Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of...
-
Upload
jayden-fisher -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
Transcript of Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of...
![Page 1: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty
Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17, 2009
![Page 2: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Volcanic Hazard
A volcanic hazard is any volcano-related phenomenon that threatens communities around a volcano
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristicsof the phenomenon, by the areas that they are expected to effect, by their magnitude and return period
Pyroclastic flow Lahar
![Page 3: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
<4 m
Health Hazards
Thanks to Claire Horwell
![Page 4: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Hazard and Risk assessment is needed:
• In periods of dormancy for development and implementationof mitigation strategies: planning of land-use, plans for emergency response, evacuation and relocation, preparedness,policy development for resilience
• In periods of unrest which might lead to an eruption and emergency
• During the eruption emergency: crisis management.
• After the eruption has finished or diminished in post emergency recovery and societal adjustments
![Page 5: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Monitoring, TechnologyForecasting
hours
Hekla, Iceland
Mount Redoubt, Alaska
![Page 6: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Location
![Page 7: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Destruction of Plymouth
![Page 10: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Hazards maps are determined by mapping of past volcanic
events and by modelling of the natural processes
Pyroclastic flow deposits Montserrat (1996-1997)
No flows
Pyroclastic flow models
Predicted FlowsYellow is unexpected flow
![Page 11: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
A hazards map depicts areas likely to be affected by future volcanic activity and related phenomena (e.g. pyroclastic flows)
Administrative zone maps aredeveloped from hazards map but may take account of other factors (e.g. roads, infrastructure, etc)
These maps used for planningand crisis management
![Page 12: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Uncertainty
• Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the LIKELIHOOD of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people
• Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood
• There are many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects
• Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, unknown unknowns
THE DESCRIPTION OF VOLCANIC HAZARDSIS THUS NECESSARILY PROBABILISTIC AND REQUIRES ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTIES
![Page 13: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Issues that arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties
• zonation maps require well-defined
boundaries for pragmatism• boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe• levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through concepts of vulnerability and risk • more data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, BUT can increase uncertainties• probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate
![Page 14: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Risk = Vulnerability x Hazard
Hazards are only of concern when they pose risks to communities
Vulnerability and Risk defined in terms of humans and society
![Page 15: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
6210'W
6210'W
16 45'N1645'N
NMontserrat
(UK Overseas Territory)
2 km
1000
1000
2000
1000
1000
1000
1000
2000
2000
1000
1000
Contour interval is 200 feet(metres = feet x 0.3048)
380000mE 385000mE
375000mE 380000mE 385000mE
1845000mN
1850000mN
1855000mN
1860000mN
1850000mN
1855000mN
1860000mN
F ort G haut
Aymer's Ghaut
F arm River
Paradiseer
Mos
quit
oG
hau
t
Bot
tom
less
G
haut
Collins
River
Soldier
G
Dyer's R
Nant River
BelhamR
Gingoes Ghaut
WhiteRive
r
Dry Ghaut
Pea
Gha
ut
Pelican GhautLaw
rs
R
Tuit
t's
Gha
utW
hite
'sG
ha
ut
Hot River
Tyre'sG
haut
Garibaldi Hill
RichmondHill
Fox's Bay
Cork Hill
St George's Hill
St Patrick's
Morris'
Tuitt's
Bethel
Farm
St John's
Mongo Hill
Gerald'sDavy Hill
Old TowneSalem
Frith
Iles Bay Windy Hill
Streatham
Dyer's
Farrell'sYard
White'sYard
PLYMOUTH
Old RoadBay
Roche'sBluff
W.H. BRAMBLEAIRPORT
Little Bay
Carr's Bay
Harris
1
2
3
4
main road
SOUFRIERE HILLS
SILVER HILL
Castle Peak
Chances PeakRoche's Mt
SOUTH SOUFRIE REHILLS
CENTREHILLS
Jack BoyHill
Gages Mt
LongGround
Katy Hill
Trant's
2000
Kinsale
esOlveston
Woodlands
ye
St Peter's
Riv
Spanish Point
Tar River Valley
5
43a3b
2
1
DTEZ
Fig. 4 Montserrat: population zones used for risk assessment modelling
Vulnerability
St Pierre, Martinique (1902) 29,000 people died from a pyroclastic flow
Typically volcanic vulnerability isdefined in terms of people living inarea under threat from volcanism
![Page 16: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Risk
Typically risk in volcanic crises is defined in terms of loss of life
Individual risk: the chances of an individual being killed
Societal risk: the chances of a society experiencing a certain number of deaths
Normally expressed as annualised probabilities (chances of being killed in a year)
These risks are not just determined by the hazard but are also influenced by human behaviour (e.g risk perceptions, denial, exaggeration of threat) and societal responses (e.g. land-use planning, evacuation, development strategies)
![Page 17: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
UK Individual Risk Scale
HIGH >1 in 100
MODERATE 1 in 100 to 1 in 1000
LOW 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10000
VERY LOW 1 in 10000 to 1 in 100000
MINIMAL 1 in 100000 to 1 in a million
Chief Medical Officer
![Page 18: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Output as Risk Curves
![Page 19: Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty Steve Sparks, University of Bristol, UK SAPPUR Workshop, Bristol Zoo, September 15-17,](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5515dddf55034638038b4ab0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The End