameters to estimate
Can be viewed as “black box” – less
transparent
Numeric outputs can be taken as certain
May not account for macro-level impacts of
social norms or individual decisions
Uncertainty not always explicit in results
Agent-based
models
Explore “what–if” scenarios
Evaluate competing models of
human behaviour vs observation
Better understand causal links
Simulate adaptation
Can be viewed as “black box”
Data hungry to capture reality
Computationally complex
Geographic-
based
models
Represent detailed spatial patterns
and facilitate visualization
Can include location-specific assets
(e.g. flood protection)
Not good at representing dynamic diverse
processes
May need to be informed by equation- and
agent-based modelling
Participation-
based
models
Can help stakeholders understand
how decisions link to consequences
Can adapt to different priorities
Can inform cost:benefit analyses
May require simplified input from other
models
Assumptions and process need to be
transparent and recorded
Decision-support models for adaptation to climate change
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“As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also
know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there are some things we do not
know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.”
Donald Rumsfeld in a US Department of Defense news briefing in 2002.
• All models are wrong
• Uncertainties increase with down-scaling
• Uncertainties are compounded the more complex the model
• Strategic decisions need to address the full range of likely variation in projected
changes and their impacts
• It is important not to select one preferred future in the hope that it will come true
• Adaptation measures are required that will be beneficial whatever the extent, rate or
even direction of climate change.
Managing for uncertainty
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• Discuss…
What type of modelling approaches are required in Azerbaijan
and Georgia
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Review technical characteristics of
potential models that may facilitate
selection
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• Coverage of priority areas
• Where the model has previously been applied
• Relevance to the region (Azerbaijan and/or Georgia)
• Whether climate change is implicit within the model
• Type of adaptation model (equation-based; agent-based; geographic-based;
participation-based)
• Technical parameters and resultant data requirements (inputs)
• Technical ability, i.e. what does the model do? (outputs)
• Scale
• Ability to run on beneficiaries PCs
• Accessibility (i.e. any associated fees)
• Discuss…
Characteristics being assessed
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Identification of selection criteria
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• With reference to:
– Priority areas
– Purposes
– Classes of models
– Technical characteristics
• Discuss…
Identification of selection criteria
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Potential issues for models
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• Data availability
• Data collection
• Training needs
• Discuss…
Choosing a model – potential issues
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Initial review of short-listed models
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Technical characteristics of models with potential to meet needs
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Technical characteristics of models with potential to meet needs
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Technical characteristics of models with potential to meet needs
© Ricardo-AEA Ltd
www.ricardo-aea.com
Ricardo-AEA
ClimaEast
Workshop - Baku Richard Smithers
Assistance in using modelling tool(s) for climate change
vulnerability and impact assessment
© Ricardo-AEA Ltd Ricardo-AEA in Confidence 29
Workshop Agenda – Day 2
• Initial review of the short-listed models identified (continued)
• Case studies
• Discussion on short-listed models
• Working in groups on identified issues, criteria for model selection, possible
setbacks/barriers, prioritization of the short-listed models
• Presentation of the preliminary conclusions of the groups regarding preferences of the
short-listed models
• Discussion on further steps and follow-up of the workshop
• Closure of workshop
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Initial review of short-listed models
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• Richard Smithers to complete bullet point based on Day 1 discussion
• Replace slide with a photo and summary
Summary of discussion from day 1
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Case Study 1 – CREAT Climate
Resilience Evaluation and Awareness
Tool
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• Objectives
– To obtain short- and long-term projections (for 2035 and 2060) of future climate
change for the Las Vegas Valley
– To identify South Nevada Water Authority’s (SNWA) assets most vulnerable to
weather and climate-related threats, based on climate projections
– To use the risk reduction unit (RRU) metric provided by CREAT to develop cost-
effective adaptation strategies to minimize threats and demonstrate resilience (or
lack of resilience) to future climate threats both with and without adaptation.
– To familiarize staff with the climate change risk assessment process and develop a
database, including vulnerability of SNWA’s assets, threats and potential
adaptation measures for
iterative use in future
assessments.
Case Study 1 – CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and
Awareness Tool
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• Input data required
– Digitised boundaries of the utility operating area
– Historical temperature and precipitation data for developing projections
– Regional projected climate information (within model)
– Identity of threats (based on SNWA staff’s consideration of CREAT outputs )
– Catalogue of assets (provided by SNWA)
Case Study 1 – CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and
Awareness Tool
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• Types of outputs
– Future climate projections
– Priority threats and assets
– Preliminary risk assessment
– Increased understanding and consensus built around key risk assessment
parameters (e.g. climate data, likelihood, consequences).
