Assignment III on Decision Theory, LP and Simulation
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Transcript of Assignment III on Decision Theory, LP and Simulation
1. Jack Buys hot dogs each morning for his stand in the city. Jack prides himself on slow-roasted,
always fresh hot dogs. As a result, he will sell only hot dogs purchased that morning. Each hot dog
plus bun and condiments sell for $1.50 and costs Jack $0.67. Assume Jack can purchase any number
of hot dogs. Because tomorrow is Friday, Jack knows tomorrow’s hot dog demand will be normally
distributed with mean 375 hot dogs and variance 400. If Jack has any hot dogs left over, he either
eats them or gives them away to less fortunes, earning no additional revenue. If Jack wants to
maximize his profits, how many hot dogs should he purchase? How many hot dogs should he buy if
leftover hot dogs could always be sold for $0.50?
2. Sam Crawford, a junior business major, lives off campus and has just missed the bust that would
have taken him to campus for his 9:00 AM test. It is now 8:45 AM and Sam has several options
available to get him to campus: waiting for the next bus, walking, riding his bike, or driving his car.
The bus is scheduled to arrive in 10 minutes, and it will take Sam exactly 20 minutes to get to his test
form the time he gets on the bus. However, there is 0.2 chance that the bus will be 5 minutes early,
0.3 chance that the bus will be 5 minutes late. If Sam walks, there is a 0.8 chance he will get to his
test in 30 minutes, and a 0.2 chance he will get there in 35 minutes. If Sam rides his bike, he will get
to the test in 25 minutes with probability 0.5, 30 minutes with probability 0.4, and there is 0.1
chance of a flat tire, causing him to take 45 minutes. If Sam drives his car to campus, he will take 15
minutes to get to campus, but the time needed to park his car and get to his test is given by the
following table:
Time to park and arrive (minutes)
10 15 20 25
Probability 0.30 0.45 0.15 0.10
Assuming that Sam wants to minimize his expected late time in getting to his test, draw a decision
tree and determine his best option.
3. Benson Electronics manufactures three components used to produce cellular telephones and other
communication devices. In a given production period, demand for the three components may
exceed Benson’s manufacturing capacity. In this case, the company meets demand by purchasing
the components from another manufacturer at an increased cost per unit. Benson’s manufacturing
cost per unit and purchasing cost per unit for the three components are as follows:
Source Component 1 Component 2 Component 3
Manufacture $4.50 $5.00 $2.75
Purchase $6.50 $8.80 $7.00
Manufacturing times in minutes per unit for Benson’s three department are as follows:
Department Component 1 Component 2 Component 3
Production 2 3 4
Assembly 1 1.5 3
Testing and Packaging 1.5 2 5
For the next production period, Benson has capacities of 360 hours in the production department, 250
hours in the assembly department, and 300 hours in the testing and packaging department.
A. Formulate a LP model that can be used to determine how many units of each component to
manufacture and how many units of each component to purchase. Assume that components
demands that must be satisfied are 6000 units for component 1, 4000 units for component 2
and 3500 for component 3. The objective is to minimize the total manufacturing and purchasing
cost.
B. What are the optimal units of components to manufacturing and purchasing?
C. Which departments are limiting Benson’s manufacturing quantities? Use the dual price to
determine the value of an extra hour in each of these departments.
D. Suppose that Benson had to obtain on additional unit of component 2. Discuss what the dual
price for the component 2 constraint tells us about the cost to obtain the additional unit.
4. A project has for activities (A,B,C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability
distribution for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:
Use the random numbers 0.1778, 0.9617, 0.6849, and 0.4503 to simulate the completion time of the
project in weeks.
Activity Activity Time (weeks) Probability
A
5 0.25
6 0.35
7 0.25
8 0.15
B
3 0.20
5 0.55
7 0.25
C
10 0.10
12 0.25
14 0.40
16 0.20
18 0.05
D 8 0.60
10 0.40