Asset Management Lecture 14. Outline for today Evaluating hedge funds Marking timing: are mutual...
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Transcript of Asset Management Lecture 14. Outline for today Evaluating hedge funds Marking timing: are mutual...
Outline for today
Evaluating hedge fundsMarking timing: are mutual funds
successful or not?Style analysis for mutual funds
Evaluating Hedge Funds
Hedge funds rarely serve as an investor’s overall
portfolio.Capture temporarily mispriced securitiesLess concerned with diversificationAlpha-drivenSharp-ratio is not appropriate for evaluation
Evaluating Hedge Funds
When mixing a hedge fund H with a baseline passive portfolio M, the optimal position of the H in the overall portfolio P would be
0
0
)1(1 HH
HH w
ww
2
20
)(
)(
M
M
H
H
H RE
ea
w
i
n
iiH w
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Evaluating Hedge Funds
When the hedge fund is optimally combined with the baseline portfolio, the improvement in the Sharpe measure will be determined by its information ratio:
2
2 2
( )H
P MH
S Se
An example of actual performance measurement
Which portfolio to choose?
•If the portfolio stands for the entire investment fund
•If the portfolio is only a subportfolio of a larger fund
•If this is an active portfolio to be mixed with the index
Difficulties in evaluating hedge funds
Risk profile and investment strategy change rapidly
Investment in illiquid assets: liquidity premium and pricing error
Long-term risk-returnSurvivorship bias
Market Timing
market timing involves shifting funds between a market-
index portfolio and a safe assetHigh-beta vs. low-beta strategy
Market Timing
Treynor and Mazuy:
Test for a group of mutual funds but found little evidence
2( ) ( )P f M f M f Pr r a b r r c r r e
Market Timing
Henriksson and Merton:
D is a dummy=1 for rM>rf
=0 other wise
Found that funds on average are poor at market timing.
( ) ( )P f M f M f Pr r a b r r c r r D e
Style Analysis
Introduced by W. Sharpe study of mutual fund performance
Regress fund returns on indexes of a range of assets Style: the regression coefficient on each index R2: percentage of return variability attributable to style 1-R2:
stock selection market timing (changes in asset-class weights)
Over 90% of variation in return could be explained by the funds’ allocations to bills, bonds and stocks
Style Analysis
An alternative performance evaluation based on CAPM
Comparison with CAPM:
CAPM Style
The market index Style indexes
Theoretically prescribed passive
portfolio
Closely tracks the fund’s activity
Example: Fidelity’s Magellan Fund
Conclusion:
The fund is well presented by three style portfolios.
But, do not underestimate the role of stock selection and market timing!
The intercept of the regression is actually 0.32% per month
Morningstar
Premier source of information on mutual funds
The risk-adjusted rating is ranked across funds in a style group and stars are awarded