Case Study 1 – CREAT Climate Resilience Evaluation and
Awareness Tool
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• Although standard data is US-specific, there is an option to import historical climate
data (and climate projections) from Azerbaijan.
• Modelling approach combines elements of quantitative assessment with stakeholder
participation.
• CREAT provides a single platform to apply climate change data and take stakeholders
through an assessment and decision-making process. However, the focus is on water
utilities rather than wider cities and catchments.
Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia
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Case Study 2 – EU Climate Adapt
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• Objectives
– To assist users in developing climate change adaptation strategies and plans by
providing guidance, links to relevant sources and dedicated tools.
• Applied at a city scale in Turkey by Ricardo-AEA
– A UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office-funded project following on from application
of this approach to 21 cities in the EU.
– The city of Bursa has a population of over 2 million and climate change and
economic growth require adaptation strategies, especially regarding flooding and
drought.
– A capacity-building approach was taken to lead municipal
government officers through a stepwise process and
develop an adaptation strategy. This included three
workshops in Turkey, one of which focused specifically on
water management.
Case Study 2 – EU Climate Adapt
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• Input data
– Identifying current and future climate change
impacts
– Information about ongoing adaptation activities
– Good practice examples.
• Types of outputs
– Identification of adaptation options
– Selection of adaptation options based on cost-
benefit analysis
– Adaptation strategy for implementation
– Monitoring and evaluation plans.
Case Study 2 – EU Climate Adapt
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• Applicability for Azerbaijan and Georgia
– The Climate Adapt model and adaptation support tool are participation based and
more flexible than taking a quantitative approach and using a one-size fits all model.
– The approach can:
• Enable dialogue around the most important aspects of adaptation
• Support information on vulnerability from a range of sources
• Lead to cost-benefit analysis of options
• Provide a robust adaptation strategy at a city, regional or national scale.
Case Study 2 – EU Climate Adapt
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Case Study 3 – FAO: MOSAICC –
MOdelling System for Agricultural
Impacts of Climate Change
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Case Study 3 – FAO- MOSAICC – MOdelling System for
Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
• Objectives
– To use an integrated package of
models to assess the impact of climate
change on agriculture, including the
variations in crop yields and their effect
on national economies.
• Input data required
– The models are robust and can work
with minimal data, but it is essential to
have good quality time series of
weather observations, over a at least
20-30 years at least for a significant
number of stations.
• Types of outputs (see figure)
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• The models:
STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PORTAL
(SD PORTAL)
– Used for downscaling climate data.
This tool is an adaptation of the portal
developed within the EU ENSEMBLES
project.
AQUACROP
– Based on the FAO crop model for
estimating crop productivity in relation
to water supply and agronomic
management. The overall framework is
based on plant physiological and soil
water budgeting concepts.
WABAL
– A crop specific water balance model
derived from AgroMetShell, the FAO
crop yield forecasting software.
Case Study 3 – FAO- MOSAICC – MOdelling System for
Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
STREAM
– A grid-based precipitation-runoff model
which simulates the discharge rate in
large catchment areas.
DYNAMIC CGE MODEL
– Designed to model the future evolution
of the national economies and how
they are affected by variations of crop
yields under different climate change
projections. Policy response options
can also be tested.
OTHER UTILITIES
– These include: data interpolation tools
(kriging, AURELHY), reference
evapotranspiration, and planting date
and growing season length calculation
tools.
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Case Study 3 – FAO- MOSAICC – MOdelling System for
Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
• The green Moroccan Plan, a large scale
agricultural development strategy in
Morocco, is expected to boost the
agricultural sector and promote rural
development
– The strategy will be challenged by
climate change, as crop yields and
water resources are expected to
decline
– A total of 11 institutions are
participating in the use of MOSAICC in
Morocco at national and regional
levels.
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• Deployment of MOSAICC for green
Morroco was achieved in three steps:
– (1) installation of the server and the
software,
– (2) training of the system
administrators and
– (3) training of the national experts on
the system, the models and the data.
Case Study 3 – FAO- MOSAICC – MOdelling System for
Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
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• Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia
– Designed to be distributed to national
institutions
– Different models should be run by
researchers with relevant expertise in
climate and/or agriculture sciences as
well as good computer skills
– Promotes synergy between
stakeholders (climate, water, soil,
agriculture, economy)
– FAO provides training and support
– Web portal-based, though investment
and hosting of server system required
– Remote access through web interfaces
opens opportunities for participatory
approach. Users do not need to install
any software on PC as the system is
accessed through usual web browsers.
Case Study 3 – FAO: MOSAICC – Modelling System for
Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
– Easy data exchange, low computing
time and automatic data formatting
and unit conversion
– Data can be tracked down the flow
– Replication and comparison is easy.
– Once installed, the system requires
maintenance but no licensing cost.
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Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water
Integrated Model
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• Objectives
• To investigate climate and land use
change impacts at the regional scale.
• The model
• SWIM is an ecohydrological integrated
river basin model
• Processes are interrelated at a daily time
step using regionally available data and
considering feedbacks
• The model set-up and post-processing
are supported by a GIS interface.
Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model
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• Input data required
– Topography
– Land use
– Soil distribution and soil parameters
– Surface waters and river network
– Climatic and precipitation stations
– Water and land use management data
– Measured discharge data
– Measured values of nutrient concentrations (for calibration and validation).
• Types of output
• It simulates:
– Runoff generation
– Nutrient and carbon cycling
– Plant growth and crop yield
– River discharge and erosion.
Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model
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Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model
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• Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia
– High level of data requirements and effort to set-up this modelling approach.
– Benefits over traditional hydrological models in terms of understanding the
interactions with vegetation and water quality.
Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model
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Case Study 5 – WEAP – Water
Evaluation and Planning System
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Integrated Approach Unique approach for conducting integrated water
resources planning assessments
Stakeholder Process Transparent structure facilitates engagement of diverse
stakeholders in an open process
Water Balance
A database maintains water demand and supply
information to drive mass balance model on a link-node
architecture
Simulation Based
Calculates water demand, supply, runoff, infiltration, crop
requirements, flows, and storage, and pollution
generation, treatment, discharge and instream water
quality under varying hydrologic and policy scenarios
Policy Scenarios
Evaluates a full range of water development and
management options, and takes account of multiple and
competing uses of water systems
User-friendly Interface Graphical drag-and-drop GIS-based interface with flexible
model output as maps, charts and tables
Model Integration
Dynamic links to other models and software, such as
QUAL2K, MODFLOW, MODPATH, PEST, Excel and
GAMS
Case Study 5 – WEAP – Water Evaluation and Planning System
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• Input data required
– Water supply and demand
– Scenarios
Case Study 5 – WEAP – Water Evaluation and Planning System
• Types of outputs
– Current and future water availability
– Can link with:
• Energy modelling
• LEAP
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• Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia
– Can help address issues around agricultural water allocation and future
supply/demand issues
Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model
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Case Study 6 – FORESEE FORESt
Ecosystems in a Changing Environment
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• Objectives
– To describe long-term forest behaviour under
changing environmental conditions
– To analyse:
– Forest productivity (11 European tree species)
– The carbon, water, and nitrogen budgets of
forests including soil
– To derive reduced models for application in
information systems
– To analyse adaption of forestry to climate change
by management
– To estimate the bioenergy potential from short
rotation coppice.
Case Study 6 – FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing
Environment
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• The model
– Describes processes at tree and stand level based on eco-physiological
experiments, long-term observations and physiological modelling at an intermediate
level of complexity.
– Resolution:
• Time step: 1 day – 1 year
• Simulation period: 1 – 200 years
• Spatial: Cohorts of trees in a forest stand
– Operating system: Linux, Unix, Windows
– Programming language: Fortran90
– Model run time: Dependent on the number of sites, scenarios and simulation time
Case Study 6 – FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing
Environment
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• Input data required
– Daily meteorology,
– soil description (physical and chemical),
– forest stand description
• Types of outputs
– Water, carbon and nitrogen dynamics (pools and fluxes) of forest stands including:
• Soil
• Growth behaviour of forest stands (diameter, height, volume)
Case Study 6 – FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing
Environment
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Case Study 6 – FORESEE FORESt Ecosystems in a Changing
Environment
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• Applicability to Azerbaijan and Georgia
– Can help address issues around forestry, energy and climate change mitigation as
well as adaptation.
Case Study 4 – SWIM - Soil and Water Integrated Model
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Working in groups on identified issues,
criteria for model selection, possible
setbacks/barriers, prioritization of the
short-listed models
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• From day 1 choose one of the key issues you have identified
– Water resources
– Agriculture
– Forestry
– Water related disaster
• Choose a model from the short-list and/or case studies
– What are the data requirements
– What are the outputs that you’d like to see and can the mode produce these
– What are the training and capacity requirements of that model
• Feedback to main group at the end
• This will help us understand if the short-listed models are suitable and help you
identify some of the key inputs and data requirements
Breakout groups
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Presentation of the
preliminary conclusions
of the groups regarding
preferences of the short-
listed models
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Discussion on further steps and follow-up
of the workshop
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W:
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Richard Smithers
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